291.55 -0.44 (-0.15%)
Pre-Market: 6:07AM EDT
|Bid||291.37 x 1000|
|Ask||291.40 x 1000|
|Day's Range||291.81 - 293.22|
|52 Week Range||248.08 - 293.94|
|PE Ratio (TTM)||N/A|
|Expense Ratio (net)||0.09%|
The U.S. Federal Reserve's anticipated interest rate hike this week will make cash the most attractive it has been in about a decade and end the era of stocks as the only game in town. During this bull market which in August broke the record as the longest ever, interest rates were so low that most fixed income assets other than junk bonds yielded less than the inflation rate or the dividend yield on the S&P 500. This drove yield-hungry investors to stocks, the one asset that delivered a real rate of return, or return on investment adjusted for inflation.
President Trump imposed $200 billion worth of tariffs on Chinese goods – although at a lower rate than expected – and China retaliated with tariffs on another $60 billion of U.S. goods. Investors will be watching to see if President Trump will respond with further tariffs on China. In recent comments, he suggested potential tariffs on an additional $267 billion in Chinese goods, which would cover the value of all goods that the U.S. buys from China.
At Investopedia we are the fortunate beneficiaries of being a source of information on all things finance and investing. Now, on the 10 th anniversary of the financial crisis, we’ve crawled up into the attic of our data sets from the 2008-09 era to look at what our users were searching for just as the global financial system was melting down. We decided to look at 4 periods in the 2008-09 era to see how the evolution of investor education was taking place on our website. September 2008 -- The fall of Lehman Bros., Fannie and Freddie Mac were put into conservatorship and the Federal Reserve made a loan to AIG to save it and the banking system from systemic failure.
On September 13–20, US equity indexes had the following correlations with US crude oil November futures: the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIA): 16.5% the S&P 500 (SPY): 0.1% the S&P Mid-Cap 400 (IVOO): -13.1%
On September 13–20, major energy ETFs had the following correlations with US crude oil November futures: the SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF (XOP): 95.2% the VanEck Vectors Oil Services ETF (OIH): 71.6% the Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE): 69.3% the Alerian MLP ETF (AMLP): -44.4%
On September 20, US crude oil November futures fell 0.6% and settled at $70.32 per barrel ahead of OPEC and non-OPEC members’ meeting. On the same day, the Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) was unchanged. The S&P 500 Index (SPY) and the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index (DIA) rose 0.8% and 1% on September 20. Mute energy stocks might have helped these indexes rise. In Part 3 of this series, we’ll analyze US crude oil’s relationship with these equity indexes.
The CBOE SKEW Index was developed in the aftermath of the 1987 stock market crash, as a measure of investor unease with the market. It recently registered its highest levels of worry among investors since its inception in 1990, Business Insider reports.
Merck (MRK) stock has risen from $54.93 on January 2 to $70.42 on September 18—a 28.2% increase year-to-date. The performance of Merck stock has been closely related to the sales, clinical trial outcomes, and regulatory decisions for the company’s leading immuno-oncology drug, Keytruda. Approved in 13 indications and eight tumor types, Keytruda reported sales of $1.7 billion in the second quarter.
On September 19, US crude oil November futures rose 1.7% and closed at $70.77 per barrel—the highest closing level for active US crude oil futures since July 13. In the last trading session, the S&P 500 Index (SPY) and the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index (DIA) rose 0.1% and 0.6%, respectively.
In a recent note, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Chief Investment Strategist Michael Hartnett analyzed the state of the markets 10 years following financial crisis. Hartnett cited the unique deflationary nature of the bull market, wherein while stocks have risen to record highs, brokerage commissions have fallen to $30 billion from $80 billion since 2000, as outlined by Business Insider. Deflationary assets such as government bonds, US investment-grade bonds, the S&P 500, US consumer discretionary equities, growth stocks and US high-yield credit have outperformed the inflationary group including assets like commodities, Treasury inflation protected securities, developed-market stocks (excluding the US and Canada), US banks, value stocks and cash.
Have President Trump’s Tactics Started to Yield Results? On September 17, President Trump imposed 10% tariffs on $200 billion worth of goods from China. The tariffs will increase to 25% by the end of 2018.
Celanese (CE), a specialty chemical company, has outperformed its selected peers so far in 2018. YTD (year-to-date), Celanese has risen ~6%. Its peer Eastman Chemical (EMN) has risen 5% YTD. LyondellBasell (LYB) and Westlake Chemical (WLK) have fallen 7.4% and 21.2%, respectively, YTD. However, CE has underperformed the S&P 500 (SPY), which has gained 8.6% in the same period.
US-based global parcel delivery company FedEx (FDX) announced its fiscal 2019 first-quarter earnings after market hours on September 17. The company missed analysts’ adjusted EPS estimate by 9%. FedEx’s adjusted EPS in the quarter came in at $3.46 against analysts’ expectations of $3.81. Compared with adjusted EPS of $2.51 in the first quarter of 2018, the company’s EPS was up ~38% YoY (year-over-year) in Q1 2019.
Have President Trump’s Tactics Started to Yield Results? President Trump announced 10% tariffs on another $200 billion of Chinese goods earlier this week. Meanwhile, China has ruled out currency devaluation amid its trade war with the US.
While fund managers are bullish on US equities (SPY) (VTI), there’s still concern in the market. In the BAML (Bank of America Merrill Lynch) September 2018 survey, trade war concerns were cited as the top concern among global fund managers for five of the past seven months. About 43% of the fund managers surveyed cited a trade war as their top tail risk.
Other market gurus have been raising alarms this year, warning that wrenching stock market declines are on the horizon. Among the respected long-time market watchers who aren't buying into doom and gloom is Richard Bernstein. After 21 years as a top investment strategist with Merrill Lynch, he founded investment advisory firm Richard Bernstein Advisors in 2009, where he serves as CEO and chief investment officer (CIO).
So far in September, Boeing has managed to increase investor wealth by 4.2%. A big defense win has definitely aided its performance. Boeing’s defense peers have also performed relatively well.
On September 18, natural gas October futures rose 4.2% and settled at $2.933 per MMBtu (million British thermal units)—the highest closing level for active natural gas futures since August 23.
This is a dramatic step for the largest U.S. bank to take, given that U.S. stocks have more than quadrupled in value since their financial crisis lows in March 2009. U.S. stocks have continued to surge ahead in 2018, rebounding from a sharp correction earlier this year, and thus far have defied ominously bearish warnings from some notable market gurus.
The BAML (Bank of America Merrill Lynch) September survey indicated that investors’ outlook for economic growth has worsened. In August, a net 7% of the managers surveyed expected global growth to slow down next year. In September, the percentage climbed steeply to 24%. That makes it the worst outlook on the global economy since December 2011.
In the previous part, we discussed Nucor’s (NUE) third-quarter earnings guidance. In this part, we’ll discuss Steel Dynamics’ third-quarter guidance. The guidance was released after the markets closed on September 17.
BAML (Bank of America Merrill Lynch) conducted a survey that polled 244 global investors with $742 billion in total assets under management from September 7–13. The divergence theme in equity markets was quite evident in the allocations in September. The equity allocations to emerging markets (EEM) fell to 10% underweight in September compared to 1% underweight in August.
Shares of online streaming giant Netflix (NFLX) rose 5% on September 18. The stock is currently trading at $367.65, 108% above its 52-week low of $176.55 and 13% below its 52-week high of $423.21.