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QUALCOMM Incorporated (QCOM)

NasdaqGS - NasdaqGS Real Time Price. Currency in USD
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133.69+2.49 (+1.90%)
At close: 4:00PM EDT
132.74 -0.95 (-0.71%)
After hours: 05:01PM EDT
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  • G
    Greg
    Gee could we be in for an earnings surprise????????
    Samsung Tops Profit Estimates After Chip Crunch Lifts Prices
    Samsung Electronics Co. third-quarter profit exceeded analysts’ estimates after a prolonged semiconductor shortage boosted prices of memory and system chips that go into computers and mobile devices.

    Net income rose to 12.06 trillion won ($10.3 billion) in the three months ended September, South Korea’s largest company said in a statement on Thursday. Analysts predicted 11.54 trillion won on average, according to estimates compiled by Bloomberg. Samsung disclosed preliminary numbers earlier this month, including a more than 25% increase in operating profit.

    The world’s biggest maker of memory chips and smartphones has benefited from strong demand as the global economy recovers from the Covid-19 pandemic, with rising semiconductor prices providing an added boost. Still, memory-chip prices may start to cool this quarter as customers are less anxious to place new orders after stockpiling inventories.
    Bullish
  • E
    Erik
    A possible explanation why QCOM is underperforming despite all positives that are expressed on this board is what BofA is saying. QCOM is a company that is a good idea to sell during October for many funds, in order to claim tax loss. The same article says that those companies (13 are mentioned) will likely rally after Oct 31!
    https://www.thestreet.com/investing/qualcomm-fedex-bofa-list-tax-beneficiaries?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO
    Bank of America identifies 13 stocks that may suffer from tax-loss selling through Oct. 31 and then rebound afterward.
    Bank of America identifies 13 stocks that may suffer from tax-loss selling through Oct. 31 and then rebound afterward.
    www.thestreet.com
  • k
    kastenz
    TEL AVIV, Israel, Oct. 26, 2021 /PRNewswire/ -- Quantum Machines, creator of the first universal quantum computing cloud infrastructure, today announced an investment from Qualcomm Ventures LLC. The investment in Quantum Machines is the first by Qualcomm Ventures in the Quantum Computing space and is an extension of the company's Series B round announced earlier this year. PR Newswire.
  • K
    Kingspellchecker
    From a sponsored Tech Crunch article a few months ago - but worth reading to understand what you are invested in.

    In September of 1882, Thomas Edison flipped a switch inside his Pearl Street Station, delivering electricity to 3,000 incandescent light bulbs across Lower Manhattan and igniting a revolution of interconnected technology. Nearly a century and a half later, 5G is on the verge of a similar transformative moment, ushering in a new era in which everybody and everything will be connected, driving a digital transformation of all industries, in all corners of the globe.

    This digital transformation is on a scale like we’ve never seen before, and 5G is the key ingredient fueling it. Unlike the G’s before it, 5G is the first generation of mobile technology designed to go beyond the smartphone. It is networks for all devices and industries, ranging from computers and XR headsets to factories and farms.

