SHOP - Shopify Inc.

NYSE - NYSE Delayed Price. Currency in USD
-6.25 (-3.05%)
At close: 4:02PM EDT
Stock chart is not supported by your current browser
Previous Close205.00
Bid0.00 x 900
Ask0.00 x 1800
Day's Range198.61 - 204.69
52 Week Range112.50 - 209.59
Avg. Volume1,391,959
Market Cap21.983B
Beta (3Y Monthly)1.86
PE Ratio (TTM)N/A
EPS (TTM)-0.61
Earnings DateApr 30, 2018 - May 4, 2018
Forward Dividend & YieldN/A (N/A)
Ex-Dividend DateN/A
1y Target Est187.00
Trade prices are not sourced from all markets
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    From a valuation perspective, GrubHub (NYSE:GRUB) is one of the cheapest growth stocks in the market. On an absolute basis, GRUB stock certainly isn't cheap, at nearly 50x 2019 EPS estimates. But given torrid revenue growth and still-strong EBITDA margins, that multiple is reasonable. A valuation of ~5x 2019 revenue guidance looks downright cheap compared to other platform plays.Source: Shutterstock And GRUB certainly is much cheaper than it was, having dropped by more than 50% from September highs. If the company can keep growing, there's an obvious path to solid upside here, particularly in a market where many similar plays have valuation worries.At the moment, however, that seems like a big "if," 2019 guidance given with Q4 results last month was notably disappointing. Costs are rising faster than revenue, leading to lower margins. And there's an increasing amount of commentary suggesting that GrubHub is losing market share despite that spend.InvestorPlace - Stock Market News, Stock Advice & Trading Tips * 5 Cloud Stocks to Help Your Portfolio Fly If that share erosion continues, GRUB stock probably isn't cheap enough - and maybe not close. But if GrubHub can even stabilize share, GrubHub stock can rebound sharply. Disappointing 2019 GuidanceA number of high-multiple platform stocks stumbled in the fourth quarter, including GRUB, Square (NYSE:SQ), and Shopify (NYSE:SHOP). In a stronger market in 2019, SQ and SHOP have rallied; GRUB has not.One key reason is that Q4 earnings disappointed, particularly in terms of 2019 guidance. The revenue outlook still looks reasonably strong, with GrubHub projecting 31-41% growth on the top line. But costs are soaring, leading to pressure on margins. EBITDA is guided to increase just 1-13% from 2018 levels. EBITDA margins are guided to just 18.3% - against a 26.9% figure back in 2017.That in and of itself isn't fatal to the bull case for GrubHub stock. The company is investing behind the business: sales and marketing spend nearly doubled between 2016 and 2018, for instance. But that spend should drive further revenue and profits.Operations and support spend has risen even faster, climbing 165% over the past two years. Some of that spend, however, comes as GrubHub enters new markets - which create new costs before revenues kick in.Still, there are worries that margins are going in the wrong direction, when the point of a platform business is that those margins expand as the business scales. GRUB management said on the Q4 conference call that the rate of spending increase would slow as the year went on, presumably allowing for a return to expense leverage in 2019. But the performance of GrubHub stock of late shows that investors remain somewhat skeptical. Market Share and GRUB StockThe concern at the moment is that GrubHub is making all these investments and yet still losing market share. Last week, Edison Trends reported that privately held DoorDash had passed GrubHub in market share. On Wednesday, analysts at KeyBanc Capital Markets raised more market share worries. GrubHub stock dropped 8.4% on that report.The move on Wednesday shows that investors are taking these concerns seriously. And they should. GrubHub is spending now to build out its business - and yet market share is declining. Is GrubHub giving up margin simply to run in place - at best?If that's the case, that's a problem