AGNC Investment Corp. (AGNC) stock forecast and price target

Stocks turned lower on Tuesday morning, led by sharp declines in the Energy and Consumer Discretionary sectors. On the earnings front, Caterpillar shares rose more than 7% after the company posted much better than expected 2Q earnings, despite warning of sequentially lower revenue in 3Q. Pfizer reported sharply lower sales and earnings due to weaker demand for COVID products, though EPS topped the consensus forecast. The Dow was flat, the S&P fell 0.3%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.4%. Crude oil fell nearly 1% to $81 per barrel, while gold traded near $1981 per ounce.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

Stocks rose modestly on Friday morning, extending Thursday's rally. Exxon shares rose after the company reported strong 1Q earnings that topped the consensus forecast, though sales were down from the prior year. Chevron also posted strong earnings, helped by growth in its refining business. Amazon shares fell, despite strong first-quarter results, on concerns about slowing growth in the company's cloud business. The Dow rose 0.5%, the S&P 0.5%, and the Nasdaq 0.2%. Crude oil rose more than 2% to $76.50 per barrel, while gold traded near $1999 per ounce.

Monday Tee Up: Heavy on Earnings, Light on the Economy

Stocks finished mixed on Thursday as investors weighed earnings reports from a range of major companies, including Caterpillar, Merck, and McDonald's, along with new GDP and employment data. The Commerce Department said that the U.S. economy expanded at a 2.6% rate in the third quarter, a reversal after two quarters of declines, helped by stronger-than-expected net exports. On the employment front, first-time claims for state unemployment benefits rose by 3,000 to 217,000 for the week ended October 22, but were below the Reuters consensus estimate of 223,000. Continuing claims rose to 1.438 million, up from 1.383 million a week earlier and above the consensus forecast. The Dow rose 0.61%, the S&P fell 0.61%, and the Nasdaq fell 1.63%. Crude oil rose 1% to $89 per barrel, while gold fell $3 to $1666 per ounce.

Value stocks -- a market segment that includes high-yield stocks -- are outperforming growth stocks in 2022 for the first time since 2016. Indeed, for the past decade, the performance record has favored growth. Since 2010, the Russell 1000 Growth Index has climbed more than 600%, compared to an advance of 300% for the Russell 1000 Value Index. In nine of the past 10 years, growth stocks have topped value stocks. That wasn't always the case. In the 2000-2010 decade, which included two bear markets and the Great Recession, value stocks were better performers than growth stocks, advancing an admittedly low 8% (but still better than growth, which declined 15% during the decade). Value investors trace their roots to the famous "Security Analysis" textbook, written by Ben Graham, an economics professor at Columbia University. Warren Buffett was one of his students. Looking ahead, the roll-out of COVID-19 vaccines has given a lift to some of the cyclical companies (energy companies and regional banks) that have lagged in recent quarters, and value stocks have kept up the pace with growth stocks in the past year. Now, the Federal Reserve is lifting interest rates to fend off inflation, which will likely cap multiple expansion for growth companies. In any event, value is the place to achieve income. The current yield on the iShares Russell 1000 Value Index ETF is 2.1%, compared to the 0.8% current yield on the iShares Russell 1000 Growth Index ETF. For our list this week, we have screened our coverage universe for stocks that are BUY-rated at Argus Research, have an Argus Financial Strength rating of at least Medium, and have a yield of 4.0% or higher. Here's a baker's dozen that meet the criteria.

Value stocks -- a market segment that includes high-yield stocks -- are outperforming growth stocks in 2022 for the first time since 2016. Indeed, for the past decade, the performance record has favored growth. In nine of the past 10 years, growth stocks have topped value stocks. But the tide may be turning. The rollout of COVID-19 vaccines has given a lift to some of the cyclical companies (energy companies and regional banks) that have lagged in recent quarters, and value stocks have kept up the pace with growth stocks in the past year. Now, the Federal Reserve lifting interest rates to fend off inflation, which will likely cap multiple expansion for growth companies. Regardless, the value sector is the place to achieve income. The current yield on the iShares Russell 1000 Value Index ETF is 2.1%, compared to the 0.8% current yield on the iShares Russell 1000 Growth Index ETF. For our High-Yield Theme Model Portfolio, we are seeking stocks with yields of at least 3.0%. This moves us deep into the value segment of the market.