    No industry will be left untouched, including automotive, which is already in the midst of its digital transformation. Carmakers are working to phase out the internal combustion engine. They are connecting the car to other cars and its surrounding environment. And to support this, they are integrating advanced technologies, such as always connected, high performance, power efficient systems that are entirely transforming the driving experience.
  • G
    Grayson
    I am confused by Rich's remark. 6 months from now (mid 2022) supply chain will be in much better shape. Also, they clearly indicated that they secured supply from primary and secondary nodes so they would have s meaningful increase in their supply chain by year end. This was stated earlier in the year and has not be retracted. So unless demand falls, why would they see a contraction in earnings?? Why would they start introducing lower priced Snapdragon chipsets for mid price phones if they had supply constraints. They can "sell everything they produce". I guess we will know next week.
  • G
    Greg
    Qualcomm has announced four new chipsets which are the Snapdragon 778G Plus, 695, 680, and 480 Plus. The new chipsets will offer more options to device manufacturers while choosing a Snapdragon processor, which could also help the company better compete with rival MediaTek........... https://indianexpress.com/article/technology/tech-news-technology/qualcomm-snapdragon-778g-plus-480-plus-695-680-announced-all-you-need-to-know-7593079/ 
    Here's what's new with the four additions to Qualcomm's Snapdragon lineup.
    Here's what's new with the four additions to Qualcomm's Snapdragon lineup.
    indianexpress.com
  • B
    Bruce
    5G Device Ecosystem – Executive Summary – October 2021
    The number of announced 5G devices continues to rise and has now passed the 1000 mark for the first time. There are now 1060 announced 5G devices, an increase of 21.4% in the last quarter. Of these devices, 66.4% are understood to be commercially available. The number of commercial 5G devices has grown by 26.4% over the last three months. For the first time, the number of 5G devices understood to be commercially available has passed 700 to reach a total of 704 devices.
    By end-September 2021, GSA had identified:
    •          twenty-two announced form factors.
    •          one hundred and fifty-eight vendors who had announced available or forthcoming 5G devices.
    •          one thousand and sixty announced devices (including regional variants, but excluding operator-branded devices that are essentially rebadged versions of other phones), including 704 that are understood to be commercially available:
    o          five hundred and twenty-three phones (up 45 from August), at least 459 of which are now commercially available (up 35 in a month).
    o          one hundred and eighty-eight FWA CPE devices (indoor and outdoor), at least of which 89 are now commercially available.
    o          one hundred and thirty-eight modules.
    o          seventy industrial/enterprise routers/gateways/modems.
    o          forty-six battery operated hotspots.
    o          twenty-three tablets.
    o          nineteen laptops (notebooks).
    o          eleven in-vehicle routers/modems/hotspots.
    o          eight USB terminals/dongles/modems.
    o          thirty-four other devices (including drones, head-mounted displays, robots, TVs, cameras, femtocells/small cells, repeaters, vehicle OBUs, a snap-on dongle/adapter, a switch, a vending machine and an encoder).
    o          five hundred and eighty-eight announced devices with declared support for 5G standalone in sub-6 GHz bands, 410 of which are commercially available.
    Not all devices are available immediately and specification details remain limited for some devices.
    5G Device Ecosystem – Executive Summary – October 2021
  • K
    Kingspellchecker
    Now that 5G phones are more affordable, Qualcomm wants to make those low-cost devices more desirable. The company has introduced three new systems-on-chip that all promise improved performance for budget 5G hardware. The star is easily the Snapdragon 695. This 6nm-based sequel to the 690 adds much faster millimeter wave 5G (important for carriers like AT&T and Verizon) while delivering up to 30 percent faster graphics and 15 percent speedier CPU tasks. Your next mid-range phone might be that much better-suited to gaming and giant downloads.

    The Snapdragon 480 Plus and 778G Plus, meanwhile, are iterations of the 480 and 778G that deliver minor gains to CPU and GPU performance through increased clock speeds. Think of them as tune-ups for entry-level and upper-mid-range phones, respectively — you won't have to make do with a chip several months old.

    There's also a lone LTE chip, the Snapdragon 680, that shares the 695's 6nm process without the added costs of 5G. It's aimed at markets where 5G service is either limited or too expensive.

    All four parts are due to reach shipping products before the end of 2021. Honor, Motorola, Nokia (that is, HMD Global), Oppo, Vivo and Xiaomi all expect to use one or more of the new Snapdragons in their phones.

    There's a pragmatism at work. The 6nm parts (including the 778G Plus) help Qualcomm continue to serve a large chunk of the smartphone market despite limited supplies of 5nm parts like the 780G. It doesn't have to rely on truly old process lStill, it's notable that the chip maker is launching so many speed-bumped chips in the first place — the company is clearly determined to fend off heavyweights like MediaTek that thrive on budget and mid-range hardware.
  • R
    Rich
    Tom, I understand what you’re saying, but the fact is that Apple is 18% of Qualcomm business. Apple doesn’t use their Snapdragon chips, did you not know this? Apple has their own processor and so a modem as you know is built entirely different then a processor with reference to Snapdragon which does in a lot of cases incorporate their modem as well, but we are talking different capacity requirements when it comes to the two technologies
  • c
    chester
    There will be a big surprise on ER day. There’s a reason why the company is buying back a lot of shares, not just because of its discounted price, but a looming exponential growth.
  • K
    Kingspellchecker
    We may test that resistance again at 133. Will we break through today? The only thing that gives me hope is that Rich is posting again - seems every time he shows up and predicts a fall we go higher.
  • E
    Erik
    My Testimony about Qualcomm

    This post is divided into:
    1. What Qualcomm used to be, until recently
    2. What Qualcomm is now
    3. What Qualcomm will develop into

    1. What Qualcomm was until recently:
    Qualcomm has, for decades been a leader in the development of foundational cellular technology, which has given it the right to charge license fees on all phones, all brands, smart or not, that use 3G, 4G and 5G technology, this meaning, pretty much all phones that exist. This was a good business with super high margins.

    Qualcomm has also used its superior inside knowledge about those standards, in order to develop the (by far) best modems in the business, and for the last decade developed SoCs that besides the modem, includes pretty much all intelligence on the phones.

    Though successful, here has been a couple of downsides to this strategy:
    a) Smartphones turned into a stagnant business in the late 2010’s,
    b) Their licence model was challenged by for example Apple, Huawei and FTC.
    c) More than 90% dependence on cellular phones.

    While Qualcomm was a money-making machine with cool dividends, their stagnant growth and constant challenges to their licencing created the perception of a company at war with its large customers, so it kept the stock from taking off. Many investors unfortunately still think of them that way.

