The United States economy is full of innovation. It has to be. Manufacturing industries that dominated the economy decades ago - textiles, televisions, even automobiles to a large degree - have moved overseas, where labor and materials costs are lower. Yet the U.S. economy, even during the pandemic and the current period of high inflation, has expanded to record levels. If U.S. corporations weren't innovating, creating new products (such as vaccines and AI) and services (such as Zoom calls) and moving into new markets, the domestic economy would not be growing, and capital would not be flooding into the country. The current high level of the U.S. dollar relative to currencies around the world attests to the confidence that global investors have in the durable and innovative U.S. economy.

After many months of a strong market, but many bearish momentum divergences, the S&P 500 (SPX) finally cracked (a bit) and is currently testing its 50-day average. This is the first time the SPX has touched its 50-day since early November. It is also the first time since the pullback last summer that the 50-day relative strength index (RSI) has fallen below 50, a sign of at least some short-term trouble. A sustained break below the 50-day average would most likely open the door to the 4,800 region -- where the bottom of the bullish channel comes in, as does a 38.2% retracement of the rally since October.

U.S. markets were mixed on Friday morning, but are still on track for gains for the week. On the earnings front, FedEx (FDX) rose 7% on an earnings beat, while Nike (NKE) was down about 7% on a weak outlook. The Dow was down 0.5%, the S&P 500 fell 0.1% and the Nasdaq gained less than 0.1%. Crude oil traded above $80 per barrel, while gold fell $16 to $2169 per ounce.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

This weekend, in Vegas, it's the Chiefs versus the 49ers. Usher is the halftime show; Tom Brady appears in a commercial; and Taylor Swift fans add a whole new demographic to the fan base. But aside from all that, there is big money at stake. For our list this week, we present possible ways to invest in the Super Bowl.

Stocks closed higher on Thursday as investors digested new economic data. The January ISM Manufacturing PMI index registered a reading of 49.1, up from 47.1 in December, with growth in new orders, production, and prices, while backlogs, employment and inventories contracted. The S&P Global's reading of 50.7 is up from 47.9 in December, with an increase in new orders, and both input and output prices and employment increased fractionally. U.S. construction spending rose 0.9% in December, following a 0.4% increase in November. Meta Platforms (META) reported after the close and was up more than 14% within an hour after releasing results. Likewise, Amazon.com (AMZN) rose nearly 13%. The S&P 500 closed up 1.3%, the Dow 0.1% and the Nasdaq gained 1.3%. Crude oil fell to just below $73 per barrel, while gold was up $5 to $2072 per ounce.

Treasury yields continue to provide an impetus for further equity strength, as the 10-year yield fell to 4.17% on Tuesday from 5% in late October, the five-year dropped to 4.14% from 5%, and the two-year hit 4.57% from 5.24% in mid-October. Key technical levels for the five- and 10-year start at 4.2% and run down to 4%; for the two-year, the next key level is at 4.25%.

Sustainable Impact Investing, or ESG investing, is gaining traction not only with Argus Research clients but also with the global investment community. BlackRock CEO Lawrence Fink, who oversees approximately $9 trillion in assets, announced in January 2020 that his firm would be investing in companies that are making progress on sustainability. He doubled down in his January 2021 letter, calling on company managements to disclose their plans for making their businesses "compatible with a net-zero economy" by 2050. As assets have flowed in over the past 40 years, Sustainable Impact Investing has evolved. The discipline, originally known as Socially Responsible Investing, focused at first on excluding companies that conducted business in South Africa, or participated in industries such as tobacco, alcohol, and firearms. Performance of these initial strategies lagged, and the approach has been modified. Now, instead of merely identifying industries to avoid, the discipline promotes "sustainable" business practices across all industries that can have an "impact" on global issues such as climate, hunger, poverty, disease, shelter, and workers' rights.

Sustainable Impact Investing, or ESG investing, is gaining traction not only with Argus Research clients but also with the global investment community. BlackRock CEO Lawrence Fink, who oversees approximately $9 trillion in assets, announced in January 2020 that his firm would be investing in companies that are making progress on sustainability. He doubled down in his January 2021 letter, calling on company managements to disclose their plans for making their businesses "compatible with a net-zero economy" by 2050. As assets have flowed in over the past 40 years, Sustainable Impact Investing has evolved. The discipline, originally known as Socially Responsible Investing, focused at first on excluding companies that conducted business in South Africa, or participated in industries such as tobacco, alcohol, and firearms. Performance of these initial strategies lagged, and the approach has been modified. Now, instead of merely identifying industries to avoid, the discipline promotes "sustainable" business practices across all industries that can have an "impact" on global issues such as climate, hunger, poverty, disease, shelter, and workers' rights.

