|Day's Range||0.009 - 0.009|
|52 Week Range||0.0087 - 0.0095|
Retail Sales have been supported for most of the year by the income gains generated by the tight job market so if there is a miss in the report, it will be to the upside. This could be bullish for the USD/JPY. Although it won’t affect next week’s Fed interest rate decision, it could have an impact on future rate cuts.
It’s risk-on through the Asian session as the markets respond to the ECB move. On the day ahead, the focus will be on Brexit and U.S retail sales figures.
So far this week, commodity currencies are shining as safe haven currencies are retreating on newfound optimism over US-China trade, Brexit, Hong Kong and central bank easing. But could this be sustained next week? The big focus will be on Thursday’s ECB meeting, which comes with updated staff projections and is widely expected to see the ECB introduce further easing measures.
Today’s European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate and monetary policy decisions could drive the USD/JPY even higher if they come out with an extremely dovish stimulus package. This could drive global equity markets higher, making the safe-haven Japanese Yen a less-desirable safe-haven asset.
Tensions between the U.S and China ease, supporting risk ahead of the heavily anticipated ECB monetary policy decision later today.
The US dollar continues to grind higher against the Japanese yen on Wednesday, reaching towards the ¥108 level. At this point, it looks like there is a lot of noise just above though, but we could continue going higher.
Asian markets are growing in the hope of stimulus, while Europe and the US are waiting for signals from the central banks. China continues to struggle for economic growth, as it aims to resist the effect of trade disputes with the U.S.
Bloomberg says the Bank of Japan (BOJ) may be considering a so-called reverse operation twist. “That’s where the central bank moves to cut short-term rates while supporting longer-term ones. In theory, it could head off yen appreciation, support institutional investors’ returns and boost bank stocks,” according to Bloomberg.
The US dollar rallied a bit initially during the trading session on Tuesday but started to run into trouble almost immediately. By doing so we are rolling over and it’s looking very likely that we are going to see a bit of a pullback at this point. Remember, this pair is highly sensitive to risk appetite.
Technically speaking, look for the USD/JPY to strengthen on a sustained move over 107.463, and to weaken on a sustained move under 106.890.
The two recent upside price spikes in the USD/JPY were fueled by comments on U.S.-China trade relations. The first rally from 104.463 on August 26 was triggered by President Trump’s remark that China was ready to negotiate. The second on September 5 was ignited by the announcement of the resumption of trade talks.
While German trade data could trouble the EUR, it’s all eyes on Parliament, which could be suspended as early as today. What’s next for Boris?
We’re not expecting too much of a reaction to Thursday’s U.S. Consumer Inflation Report (CPI) since a 25-basis point rate cut by the Fed later in the month has already been priced into the market. Traders are looking for a 0.1% increase. Core CPI is expected to have risen 0.2%.
Based on Friday’s close at 106.914, the direction of the USD/JPY on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the uptrending Gann angle at 106.963.
The Canadian Jobs data recorded upbeat reports, pleasing the traders. After testing the overhead 50-day SMA last day, the Ninja took a U-turn to the downside.
The US dollar initially tried to rally during the trading session on Friday but ran into a bit of a buzz saw of resistance at the ¥107 level. Because of this, it looks as if we are likely to stay range bound as the 50 day EMA is causing selling pressure.
The US dollar rallied for the week against the Japanese yen as the US/China trade relations seem to be falling a bit. That being the case, there was more of a “risk on” move overall.
Based on yesterday’s close at 106.941 and the current price action, the direction of the USD/JPY the rest of the session on Friday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the main 50% level at 106.890.
It’s nonfarm payrolls. Impressive figures today, following a jump in service sector activity could question whether the FED will deliver…
US stocks bounced coat-tailing a geopolitical relief rally after political tension in Hong Kong, Italy and UK eased while better macro data out of China and Europe has put to rest, albeit temporarily, some of more exaggerated economic doom and gloom scenarios that have been a constant sentiment sapper during the latest trade war impelled market maelstrom.
The US dollar continues to consolidate against the Japanese yen, as we see quite a bit of noise in this marketplace. This makes quite a bit of sense, because quite frankly the pair is very sensitive to risk appetite in general. With that being the case it’s likely that we continue to see a lot of noise.
It’s another big day ahead. MPs will likely push through legislation to prevent a no-deal Brexit. There’s also the BoC and stats to consider.