Stocks rose again on Friday morning, led by gains in the Consumer Discretionary and Energy sectors, as investors looked past Thursday's weak GDP numbers. Apple rose nearly 3% and Amazon nearly 11% following strong earnings reports. Exxon and Chevron also rallied after posting record profits. The Dow rose 0.5%, the S&P 0.8%, and the Nasdaq 1.0%. Crude oil rose 4% to $100 per barrel, while gold traded near $1780 per ounce.

Stocks rallied on Friday morning, paring some of their recent sharp losses. However, the major indices were still on track for their sixth straight weekly decline amid continued concerns about inflation and the Fed's ability to control it. In an NPR interview on Thursday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell reiterated that the central bank would likely raise interest rates by 50 basis points at each of its next two meetings, but that it was 'prepared to do more' if the data warranted. The Dow rose 1.4%, the S&P 2.1%, and the Nasdaq 3.6%. Crude oil rose $4 to $110 per barrel, while gold traded near $1813 per ounce.

Stocks rallied on Friday morning, paring some of their recent sharp losses. However, the major indices were still on track for their sixth straight weekly decline amid continued concerns about inflation and the Fed's ability to control it. In an NPR interview on Thursday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell reiterated that the central bank would likely raise interest rates by 50 basis points at each of its next two meetings, but that it was 'prepared to do more' if the data warranted. The Dow rose 1.4%, the S&P 2.1%, and the Nasdaq 3.6%. Crude oil rose $4 to $110 per barrel, while gold traded near $1813 per ounce.

Value stocks -- a market segment that includes high-yield stocks -- are outperforming growth stocks in 2022. For the past decade, the performance record has favored growth. Since 2010, the Russell 1000 Growth Index has climbed more than 600%, compared to an advance of 300% for the Russell 1000 Value Index. In nine of the past 10 years, growth stocks have topped value stocks. That hasn't always been the case. In the 2000-2010 decade, including the Great Recession, value stocks were better performers than growth stocks, advancing an admittedly low 8% -- but still better than growth, which declined 15% during the decade. Value investors trace their roots to the famous "Security Analysis" textbook, written by Ben Graham, an economics professor at Columbia University. Warren Buffett was one of his students. The rollout of COVID-19 vaccines has given a lift to some of the cyclical companies (energy firms and regional banks) that have lagged in recent quarters, and value stocks have kept up the pace with growth stocks in the past year. Now, the Federal Reserve is poised to lift interest rates to fend off high inflation, which will likely cap multiple expansion for growth companies. In any event, value is the place to achieve income. The current yield on the iShares Russell 1000 Value Index ETF is 1.6%, compared to the 0.5% current yield on the iShares Russell 1000 Growth Index ETF. For our list this week, we screened our coverage universe for stocks that are BUY-rated by Argus Research analysts, have a Financial Strength rating of at least Medium, and have a yield of 3.0% or higher. Here are 10 stocks that meet the criteria.

Value stocks -- a market segment that includes high-yield stocks -- are outperforming growth stocks in 2022. For the past decade, the performance record has favored growth, but the tide may be turning. The rollout of COVID-19 vaccines has given a lift to some of the cyclical companies (energy companies and regional banks) that have lagged in recent quarters, and value stocks have kept up the pace with growth stocks in the past year. Now, the Federal Reserve is poised to lift interest rates to fend off inflation, which will likely cap multiple expansion for growth companies. Regardless, the value sector is the place to achieve income. The current yield on the iShares Russell 1000 Value Index ETF is 1.6%, compared to the 0.5% current yield on the iShares Russell 1000 Growth Index ETF. For our High-Yield Theme Model Portfolio, we are seeking stocks with yields of at least 3.0%. This moves us deep into the value segment of the market.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

In this space last week, we detailed how the then-current data from Vickers Stock Research clearly indicated that corporate insiders had (after weeks of waiting and watching) finally reacted to the 2022 market correction. The data revealed significant bullishness, with the proprietary sentiment readings from Vickers hitting optimistic levels last seen in March of 2020 -- just after the stock market plunged on initial COVID-19 fears. We had no sooner reported the good news last week then we began the obvious speculation, wondering if the bullishness would last or end up being a one-week wonder. So?

