AllMarket Outlook
logoArgusFebruary 17, 2021

Daily Spotlight: Argus Adjusts Oil Price Forecast for 2021

Market Outlook
Bearish - Short term
Summary

Our 2021 forecast for the average price of a barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude oil is now $53, up from our preliminary forecast of $41. Our estimates assume OPEC and OPEC+ members continue to coordinate on production cuts and on gradually improving global economic activity this year. Our target price also reflects the long-term downtrend for crude prices as Peak Oil approaches. Here are recent average annual prices: $40 in 2020, $57 in 2019, $65 in 2018, $51 in 2017, $43 in 2016, $49 in 2015, $93 in 2014 and $98 in 2013. We anticipate that President Biden's policies will favor clean energy initiatives rather than carbon-based energy solutions. Our range through 2021 is now $65 on the upside and $35 on the downside. Given the volatility in oil prices, our investment rec

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