Stocks rose strongly on Friday morning after lower-than-expected employment growth raised the likelihood of an end to the Fed's rate hike campaign. The Labor Department said that the U.S. economy added 150,000 payroll jobs in October, down from a revised 297,000 in September and below the Reuters consensus forecast of 180,000. In other signs of a cooling labor market, the unemployment rate edged up to 3.9% from 3.8% a month earlier and annual growth in average hourly earnings slowed to 4.1% from 4.3%. The Dow rose 0.7%, the S&P 0.9%, and the Nasdaq 1.2%. Crude oil traded near $82 per barrel, while gold rose $8 to $2002 per ounce.

Investing in the Cloud is not for the faint of heart -- but we see upside. Alphabet lost a steep 10% in one day last week after investors expressed their disappointment over growth in its cloud business. That same day, Microsoft surged after reporting better-than-expected growth in its Azure OpenAI cloud service. The race is on, and some will win and some will lose along the way. But the potential pie is big. In the internet era, in which digital commerce complements or has supplanted physical commerce, the information technology needs of all enterprises have grown. The traditional on-premises approach has been rendered inefficient, given that a user's IT needs may fluctuate at any time. Into this void, the Cloud has arrived. In Cloud services models, an enterprise's IT needs can be matched and scaled in real time. Through the Cloud, enterprises consume only as much computing, storage, and networking bandwidth as they need. For a major event, this allows massive scaling of IT resources beyond the restraints of on-premises implementation. For periods in which operations are steady, the Cloud services model allows for a needs-only application. The leading providers of Cloud services tend to be large Technology and Communication Services companies that provide many goods and services distinct from or adjacent to their Cloud businesses. Growth has been impressive for this group. Collectively, participants in the Cloud eco-system grew revenue at a 19% compound annual growth rate from 2016 to 2022. Still, the line isn't straight up. While Cloud services grew at a 23% growth rate from 2020 to 2021, the average growth rate slowed to 15.3% for 2022. This slowdown in revenue growth reflected impediments to normal business activity from the supply-chain crisis, inflation, and rising interest rates. Even so, demand for Cloud services has held up relatively well, given that Cloud transition is a long-tailed process and that Cloud transformation has become an imperative. Here is a list of U.S.-based companies followed by Argus and that we think are in position to take advantage of this secular trend.

Innovation may be hard to define. But to borrow from former U.S. Supreme Court Justice Potter Stewart, you know it when you see it. The United States economy is full of innovation. It has to be. Manufacturing industries that dominated the economy decades ago - textiles, televisions, even automobiles to a large degree - have moved overseas, where labor and materials costs are lower. Yet the U.S. economy, even during the pandemic and the current period of high inflation, has expanded to record levels. If U.S. corporations weren't innovating, creating new products (such as vaccines) and services (such as Zoom calls) and moving into new markets and applications, the domestic economy would not be growing, and capital would not be flooding into the country. The current high level of the U.S. dollar relative to currencies around the world attests to the confidence that global investors have in the durable and innovative U.S. economy.

The Commerce Department will update its forecast for 2Q23 GDP this morning. Last month, in its second estimate, the government indicated that 2Q GDP rose at an annualized 2.1% pace, up slightly from the 2.0% growth rate in 1Q23. We think that rate will hold steady, though we note that any surprise is likely to occur on the upside. As is typically the case, the report will indicate areas of strength and weakness in the economy. On the positive side, the consumer appears to be in good shape, with Personal Consumption Expenditures expanding at a 1%-2% pace, driven by spending on Services. Companies continue to invest in R&D projects and software, as Investments into Intellectual Property are advancing at a rate that is faster than overall GDP growth. Government spending has picked up as well during the past year. On the downside, Residential Investment has weakened as interest rates have risen, though the sector seems to be bottoming; and Exports of Goods have been challenged by the strong dollar. The GDP report also includes an inflation measure, the PCE Price Index. This index, excluding food and energy, is rising at a 3.7% pace, well ahead the Federal Reserve's inflation target of 2.0%. We don't expect the results of this report to move the markets much, as the data is already almost three months old. The first report on 3Q23 GDP will come out later in October. The current reading of the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow indicator is 4.9%. The current Argus forecast, last published in our Viewpoint report, is not quite as aggressive at 4.0%, but still likely reflects the high-water-mark for GDP growth in 2023.

