|Bid||0.00 x 36200|
|Ask||0.00 x 2900|
|Day's Range||83.19 - 83.27|
|52 Week Range||83.09 - 84.72|
|PE Ratio (TTM)||95.90|
|Expense Ratio (net)||0.15%|
The US bond markets remained under selling pressure as bond yields, especially at the short end of the curve, continued to shoot up, while the long-term yields remained subdued. The US Fed through its May post-meeting statement said that inflation would reach the 2% target soon, which was interpreted as a signal for a faster pace of rate hikes. An inverted yield curve, where short-term (SHY) yields are higher than long-term yields (TLT) is considered a warning sign for future recessions, and thus the yield spread has a place in the leading economic index.
The Conference Board uses credit conditions in the economy as one of the components of the leading economic index (or LEI) economic model. Changes to six financial market instruments are modeled to construct this credit index. ...
US ten-year bond market yields have scaled a new seven-year peak at 3.07, their highest level since July 2011. This 100-basis-point move, which happened over the span of a little over eight months, has taken its toll on bond prices. Thanks to rising crude prices, increased chances of higher inflation have been fueling the recent rally in rates.
US bond market yields continue to trend higher, but their overall movement last week was limited. Despite this limited movement, a few takeaways from the week hint at how interesting the bond markets could get in the future. The market’s reaction can be interpreted as investors seeing that the Federal Reserve will stick to its tightening stance in the future and that a change in inflation expectations will drive bond yields.
US bond market yields cooled off after hitting a four-year high at the end of April. Bond yields fell after the April employment report was lower than expected. The unemployment rate dropped below 4% for the first time in 20 years, which was the highlight of the report.
Investors poured into fixed income ETFs in April as equity market volatility jumped with several month’s leading asset-gathering ETFs being bond funds. For example, the iShares Short Treasury Bond ETF ...
The equity market has be shaken by a sudden bout of volatility, sending investors out of riskier assets and into safer plays. The shift in investment sentiment has been a huge boon for bond exchange traded ...
In fact, April was a great month for bond ETFs on multiple fronts. Last month, BlackRock, Inc. ( BLK), the parent company of iShares, the world's largest ETF issuer, said that combined assets under management for bond ETFs listed around the world eclipsed $800 billion. Entering the final trading day of last month, "U.S.-listed bond ETF flows have attracted $14.7 billion so far in April, on track for [the] biggest month of net inflows since October 2014 (October 2014 had inflows of $17.3 billion)," said Steve Laipply, head of U.S. iShares fixed income strategy at BlackRock.
US bond markets were the main focus in a week dominated by earnings. In the previous week, the US ten-year bond yield broke above 3% for the first time in four years. Last week’s reports on the first-quarter GDP and the Employee Cost Index signaled that the Fed could increase rates three times this year, which pushed bond yields higher. By the end of the week, the yield retreated from the higher levels. The euphoria around the 3% mark seems to be declining. Whether the yield is at 3%, 2.96%, 3.1%, the overall trend is important. The trend seems to be tilted towards higher yields. ...
What Do March Leading Indicators Signal for the US Economy? The US bond markets were back in focus as the chatter about the yield curve flattening has grown louder in recent weeks. The decision of the US FOMC during its March meeting to increase the Fed funds rate by 0.25% had an uneven impact on the yield curve.
The Conference Board uses the credit conditions in the economy as one of the constituents of the Leading Economic Index (or LEI) economic model. This credit index is constructed by modeling changes to six financial market instruments. The changes to this index help us understand the state of credit conditions in the economy. ...
The US bond markets were under pressure as the yield curve continued flattening until Wednesday last week. The yield spread between the two-year and ten-year reached a decade low of 41 basis points on Wednesday, but a rebound in commodity prices triggered higher inflation expectations and led to the sharp rally of US bond yields last week. The Vanguard Total Bond Market (BND) ETF, which tracks the performance of the bond markets, ended the previous week at 79.02, a fall of 0.77% for the week ending April 20.
In a recent speech after the March FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting, Loretta Mester, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, sided with Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s view that a flattening yield (AGG) curve doesn’t signal a weakness.
It’s difficult to pinpoint a single reason for changes to the yield curve’s slope. First, any changes to the Fed’s interest rate immediately impact the yield curve at the short end, and the projections for long-term rates dictate the changes at the long end of the curve. For instance, the recent rate hike at the Fed’s March meeting had varying impacts on the US Treasury yield curve.
The spread, or the difference between the yields of the ten-year US Treasury and the two-year US Treasury (BND), has fallen below 50 basis points for the first time since 2007. According to Investopedia, “A yield curve is a line that plots the interest rates, at a set point in time, of bonds having equal credit quality but differing maturity dates.” The most common yield curve traced by the investing and academic communities is the U.S. Treasury (GOVT) curve that plots the yields across various maturities. A normal yield curve is upward sloping, and long-term yields are higher than short-term yields.
US bond markets’ relief after a dovish FOMC statement was short lived as geopolitical tensions took center stage. US bond yields rose along the curve dominated by a sharp increase in yields at the short-end of the curve, which reignited fears of the yield curve flattening. The 2s10s spread has now reduced to 45 basis points and the 2s30s spread has been reduced to a fresh cycle low of 66 basis points.
As traders turn risk-off in response to escalating trade war tensions, investors have been diving into safety bets like Treasury bonds and related ETFs. A weekly data compilation by Bank of America Merrill ...
During his keynote at the tenth conference organized by the International Research Forum on Monetary Policy in March 2018, Boston Federal Reserve president Eric Rosengren said that the United States has been lagging behind some European economies (VGK), which are building excess fiscal policy buffers by following austerity measures. Recently, the Trump administration has announced tax cuts for businesses and individuals and proposed increased spending, adding to the fiscal deficit. Total US debt has now surpassed $21 trillion and it is expected to increase further as the government deficit is likely to balloon in the months ahead.
Do We Have the Tools to Combat a Recession? In his keynote delivered at the tenth conference organized by the International Research Forum on Monetary Policy in March, Boston Federal Reserve president Eric Rosengren highlighted US policy tools’ deficiency in combating another recession. Speaking about the monetary policy tools, he said that the current level of US short-term interest rates (SHY) leaves little room for them to be lowered during an economic slowdown.
In March 2018, Boston Federal Reserve president Eric Rosengren delivered the keynote at the tenth conference organized by the International Research Forum on Monetary Policy. The discussion aimed to analyze if the US economy was equipped with the policy tools to combat a recession. Rosengren repeatedly cautioned the audience that he was not predicting a recession anytime soon, though wanted to highlight that it is the right time to prepare for any future slowdown.
The US bond markets were relieved last week after the FOMC’s (Federal Open Market Committee) statement regarding its 0.25% rate hike sounded more dovish than expected. This forecast came as a relief to the bond markets, which had been reeling from fears about rising bond yields. The two-year bond yields declined for the first time in many months in response to the FOMC statement. The Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (BND) ended the previous week at $79.52, depreciating by 0.01% for the week ended March 23.