for GRUB stock - even 50%+ off the highs. Competition isn't going anywhere. DoorDash likely will go public at some point in the near future. Uber, operator of UberEats, will execute its IPO this year. (NASDAQ:AMZN) whose moves have tanked GRUB stock in the past still looms.To be sure, GrubHub shouldn't be written off just yet. The company recently added Yum! Brands (NYSE:YUM) concept Taco Bell as a customer, a nice get. New markets should provide growth in the second half of 2019 and beyond. It's unlikely that growth is going to be come to a screeching halt and if it doesn't, GRUB stock really isn't as expensive as it looks. Can GrubHub Stock Rally Again?A 50x multiple to 2019 EPS estimates hardly looks cheap. But if GrubHub management is right, and spend will pull back in 2020, GRUB can get reasonably valued in a hurry. Right now, 2020 estimates are for $2.22 in EPS, suggesting 50%+ growth and a 32x multiple. Assuming growth returns that year and continues going forward, GRUB can back to $100+ in a hurry.35x 2021 EPS estimates around $3 does the trick. And even with KeyBanc's caution, the Street remains bullish: the average target price for GRUB stock remains over $100, suggesting 50%+ upside.So there is a path for GrubHub stock to provide superior returns. That will require costs to come down as scheduled in 2020 - without an attendant loss in market share. Given the potential upside, betting on GrubHub to pull that off certainly seems intriguing, at least.As of this writing, Vince Martin has no positions in any securities mentioned. More From InvestorPlace * 2 Toxic Pot Stocks You Should Avoid * 7 Invincible Stocks Leading The Bull Market Higher * 5 Dow Jones Stocks Coming to Life * 7 of the Best High-Yield Funds for 2019 and Beyond Compare Brokers The post The Future of GRUB Stock Will Come Down to Market Share appeared first on InvestorPlace.

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    Keep a Close Eye on Salesforce Stock

    Recently, I've become increasingly convinced that (NYSE:CRM) is an important barometer for the tech sector as a whole. CRM stock price isn't the only gauge investors need to watch, But Salesforce stock still seems to provide a pure look at investors' preferences.Source: Shutterstock The key reason why is that 's story is reasonably simple. It has a fantastic business. No one can dispute that. As CEO Marc Benioff pointed out on its Q4 conference call earlier this month, the company was the fastest enterprise software company ever to reach $13 billion in sales. (The company celebrated its 20th anniversary on Mar. 8) Its revenue growth has been almost bizarrely consistent for years now, hovering generally in the 24%-26% range. * 7 Small-Cap Stocks That Make the Grade And there really aren't any external factors that can materially change its outlook. Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) and Adobe (NASDAQ:ADBE) are trying to compete in customer relationship management, or CRM, software, but the dominance of appears assured. A downturn in the macro cycle likely would impact Salesforce stock.InvestorPlace - Stock Market News, Stock Advice & Trading TipsBut given multi-year contracts and the importance of CRM software to businesses, the impact likely would be manageable. (Note that CRM's revenue more than tripled between 2007 and 2011.)Of course, CRM stock price also isn't cheap or close to it. And so Salesforce stock provides an intriguing answer to an interesting question: what, exactly, are investors willing to pay for growth?Coming off the company's fourth-quarter report, it appears investors aren't sure about the answer to that question. Once they figure it out, the rest of the market may as well. Earnings "Surprise" for Salesforce Stock (Yeah, Right)Salesforce's earnings came in nicely ahead of Street estimates on both the top and bottom lines. That surprised exactly no one remotely familiar with Salesforce stock; as I