The growth prospects for the artificial intelligence (AI) universe are impressive, yet hard to determine. Argus has derived a model of the size and scope of the global AI industry, based on our coverage of the major publicly-traded players and most of the mid-tier players, along with our industry analysts' knowledge of private players. We estimate the global AI industry amounted to about $90-$100 billion in 2021, and expect it to grow at a 40% CAGR through 2030, when it is expected to reach $1.8 trillion in annual revenue. We expect annual growth to decelerate from the low- to mid-40% range in immediate years to the mid-30% range for years toward the end of the survey period. But determining a realistic estimate for the size of the industry is a challenge. Even for an industry that promises to redefine measuring tools, there is no measurable unit of AI output comparable to barrels of oil or tons of steel. As well, much of AI development occurs within labs and at universities, and the output is measured in tangible progress against objectives, not dollars or units of output. In the corporate world, nearly all the AI pure-play companies service micro-niches, have little measurable revenue, and are deeply unprofitable. For our list this week, we take a big picture view of three areas where AI applications are developing. In Big Tech, we believe much of the revenue and most of the profitability from AI is attributable to several giant U.S. and a few international companies that operate primarily in growth sectors such as Technology, Communication Services, and Consumer Discretionary. Next, we note that China is also a hub of AI development, with companies like Alibaba, Baidu, and Tencent (though Argus follows only Alibaba). Finally, Niche Tech has significant AI activity among companies pursuing advances in IoT, vehicle electrification, autonomous driving, automation and connectivity solutions for manufacturing, warehousing, construction, and other areas. Here are featured companies followed by Argus in those three categories.

In this edition, global EV adoption rate to rise; patience will be rewarded for U.S. REIT investors; key takeaways from renewable energy conference; and Fortrea Holdings, Apple, and Bristol-Myers Squibb.

U.S. equities rose on Wednesday morning. The Labor Department said that its all-items consumer price index rose 3.7% on a year-over-year basis in August, up from a 3.2% year-over-year increase in and slightly above the consensus forecast of 3.6%. Rising energy prices drove the increase. Excluding food and energy prices, the core CPI rose 4.3% from the prior year, down from 4.7% in July. The S&P 500 rose 0.3%, the Dow 0.2% and the Nasdaq was up 0.5%. Crude oil is trading near $89 per barrel, while gold traded at $1935 per ounce.

Stocks recouped some of their recent losses on Friday morning following the government's July employment report. The Labor Department said that the U.S. economy added 187,000 payroll jobs in July, up from a revised 185,000 in June but below the Reuters consensus of 200,000. The unemployment rate ticked lower to 3.5% from 3.6% in June, and wage growth was stronger than expected. Average hourly earnings rose 4.4% from the prior year, above the consensus forecast of 4.2%. The Dow rose 0.6%, the S&P 0.6%, and the Nasdaq 0.8%. Crude oil rose 1% to $82.50 per barrel, while gold rose $8 to $1977 per ounce.

In this edition, streaming services changing their channels; BRP looks promising; China's AI is calling; and Autoliv, Sirius XM, and American Express.

The Commerce Department will update its forecast for GDP this morning. Last month, in its last estimate, the government indicated that 1Q GDP rose at an annualized 1.3% pace, down from 2.6% growth in 4Q22. We think that will hold steady, though we note that any surprise is likely to occur on the upside. As is typically the case, the report will indicate areas of strength and weakness in the economy. On the positive side, the consumer appears to be in good shape, with Personal Consumption Expenditures expanding at a 1%-2% pace, driven by spending on services and, more recently, on durable goods. Companies continue to invest in R&D projects and software, as investments into intellectual property are advancing at a high-single-digit rate. Government spending has picked up as well. On the downside, residential investment has declined sharply as interest rates have risen, though the sector seems to be bottoming; and exports of goods have been challenged by the strong dollar. The GDP report also includes an inflation measure, the PCE Price Index. This index, excluding food and energy, is rising at a 5.0% pace, well ahead the Federal Reserve's inflation target of 2.0%. We don't expect the results of this report to move the markets much, as the data is almost three months old. The first report on 2Q23 GDP will come out in late July. The current reading of the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow indicator is 1.9%. The current Argus forecast, last published in our Viewpoint report, is a bit more aggressive at 2.5%, due in part to expectations for continued consumer sector strength.