    2. What Qualcomm is now

    In the last few years, the picture has changed greatly, driven primarily by:

    a) Settlements and wins with Apple, Huawei and FTC
    b) The emergence of 5G
    c) Qualcomm focus on high growth product lines besides smartphones.

    Some detail:
    a) Especially FTC dropping its lawsuit entirely after the appeals court ruling as well as the Apple settlement were hugely important for Qualcomm. Sure, some countries or entities may fuss a little and create some relatively minor troubles, but when it comes to license fees, the sailing will be much smoother going forward.

    b) In general, investors don’t understand just how complex 5G modems are, and how far ahead Qualcomm are any other company. It is a joke to believe that Apple, with their acquired Intel failed modem division, would have a product ready by 2023 as some “analysts” seem to believe. It will likely take 5years or more. Also, MediaTek lags far behind, and are confined to low end phones.

    As Qualcomm is stating, and the numbers show, 5G unit prices are about 50% higher than 4G. Evidence: QCOM handset sales first 9 months FY2021 are $12,14 vs $7,46B same period FY2020 .

    There is also an ongoing windfall, from Huawei, who used other suppliers than QCOM, has exited the handphone business, and that market is mainly taken over by QCOMs best customers Xiaomi, Oppo, Vivo and Honor, the guys that buy Qualcomm’s excellent complete SoC’s, and together supply about 45-50% of all 5G phones. This transition will be noticeable in the next few quarters. Margins are enhanced by the ongoing gradual introduction of mmWave.

    c) New High Growth Products – Recent high growth product are divided into 3 segments:

    - IOT (Internet of Things) – This segment increased a whopping 83% y/y for the last quarter and is now the largest area outside of handsets with 1,40B in quarterly sales. It includes high growth areas like computing, industrial, and edge networking.
    - RFFE – In this area Qualcomm has grown from a minor player to the largest supplier in the world in just a couple of years. It grew 87% in the first 9 months this year. Qualcomm expects continued high growth there with integrated system designs, using its strong market position to sell systems to existing customers.
    - Auto – Probably the most exiting future area of the company. It grew 60% y/y first 9 months this year, Qualcomm has an order book of about 10 BUSD and has 23 of the the 26 leading auto brands as its customers already. The recent acquisition of Veoneer’s ADAS properties positions QCOM well to become the world leading supplier in automated driving functionality.

    Total sales this year (FY21) will exceed 33B according to Yahoo Finance consensus compared to last year just 21,7B. Next year sales is estimated at 36,6B, but estimates are bumped up each quarter, and based on the developments outlined above, sales should be around 42B and EPS around $12 rather than current consensus of $9.28.

    3. What Qualcomm will develop into
    QCOMs handset business growth will eventually slow, even though gradual growth of mmWave can counter-balance that. However, other fast growing segments will be more than 50% of the business soon. Margins are higher there. Auto is hugely exciting after Veoneer is integrated.

    Therefore I predict that EPS will grow to $15 per share in 2023, and onward to $18 per share in 2024.

    Bottom Line

    As it becomes clear that Apple are nowhere near launching their own iPhone modem, and also clear how QCOM growth businesses are taking over, forward PE should rise from todays 14 to somewhere between 25 and 30. This makes me expect a stock price of 375 to 540 in 2-3 years’ time.
    Bullish
  • B
    Bruce
    Mr Market time to pay attention.....

    That being said, there was another big mobile semis story this week. Qualcomm unveiled its new RF chips. We have written a lot about Qualcomm’s dramatic change of fortunes in the RF space (and here and here). Put simply, Qualcomm has gone from almost a joke in RF to a powerhouse. They have had the capabilities to build RF products for over a decade, but it took them a long time to get the organization to the right place, and now that they have, they are firing on all cylinders.

    In particular, they launched a new line of filters. RF modules on phones are a collection of parts: filters; power amplifiers (PA); and a bunch of other stuff (these things are pretty complicated). Since the launch of 4G, which brought a lot of new spectrum bands into play, we have been living in a Golden Age of RF content in phones, and nowhere is that more true than with filters. With phones tapping into all sorts of radio frequencies, and with many of those frequencies laying pretty close to each other filter requirements have gone way up. Leading filter makers like Broadcom, Murata and Qorvo (in that order) have done very well. But now, just like everyone else in RF, they have to contend with Qualcomm looking to eat their lunch.

    In all fairness, we still do not know a lot about the new Qualcomm chips. Filters are very difficult to manufacture profitably, the manufacturing process is very challenging with very tight specs. So we do not yet know how well these product will do commercially, but our sense is that they would not have launched them if they had not already gotten these to a fairly mature stage. Note they are already sampling these to customers with volume production expected later next year.

