AllMarket Outlook
logoArgusSeptember 11, 2020

Daily Spotlight: Global Rates Trends Mixed

Market Outlook
Bullish - Short term
Summary

Runaway inflation (an 11.8% rate) has sent Turkish 10-year bond rates soaring toward 14%. A relatively high inflation rate of 5% is also propping up 10-year bond rates in India (at 6.2%). But interest rates around the rest of the world are near all-time lows, as they are in the U.S. and the U.K. Some are even outright negative, as in Japan, France, Germany and Switzerland. In the U.S., the Federal Reserve has taken numerous extraordinary steps to keep financial markets functioning, and we don't look for the Fed to raise short-term rates for at least the next 12-18 months. At the same time, for several reasons, we do not expect the Fed to follow its European peers and establish negative interest rates in the U.S. First, the jury is out as to whether negative rates are actually helping economies recover. Second, money-market funds in the U.S. play an important role in the financial markets, and negative government bond yields would "break the buck." Our advice to fixed-income investors seeking yield is to consider ETF specializing in securitized debt, corporate debt, and high-yield or floating bonds.

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