Stocks edged higher on Tuesday morning, led by gains in the Financial and Consumer Discretionary sectors. The World Bank issued mixed forecasts for the global economy. It expects global GDP to increase 2.1% this year, up from its prior forecast of 1.7% but down from 3.1% growth in 2022. The revision included a higher growth forecast for the U.S., to 1.1% from 0.5%, and for China, to 5.6% from 4.3%. At the same time, the bank cut its global growth forecast for 2024 to 2.4% from 2.7%. The Dow was flat, the S&P rose 0.2%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.3%. Crude oil traded near $72 per barrel, while gold rose slightly to $1975 per ounce.

Sustainable Impact Investing, or ESG investing, is gaining traction not only with Argus Research clients but also with the global investment community. BlackRock CEO Lawrence Fink, who oversees approximately $9 trillion in assets, announced in January 2020 that his firm would be investing in companies that are making progress on sustainability. He doubled down in his January 2021 letter, calling on company managements to disclose their plans for making their businesses "compatible with a net-zero economy" by 2050. As assets have flowed in over the past 40 years, Sustainable Impact Investing has evolved. The discipline, originally known as Socially Responsible Investing, focused at first on excluding companies that conducted business in South Africa, or participated in industries such as tobacco, alcohol, and firearms. Performance of these initial strategies lagged, and the approach has been modified. Now, instead of merely identifying industries to avoid, the discipline promotes "sustainable" business practices across all industries that can have an "impact" on global issues such as climate, hunger, poverty, disease, shelter, and workers' rights.

Innovation may be hard to define but, to borrow from former U.S. Supreme Court Justice Potter Stewart, you know it when you see it. The United States economy is full of innovation. It has to be. Manufacturing industries that dominated the economy decades ago - textiles, televisions, even automobiles, to a large degree - have moved overseas, where costs are lower. Yet the U.S. economy is at its largest point in history and still growing. If U.S. corporations weren't innovating, creating new products and services, and moving into new markets and applications, the domestic economy would be contracting, not expanding, and capital would not be flooding into the country. Particularly at this juncture of the market and economic cycles, when uncertainty is high due to high inflation and rising interest rates, we look to innovative companies to successfully navigate the challenges. At Argus, an 88-year-old independent research firm that has innovated a time or two in its long history, we have focused on four types of innovative companies: Industry Disruptors; First to Market; New Product Specialists; and Product & Process Perfectors. Here are some examples of companies, featured in our Innovation Theme Model Portfolio.

Stocks fell again on Thursday amid pressures on regional banks and debt ceiling concerns as investors awaited the April employment report on Friday morning. On the earnings front, e-commerce software provider Shopify surged 24% after posting better-than-expected 1Q results, while Paramount Global plunged 28% after reporting disappointing sales and earnings and cutting its dividend. On the employment front, the Labor Department said that first-time claims for state unemployment benefits rose by 13,000 to a seasonally adjusted 242,000 for the week ended April 29, slightly above the Reuters consensus of 240,000. Continuing claims, reported with a one-week lag, fell by 38,000 to 1.805 million. The Dow fell 0.86%, the S&P 0.72%, and the Nasdaq 0.49%. Crude oil traded near $68.50 per barrel, while gold rose $21 to $2058 per ounce.

Innovation may be hard to define. But to borrow from former U.S. Supreme Court Justice Potter Stewart, you know it when you see it. The United States economy is full of innovation. It has to be. Manufacturing industries that dominated the economy decades ago - textiles, televisions, even automobiles to a large degree - have moved overseas, where labor and materials costs are lower. Yet the U.S. economy, even during the pandemic and the current period of high inflation, has expanded to record levels. If U.S. corporations weren't innovating, creating new products (such as vaccines) and services (such as Zoom calls) and moving into new markets and applications, the domestic economy would not be growing, and capital would not be flooding into the country. The current high level of the U.S. dollar relative to currencies around the world attests to the confidence that global investors have in the durable and innovative U.S. economy.

We recently raised our rating on the Technology sector to Over-Weight from Market-Weight. As interest rates start to fall, IT demand in enterprise and data center markets is holding up. And mounting interest in ChatGPT could herald the age of AI, which could be a huge industry driver. Over the long term, we expect the Technology sector to benefit from pervasive digitization across the economy, greater acceptance of transformative technologies, and the development of the Internet of Things (IoT). Healthy company and sector fundamentals are also positive. For individual companies, these include high cash levels, low debt, and broad international business exposure. The sector is outperforming the market thus far in 2023, with a gain of 12.4%. Tech underperformed the market in 2022, with a loss of 28.9%, and outperformed in 2021, with a gain of 33.4%. The P/E ratio on projected 2023 earnings is 23, above the market multiple. Earnings are expected to grow 14.5% in 2023 after having fallen 3.3% in 2022. Earnings rose 37.9% in 2021 and 7.7% in 2020. The sector's debt ratios are below the market average, as is the average dividend yield of 0.5%. Here is how we use our analysts' Technology sector ideas in our Focus List and Model Portfolios.