    All of this is bad news for the other filter makers, but it is also likely good news for companies like Rubicon who we suspect are providing the specialized SOI wafers for Qualcomm’s RF line and Global Foundries who has built a nice SOI foundry business.

    But as we were reading this, we realized there are broader implications. For years, Qualcomm has had to use its core modem and AP business lines to “encourage” customers to buy its lagging RF products. But now the tables may be finally reversing, whereby the RF products can help pull customers to other Qualcomm parts. (We say finally because this was the original promise of Qualcomm entering the market ten plus years ago.) Qualcomm’s RF products may be able to not only expand Qualcomm’s Total Addressable Market (TAM), but may also start protecting the core product lines.

    Qualcomm has a big advantage in the RF market. Because they make all the chips in the phone related to communication (i.e. everything but the screen and memory), they can tightly couple their RF products to the compute engine in the AP. This gives “intelligence” (or at least digital logic) to the RF chain which can have a big impact on the performance of the phone. Go back to that Ars article about Google’s Tensor, a lot of the same thinking applies here to the way that well designed compute can have an impact on other parts of the phone. In Qualcomm’s case, this can go even further. Using digital logic and a lot of tricky design work, Qualcomm’s integrated RF chain can actually reduce the filter requirement of a phone (among many other enhancements). So in the hypothetical case where Qualcomm’s new RF chips are maybe not quite as good as other companies’ filters, they can likely make up for the shortfall with this integration. This fully integrated RF Front End (RFFE) has long been the Holy Grail of RF companies, and Qualcomm is likely on the cusp of delivering that. They have already demonstrated one for fixed wireless access points, and if we had to guess we would say that Qualcomm is probably going to announce a fully mobile version at next year’s Mobile World Congress (if the show happens).

    The importance of this extends beyond the RF space. If Qualcomm can really deliver on this (and by no means is it certain) then they will once again have a differentiated product, something that no one else has. This will be trouble for their arch-nemesis Mediatek whose market share this has overtaken Qualcomm for the first time. Mediatek has some RF assets, but lags considerably. But this is also important for the smartphone makers. All the leading smartphone makers have now been forced to build their own APs, with Apple going so far as to build its own modems, but none of them can make RF products. If Qualcomm’s RF products are as good as they could be, their customers will have to rethink their AP plans. They will turn to Qualcomm’s AP because it will be able to deliver far superior RF performance. In theory, Apple with a few hundred billion dollars in cash on its books could build its own RF chips, but it would take a long time to get there, certainly beyond the 2024 timeline when everyone thinks they will have their own modem. If they really wanted to avoid Qualcomm, Apple wou
  • S
    SamIAm
    CNBC just compared performance of QCOM vs AVGO. AVGO up 20% ytd and QCOM down 13%
  • G
    Greg
    Qualcomm Upgrades Mobile Roadmap to Deliver Increased Capabilities Across Snapdragon 7, 6 and 4 Series

    https://www.qualcomm.com/news/releases/2021/10/26/qualcomm-upgrades-mobile-roadmap-deliver-increased-capabilities-across
  • R
    Rich
    Johns. You have to be realistic here. The market looks six months ahead. So let’s go back and look at Q2 and Q3 earnings, they were great and the stock is lower today then six month ago. I believe the reason for this is because it knows there will not be a big beat this quarter and guidance for Q1 will be soft in terms of the $2.60 analysts currently have. There is 0 reason for the PE contraction that has gone on now for the last 6-9 months other then a light beat when they report and poor guidance. When the CFO was interviewed, I believe like six weeks ago, he really focused the supply they’ll have , being in good shape come the December quarter. I should have seen this as a sign that this report upcoming will be just ok, not great. I believe the market already knows this and also believe it’s looking out six months from now, extrapolating even Q2 numbers. Unfortunately, I don’t see Qualcomm stock moving until sometime in February, where it will then really turn, but that’s if the economy remains ok as you know. Currently, our President is trying to destroy this country by many different measures. Keep that factor in mind as well when it comes to the stock market over the next 6-12 months
  • s
    stefanos
    AMD reported stellar earnings. QCOM will blow away estimates. The difference between the two is that AMD is already prized sky high while QCOM is priced laughably low. It is coming boys and girls.
  • K
    Kingspellchecker
    HELSINKI/STOCKHOLM (Reuters) - Nokia reported a stronger-than-expected third-quarter operating profit on Thursday on higher demand for 5G gear, but warned the global shortage of semiconductors would hit its supply chain.
    (Note: What QCOM did early on to mitigate their supply chain constraints was brilliant. 5G is not slowing down is the message here)
  • S
    SamIAm
    This is so frustrating. Luckily I have AVGO AMD and NVDA but my bulk ownership is QCOM. Can't seem to make any headway.
  • h
    hehe
    after buyback announcement, the volume is significantly reduced. it is curious.
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