What happened to the September sell-off? A month ago, the S&P 500 was in the process of falling off all-time highs (ATHs) set early in September. From the ATH of 4,537 on 9/2/21, the '500' fell to the 4,350s on 9/21/21; staged what would be a failed rally to just under 4,450 on 9/24/21; and then made twin lows right around 4,300 on 9/30/21 and 10/4/21.

Value stocks are outperforming growth in 2021 for the first time since 2016. While a recent rally in growth stocks has narrowed the performance advantage for value in the year to date, an environment of historically low interest rates is one in which many investors are still searching for high levels of income -- which often can be found in value stocks. When we look for attractive high-yield/deep-value stocks at Argus, we look for low valuations on metrics such as price/earnings, price/sales, price/book, yield, and price/cash flow. We also look for companies with clean balance sheets, high levels of profitability, high-quality earnings, and experienced management teams. We seek to avoid companies in industries that are in secular decline, or with dividend yields that are so high that the payout is clearly at risk. Based on numerous requests from clients, we have designed a portfolio of companies that are BUY-rated at Argus Research, have a Financial Strength rating of at least Medium, and have a yield of 3.0% or higher.

Stocks were mixed on Wednesday morning as investors weighed earnings reports from Alphabet, Apple, and Microsoft, and awaited the Fed's policy statement and comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell this afternoon. Investors will be closely scrutinizing Mr. Powell's comments regarding the state of the economy, the impact of the Delta variant, and the timing of any reduction in the central bank's bond buying program. The Dow fell 0.1%, the S&P rose 0.1%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.7%. Crude oil traded near $72 per barrel, while gold fell $3 to $1797 per ounce.

Our proprietary Treasury Note Yield Model is signaling that bond yields, which have climbed 70 basis points year-to-date, are still too low based on fundamentals. Our model discounts factors such as current yields, GDP growth, long-term inflation, as well as stock prices and earnings. We smooth trends out over a five-year period, in order to avoid short-term momentum traps. Our current 10-year T-bond fair value yield is 3.0%. The normal valuation range has a floor of 1.75% and a ceiling of 4.25%. The current 10-year bond yield is around 1.6%, below the low end of the fundamental range and well below fair value. From an asset-allocation standpoint, we think bonds remain fully valued compared to stocks and recommend that long-term investors modestly favor equity securities in diversified portfolios. We typically break the fixed-income portfolio component into four areas: Core, such as the industry benchmark ETF AGG or Treasuries; Inflation-Indexed; Opportunistic, such as securitized debt, corporate debt, high-yield or floating bonds, or preferreds; and Cash. We currently favor the Core and Opportunistic segments, and have been adding to Inflation-Indexed. On duration, we recommend the intermediate-term.

With April winding down, you can count on someone, somewhere saying, 'sell in May and go away.' That pronouncement is mainly popular because it rhymes. While it is true that summer is typically a period of relative underperformance, market timing rarely works. And sometimes summer is a good time for stock performance.

The Portfolio Selector features the Argus Focus List, a group of 30 "best idea" stocks generated and regularly updated by Argus' analysts and investment policy committee. It also includes the director of research’s monthly investment strategy column, stock recommendations and sector picks, economic forecasts, and an asset allocation model. This month, the Focus List additions are Dell Technologies Inc (DELL); Weyerhaeuser Co. (WY); EBay Inc. (EBAY); Southwest Airlines Co (LUV) and the Focus List deletions are Williams-Sonoma, Inc. (WSM); Dominos Pizza Inc (DPZ); Texas Instruments Inc. (TXN); AGNC Investment Corp (AGNC).

