Novavax, Inc. (NVAX)

I was in the US Novavax Prevent Trial with original shots in February 2021 and booster in January 2022. I took 3 antibody tests on my own for peace of mind - knowing if I had adequate antibody protection. The first lab test I took was shortly after the 2 initial Nvx-CoV2373 shots. I wanted to see if I got the vaccine or placebo and was protected prior to a spring break trip I was taking in March. My test came back positive - that antibodies against the SARS-Cov-2 spike protein receptor binding domain (RBD) were detected. On this first test, it just gave an antibody result of Positive and no levels were provided. I was happy to know I got the vaccine, not placebo and was protected for my trip. I took a second test 10 months later (just before Christmas) and my antibody result was 87.2 U/ml. The cut off for testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies is 0.8 U/ml . I was happy I had antibodies at 10 months and my levels were much higher than the cut off. Recently this month, I took a 3rd test (this was 4 months after my Novavax booster) and my antibody test results read at 24,808 U/ml - 284 times what it read at in December. My wife said she is going to check tonight to see if I glow in the dark with antibodies. I'm excited again knowing this as I'm getting ready to take another vacation. A few follow up facts...I have not ever been infected with Covid. I avoided contracting it 3 times (including recently within the last few weeks) when my family tested positive. My family contracted it in July, December, and May. I was hacked on during this time and did not get sick. I'm looking forward to Novavax getting approved here in the US. It will get approved! It is way too good not to. My family is holding out for Novavax to get revaccinated. Folks, this is the real deal!!!!

There are 5 Novavax clinics across Toronto. You can reach the booking site at tphbookings dot ca (Toronto Public Health) and it is easy to book or cancel appmts. All you need is an email address no login required. The clinics are only open once a week usually Thursdays. But when you go for your appmt, they ask for your Ontario health card so I am not sure if out of province or country are allowed. At your appmt, they give you this two page info sheet and it does indeed say mRNA shots are recommended over nvax. I've had my first dose of nvax (never been mrna'd before or viral vectored thank god) and mostly just had minor injection site (shoulder) soreness for 2 or 3 days. I feel like the uptake in these clinics is not so high though. Partly I think it is because nobody knows about Novavax here. Second I think most people tend to get boosters of the same type as their primary series. The uptake of nvax seems to be highest in South Korea. I think this is due to first they make it themselves. Made in your own country is a big thing. Second, I am really impressed with the way SK Bioscience have packaged it as individual per-person shots. Here in Canada we have the ten-dose vials (probably Covovax). Once you open a vial you've got to have ten people come in that day to avoid wastage.

What is the probability that we will be trading at a PE of 8 later this year ($180)? Here are my forecasts:

Catalysts
1. New variants keep popping up in the unvaccinated world (95%)
2. Meeting the forecasted earnings of $23/share with FDA EUA and orders from GAVI (90%)
3. Nanoflu/covid combo shot being approved by 2024 (85% chance)
4. War is over in 2023 (65% chance)
5. Economy does not go into recession in 2023 (50% chance)
6. Beating earnings estimates for this year (25% chance)

Risks
1. World war (1%)
2. Covid magically disappearing (1%)
3. Corbevax or some oral vaccine taking majority of the market share in 2023 (5%)
4. Nanoflu/covid combo shot being rejected by FDA and rest of world (15%)

So, worst case, there is still a 78% chance that we will be $180-200 by end of year. All my opinion...

In My Opinion, based on current events:
1. Covid is not going anywhere.
2. The pandemic continues and is worldwide.
3. We now have to worry about our children getting hepatitus which is linked to Covid as cases are
increasing worldwide. We didn't have to worry about this in previous virus mutations; now we do.
4. CDC now recommends ALL USA domestic travelers get tested for Covid-19 before a trip - regardless of
vaccination status. (hmmmm.. seems like bigger Government moves will be coming at some point as the Covid forrest fire just can't be put out.)
5. Vaxed and boosted, double boosted people are still getting Covid and spreading Covid. At my workplace in NJ Covid is rampant. (oh, and by the way, my company mandated everyone get vaxed or fired, new hires need a vax as a condition of employment.)
6. Seems like the USA and the rest of the world need a vaccine with better efficacy and longer lasting
protection.... I wonder if one exists??? WAIT, there is. The FDA is working day and night, non-stop since the
end of January 2022 going over the "complicated" data from NOVAVAX before they think about
approving.... At this rate, North Korea may be using Novavax before USA citizens at it was offered to them
by South Korea. Meanwhile, back at the FDA ranch, they just approved a mRNA booster
for the 5-11 age group knowing the efficacy and duration of coverage is short lived. I wonder how long the FDA took to go through all the "complicated" data supplied by pfizer; WAIT, I know. It took about 20 minutes during their lunch break..APPROVED.
7. Novavax is the only option to be used at this point. We already know the other options have failed miserably and the pandemic continues. Now our children are at risk because of failed policies and cronyism. Do the right thing for those in charge at the FDA, USA GOV. ETC. Oh, by the way. Where are you getting the baby food you are flying in??? I am sure you have evaluated and fully inspected the factories making he products; you know that little thing called quality control??? Nah, I doubt they did.

4 Growth Stocks Billionaire Money Managers Piled Into During the First Quarter - YF
By Sean Williams - May 19, 2022 at 5:06AM
"..........
Biotech-stock Novavax (NVAX 0.31%) is another growth stock that billionaire fund managers bought hand over fist in the first quarter. Philippe Laffont of Coatue Management, Englander's Millennium Management, and Griffin's Citadel Advisors were all buyers. Respectively, these funds purchased 883,400 shares, 609,300 shares, and 484,600 shares in the first quarter.
......"