AllMarket Outlook
logoArgusSeptember 08, 2020

Daily Spotlight: Look for Big GDP Spike in 3Q

Market Outlook
Bullish - Short term
Summary

We continue to think that 2Q20 marked the trough of the recession, and that GDP results are going to improve through year-end and into 2021. How rapidly things improve, as we have said, depends on the status of public health and the number of COVID-19 cases in the U.S. Given all the uncertainty, economists' forecasts are all over the map. Members of the Federal Reserve call for a 6.5% GDP decline in 2020, a 5.0% rebound in 2021 and another year of above-trend growth (at 3.5%) in 2022. The Atlanta Fed GDPNow forecast calls for a 3Q rebound of 26%. Our quarterly forecasts call for a 6% increase in absolute GDP in 3Q from 2Q, which in our model translates to an annualized gain of 24.0%. Our annual forecasts now call for overall GDP to decline about 1% in 2020 and rebound 3.2% in 2021. The economic data that has emerged in recent weeks (ranging from consumer confidence and spending, to housing statistics and auto sales, and to manufacturing surveys and even financial market performance) illustrates that conditions are improving, yet serious risks remain.

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