Our proprietary Treasury Note Yield Model is signaling that bond yields, which have climbed 60 basis points in recent months, are still too low based on fundamentals. Our model discounts factors such as current yields, GDP growth and long-term inflation, as well as stock prices and earnings. We smooth trends out over a five-year period, in order to avoid short-term momentum swings. Our current 10-year T-bond fair value yield is 3.0%. The normal valuation range has a floor of 1.75% and a ceiling of 4.25%. The current 10-year bond yield is around 1.3%, below the low end of the fundamental range and well below fair value. From an asset-allocation standpoint, we think bonds remain fully valued compared to stocks and recommend that long-term investors modestly favor equity securities in their diversified portfolios. We typically break the fixed-income component of a portfolio into four areas: Core, such as the industry benchmark ETF AGG or Treasuries; Inflation-Indexed; Opportunistic, such as securitized debt, corporate debt, high-yield or floating bonds or preferreds; and Cash. We currently favor the Core and Opportunistic segments, and have been adding to Inflation-Indexed. On duration, we recommend the intermediate-term.

New Year Brings More of the Same for Economy, New Sector Leadership

Growth stocks outperformed value, again, in 2020. But in an environment of historically low interest rates (and with the coronavirus and a high unemployment rate seemingly poised to keep them low for a long time), many investors are searching for high levels of income, often be found in value stocks. During recent years, the performance record has favored growth. Since 2010, the Russell 1000 Growth Index has climbed more than 400%, compared to an advance of 200% for the Russell 1000 Value Index. In eight of the past 10 years, growth stocks topped value. That hasn't always been the case. In the previous decade, including the Great Recession, value stocks were better performers, advancing a low 8%, but still better than growth, which declined 15%. Value investors trace their roots to the famous "Security Analysis" textbook, written by Ben Graham, an economics professor at Columbia University. The tide may now be turning. Progress on COVID-19 vaccines has given a lift to some of the cyclical companies (energy companies and banks) that have lagged in recent quarters, and value stocks have kept pace with growth stocks in the past quarter. In any event, value is the place to achieve income. The current yield on the iShares Russell 1000 Value Index ETF is 2.5%, compared to the 1.0% current yield on the iShares Russell 1000 Growth Index ETF. This is not unimportant, as the current yield on the 10-year Treasury bond is 0.95%. For our list this week, we have screened our coverage universe for stocks that are BUY-rated by Argus Research analysts, have a Financial Strength rating of at least Medium, and have a yield of 3.0% or higher.

We recently upgraded our rating on the Financial Services sector to Over-Weight. With market optimism rising on positive vaccine developments and the presidential transition, interest rates have started to move higher at the long end of the yield curve. We expect banks to benefit from wider net interest margins and lower loan-loss provisions as the economy normalizes, and insurance companies to generate higher income in their investment portfolios. The sector accounts for 10.4% of the S&P 500, down from 16.3% following the exclusion of REIT stocks. Over the past five years, the weighting has ranged from 9% to 17%. We think the sector should account for 11%-12% of diversified portfolios. The Financial sector is underperforming the market thus far in 2020, with a loss of 9.6%. It slightly outperformed in 2019, with a gain of 29.2%, and underperformed in 2018, with a loss of 14.7%. Here is how we use our analysts' Financial Services sector ideas in our Focus List and Model portfolios. All of the following stocks are rated BUY at Argus.

Our proprietary Treasury Note Yield Model is signaling that bond yields, which have climbed 40 basis points in recent months, are still too low based on the fundamentals. Our model discounts factors such as current yields, GDP growth and long-term inflation, and stock prices and earnings. We smooth trends out over a five-year period, in order to avoid being caught in short-term momentum swings. Our current 10-year T-bond fair value yield is 2.85%. The normal valuation range has a floor of 1.6% and a ceiling of 4.10%. The current 10-year bond yield is around 0.94%, below the low end of the fundamental range and well below fair value. From an asset allocation standpoint, we think bonds remain fully valued compared to stocks and recommend that long-term investors modestly favor equity securities in diversified portfolios. We typically break the fixed-income component of a portfolio into four areas: Core, such as the industry benchmark ETF AGG or Treasuries; Inflation-Indexed; Opportunistic, such as securitized debt, corporate debt, high-yield or floating bonds or preferreds; and Cash. We currently favor the Core and Opportunistic segments. On duration, we recommend the intermediate-term.

