|Bid||145.50 x 2200|
|Ask||145.83 x 3100|
|Day's Range||144.85 - 146.41|
|52 Week Range||111.90 - 148.60|
|Beta (3Y Monthly)||N/A|
|PE Ratio (TTM)||N/A|
|Forward Dividend & Yield||N/A (N/A)|
|1y Target Est||N/A|
U.S. government bonds and notes -- treasuries -- have had a great run year-to-date. The longer-end of the so-called bond curve is represented by the iShares 20+ Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:TLT), and for the year, this exchange-traded fund is higher by around 17%. While I personally think this bond rally can continue in coming quarters, in the near-term, the rally looks to be vastly overdone and a mean-reversion trade looks to be setting up for active investors and traders to feast on. Here's how you should approach the TLT ETF today.Source: Shutterstock When speaking to retail traders I often get the sense that they are not just confused but also scared by the bond market, and thus avoid following it, much less trade it. In reality, the bond market is not only a key driver of the stock market but it also dwarfs the stock market in size.Interest rates are key to any financial model and the backbone to financing activities not just for banks but also for corporations and governments around the globe. In other words, to ignore this market is to trade with blindfolds on, at best.InvestorPlace - Stock Market News, Stock Advice & Trading TipsTo yours truly, just like other asset classes such as stocks, bonds become most interesting for trading opportunities either when they break past meaningful technical levels, or reach extreme overbought or oversold readings. TLT ETF ChartsTo wit, in recent days, the TLT ETF on the multi-year chart reached its technical resistance highs from July 2016. This also coincides with historically vastly overbought readings from the MACD momentum oscillator at the bottom of the chart (both on the daily as well as the weekly charts). Also note that the year-to-date rally took place in an already steep up-trending channel (red parallels), out of which the TLT ETF went parabolic in recent days to reach the aforementioned resistance highs.Another way to look at overbought readings in the bond ETF's chart, or at least one way that market participants are increasingly getting nervous about the rally, is by noticing the implied volatility levels.At the bottom of this chart we see that implied volatility in recent days reached levels this ETF last saw in early 2018 and December 2018. Both times, as high implied volatility struck, bond prices ultimately either fell or stagnated for a few weeks.At this point, active investors and traders could look to short the TLT ETF around the $142 - $144 area. A first downside target is $138 and any further big rally spike would be a stop loss.My clients and I prefer to structure a trade in the highest probability manner, which, in this case, means selling a very specific options spread on the TLT ETF.In order to teach this special options trade I am holding a webinar for InvestorPlace readers on Thursday Aug. 15. Register here.Join Serge in an exclusive live webinar: The steady income options strategy. Register HERE. More From InvestorPlace * 2 Toxic Pot Stocks You Should Avoid * 15 Growth Stocks to Buy for the Long Haul * 5 More Cloud Stocks With Plenty of Potential * 5 Clean Energy ETFs to Buy for 2019 The post Trade of the Day: The iShares Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) Is Overbought appeared first on InvestorPlace.
Asian markets continue to bleed on increasing geo-political issues and slowing global economic growth. This, in turn, has been adding to the appeal of safe-haven ETFs.
The bond market reversed off multi-year highs on Wednesday after yields at many maturities hit multi-year lows, prompting a wave of bottoming calls on Wall Street and Twitter, but current price structure predicts at least one more rally wave before the group settles down and tops out. Bonds surged and yields fell after President Trump announced new China tariffs, set to go into effect on Sept. 1. China responded "in kind" by lowering the yuan fix, effectively dampening the financial impact of lost exports.
The U.S. stock market stepped back from the cliff’s edge with a key reversal Wednesday. Please click here for an annotated chart of iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) For the sake of transparency, the second and third charts were previously published and no changes have been made.
“Adventurous” usually isn't a word used in relation to fixed income investing, but with Treasury yields tumbling in the U.S. and other major global central banks paring interest rates, it might require ...
There are new danger signals from bonds and gold for stock market bulls. Prudent investors would be wise to understand them. • The first chart shows an “up” move in bonds has become a parabolic up move.
