|Bid||32.64 x 900|
|Ask||0.00 x 1000|
|Day's Range||34.93 - 35.39|
|52 Week Range||32.63 - 43.66|
|Beta (3Y Monthly)||0.56|
|PE Ratio (TTM)||16.83|
|Earnings Date||Nov 6, 2019 - Nov 11, 2019|
|Forward Dividend & Yield||0.12 (0.34%)|
|1y Target Est||45.90|
(Bloomberg Opinion) -- There’s a Vegas-like quality to the Texas electricity market. Whereas other regions use factors like capacity payments to encourage new power plants, Texas relies on the spin of the wheel. If temperatures are hot enough, and the wind is calm enough, and enough power generators go offline unexpectedly, a scramble for power spurs prices from the usual range of $20 to $30 per megawatt-hour up to $9,000.And that’s what happened last week:Merchant generators in Texas play this slot machine, hoping for a handful of these windfalls. BloombergNEF estimates the state’s generators reaped $1.5 billion across just two days last week, equivalent to more than 10% of the money paid in the wholesale electricity market last year.The Electric Reliability Council of Texas, or Ercot, banks on such jackpots tempting developers to build more capacity. The mechanism works, more or less, but the inevitable lag between market signals and new construction can leave the power market dangerously close to shortages — and consequently the spikes. This is shown clearly in the reports Ercot publishes twice a year providing a forecast of the state’s “reserve margin,” or spare capacity. The target level is 13.75% of peak demand. Here are the forecasts for 2020 through 2023 taken from the May report over the past seven years:The latest forecasts suggest expectations are beginning to turn again. While the expected reserve margin for 2020 has shrunk further, it has expanded further out, moving back above the target level in 2021. That may prove optimistic.NRG Energy Inc., one of the biggest power generators and retailers in Texas, said on its recent earnings call that Ercot most likely overestimates new capacity and underestimates closings. As warnings go, this one is less a call to arms and more a pitch to buy; NRG’s plants should profit in a tighter, more volatile market. That said, it is safe to assume that much of the roughly 112 gigawatts of proposed projects — substantially bigger than the state’s total existing capacity — will not materialize. Less than a quarter of it had an agreement to hook plants into the grid signed at the end of July. Wind and solar projects dominate Texas’ pipeline and Greg Gordon, an analyst at Evercore ISI, typically discounts these by 35% and 75% respectively. He forecasts much tighter conditions in the medium term:In theory, this alternative view should spur new projects, especially solar farms. Hot, muggy days can mean air conditioners crank up just as the state’s formidable fleet of wind turbines slow for want of a breeze. Solar power, on the other hand, is tailor-made for those dog-day afternoons. But the state’s solar capacity of 1.9 gigawatts is low, and while there is a nominal 62 gigawatts in the works, most of it will never see the light of day. Tara Narayanan, a solar analyst for BloombergNEF, points to the impending roll-off of the investment tax credit for renewable projects as well as President Donald Trump’s tariffs on imported solar modules. Taken together, these mean the optimal window for building solar capacity approved before the end of 2019 is actually in 2022-2023, when developers can still utilize the highest tax credit while also purchasing equipment unburdened by the tariffs.(1) Ercot’s pipeline suggests perhaps 3.4 gigawatts of new solar capacity entering service by the end of next summer. Using that as a conservative estimate and plugging it into BloombergNEF’s U.S. “Power Mixer” tool, the result implies a cut to average peak summer prices in 2021 of almost $4 per megawatt-hour, knocking perhaps $270 million off fleet revenue. That’s unhelpful for merchant generators but hardly a game changer.Yet the game is changing at a broader level. Texas, like so many other power markets, is undergoing a transition. In addition to wind power, cheap shale gas pushes down on power prices while rising demand and the retirement of older thermal power plants offer support. Even if solar power has been slow to take hold, and reserve margins remain low, the Texas power market represents a gamble. After all, last week’s spike came after a months-long slump in power futures as expectations of a lucrative heat wave had declined. Similarly, while 2018’s summer was a hot one, there were no big price spikes that year. This is one reason, even with near-term reserve margins looking tight, investors have been reluctant to price that fully into generator stocks. It is also why, even with the prospect of markets remaining tight, there will be no wave of construction in big conventional plants. Solar’s quick lead times and the ability to scale up alongside demand is a structural advantage.The price volatility, and expectation of more, is spurring one important part of the market to take matters into its own hands: commercial and industrial customers. As even the likes of Exxon Mobil Corp. have discovered, a long-term renewable supply contract can deliver energy at stable prices, and the cost of such power continues to drop. Corporate power-purchase agreements signed in Texas this year are likely to surpass those for the entire U.S. just two years ago, according to BloombergNEF. Power producers in Texas should enjoy decent odds of more jackpots in the next few years, but the house is moving against them. (1) This assumes, of course, that neither the tax credit nor the tariffs are extended.To contact the author of this story: Liam Denning at email@example.comTo contact the editor responsible for this story: Daniel Niemi at firstname.lastname@example.orgThis column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.Liam Denning is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering energy, mining and commodities. He previously was editor of the Wall Street Journal's Heard on the Street column and wrote for the Financial Times' Lex column. He was also an investment banker.For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com/opinion©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