In the near term, the S&P 500 (SPX) is heading toward several important pieces of resistance following the rally off the March 13 intraday low of 3,809. Back in the latter part of February, the SPX broke down out of a bearish wedge, backtested the lower line of the pattern, and continued lower. From the February 2 closing high to the recent closing low, the index gave up almost 8% (or 324 points). Based on the size of the wedge, a minimum target was down at 3,656 -- which the index didn't come close to hitting.

The Commerce Department will update its forecast for GDP this morning. Last month, in its second estimate, the government indicated that 4Q GDP rose at an annualized 2.7% pace. We think that will hold steady, though we note that any surprise is likely to occur on the upside. As is typically the case, the report will indicate areas of strength and weakness in the economy. On the positive side, the consumer appears to be in good shape, with Personal Consumption Expenditures expanding at a 1%-2% pace, driven by spending on Services. Companies continue to invest in R&D projects and software, as Investments into Intellectual Property are advancing at a high-single-digit rate. Government spending has picked up as well. On the downside, Residential Investment has declined sharply as interest rates increased; Consumer Spending on Durable Goods has been lower due to supply-chain problems in the auto sector; and Exports of Goods have been challenged by the strong dollar. The GDP report also includes an inflation measure, the PCE Price Index. This index, excluding food and energy, is rising at a 4.3% pace, well ahead the Federal Reserve's inflation target of 2.0%. We don't expect the results of this report to move the markets much, as the data is already almost three months old. The first report on 1Q23 GDP will come out later in April. The current reading of the Atlanta Fed's GDP Now indicator is 3.2%. The current Argus forecast, last published in our Viewpoint report, is more conservative at 1.3%, due in part to a forecast pullback in inventory building.

Will favorable seasonals trump the current bearish breadth statistics? That is a major question for the stock market. If we were to rank the two issues, breadth is much more important than seasonals. There is a lot of potentially important news from over the weekend, as UBS agreed to buy Credit Suisse while the Fed and five other central banks will boost liquidity in their standing U.S. dollar swap arrangements. This sure feels like previous times for the financial markets! The endless global liquidity pump is always in the wings, waiting to flood the system again and again and again.

In this edition, Apple's Walled Garden Should Bear Fruit; SVB Facing Unique Liquidity Crunch ; Spinoffs Move XPO in Good Direction; and John Wiley & Sons, Crane, and ConvaTec Group

The major indices wavered between gains and losses on Friday morning after Thursday's sharp selloff and a mixed February employment report. The Labor Department said that the U.S. economy added 311,000 payroll jobs last month, well above the consensus forecast; however, growth in average hourly earnings slowed to 0.2% from 0.3% in January and the unemployment rate rose to 3.6% from 3.4%. Media reports indicated that embattled SVB Financial was seeking a buyer after the stock plunged more than 60% on Thursday; trading in the shares was halted on Friday morning. The Dow fell 0.1%, the S&P 0.2%, and the Nasdaq 0.4%. Crude oil rose to $77 per barrel, while gold jumped $25 to $1859 per ounce.

Stocks were mixed on Friday morning after a much better-than-expected jobs report raised prospects for additional Fed rate hikes. The Labor Department reported that the U.S. economy added 517,000 payroll jobs in January, up from 260,000 in December and well above the Reuters consensus forecast of 185,000. The official unemployment rate ticked down to 3.4% from 3.5% in December. The Dow rose 0.2%, the S&P fell 0.1%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.1%. Crude oil fell 1% to $75 per barrel, while gold dropped more than 2% to $1880 per ounce.

