|Bid||56.15 x 900|
|Ask||56.26 x 1100|
|Day's Range||54.99 - 57.04|
|52 Week Range||48.56 - 76.50|
|Beta (3Y Monthly)||1.68|
|PE Ratio (TTM)||N/A|
|Earnings Date||Jan 29, 2019 - Feb 4, 2019|
|Forward Dividend & Yield||2.48 (4.27%)|
|1y Target Est||68.50|
Verizon (VZ) widens its lead over rivals in the race to 5G service and is expected to be the first to offer a 5G upgrade-able smartphone on its network in 2019.
The launch of the SIM-free iPhone XR in the U.S. is faster than typical SIM-free iPhone releases. AAPL typically waits a few months before releasing the SIM-free versions of its smartphones in the U.S. This launch allows customers to buy an iPhone XR without having to first tie it down to a mobile carrier.
Previously, we saw that Qualcomm (QCOM) stock doesn’t show technical weakness even though it fell below its 200-day moving average, which indicates that the stock has growth potential. When the stock momentum is skewed towards one direction, there’s a point when it becomes oversold or overbought. In order to understand investors’ sentiment, we’ll discuss Qualcomm’s 14-day RSI (relative strength index), which measures the intensity of investors’ sentiment. In the two downtrends we talked about in the first part of the series, Qualcomm’s RSI fell below 30 in three instances.
Qualcomm (QCOM) stock was very volatile in the first ten months of 2018 due to macro and company-specific factors. Three companies that influenced Qualcomm stock were Intel (INTC), Apple (AAPL), and NXP Semiconductors (NXPI). Among the four stocks, Qualcomm was the most volatile with a three-year monthly beta of 1.68—compared to Intel’s 0.8, Apple’s 1.21, and NXP Semiconductors’ 1.14.
Qualcomm (QCOM) is one of the companies that has been impacted the most. During fiscal 2018 ending in September, Qualcomm stock fell as low as $48.56 and rose as high as $76.5—its 18-year high. During this time period, Qualcomm stock fell 27% and reached its 52-week low, while the VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF (SMH) fell 9%.
In the previous article, we learned that Qualcomm’s (QCOM) revenue has fallen and its operating expenses have risen in the last two years as Apple (AAPL) has halted royalty payments and filed lawsuits against it. The high cost of litigation and the removal of revenue from Apple caused Qualcomm’s non-GAAP (generally accepted accounting principles) operating margin to contract from 35% in the first quarter of fiscal 2017 to 22% in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2018.
Qualcomm’s (QCOM) business model is divided into two segments: the chipset business, which sells cellular chips and processors to smartphone makers, and the licensing business, which licenses its patents to smartphone makers. Between the first quarter of fiscal 2017 and the fourth quarter of fiscal 2018, Qualcomm’s operating expenses increased from $1.46 billion to $1.84 billion, while its revenue fell from $6.0 billion to $5.8 billion, increasing its operating expense ratio from 24% to 32% during the period. This rise shows the impact of the Apple dispute on Qualcomm.
Can Apple Survive Its Stagnating iPhone Unit Sales? While Huawei and Samsung (SSNLF) have been publicly discussing their plans for 5G (fifth-generation) phones, Apple (AAPL) has been mostly quiet on the issue. Last year, the Federal Communications Commission granted Apple permission to test 5G technology, suggesting that the company was considering a 5G iPhone down the road.
Qualcomm’s (QCOM) fiscal 2018 fourth-quarter revenue beat analysts’ estimate, but its fiscal 2019 first-quarter revenue guidance missed analysts’ estimate. Because the quarter’s sales will be largely influenced by Apple (AAPL). In the first quarter of fiscal 2019, Qualcomm expects to report revenue of $4.5 billion–$5.3 billion, lower than analysts’ consensus estimate of $5.57 billion.