Spot power prices in Texas almost tripled to a record high for Friday as the state's grid operator took emergency measures for a second time this week to keep the lights on as consumers cranked up their air conditioners to escape a heat wave. The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), grid operator for much of the state, called on consumers to conserve energy and issued energy emergency alerts on Tuesday and Thursday after the shutdown of some generation and curtailment of some power lines caused reserves to fall. Next-day power prices at the ERCOT North hub soared from $265 per megawatt hour (MWh) for Thursday to $751 for Friday, their highest on record, according to Refinitiv data going back to 2010.
(Bloomberg) -- It may be time to start building power plants in Texas again.The state’s generators made a killing this week as unrelenting heat sent electricity prices skyrocketing to unprecedented levels, briefly blowing past a $9,000 a megawatt-hour ceiling. That put producers more than three-quarters of the way toward profits that the state’s power market monitor says could touch off a power plant build-out. And the region’s only halfway into the cooling season.“We need these kinds of days” to demonstrate that the state is ripe for new plants, Scott Burger, a energy research fellow at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, said in an interview.An expansion would make for a dramatic turnaround in the Lone Star State and stand in stark contrast to the glut of generation nationwide. The U.S. has become so awash in cheap natural gas and renewable power resources in recent years that electricity prices have, in some places, plunged below zero. This supply excess has forced massive, aging coal-fired power plants to retire, leaving a void that wind farms were expected to more than make up for in Texas.Texas, however, is facing record electricity demand, especially in the west where power-hungry shale drillers are exploring for oil and gas. And winds weren’t strong enough to rescue the region earlier this week as Dallas baked in 103-degree Fahrenheit (39-degree Celsius) weather. Generation from turbines has plunged for four straight days.“I like renewables and having our grid have a lot of wind in the mix,” said Campbell Faulkner, chief data analyst for commodities broker OTC Global Holdings. But to keep the system running, he said, Texas needs other power generation resources.The last gas-fired plant that came into service in the region was actually an old one that NRG Energy Inc. resurrected in May to cash in on the gain in power demand. Meanwhile, in the last six months of 2018, three gas-fueled projects and five wind projects were canceled. Another 2,485 megawatts of gas, wind and solar projects were delayed, according to grid operator Electric Reliability Council of Texas.Faulkner sees this week’s price spikes as a wake-up call for Texas, one that could bolster the case for a so-called capacity market in which power generators are paid to guarantee future supplies. “They are going to either have to move to a capacity-market style or you are going to see some weird things happen in the summer time,” he said.Houston remains under a heat advisory through 7 p.m. Wednesday, but the high likely won’t surpass 100 degrees, according to the National Weather Service. Electricity consumption is forecast to peak today at around 72,000 megawatts, Ercot said. That’s below the record set Monday of 74,531 megawatts.On Monday, wholesale power jumped 36,000% to average as much as $6,537.45 a megawatt-hour across the Texas grid. It surged more than 49,000% on Tuesday to hit the $9,000 price limit that Ercot set to avoid runaway prices under extreme circumstances. Other markets rode that surge, too. Futures prices for power next July and August also jumped to the highest in five months, and the Ercot North daily price settled at a record $1,400 a megawatt-hour Tuesday on the Intercontinental Exchange.The grid operator warned of power shortages on Tuesday. For the first time since January 2014, it declared an energy emergency, calling on all power plants to ramp up and asking customers to conserve. At one point on Tuesday afternoon, the region’s power reserves had dwindled to a record 2,121 megawatts, less than 3% of total demand on the system.One measure generators use to determine whether a new plant would be profitable jumped 51% this week to $63,051 per megawatt-year, shy of the $80,000 that Beth Garza, director of independent market monitoring for Ercot, said is needed by year-end to attract generation.“It’s evidence that the demand-supply situation is as close as it can get,” Garza said in an interview Wednesday. “Developers should be looking at this market.”(Updates with market monitor comment in 12th paragraph and updates figures in second and fourth paragraphs)To contact the reporters on this story: Christopher Martin in New York at email@example.com;Naureen S. Malik in New York at firstname.lastname@example.orgTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Lynn Doan at email@example.com, Catherine Traywick, Joe RyanFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
Spot power prices in Texas for Wednesday almost tripled after electricity demand hit record highs earlier this week and real-time prices briefly soared to $9,000 per megawatt hour as consumers cranked up air conditioners to escape a brutal heat wave. With less heat expected, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), grid operator for much of the state, projected demand would only reach around 71,800 megawatts (MW) Wednesday.
