AllMarket Outlook
logoArgusOctober 21, 2021

Daily Spotlight: Bond Spreads Narrowing

Market Outlook
Bullish - Short term
Summary

Treasury bond yields have been rising in recent weeks on concerns that inflation may not be as transitory as earlier thought. Corporate bond yields have meanwhile declined, as investors are now more optimistic about the potential for lower default rates. As a consequence, spreads between corporate and Treasury bond yields have continued to narrow. The spread between AAA-rated corporate bonds and 10-year government bonds in September was 116 basis points, below the 35-year average of 124 bps and down 20 bps from January. The gap between the government 10-year bond yield and a BAA-rated bond (still investment grade) in September was 186 basis points, below the historical average spread of 232 bps and down more than 30 basis points from January. From a risk-management standpoint, we watch these spreads closely to gauge the bond

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