Stocks extended their Fed-driven rally on Thursday, led by strong gains in the Communication Services, Consumer Discretionary, and Technology sectors. Meta Platforms jumped 23%, despite disappointing 4Q earnings, as investors focused on the company's better-than-expected revenue, cost-cutting efforts, and new share buyback plan. On the employment front, first-time claims for state unemployment benefits fell by 3,000 to 183,000 for the week ended January 28, below the Reuters consensus forecast of 200,000. The data came ahead of the government's January employment report on Friday morning. The consensus estimate calls for 185,000 new payroll jobs, down from 223,000 in December, and an unemployment rate of 3.6%, up from 3.5% a month earlier. The Dow fell 0.11%, the S&P rose 1.47%, and the Nasdaq soared 3.25%. Crude oil traded near $76 per barrel, while gold fell $16 to $1927 per ounce.

Sustainable Impact Investing, or ESG investing, is gaining traction not only with Argus Research clients but also with the global investment community. BlackRock CEO Lawrence Fink, who oversees approximately $9 trillion in assets, announced in January 2020 that his firm would be investing in companies that are making progress on sustainability. He doubled down in his January 2021 letter, calling on company managements to disclose their plans for making their businesses "compatible with a net-zero economy" by 2050. As assets have flowed in over the past 40 years, Sustainable Impact Investing has evolved. The discipline, originally known as Socially Responsible Investing, focused at first on excluding companies that conducted business in South Africa, or participated in industries such as tobacco, alcohol, and firearms. Performance of these initial strategies lagged, and the approach has been modified. Now, instead of merely identifying industries to avoid, the discipline promotes "sustainable" business practices across all industries that can have an "impact" on global issues such as climate, hunger, poverty, disease, shelter, and workers' rights.

Stocks rallied on Friday morning as investors looked past weak 3Q results and disappointing guidance from Amazon. Energy shares rose, as both Exxon and Chevron reported much stronger-than-expected earnings. On the housing front, the National Association of Realtors said that its pending home sales index fell 10.2% to 79.5 in September. The Reuters consensus forecast had called for a smaller decline of 5.0%. The Dow rose 1.6%, the S&P 1.3%, and the Nasdaq 1.4%. Crude oil fell 1% to $88 per barrel, while gold traded near $1645 per ounce.

Innovation may be hard to define. But to borrow from former U.S. Supreme Court Justice Potter Stewart, you know it when you see it. The United States economy is full of innovation. It has to be. Manufacturing industries that dominated the economy decades ago - textiles, televisions, even automobiles to a large degree - have moved overseas, where labor and materials costs are lower. Yet the U.S. economy, even during the pandemic and the current period of high inflation, has expanded to record levels. If U.S. corporations weren't innovating, creating new products (such as vaccines) and services (such as Zoom calls) and moving into new markets and applications, the domestic economy would not be growing, and capital would not be flooding into the country. The current high level of the U.S. dollar relative to currencies around the world attests to the confidence that global investors have in the innovative U.S. economy.

Stocks close on Thursday higher after a volatile day. Weekly jobless claims unexpectedly declined to 222,000 unemployment claims, against estimates for 246,000 claims. Fed Chair Powell emphasized that he is committed to fighting inflation, leading to expectations that the central bank will raise rates by 75 basis points at the next policy meeting. Crude oil traded at $82.73 per barrel, while gold fell to $1719 per ounce. The Dow rose 0.6%, the S&P 500 rose 0.7% and the Nasdaq was up 0.6%.

Stocks rose again on Friday morning, led by gains in the Consumer Discretionary and Energy sectors, as investors looked past Thursday's weak GDP numbers. Apple rose nearly 3% and Amazon nearly 11% following strong earnings reports. Exxon and Chevron also rallied after posting record profits. The Dow rose 0.5%, the S&P 0.8%, and the Nasdaq 1.0%. Crude oil rose 4% to $100 per barrel, while gold traded near $1780 per ounce.

In trader lingo, Thursday was an "empty out and reversal day." The S&P 500 broke its recent low (which was last week's low) on another scorching inflation print (June PPI). But just like Wednesday's early CPI dip, the selling quickly ran out of steam and buyers stepped in. With terrible inflation reports, some disappointing numbers from a few major financial companies, and a litany of worries out of Europe and emerging markets, it felt like we would see a big down day and break to new bear-market lows. But that was not to be.

The U.S. Department of Commerce this morning announced that its "third" estimate for 1Q22 GDP was a decline of 1.6%. This was slightly below previous estimates but in line with the consensus outlook. Despite the negative number, we are not convinced that this data point indicates that the U.S. is headed for a near-term recession. There were just too many signs of core strength in the results, including a 5.9% increase in Personal Consumption Expenditures on Durable Goods, a 3.0% increase in PCE Services, a 14% increase in Investment in Equipment, and an 11% increase in Investment in Intellectual Property Products. To be sure, high gas prices are weighing on the economy (PCE Nondurable Goods declined 3.7%) as is the war in Ukraine (Exports declined 5%). Quirks remain, as Government spending declined 3% and Imports rose 19%. Neither of those latter trends seems sustainable, in our view. And looking ahead, we anticipate a modest rebound in overall GDP in 2022. As for 2023, we will need to see how high short-term interest rates go - and how fast they rise - over the remainder of the year.

