76.25 +0.33 (0.43%)
Pre-Market: 9:25AM EDT
|Bid||75.72 x 500|
|Ask||76.30 x 500|
|Day's Range||75.42 - 76.24|
|52 Week Range||64.65 - 80.96|
|PE Ratio (TTM)||340.49|
|Expense Ratio (net)||0.14%|
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics releases a monthly report that tracks price trends in wholesale markets. Industries from the manufacturing sector (XLI) are surveyed for changes in input prices, and this survey data is used to construct the PPI (Producer Price Index). The survey comprises questions on raw material prices, production levels, and finished goods.
3M (MMM) is expected to post an adjusted EPS (earnings per share) of $2.51 in 1Q18—an increase of 16.2% compared to 1Q17. In 1Q17, 3M reported an adjusted EPS of $2.16. If 3M can beat Wall Street analysts’ expectations, it would continue its trend of beating the estimates in every quarter last year.
There was a time when GE Capital paid dividends to General Electric (GE). After some significant disclosures, GE took a $6.2 billion hit in GE Capital’s insurance portfolio. GE also declared that it would inject $15.0 billion into the Capital business’s reserves over the next seven years.
Stanley Black & Decker (SWK) is set to announce its 1Q18 earnings on April 20, 2018, before the market opens. It plans to hold a conference call that day at 8:00 AM EST. In this series, we’ll look at SWK’s stock performance since its 4Q17 earnings and analysts’ revenue and EPS (earnings per share) estimates and recommendations.
Honeywell (HON) is set to announce its 1Q18 earnings on April 20, 2018, before the market opens. It plans to hold a conference call that day, at 7:30 AM EST (Eastern Standard Time). In this series, we’ll look at Honeywell’s stock performance since its 4Q17 earnings, and analysts’ revenue and EPS (earnings per share) estimates and recommendations. We’ll also compare HON’s latest valuation and short interest with peers’.
Analysts expect CSX (CSX) to register an operating margin of 32.2% in 1Q18. This expectation represents a potential 1.4% expansion compared to last year’s operating margin of 30.8%. For 2018, analysts expect the company to attain an operating margin of 35.5%, indicating an expansion of 1.8% over its 2017 margin of 33.8%.
Although markets seem to be shaking off their initial worries about tariffs and their unintended consequences—especially as they have yet to go into effect—Wells Fargo's Jay Bryson warns that if they are ultimately enacted, it could lead to higher material, labor, and other overhead costs for a number of American industries, either directly or indirectly. Some of the sectors facing higher costs from tariffs seem fairly apparent, writes Bryson. For example, the aircraft manufacturing industry looks especially vulnerable, as some 67% of the input costs for the group are at risk of higher pricing, either directly or indirectly, from the announced list of tariffs.
The non-farm payrolls for March rose by 103,000, which was below the consensus expectation of 193,000 jobs being added and way below the February number of 326,000 jobs. The unemployment rate for March remained unchanged at 4.1%.
The US Bureau of Economic Analysis publishes a monthly report on US international trade in goods and services that details the changes in imports and exports. The latest report indicated that the goods and services deficit was $57.6 billion in February, an increase of $0.9 billion from $56.7 billion in January. The trade deficit is currently at a nine-year high, and this could be cited as one of the key reasons the Trump administration has taken steps to increase trade barriers.
As is evident from its policy decisions, which include rate cuts, trade wars, and the easing of lending via the amendment of the Dodd-Frank Act, the Trump administration is pushing for domestic manufacturing. Railroads (XLI) could see improved traction and consistent growth amid improving coal and industrial output in 2018. Berkshire Hathaway’s (BRK.B) BNSF consistently grew its business in 2017 on higher operating profits aided by investments made to improve efficiency.
The big swings have inevitably led to investors questioning if leaders like tech, or markets in general, are witnessing the end of the big bull run. By contrast, Calvasina believes that industrials are a better long-term buy, given dislocations from trade fears.
The smallest US Class I railroad, Kansas City Southern (KSU), reported a high-single-digit fall in its carload traffic in Week 13 of 2018, by 7.1% YoY (year-over-year). The company hauled ~23,500 carloads in 2018, ~1,800 fewer than in Week 13 of 2017. In contrast, US railroads’ (XLI) carload volumes rose 2.8%.
The largest US Class I railroad, Union Pacific (UNP), saw its carload traffic fall 2.7% in Week 13 of 2018. The company moved ~92,000 railcars that week, compared with ~94,500 railcars in the same week last year. Whereas UNP’s carload traffic fell, rival BNSF Railway’s (BRK.B) carload traffic grew 7.3%, and US railroads (XLI) overall saw carload traffic growth.
ADP, a human capital management solutions provider, releases a monthly report on US non-farm employment. Changes to the level of hiring and gains in employment across different sectors in the United States are captured in the report. ADP processes the payrolls of more than 24 million workers in the United States, which gives the organization a unique insight into the US employment market.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (or BEA), which is a part of the US Department of Commerce, releases a monthly report on personal income, disposable personal income, and personal consumption expenditures of US consumers. As per the latest report from the BEA, personal income increased by 0.4% in February, which was the same level of wage growth in January.
What Do these 10 Economic Indicators Signal for the US Economy? The Institute of Supply Management (or ISM) publishes a monthly manufacturing report on changes in new orders, supplier deliveries, inventories, production, and employment. The ISM New Order Index is a diffusion index that is based on a monthly survey involving 400 industries (XLI) from the US.
What Do these 10 Economic Indicators Signal for the US Economy? The establishment survey conducted by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reports the number of hours worked by manufacturing sector workers. The manufacturing sector employs a considerable portion of the US workforce.
The FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) updated its economic projections for the US economy at its recently concluded March meeting. Along with a statement that included a 0.25% rate hike, the FOMC released its upgraded economic projections through its Summary of Economic Projections (or SEP) report. The report is released four times per year and contains Fed members’ projections for GDP growth, inflation (TIP), unemployment, and the policy interest rate.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (or BEA) released the third and final estimate for the fourth quarter GDP, indicating that the US economy has improved at an annual rate of 2.9% in the fourth quarter. The third estimate was above the second estimate of 2.5% and below the third quarter GDP growth rate of 3.2%. On an annual basis, real GDP increased 2.3% in 2017 compared to the 1.5% increase in 2016.
Is There Light at the End of the Tunnel for General Electric? General Electric (GE) announced a 50% cut in its quarterly cash dividend to shareowners in November 2017. GE’s chair and CEO, John Flannery, said, “We understand the importance of this decision to our shareowners and we have not made it lightly.
Tariffs can lead to trade wars, and the threat of trade wars scares markets, as we've seen in recent weeks. Davis argues that lower price/earnings ratios on stocks are to be expected, as tariffs add risk, but that's more of a near-term issue. Over the next six to 12 months, a very different picture could emerge: One option is a global recession, but the other is that industries shake off tariffs and the cycle gets back on its upward trajectory "with potentially more upcycle juice than we even had before." Davis argues that China has more reasons to work with the U.S. than against it.