|Bid||0.00 x 1800|
|Ask||0.00 x 1400|
|Day's Range||144.29 - 145.79|
|52 Week Range||111.90 - 148.60|
|PE Ratio (TTM)||N/A|
|Beta (3Y Monthly)||3.16|
|Expense Ratio (net)||0.15%|
Amid the trade war, weakening economic indicators, and the yield curve inversion, Jeffrey Gundlach believes the Fed has lost control of interest rates.
After a positive trading session on Monday for Wall Street, the threat of headlines remain. Last week, the sentiment went too bearish and was an opportunity to go long many great companies whose stocks were unduly punished. Here are a few tickers to watch going into tomorrow. Top Stock Trades for Tomorrow: TLTLast week, investors piled into the U.S. bonds and the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:TLT) spiked to new highs. But late in the week, the opportunity came from the sentiment in that trade; it went too bearish.InvestorPlace - Stock Market News, Stock Advice & Trading Tips * 7 Great Small-Cap Stocks to Buy The risk is now not that the TLT stock is too expensive, but the opportunity that originates from the recklessness of last week's trade. There was widespread consensus that U.S. bonds will continue to rally with absolute certainty. This is never correct, because if there was no risk then there should be no return.So the right trade was to short the TLT on Thursday when that rhetoric was prevalent. This opportunity is still there because the TLT left a lot of froth from its latest rip and can fill the gap to $136. The bet is that the TLT bulls became too complacent. Top Stock Trades for Tomorrow: GLDSimilar to the TLT, investors piled into the precious metals like silver and gold so the bulls there also became too complacent. The SPDR Gold Shares (NYSEARCA:GLD) is now overextended but this is not a call on the value of GLD. This is merely to say that too much love on the name right now.So again the trade was to start shorting the GLD stock last week. But on Monday we saw a continuation of the weakness so the trade is still on. Much like the TLT, GLD also left a lot of recent froth that could come out of the chart quickly.But since both the TLT and GLD trades are similar, I don't want to do both at the same time. Especially, if I am already long the equities in general. Top Stock Trades for Tomorrow No. 3: UBERLyft (NASDAQ:LYFT) lock-up expires by tomorrow. But the better trade is to be long Uber (NYSE:UBER) for the next few years. The concept actually started last week. For all those who missed the IPO, the lows of last week were an opportunity to take another flyer on long bet on UBER stock.The thesis for that is not short term, however. This is a company that has the opportunity to be like Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN), which started its life as a book seller but now dominates several industries.UBER also started by moving people but now has several verticals already going and many more in potential. UBER freight is a leading candidate to become a cash cow. While mainstream investors criticize their profitability, they are missing the potential. Growth companies are supposed to spend a lot to grow a lot. Sure, UBER losses are massive but so are their addressable markets so it is unavoidable. Top Stock Trades for Tomorrow No. 4: AAPLThere is no doubt that Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) has been the poster child of company success. Yet, AAPL stock never gets all the respect it deserves. AAPL is almost never a momentum stock like AMZN but there could be a move coming.In the next few days, I would watch for the break above the $218 per share neckline. This has been a cement wall of late and for good reason. $220 is the yearly point of control so the bulls and bears like to fight it out there and create congestion.So, if and once the AAPL bulls break above it then they will overshoot. Apple stock can then target $230 per share or higher.I know it sounds ridiculous but the charts paint a clear picture of the potential. So it's best to set sentiment aside and treat the opportunity with technical spin rather than emotional. Top Stock Trades for Tomorrow No. 5: AMDAdvanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD) has been the chip stock champion. But one can make the argument that it's the overall tech champ. At one time this honor went to Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) but no longer. Somehow AMD stock finished last year up 50% while the stock market was falling off a cliff.Here, AMD stock is again showing signs of a breakout. But since we are still in a headline trading mode, I cannot trust the politicians not to foil this potential as well. So patience will be a virtue and there are definitely important lines in the AMD short term chart to heed.While Monday the stock is up 2%, AMD is heading into a resistance zone. Onus is on the bulls to prove that they can reclaim it as footing. If so then the eventual upside target $37 per share of higher, but it won't be easy.Conversely, there are holes in the chart below and these gaps can exert downside pressure. Luckily, there is the short-term point-of-control zone around 29.5 that will lend support. Losing $28 would bring a bearish scenario but one I don't think will come alone. Meaning, if the markets hold this most recent bottom, then AMD lows are set for now. * 7 Great Small-Cap Stocks to Buy So I'd rather sell puts below than chase upside above while markets battle the headlines. For example I could have collected over $1.50 per contract for selling $26 November AMD puts.Nicolas Chahine is the managing director of SellSpreads.com. As of this writing, he did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities. Join his live chat room for free here. More From InvestorPlace * 2 Toxic Pot Stocks You Should Avoid * 10 Cheap Dividend Stocks to Load Up On * The 10 Biggest Losers from Q2 Earnings * 5 Dependable Dividend Stocks to Buy The post 5 Top Stock Trades for Tuesday: TLT, GLD, AAPL, AMD, UBER appeared first on InvestorPlace.