Stocks plummeted on Thursday amid mounting recession fears, as investors continued to assess the impact of the Fed's 75-basis-point rate hike and the ability of the central bank to control inflation. The S&P fell to its lowest level since December 2020 and is now down 23% year-to-date. On the employment front, first-time claims for state unemployment benefits fell to 229,000 for the week ended June 11, down from 232,000 a week earlier but above the consensus estimate of 215,000. The Dow fell 2.42%, the S&P 3.25%, and the Nasdaq 4.08%. Crude oil traded near $117 per barrel, while gold soared 2% to $1860 per ounce.

Sustainable Impact Investing, or ESG investing, is gaining traction not only with Argus Research clients but also with the global investment community. BlackRock CEO Lawrence Fink, who oversees approximately $9 trillion in assets, announced in January 2020 that his firm would be investing in companies that are making progress on sustainability. He doubled down in his January 2021 letter, calling on company managements to disclose their plans for making their businesses "compatible with a net-zero economy" by 2050. As assets have flowed in over the past 40 years, Sustainable Impact Investing has evolved. The discipline, originally known as Socially Responsible Investing, focused at first on excluding companies that conducted business in South Africa, or participated in industries such as tobacco, alcohol, and firearms. Performance of these initial strategies lagged, and the approach has been modified. Now, instead of merely identifying industries to avoid, the discipline promotes "sustainable" business practices across all industries that can have an "impact" on global issues such as climate, hunger, poverty, disease, shelter, and workers' rights.

Stocks have struggled in 2022, in particular over the past two weeks. In response, several insider-sentiment readings from Vickers Stock Research are now positive -- suggesting that insiders are using the current dip as an opportunity to buy stocks at seemingly reduced prices.

Innovation may be hard to define. But to borrow from former U.S. Supreme Court Justice Potter Stewart, you know it when you see it. The United States economy is full of innovation. It has to be. Manufacturing industries that dominated the economy decades ago - textiles, televisions, even automobiles to a large degree - have moved overseas, where costs are lower. Yet the U.S. economy, even during the pandemic, has expanded to record levels. If U.S. corporations weren't innovating, creating new products (such as vaccines) and services and moving into new markets and applications, the domestic economy would not be growing, and capital would not be flooding into the country. Consider that U.S. GDP was approximately $1 trillion in 1930 but was more than $24 trillion at the end of 2021. That's growth of 24-times. Meanwhile, the U.S. population has grown less than three-times during that time span, to 320 million from 120 million. The delta between GDP growth and population growth has been driven, in large part, by innovation.

This morning, the U.S. Department of Commerce announced that its "third" estimate for the rate of growth in 4Q21 GDP was 6.9%. This was slightly below the previous estimates but in line with the consensus outlook. In our estimation, this will be the last time for a long time that the country experiences GDP growth in the 7.0% range. The 4Q period was post-Delta and pre-Omicron. In addition, since the end of the fourth quarter, Russia has invaded Ukraine and the Federal Reserve has started to raise short-term interest rates. These factors, as well as the inevitable emergence of new COVID strains, are likely to send GDP growth back down to the pre-pandemic level of 2.0%-3.0%. The GDP report also includes an inflation gauge, the PCE price index. This index, excluding food and energy, rose at a 5.0% pace, well ahead the Federal Reserve's inflation target of 2.0% and above the 4.6% rate recorded in 3Q21. Looking ahead, our forecast for 2022 GDP growth is now 3.1%, compared to our estimate for 2021 GDP growth of 5.6%.

Stocks finished lower on Thursday amid continued concerns about the war in Ukraine and surging consumer prices. The Labor Department said that its consumer price index rose 7.9% year-over-year in February, up from 7.5% in January and the fastest increase in 40 years. On the employment front, first-time claims for state unemployment benefits rose by 11,000 to 227,000 for the week ended March 5 and topped the consensus forecast. The Dow fell 0.34%, the S&P 0.43%, and the Nasdaq 0.95%. Crude oil traded near $106 per barrel, while gold rose $12 to $2001 per ounce.