When volatility picks up, the moves get wild on both ends of the spectrum. In pre-market trading, the markets were set for another nice open, but traders suddenly found U.S. indices down about 1.5% going into the open. By the afternoon, equities were green. Let's look at some top stock trades in that mix. Top Stock Trades for Tomorrow 1: BondsAs you can see in the image above, there has been a flight to U.S. bonds, thus jolting the iShares 20+ Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:TLT) higher by almost 10% in just a few trading sessions. Heck, just look at the volume from the last few days. It's impressive, but looking exhausted.InvestorPlace - Stock Market News, Stock Advice & Trading Tips * 3 Steps Every Investor Should Take Before the Next Stock Market Crash Now look at the weekly chart below, looking at the last four years.Notice the orange line up at the top of the chart. This is the RSI, which measures the overbought and oversold condition of a particular security. The TLT has only been this overbought two other times in the past four years. Each other time it's led to a substantial correction.Talk to any semi-seasoned trader though and they'll be quick to point out that the RSI alone is not reason enough to take a trade. But when sentiment is at an extreme and shares begin to act irrational, a temporary high/low may not be far off.Notice how seemingly everyone's become a currency and yield-curve expert over the past week? That's not a coincidence. This week, TLT blew out of its channel, but looks like it could be topping.Look for a check-back down one of three areas: prior channel resistance near $137, the 10-week moving average now at $133 and climbing or range resistance at $133 (black line). Top Stock Trades for Tomorrow 2: MicronMicron (NASDAQ:MU) took a tumble on Wednesday but was at least able to rally off the lows. Between the 20-day and 50-day moving averages now, let's see what's next before jumping in on MU.A further correction could send shares to $39, where it has the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. It also found this level as support in July.On a rally, see if it can reclaim the 20-day moving average. More importantly though, see how it handles the $44 to $45 area, a major zone of resistance in 2019. Over it puts the July highs back on the table. Top Stock Trades for Tomorrow 3: Weight WatchersWeight Watchers (NASDAQ:WW) erupted on Wednesday, climbing some 40% after the company reported earnings. Sheesh!Anyway, longs need to be careful. As if buying a 40% move isn't dangerous enough, WW is running right into its 200-day moving average. It's also hitting short-term channel resistance, although it's possible it breaks out.Over the 200-day sets up a potential rally for more gains, though. If it does, look for a move up to the $34.30 to $35 area. Although not pictured on the daily chart above, that's where WW will run into the 50-week and 200-week moving averages.If the 200-day acts as resistance, see how $25 holds as support on a potential pullback. Top Stock Trades for Tomorrow 4: CVS HealthLike it or not, CVS Health (NYSE:CVS) continues to slowly but surely improve. The stock is erupting more than 7% on strong earnings. Should shares finish strong on the day, it will be a perfect red-to-green candidate.For swing traders and investors, the stock continues to buoy nicely along channel support, making a perfect test just yesterday. Now up over $57, I want to see CVS hold above this zone. However, below $56 and the 20-day moving average may put channel support back in play.Should shares continue higher, look for a test of $60. That's where CVS will find channel resistance and the 200-day moving average. Top Stock Trades for Tomorrow 5: InvitaeInvitae (NASDAQ:NVTA) reported a really great quarter and rose nearly 20% in after-hours and pre-market trading. Those gains did not translate to the regular session though. The stock was up more than 13% at one point, but those gains have been axed in half toward the close. * 10 Stocks to Buy on the Trade War Dip If NVTA can hold up over $25, I'd consider it a positive development. Over Wednesday's high could easily send it to $30 if the broader market is cooperating. Below the 20-day and uptrend support, and NVTA may be headed to the 50-day currently at $22.33.Bret Kenwell is the manager and author of Future Blue Chips and is on Twitter @BretKenwell. As of this writing, Bret Kenwell is long NVTA. More From InvestorPlace * 2 Toxic Pot Stocks You Should Avoid * 10 Stocks to Buy on the Trade War Dip * The 5 Highest-Rated Dow Stocks Right Now * 4 Cybersecurity Stocks to Buy for Long-Term Gains The post 5 Top Stock Trades for Thursday: TLT, WW, CVS, NVTA, MU appeared first on InvestorPlace.
A wave of pessimism surrounding trade news has pushed the U.S. Treasury yields down, raising demand for the safe-haven bonds in turn, especially the long-dated ones.
Aug. 1: This has been a week dominated by the Federal Reserve, with Wednesday’s meeting leading to repositioning by traders at the start of the week, and then a violent [Wednesday] afternoon saw much of this upended by a very messy [Fed] news conference. Although the Federal Open Market Committee delivered its 25-basis-point “cut without a cause,” there had been a view held within the market that a 50-bp cut would be delivered. More serious was the sense that [Fed] Chairman Jerome Powell is starting to lose control of his audience both within the FOMC and outside the institution.
Is it time to turn away from TINA? TINA, of course, is the acronym for There Is No Alternative, in this case to common stocks, especially U.S. equities. Low interest rates make bonds unattractive and risky, according to this line of thinking, Alternative investments, such as private equity and hedge funds, are TINA’s version of a private dancer, promising an exclusive performance for those sufficiently well-heeled to pay for it.
As the broad stock market and many other corners felt the pain of the proposed tariff, it triggered a flight to safety. Given this, investors should stash their cash in some safe investing zones.
Fixed-income ETF investors have been diving back into Treasury bonds and related exchange traded funds, with Treasury prices pushing higher despite the Federal Reserve’s indication of only a single rate ...
Invesco Vice Chairman of Investments Krishna Memani says President Trump's got a valid point and calls previous FED moves misplaced policy tightening as Wall Street prepares for the FED to cut interest rates.
Just when it seemed that U.S. stocks were heading for a third down day on Thursday after hitting new all-time highs early in the week, the Fed came to the rescue once again. This time around, New York Fed President John Williams said in a speech that "it's better to take preventative measures than to wait for disaster to unfold." Essentially, Williams appeared to be advocating a swifter and more aggressive approach to cutting interest rates than what had previously been expected. Stock indexes had been falling deeper into the red on Thursday before Williams' speech but quickly reversed and moved higher on this new sign of enhanced Fed dovishness.
Ray Dalio mentioned in a LinkedIn post on Wednesday that it's important for investors to explore the market paradigm in which they're currently operating.
The booming demand for government debt demonstrates that while the S&P 500 reaches new highs, many individual investors remain cautious.
The Global CIO of fixed income at BlackRock said the Federal Reserve should aggressively cut interest rates.
Yahoo Finance's Jessica Smith spoke with U.S. Representative Maxine Waters following Fed Chair Jerome Powell's testimony. She joins Seana Smith on 'The Ticker' to discuss.