wrote before the report, hasn't missed on either revenue or earnings in at least five-plus years.Yet it wasn't good enough. The company's guidance looks a bit disappointing, as Nicholas Chahine detailed after the report. The CRM stock price fell 3.7% on the day of the report and dipped almost 1% on the following day. Salesforce stock wound up falling 6% for the week, but it has since regained the majority of its losses.Bu the initial selloff seemed to confirm the risk facing CRM stock and the market. Bear in mind that the CRM stock price over time has been an exaggerated reflection of the market as a whole. It gained steadily in the first years of the decade, as the market recovered, and its gains accelerated in 2016 and 2017, as the stock market gained steam.Salesforce stock peaked in early October 2018 and then plunged as the Q4 selloff hit. CRM stock lost over 25% of its value in less than three months and took three and a half months to gain it all back, and then some.The profit-taking after the strong Q4 report seemed to suggest that investors were paying more attention to risk, but subsequently, as noted above, CRM stock regained most of the losses it had suffered this month. How High Can the CRM Stock Price Go?The issue at this point is that Salesforce stock is expensive, really expensive. It still trades at about 60 times the company's 2020 earnings guidance. At some point, investors will start worrying about the valuation of even a great business, which unquestionably is.From here, it still looks like valuation fears drove the initial post-earnings reaction. Disappointing guidance is a good talking point, but again, never misses analyst estimates. It's reasonably obvious at this point that the company guides conservatively. Meanwhile, Q1 and 2019 projections aside, the company also predicted that its revenue would double again by fiscal 2023.There was nothing wrong with the company's Q4 results. The issue is its valuation. But there's another aspect of Salesforce stock that could demonstrate investors' appetite for risk. predicts that its non-GAAP EPS will come in at $2.74-$2.76, but that includes stock-based compensation of $1.84 .That's two-thirds of its projected net income. Back that out, and CRM stock is trading at over 172 times the high end of this year's earnings guidance. Some investors have questioned whether Salesforce stock should have such a high valuation. If more investors agree, CRM stock likely would be the first stock to take a big hit. Watch CRM Going ForwardBetween the stock's valuation and the company's share-based comp, CRM obviously is a growth stock. And the relatively simple nature of its outlook means there's one key argument regarding Salesforce stock: what to pay for the business. Bulls will argue that paying up for Salesforce stock has been a great bet for nearly 15 years. Bears will reply that, at some point, the rally has to end.That argument is a stalemate right now. It's worth paying close attention to who wins in the near-term. Where CRM stock goes, other growth stocks - like Square (NYSE:SQ), Shopify (NYSE:SHOP) and Workday (NASDAQ:WDAY) - are likely to follow.If Salesforce stock is too expensive, so is pretty much every other stock in the market; few, if any, of them have as an outlook that's as good as CRM. If investors are willing to pay up for CRM stock now, however, they'll likely be willing to stretch for other growth plays. The pre- and post-earnings movements of CRM stock price show the market isn't quite sure which side to take. At some point soon, that will change.As of this writing, Vince Martin has no positions in any securities mentioned. More From InvestorPlace * 2 Toxic Pot Stocks You Should Avoid * 5 of the Best Stocks to Buy Under $10 * 7 Single-Digit P/E Stocks With Massive Upside * 7 Best Quantum Computing Stocks Trading Today Compare Brokers The post Keep a Close Eye on Salesforce Stock appeared first on InvestorPlace.