When the market is turbulent, investors often embark on a flight to safety. That means investors will pile into risk-off assets, such as Treasuries, gold and consumer staples. Indeed, this is exactly what has happened over the last month. While the S&P 500 is off more than 2% in the last month, the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:TLT) is up 9%, and the SPDR Gold Shares (NYSEARCA:GLD) is up 5%. And since Aug. 5, the Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSEARCA:XLP) has gained 5%.Source: Shutterstock Given that backdrop, one would assume a food and product packaging company like Sealed Air (NYSE:SEE) would also have benefited from this August flight to safety. It did, for awhile. At one point in early August, SEE stock price was up nearly 10% in August. But the stock has since given up most of those gains, and now SEE stock price is more than 5% off its August highs, while TLT, GLD, and XLP are all at or right next to their August highs.In other words, while SEE stock was initially thought of as a great risk-off investment in this stumbling economy and turbulent market, investors have since second-guessed the relative safety of Sealed Air stock.InvestorPlace - Stock Market News, Stock Advice & Trading TipsI totally get it. Ostensibly, SEE stock seems very stable, with a fairly attractive valuation and a steady yield. But at this point, it has optical issues which may keep SEE stock price relatively muted for the foreseeable future. * 7 Great Small-Cap Stocks to Buy As a result, I think Sealed Air stock is best left alone for now. Its fundamentals are strong enough that it's not a great short. Its optics are troubling enough that it's not a great long. In such a situation, the sidelines are the best place to hangout. Sealed Air's Fundamentals Are Pretty GoodThe fundamentals supporting SEE stock price are pretty good, and they're mostly favorable to the bull thesis.SEE is a global food and packaging company. Its business is pretty stable. No matter what the global economy is doing, the world is still going to have to transport staple food and goods. It's true that, as global economic activity slows, so will the trading of these goods. But the slowdown will be gradual, and it won't be that steep.Consequently, Sealed Air's performance over the past several years - a low-to-mid-single=digit-percentage revenue grower, excluding acquisitions, with slight margin expansion and low-to-high-single-digit-percentage EBITDA growth - will probably be largely duplicated over the next several years. Its growth will likely slow a bit as the global economy weakens. But Sealed Air should be able to grow its revenues at a low-single-digit rate over the next several years, on largely stable margins, which - when coupled with its buybacks of SEE stock - should produce high- single-digit-earnings per share growth.Sealed Air's EPS can reach somewhere around $4.80 by fiscal 2025. Based on a forward price-earnings multiple of 17, which is average for the packaged-goods sector, that implies a fiscal 2024 price target for SEE stock of over $80. Discounted back by 10% per year, that equates to a 2019 price target of about $50.SEE stock price is slightly above $40 today. Thus, the long term growth fundamentals currently say that Sealed Air stock is undervalued. The Optics Give PauseAlthough SEE stock is undervalued, the optics surrounding Sealed Air warrant this undervaluation for the time being. Specifically, there is an active SEC investigation overhanging Sealed Air which has created a lot of distractions. These distractions detract from Sealed Air's value as a risk-off investment during turbulent times.This SEC investigation has shifted into another gear in 2019. In May, Sealed Air was served a subpoena relating to a previously disclosed SEC investigation into the company's accounting practices. That additional subpoena has had an avalanche impact on the company.A month later, Sealed Air fired its CFO. Three months later, the company received a grand jury subpoena from a U.S. Attorney for documents related to the firing. A week after that, Sealed Air switched audit firms. And, a week after that, Upslope Capital Management, which was shorting Sealed Air stock, issued a report, citing the SEC investigation and accounting irregularities as two big reasons why it believed that SEE stock would head lower.Against the backdrop of all those distractions, Sealed Air's organic revenue growth has slowed to a multi-year low in 2019.In other words, SEE stock price is being weighed down by slowing growth trends against the backdrop of a ton of SEC/accounting noise that doesn't give investors