For instance, it withdrew from its acquisition of NXP Semiconductors (NXPI) and fended off its acquisition by Broadcom. Although these actions removed uncertainty from Qualcomm’s business, they had a negative impact on the company’s fiscal 2018 fourth-quarter earnings and guidance. In the fourth quarter of fiscal 2018, Qualcomm’s revenue fell 3.3% YoY (year-over-year) but rose 3.6% sequentially to $5.8 billion, higher than analysts’ consensus estimate of $5.5 billion and on the higher end of its guided range.
On Qualcomm’s (QCOM) fiscal 2018 fourth-quarter earnings call, CFO George Davis stated that the handset market has weakened over the last year. The company is looking to diversify its revenue streams in two ways: firstly by offering different smartphone technologies, such as RFFE (radio frequency front-end) and fingerprint scanners to increase the number of components per device, and secondly by entering adjacent markets such as connected cars. Qualcomm continues to offer its Snapdragon 800 processors for premium phones and has added Snapdragon 700 for high-end phones.
The FCC has initiated the first-ever high-band 5G spectrum auction last week in order to gain an upper hand over China in the 5G race.
5G (fifth-generation) technology is Qualcomm’s (QCOM) silver lining in the troubled smartphone market, where its business model is facing several legal and regulatory issues. Qualcomm has been in a licensing dispute with its core customer, Apple (AAPL), since January 2017, and this has escalated to ~100 litigations across the world. As the lawsuits are ongoing, Apple has withheld royalty payments until a settlement is reached.
This month, Apple published 10 job listings on its website for chip design-related positions located in the city, marking the first time the Cupertino, California-based technology giant has publicly recruited for such roles in the Southern California hotbed for chip design. Apple is advertising for engineers to work on multiple types of chip components, including engineers to work on the company’s Neural Engine artificial intelligence processor and wireless chips. Apple is seeking hardware and software engineers to work on wireless components, implying that it may be adding a new location for its efforts to produce wireless chips.
On Qualcomm’s (QCOM) fiscal 2018 fourth-quarter earnings call, CEO Steven Mollenkopf, stated that the company’s first priority for fiscal 2019 would be the transition to 5G (fifth-generation) technology. Mollenkopf believes that the 5G ecosystem is far bigger than 3G (third-generation) or 4G (fourth-generation) technology because 5G will go beyond faster network technology to facilitate a connected world in which all industries—from automotive to manufacturing to healthcare—will use 5G-enabled services. According to a study commissioned by Qualcomm, 5G-enabled services will create an economic opportunity of up to $12.3 trillion from various industries by 2035.
Shorting a stock, also called short selling, is a trading skill used by investors that can provide big returns when done right but involves big risks.
Qualcomm’s (QCOM) fiscal 2018, which ended in September, was an extraordinary year for the company, and it featured some headline-making events. The year started with Broadcom (AVGO) making a hostile takeover bid for Qualcomm in November 2017. In the next chapter, Qualcomm walked away from its acquisition of NXP Semiconductors (NXPI) in July 2018 after the deal got caught up in the US-China (FXI) trade war.
Verizon (VZ) widens its lead over rivals in the race to 5G service and is expected to be the first to offer a 5G upgradeable smartphone on its network in 2019.
Verizon, Motorola, Qualcomm and Samsung announced that they've achieved the world's first 5G data transmission to a smartphone using a "commercial 3GPP 5G New Radio (NR) network." How'd they do it? Using a Moto Z3 with a 5G Moto Mod attached, which is scheduled to become available when its service for phones starts in 2019. Verizon kicked in the spectrum and network, Samsung made the radio, Motorola obviously built the phone and it's Qualcomm's Snapdragon X50 5G modem inside that little backpack.
In 2016, South Korea’s antitrust regulators required Qualcomm to license its technology to competitors. Qualcomm’s management keeps reiterating that it’s looking to resolve the licensing issue with Apple, but a Reuters article citing a source familiar with the matter has stated that a settlement is nowhere in sight. Apple ditched Qualcomm’s modem in favor of Intel’s (INTC) modem for its 2018 iPhone models, which would slash more than $750 million from Qualcomm’s chipset revenue in the first quarter of fiscal 2019.