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logoArgusNovember 20, 2020

Daily Spotlight: Argus Oil Price Forecasts

Market Outlook
Bullish - Short term
Summary

Our 2020 forecast for the average price of a barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude oil is $38, and our preliminary forecast for 2020 is $44. Our estimates assume OPEC and OPEC+ members continue to coordinate on production cuts and on gradually improving global economic activity into 2021. Our price target also reflects the long-term downtrend for crude prices as Peak Oil approaches: recent average annual prices were $57 in 2019, $65 in 2018, $51 in 2017, $43 in 2016, $49 in 2015, $93 in 2014 and $98 in 2013. We anticipate that President-elect Biden's policy will favor clean energy initiatives rather than carbon-based energy solutions. Our range through 2021 is now $50 on the upside and $30 on the downside. Given volatility in oil prices, our investment recommendation on the Energy sector is now Under-Weight. The current weight for the sector in the S&P 500 is approximately 2.5%, down from the 7%-8% range in 2013-2014. Within the group, we favor companies with strong balance sheets and a history of growing dividends.

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