confidence. Slowing growth plus a lack of confidence is not a winning combination.So despite SEE's favorable fundamentals, SEE stock price likely won't march meaningfully higher anytime soon. The Bottom Line on SEE StockIt's easy to look at SEE stock and see a stable consumer staples stock that should theoretically outperform during turbulent times. But that cursory analysis ignores the ugly optical risks overhanging the company. Those unfavorable optics will ultimately put a cap on near-term gains by SEE stock, making it unattractive for now.As of this writing, Luke Lango did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities. More From InvestorPlace * 2 Toxic Pot Stocks You Should Avoid * 10 Cheap Dividend Stocks to Load Up On * The 10 Biggest Losers from Q2 Earnings * 5 Dependable Dividend Stocks to Buy The post Sealed Air Stock Is Cheap, But Unattractive appeared first on InvestorPlace.
Treasury bond ETFs have been rallying as market volatility and growing concerns over the economy pushed yields on Treasury notes to new lows. Over the past month, the PIMCO 25+ Year Zero Coupon US Treasury Index ETF (NYSEArca: ZROZ) advanced 19.3%, Vanguard Extended Duration Treasury ETF (NYSEARCA: EDV) gained 17.2% and iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) increased 12.1%. Meanwhile, yields on 30-year Treasury notes slipped to record lows of 1.92% mid-Thursday.
U.S. government bonds and notes -- treasuries -- have had a great run year-to-date. The longer-end of the so-called bond curve is represented by the iShares 20+ Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:TLT), and for the year, this exchange-traded fund is higher by around 17%. While I personally think this bond rally can continue in coming quarters, in the near-term, the rally looks to be vastly overdone and a mean-reversion trade looks to be setting up for active investors and traders to feast on. Here's how you should approach the TLT ETF today.Source: Shutterstock When speaking to retail traders I often get the sense that they are not just confused but also scared by the bond market, and thus avoid following it, much less trade it. In reality, the bond market is not only a key driver of the stock market but it also dwarfs the stock market in size.Interest rates are key to any financial model and the backbone to financing activities not just for banks but also for corporations and governments around the globe. In other words, to ignore this market is to trade with blindfolds on, at best.InvestorPlace - Stock Market News, Stock Advice & Trading TipsTo yours truly, just like other asset classes such as stocks, bonds become most interesting for trading opportunities either when they break past meaningful technical levels, or reach extreme overbought or oversold readings. TLT ETF ChartsTo wit, in recent days, the TLT ETF on the multi-year chart reached its technical resistance highs from July 2016. This also coincides with historically vastly overbought readings from the MACD momentum oscillator at the bottom of the chart (both on the daily as well as the weekly charts). Also note that the year-to-date rally took place in an already steep up-trending channel (red parallels), out of which the TLT ETF went parabolic in recent days to reach the aforementioned resistance highs.Another way to look at overbought readings in the bond ETF's chart, or at least one way that market participants are increasingly getting nervous about the rally, is by noticing the implied volatility levels.At the bottom of this chart we see that implied volatility in recent days reached levels this ETF last saw in early 2018 and December 2018. Both times, as high implied volatility struck, bond prices ultimately either fell or stagnated for a few weeks.At this point, active investors and traders could look to short the TLT ETF around the $142 - $144 area. A first downside target is $138 and any further big rally spike would be a stop loss.My clients and I prefer to structure a trade in the highest probability manner, which, in this case, means selling a very specific options spread on the TLT ETF.In order to teach this special options trade I am holding a webinar for InvestorPlace readers on Thursday Aug. 15. Register here.Join Serge in an exclusive live webinar: The steady income options strategy. Register HERE. More From InvestorPlace * 2 Toxic Pot Stocks You Should Avoid * 15 Growth Stocks to Buy for the Long Haul * 5 More Cloud Stocks With Plenty of Potential * 5 Clean Energy ETFs to Buy for 2019 The post Trade of the Day: The iShares Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) Is Overbought appeared first on InvestorPlace.