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    Say hello to MongoDB (NASDAQ:MDB). The company behind the world's most used modern database platform went public in late 2017 at a price of $24 per share. MDB stock popped on its first day on Wall Street, and it's been nothing but up, up, and away since then.Source: Shutterstock Most recently, MongoDB reported monster fourth quarter numbers which smashed analyst estimates and included above consensus revenue and profit guides for both next quarter and next year. MDB soared more than 25% in response to all time highs in excess of $130. That means the stock has risen by more than five-fold over the past year and a half.Is this rally sustainable? Or is MDB stock just in a prolonged Wall Street honeymoon phase that's due to end soon?InvestorPlace - Stock Market News, Stock Advice & Trading Tips * 7 Winning High-Yield Dividend Stocks With Payouts Over 5% I think the former. In the big picture, MongoDB is a monster growth company with a unique, interesting, and necessary solution aimed at disrupting the multi-billion dollar software database market.Secular trends are favorable, the company is growing rapidly, the market opportunity is huge, gross margins are high, the business model is attractive, and the long term profit potential is enormous.All in all, MongoDB has all the characteristics of a monster growth stock. The only question, then, is valuation. At $130, the valuation is not stretched enough to unhinge this rally or detract from the long term bull thesis. As such, I think this stock will keep rallying for the foreseeable future, and that any and all big dips should be seen as buying opportunities into a really strong stock. The Fundamentals Are Very StrongMongoDB is a very technical company. Specifically, MongoDB is a general purpose, distributed database platform that combines non-relational and relational database architectures to improve performance, scalability, flexibility, and reliability of software databases.That's a mouthful. But, the idea isn't too hard to understand.Essentially, at the heart of every software application is a database, which is used to store, organize, and process data. Traditionally, these databases were relational, or row-based, since old school data was almost always structured in a row-column manner.Recently, though, technological advancements and a boom in data volume have created a surge in the amount of non-relational, or document-based, data in the world. Companies need to store, organize, and process this data, too, but relational databases have shortcomings in doing so.Thus, over the past several years, there has been a surge in NoSQL, or non-relational, databases. MongoDB is one of these databases. But, the platform is unique in that it takes the best parts of relational databases, combines them with the reduced rigidity inherent to non-relational databases, and delivers a hybrid database platform built for the modern world.Beyond this core narrative, there are a few trends working in MongoDB's favor. First, every company is becoming a tech company, and deploying software applications. Second, every company is starting to use data in increasing frequency to make business decisions. Third, most companies are pivoting to the cloud, a transition that forces them to re-evaluate their database platforms.Given all this, it should be no surprise that MongoDB is growing by leaps and bounds. The customer base grew by 130% last year, and those customers are increasingly spending big money on the platform. Revenue growth has been running in the 50%-plus range for several consecutive quarters.Yet, revenues are still expected at just $370 million next year. The global software database market is nearing $60 billion. Thus, so long as MongoDB continues to win share through its hybrid-derived advantages, this company will remain on a big growth trajectory. Valuation Is Stretched, but Not Too MuchGiven the company's robust fundamental growth narrative and secular tailwinds, it's fair to say at this point in time that MongoDB projects as a big growth company for the foreseeable future. Big growth companies are usually accompanied by high flying stocks, so long as the valuation remains reasonable. Thus, the question of where MDB stock goes next hinges on valuation.Right now, the valuation on MDB is stretched. The company now has a $7 billion market cap. Sales next year are expected around $370 million. That means MDB stock is trading at nearly 20-times forward sales.That's a big multiple. Even for a hyper-growth software company. Two of my favorite hyper-growth software stocks, Shopify (NYSE:SHOP) and The Trade Desk (NASDAQ:TTD), trade at 15-times forward sales, and those sales multiples are about as big as it gets in this sector. Consequently, it's fair to say that the valuation on MDB is stretched here and now, but I don't think it is fundamentally unsupported.If you take a long term view on MDB, it's easy to see that this company projects as 20%-plus revenue grower for the next decade-plus as increasing data volume and variety amplify the need for hybrid database platforms. Gross margins are sky high above 70%. Opex rates are falling with scale, and could reasonably trend towards 40-50%.As such, at scale, this will be a multi-billion dollar revenue company with 20%-plus operating margins. Under those assumptions, my modeling suggests that this could one day be a billion dollar profit company. Based on a software average 30 forward multiple, that equates to a $30 billion market cap one day.In other words, MDB has lot of runway left. So long as the numbers remain strong and support the long term bull thesis, the stock will remain on a winning trajectory. Bottom Line on MDB StockI wouldn't chase the rally in MDB stock here. But, this is a monster growth stock supported by very strong secular tailwinds and robust growth rates. Thus, any big pullback from all time highs should be viewed as a long term buying opportunity.As of this writing, Luke Lango was long SHOP and TTD, and may initiate a long position in MDB within the next 72 hours. More From InvestorPlace * 2 Toxic Pot Stocks You Should Avoid * 15 Stocks Sitting on Huge Piles of Cash * The 10 Best Stocks to Buy for the Bull Market's Anniversary * 7 Dividend Stocks With Big Yields Compare Brokers The post MongoDB Has Monster Potential and There's Still Time to Grab MDB Stock appeared first on InvestorPlace.