Demand for electricity in Texas on Tuesday will break a record high that was hit on Monday as consumers keep their air conditioners cranked up to escape a heat wave baking much of the U.S. Southeast, according to the state's power grid operator. The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), grid operator for much of the state, projected demand will rise over 75,100 megawatts (MW) on Tuesday, topping Monday's preliminary peak of 74,531 MW. One megawatt can power about 1,000 U.S. homes on average, but as few as 200 during periods of peak demand.
For the past seven months, Stream Energy GC Daniel Terrell was laser focused on his company’s $330 million sale to Houston-based utility NRG Energy. Terrell said the deal “was incredibly complex and challenging" in this exclusive interview with The Texas Lawbook.
Demand for electricity in Texas hit a record on Monday as consumers cranked up their air conditioners to escape a heat wave that is currently baking much of the Southeastern United States, according to the state's power grid operator. The U.S. National Weather Service issued heat advisories for much of the Southeast. The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), grid operator for much of the state, reported demand hit 74,531 megawatts (MW) at 5 p.m. CDT (2200 GMT) on Monday and could approach 75,000 MW on Tuesday.
Demand for electricity in Texas will reach record levels on Monday and Tuesday as consumers crank up their air conditioners to escape a heat wave baking much of the U.S. Southeast, according to projections by the state's power grid operator. High temperatures in Houston, Texas' biggest city, will hit 100 degrees Fahrenheit (38 Celsius) on Monday and Tuesday, according to AccuWeather forecasts. The normal high in Houston at this time of year is 96 F (36 C).
Demand for electricity in Texas will reach record levels next week as consumers crank up their air conditioners to escape a heat wave baking much of the state, according to projections by the state's power grid operator. High temperatures in Houston, Texas' biggest city, will near 100 degrees Fahrenheit (38 Celsius) every day through Wednesday, according to AccuWeather forecasts. The normal high in Houston at this time of year is 96 F (36 C).
The dust from last week's, and Monday's, meltdown is finally starting to settle, though that's not necessarily a sign that a recovery is nigh. The S&P 500 was up on Wednesday, but the 0.08% gain was far from inspirational, and the index is still on the wrong side of most of its moving averages.Source: Shutterstock Roku (NASDAQ:ROKU) helped set the tone, gaining more than 2% during the session in front of its post-close earnings report, and then soaring more than 10% in after-hours action after it topped earnings expectations. Lyft (NASDAQ:LYFT) and rival Uber Technologies (NYSE:UBER) were up firmly as well, with the former gaining more than 5% after the market closed thanks to record-breaking revenue underscored by raised guidance.There were just too many names like Bank of America (NYSE:BAC), though, holding the market back. BofA shares fell a couple of percentage points for no particular reason. Traders are simply concerned about the broad impact of a slowdown, and the rate-cut's potential toll on bank earnings.InvestorPlace - Stock Market News, Stock Advice & Trading Tips * 10 Internet Stocks Getting Hammered However, headed into Thursday's action, it's the stock charts of NRG Energy (NYSE:NRG), D. R. Horton (NYSE:DHI) and Cisco Systems (NASDAQ:CSCO) that deserve the closest looks. These are the names closest to critical tipping points, and could be trade-worthy. Cisco Systems (CSCO)Like most other stocks, and tech stocks in particular, Cisco Systems has been beaten up over the course of the past couple of weeks. Already vulnerable to profit-taking, it took little effort to pull the rug out from underneath it and drag CSCO stock under a couple of key moving average lines.That selling came to a halt at a suspiciously encouraging level though. While it's possible more breakdown could be ahead -- and it would be devastating -- the right backdrop could catapult this name higher again in a hurry. Click to Enlarge * The floor in question is around $51.20, marked in red on both stock charts. That's where shares bottomed in May, and where the white 200-day moving average line is now. * Although support has taken shape, there's still danger ahead. The bearish volume is swelling. That's evident on the daily chart, though the weekly chart's falling, sub-zero Chaikin line points to the same undertow. * Should the floor around $51.20 break, the