Asian markets continue to bleed on increasing geo-political issues and slowing global economic growth. This, in turn, has been adding to the appeal of safe-haven ETFs.
The bond market reversed off multi-year highs on Wednesday after yields at many maturities hit multi-year lows, prompting a wave of bottoming calls on Wall Street and Twitter, but current price structure predicts at least one more rally wave before the group settles down and tops out. Bonds surged and yields fell after President Trump announced new China tariffs, set to go into effect on Sept. 1. China responded "in kind" by lowering the yuan fix, effectively dampening the financial impact of lost exports.
The U.S. stock market stepped back from the cliff’s edge with a key reversal Wednesday. Please click here for an annotated chart of iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) For the sake of transparency, the second and third charts were previously published and no changes have been made.
“Adventurous” usually isn't a word used in relation to fixed income investing, but with Treasury yields tumbling in the U.S. and other major global central banks paring interest rates, it might require ...
There are new danger signals from bonds and gold for stock market bulls. Prudent investors would be wise to understand them. • The first chart shows an “up” move in bonds has become a parabolic up move.
When volatility picks up, the moves get wild on both ends of the spectrum. In pre-market trading, the markets were set for another nice open, but traders suddenly found U.S. indices down about 1.5% going into the open. By the afternoon, equities were green. Let's look at some top stock trades in that mix. Top Stock Trades for Tomorrow 1: BondsAs you can see in the image above, there has been a flight to U.S. bonds, thus jolting the iShares 20+ Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:TLT) higher by almost 10% in just a few trading sessions. Heck, just look at the volume from the last few days. It's impressive, but looking exhausted.InvestorPlace - Stock Market News, Stock Advice & Trading Tips * 3 Steps Every Investor Should Take Before the Next Stock Market Crash Now look at the weekly chart below, looking at the last four years.Notice the orange line up at the top of the chart. This is the RSI, which measures the overbought and oversold condition of a particular security. The TLT has only been this overbought two other times in the past four years. Each other time it's led to a substantial correction.Talk to any semi-seasoned trader though and they'll be quick to point out that the RSI alone is not reason enough to take a trade. But when sentiment is at an extreme and shares begin to act irrational, a temporary high/low may not be far off.Notice how seemingly everyone's become a currency and yield-curve expert over the past week? That's not a coincidence. This week, TLT blew out of its channel, but looks like it could be topping.Look for a check-back down one of three areas: prior channel resistance near $137, the 10-week moving average now at $133 and climbing or range resistance at $133 (black line). Top Stock Trades for Tomorrow 2: MicronMicron (NASDAQ:MU) took a tumble on Wednesday but was at least able to rally off the lows. Between the 20-day and 50-day moving averages now, let's see what's next before jumping in on MU.A further correction could send shares to $39, where it has the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. It also found this level as support in July.On a rally, see if it can reclaim the 20-day moving average. More importantly though, see how it handles the $44 to $45 area, a major zone of resistance in 2019. Over it puts the July highs back on the table. Top Stock Trades for Tomorrow 3: Weight WatchersWeight Watchers (NASDAQ:WW) erupted on Wednesday, climbing some 40% after the company reported earnings. Sheesh!Anyway, longs need to be careful. As if buying a 40% move isn't dangerous enough, WW is running right into its 200-day moving average. It's also hitting short-term channel resistance, although it's possible it breaks out.Over the 200-day sets up a potential rally for more gains, though. If it does, look for a move up to the $34.30 to $35 area. Although not pictured on the daily chart above, that's where WW