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    I've been pretty hard on web store provider Shopify (NASDAQ:SHOP), but investors, and the Shopify stock price, have ignored me. Since tech bottomed at Christmas, Shopify shares have risen from less than $130 to their March 13 opening bid of $202. That gives the company a market cap of $22.4 billion, on 2018 revenue of $1.07 billion.Source: Shopify via FlickrAs far back as 2017 I predicted this would all end in tears, citing a report from short-sellers Citron Research that called Shopify a scam at $60 per share. More recently I noted its lack of operating cash flow and use in drop-ship scams. All this is still true. But it doesn't disturb the bulls. One recent story calls Shopify a "virtual go-to destination for aspiring entrepreneurs and small businesses."InvestorPlace - Stock Market News, Stock Advice & Trading Tips * 15 Stocks Sitting on Huge Piles of Cash Celebrity, Pot and Shopify StockChief operating officer Harvey Finkelstein was recently on the TV, touting Shopify's use by celebrities such as Kylie Jenner and Drake, but also hyping the software's use by Canadian pot sellers.Shopify now touts itself as a Software as a Service (SaaS) ecommerce platform, bragging about the success of merchants like Jenner without noting how little the company makes when one of its customers succeeds.That's because Shopify is like a casino, in that those big buildings aren't built with money from winners. Shopify's results are fueled by 20,000 app developers and agencies that are selling their tools to Shopify sellers. Shopify gets a fat 20% off the top from those sales. Inside the NumbersFor the quarter ending in December Shopify lost $12 million, 1 cent per share, on revenues of $343.8 million. The company's press release noted this was 54% ahead of the previous year, making the loss irrelevant to the investment case.Shopify divides revenue into "subscription solutions," which involve use of the Shopify software, and "merchant solutions," sales made through the app store. It's the app store revenue that's been growing fastest, rising 63% year over year from $129 million in the last quarter of 2017 to $210 million in the last quarter of 2018.I like to look at cash flow, which was a positive $269 million for the year. But operating cash flow was just $9.3 million. The big number was $1.04 billion. That's how much cash went on the books from the public offering. Shopify is rising on the money from its own investors.Shopify's release also details how its income flows. It shows 54% of what comes in is gross profit, with sales and marketing expenses representing 26% of revenue. A lot of Shopify's money goes into finding new customers.The initial reaction when the Shopify numbers came out last month was negative. Analysts were expecting $55 million in earnings. The company said it was "investing heavily" in augmented reality and virtual reality applications, but total investment in research was $67 million. The stock now trades above where it was before earnings. The Bottom Line on Shopify StockI avoid going short on anything because it's easy for bulls to hold shares from short sellers and drive a target's price up. My favorite aphorism is that of the 19th century speculator Daniel Drew, who said of short sellers "He who sells what isn't his'n, must buy it back or go to pris'n." Drew ended his life broke.On the other hand, I also avoid speculation for the sake of speculation. If you buy Shopify now, you're paying over 20 times sales for a company without profits, most of whose cash flow comes from sale of its own stock.I may be missing a profit rocket, but I say thanks but no thanks.Dana Blankenhorn is a financial and technology journalist. He is the author of a new mystery thriller, The Reluctant Detective Finds Her Family, available now at the Amazon Kindle store. Write him at or follow him on Twitter at @danablankenhorn. As of this writing he owned no shares in companies mentioned in this article. More From InvestorPlace * 2 Toxic Pot Stocks You Should Avoid * 5 of the Best Stocks to Buy Under $10 * 7 Retail Stocks Winning in 2019 and Beyond * The 10 Best Stocks to Buy for the Bull Market's Anniversary Compare Brokers The post The Shopify Stock Bubble Can Only Keep Getting Bigger for so Long appeared first on InvestorPlace.

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