next most likely support area is just above $40, where Cisco made a couple of key lows last year. D. R. Horton (DHI)The residential construction market is seemingly on the ropes. Home-price appreciation is slowing, and purchases are trending lower. Starts and permits are waffling as well. It doesn't feel like any homebuilding stocks should be doing well.The fact that D. R. Horton is not only surviving but thriving in such an environment, however, speaks volumes about the fact that things may not be as they seem. In fact, an already bullish DHI stock just worked its way into an even more bullish situation. * 7 Stocks the Insiders Are Buying on Sale * Click to EnlargeThe 2018 pullback from D. R. Horton shares, stemming from slowdown worries, has clearly been reversed. In fact, the upside-down head and shoulders pattern suggests DHI just started another bullish leg. * On the daily chart, shares have repeatedly found support at the gray 100-day and purple 50-day moving average lines. Most of those instances are highlighted. * Although arguably overbought in the near-term, the volume surge behind the buying in recent days, against a bearish tide, confirms the break above the neckline comes packed with at least a healthy degree of interest. NRG Energy (NRG)In late June, NRG Energy was featured as a name with quite a bit of upside potential. It had just completed a three-bar pattern, indicating a transition from a net-bearish to a net-bullish condition, and there was a massive amount of ground to reclaim.NRG stock even started to reclaim, but that effort petered out fairly early in July. It's what has happened in the meantime -- and yesterday in particular -- that suggests NRG Energy shares are just one more rough day away from stalling their way into a nosedive. * Click to EnlargeThe shape of Wednesday's bar is the red flag. It's a tall bar that widely engulfs Tuesday's action, and points it back into the wrong direction. The high-volume, intraday reversal is a hint of what traders think. * Bolstering the bearish case is how well, and persistently, NRG stock found technical resistance at its purple 50-day moving average line during the latter half of July, and again on Wednesday. * As the weekly chart shows, this is all just part of a breakdown of an uptrend that had been in place since early 2017. There's not any real technical support again until the $30.30 area.As of this writing, James Brumley did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities. You can learn more about James at his site, jamesbrumley.com, or follow him on Twitter, at @jbrumley. More From InvestorPlace * 2 Toxic Pot Stocks You Should Avoid * 10 Stocks to Buy on the Trade War Dip * The 5 Highest-Rated Dow Stocks Right Now * 4 Cybersecurity Stocks to Buy for Long-Term Gains The post 3 Big Stock Charts for Thursday: Cisco Systems, NRG Energy and D. R. Horton appeared first on InvestorPlace.
Spot power prices in Texas almost doubled for Wednesday on forecasts demand for electricity would hit record levels next week as consumers crank up their air conditioners to escape a heat wave baking much of the state. High temperatures in Houston, the biggest city in the Lone Star State, were expected to near 100 degrees Fahrenheit (38 Celsius) every day through Aug. 13, according to AccuWeather meteorologists. The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), grid operator for much of the state, forecast that heat would push peak demand to more than 74,200 megawatts (MW) on Aug. 12, which would top the current all-time high of 73,473 MW set on July 19, 2018.
NRG Energy (NYSE: NRG ) unveils its next round of earnings this Wednesday, August 7. Here is Benzinga's everything-that-matters guide for the earnings announcement. Earnings and Revenue Based on NRG Energy ...
Spot power prices in Texas almost tripled for Tuesday on forecasts demand for electricity would hit record levels over the next week as consumers crank up their air conditioners to escape a heat wave blanketing much of the state. High temperatures in Houston, the biggest city in the Lone Star State, were expected to reach almost 100 degrees Fahrenheit (38 Celsius) every day over the next week, according to meteorologists at AccuWeather. The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), the grid operator for much of the state, forecast that heat would push peak demand to more than 73,600 megawatts (MW) on Aug. 8 and over 75,300 MW on Aug. 12.
NRG Energy, Inc. will report Second Quarter 2019 financial results on Wednesday, August 7, 2019. Management will present the results during a conference call and webcast at 9:00 a.m.