will run into the 50-week and 200-week moving averages.If the 200-day acts as resistance, see how $25 holds as support on a potential pullback. Top Stock Trades for Tomorrow 4: CVS HealthLike it or not, CVS Health (NYSE:CVS) continues to slowly but surely improve. The stock is erupting more than 7% on strong earnings. Should shares finish strong on the day, it will be a perfect red-to-green candidate.For swing traders and investors, the stock continues to buoy nicely along channel support, making a perfect test just yesterday. Now up over $57, I want to see CVS hold above this zone. However, below $56 and the 20-day moving average may put channel support back in play.Should shares continue higher, look for a test of $60. That's where CVS will find channel resistance and the 200-day moving average. Top Stock Trades for Tomorrow 5: InvitaeInvitae (NASDAQ:NVTA) reported a really great quarter and rose nearly 20% in after-hours and pre-market trading. Those gains did not translate to the regular session though. The stock was up more than 13% at one point, but those gains have been axed in half toward the close. * 10 Stocks to Buy on the Trade War Dip If NVTA can hold up over $25, I'd consider it a positive development. Over Wednesday's high could easily send it to $30 if the broader market is cooperating. Below the 20-day and uptrend support, and NVTA may be headed to the 50-day currently at $22.33.Bret Kenwell is the manager and author of Future Blue Chips and is on Twitter @BretKenwell. As of this writing, Bret Kenwell is long NVTA. More From InvestorPlace * 2 Toxic Pot Stocks You Should Avoid * 10 Stocks to Buy on the Trade War Dip * The 5 Highest-Rated Dow Stocks Right Now * 4 Cybersecurity Stocks to Buy for Long-Term Gains The post 5 Top Stock Trades for Thursday: TLT, WW, CVS, NVTA, MU appeared first on InvestorPlace.
A wave of pessimism surrounding trade news has pushed the U.S. Treasury yields down, raising demand for the safe-haven bonds in turn, especially the long-dated ones.
Aug. 1: This has been a week dominated by the Federal Reserve, with Wednesday’s meeting leading to repositioning by traders at the start of the week, and then a violent [Wednesday] afternoon saw much of this upended by a very messy [Fed] news conference. Although the Federal Open Market Committee delivered its 25-basis-point “cut without a cause,” there had been a view held within the market that a 50-bp cut would be delivered. More serious was the sense that [Fed] Chairman Jerome Powell is starting to lose control of his audience both within the FOMC and outside the institution.
Is it time to turn away from TINA? TINA, of course, is the acronym for There Is No Alternative, in this case to common stocks, especially U.S. equities. Low interest rates make bonds unattractive and risky, according to this line of thinking, Alternative investments, such as private equity and hedge funds, are TINA’s version of a private dancer, promising an exclusive performance for those sufficiently well-heeled to pay for it.
As the broad stock market and many other corners felt the pain of the proposed tariff, it triggered a flight to safety. Given this, investors should stash their cash in some safe investing zones.
Fixed-income ETF investors have been diving back into Treasury bonds and related exchange traded funds, with Treasury prices pushing higher despite the Federal Reserve’s indication of only a single rate ...
Invesco Vice Chairman of Investments Krishna Memani says President Trump's got a valid point and calls previous FED moves misplaced policy tightening as Wall Street prepares for the FED to cut interest rates.
Just when it seemed that U.S. stocks were heading for a third down day on Thursday after hitting new all-time highs early in the week, the Fed came to the rescue once again. This time around, New York Fed President John Williams said in a speech that "it's better to take preventative measures than to wait for disaster to unfold." Essentially, Williams appeared to be advocating a swifter and more aggressive approach to cutting interest rates than what had previously been expected. Stock indexes had been falling deeper into the red on Thursday before Williams' speech but quickly reversed and moved higher on this new sign of enhanced Fed dovishness.