Stocks rose strongly on Friday morning, led by the Technology and Communication Services sectors, after recovering from sharp early losses. But there were more signs of accelerating inflation. The Commerce Department said that its personal consumption expenditures index rose 5.8% from the prior year in December, up from 5.7% growth in November and in line with the Bloomberg consensus forecast. The Dow rose 0.5%, the S&P 1.2%, and the Nasdaq 2.0%. Crude oil rose more than 1% to $88 per barrel, while gold traded near $1786 per ounce.

The U.S. Department of Commerce announced that its "third" estimate for 3Q21 GDP growth was a rate of 2.3%. This was slightly above the previous estimates but in line with the consensus outlook. The growth rate, while positive, was more than 400 basis points below the 1H21 average of 6.5%, due to the emergence of the Delta variant of COVID-19. (The Omicron variant is also likely to have a negative impact on GDP in 2022, but we don't anticipate the impact will be as severe.) The GDP report also includes an inflation gauge, the PCE price index. This index, excluding food and energy, rose at a 4.6% pace, well ahead the Federal Reserve's inflation target of 2.0%, but down from the 6.1% rate recorded in 2Q21. Looking ahead, we expect above-trend GDP growth for the next few quarters. But there may be bumps along the way, including the impact of the Omicron variant on jobs and consumer spending on services, as well as supply-chain bottlenecks. Our forecast for 2022 GDP growth is 3.7%, compared to our estimate for 2021 GDP growth of 5.5%.

Sustainable Impact Investing is gaining traction with the global investment community. In January 2020, BlackRock CEO Lawrence Fink, who oversees approximately $9 trillion in assets, announced that his firm would be investing in companies that are making progress on sustainability. He doubled down in his January 2021 letter, calling on company managements to disclose their plans for making their businesses "compatible with a net-zero economy" by 2050. As assets have flowed in over the past 40 years, Sustainable Impact Investing has evolved. The discipline, originally known as Socially Responsible Investing, focused at first on excluding companies that conducted business in South Africa, or participated in industries such as tobacco, alcohol, and firearms. But the performance of these initial strategies lagged, and the approach has been modified. Now, instead of merely identifying industries to avoid, the discipline promotes "sustainable" business practices across all industries that can have an "impact" on global issues such as the climate, hunger, poverty, disease, shelter, and workers' rights.

This edition features the U.S. gas market; the recovering airline industry; new coverage of equipment rental firms; and notes from Meta Platforms (better known as Facebook), Apple, and Amazon.

Stocks rose strongly on Thursday as investors weighed new GDP and employment data along with 3Q earnings reports from a range of major companies. The Commerce Department said that 3Q GDP rose just 2.0%, down from 6.7% in 2Q and below the Reuters consensus of 2.7%. First-time unemployment claims fell to a new pandemic-era low of 281,000, down from 291,000 a week earlier and below the consensus forecast of 288,000. Continuing claims dropped to 2.243 million from 2.480 million a week earlier, and were also below consensus. The Dow rose 0.68%, the S&P 0.98%, and the Nasdaq 1.39%. Crude oil rose to $83 per barrel, while gold rose slightly to $1800 per ounce.

The United States economy is full of innovation. It has to be. Manufacturing industries that dominated the economy decades ago - textiles, televisions, even automobiles to a large degree - have moved overseas, where costs are lower. Yet the U.S. economy, even during the pandemic, has expanded to record levels. If U.S. corporations weren't innovating, the domestic economy would not be growing and capital would not be flooding into the country. Consider that U.S. GDP was approximately $1 trillion in 1930 but nearly $23 trillion at the end of 1H21. That's growth of 23-times. Meanwhile, the U.S. population has grown less than three-times during that time span, to 320 million from 120 million. The delta between GDP growth and population growth has been driven, in large part, by innovation. In addition, the value of listed corporations on U.S. stock exchanges at the end of 2020 was approximately $41 trillion, according to SIFMA, representing 38% of global equity market capitalization, while U.S. GDP represented only 26% of global GDP. The current low level of interest rates and the relatively high level of the dollar both attest to the confidence that global investors have in the innovative U.S. economy.

Earnings season has started -- and in the micro-burst that was last week, positive bank earnings (and a pandemic-low jobless-claims report) left the DJIA up 1.58%, the S&P 500 up 1.82%, and the Nasdaq Composite up 2.18%. Indeed, investors seem to be in a pretty-good mood as they survey third-quarter earnings and the fourth-quarter landscape. So how about corporate insiders?