AllMarket Outlook
logoArgusMarch 25, 2021

Daily Spotlight: Final 4Q GDP Reading: 4.3%

Market Outlook
Bullish - Short term

The U.S. Department of Commerce announced that its "third" estimate for 2Q20 GDP growth was a rate of 4.3%. This represents a return to more-normal GDP results after 30% swings down and up in 2Q20 and 3Q20. The report also includes an inflation gauge, the PCE price index. This index, excluding food and energy, rose at a 1.3% pace, well below the Federal Reserve's inflation target of 2.0%. Although the economy has expanded for two quarters in a row, the National Bureau of Economic Research has not yet declared that the recession is over. At $21.49 trillion, the U.S. economy at the end of 4Q was still below its pre-pandemic highs of $21.75 trillion. Some segments of the economy are back to or above pre-pandemic highs. These segments include consumer spending on durable and nondurable goods, and investment into residential and intellectual property products. Other segments continue to lag, such as exports, consumer spending on services, and investment into structures. We anticipate a pick-up in economic growth in 2021, due in part to aggressive government spending.

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