Growth stocks may be outperforming value, again, in 2020. But in an environment of historically low interest rates (and with the coronavirus and economic shutdown seemingly poised to keep them low for a long time), many investors are still searching for high levels of income, which can often be found in value stocks. Progress on COVID-19 vaccines has given a lift to some of the cyclical companies (energy companies and regional banks) that have lagged in recent quarters, and value stocks have kept up the pace with growth stocks in the past quarter. The current yield on the iShares Russell 1000 Value Index ETF is 2.5%, compared to the 1.0% current yield on the iShares Russell 1000 Growth Index ETF. This is not unimportant, as the current yield on the 10-year Treasury bond is 0.95%.

In the past few weeks, the S&P 500 has drifted down from its October closing high of 3,534 on 10/12/20, hit an end-of-day low of 3,427 on 10/19/20, and worked back up to 3,465 at the close on October 23. The market is down about 2% from that mid-October high but still up 3% for the month, coming off September's 4% decline.

Argus has published its latest Portfolio Selector, which features its popular Focus List. Each month, Director of Research Jim Kelleher, CFA, surveys the team of Argus Research industry analysts for their timeliest recommendations out of the company's fundamental universe of approximately 500 stocks. The Focus List typically includes 30 stocks: turnover is high, as Jim typically adds three or four new stocks per month. Below are the latest additions, all of which carry and Argus BUY rating.

Argus has published its latest Portfolio Selector, which features its popular Focus List. Each month, Director of Research Jim Kelleher, CFA, surveys the team of Argus Research industry analysts for their timeliest recommendations out of the company's fundamental universe of approximately 500 stocks. The Focus List typically includes 30 stocks: turnover is high, as Jim typically adds three or four new stocks per month. Below are the latest additions, all of which carry and Argus BUY rating.

The Portfolio Selector features the Argus Focus List, a group of 30 "best idea" stocks generated and regularly updated by Argus' analysts and investment policy committee. It also includes the director of research’s monthly investment strategy column, stock recommendations and sector picks, economic forecasts, and an asset allocation model. This month, the Focus List additions are Texas Instruments Inc. (TXN); Dominos Pizza Inc (DPZ); Citizens Financial Group Inc (CFG); AGNC Investment Corp (AGNC) and the Focus List deletions are Allstate Corp (The) (ALL); Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD); Equinix Inc (EQIX); CarMax Inc (KMX).

The Portfolio Selector features the Argus Focus List, a group of 30 "best idea" stocks generated and regularly updated by Argus' analysts and investment policy committee. It also includes the director of research’s monthly investment strategy column, stock recommendations and sector picks, economic forecasts, and an asset allocation model. This month, the Focus List additions are Texas Instruments Inc. (TXN); Dominos Pizza Inc (DPZ); Citizens Financial Group Inc (CFG); AGNC Investment Corp (AGNC) and the Focus List deletions are Allstate Corp (The) (ALL); Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD); Equinix Inc (EQIX); CarMax Inc (KMX).

Stocks rose on Wednesday morning amid positive earnings reports and strong housing market data, as investors awaited the Fed's policy statement and press conference this afternoon. The National Association of Realtors said that its pending home sales index rose by 16.6% to 116.1 in June, above the Reuters consensus forecast. The Dow rose 0.2%, the S&P 0.7%, and the Nasdaq 1.0%. Crude oil traded near $41 per barrel, while gold rose $5 to $1949 per ounce.

Stocks rose on Wednesday morning amid positive earnings reports and strong housing market data, as investors awaited the Fed's policy statement and press conference this afternoon. The National Association of Realtors said that its pending home sales index rose by 16.6% to 116.1 in June, above the Reuters consensus forecast. The Dow rose 0.2%, the S&P 0.7%, and the Nasdaq 1.0%. Crude oil traded near $41 per barrel, while gold rose $5 to $1949 per ounce.

When the pandemic hit, people waited for things to get back to normal. Now we realize that what lies ahead is a new normal, not the old normal. Investors also are living within a new normal, and the chief characteristic is volatility.

When the pandemic hit, people waited for things to get back to normal. Now we realize that what lies ahead is a new normal, not the old normal. Investors also are living within a new normal, and the chief characteristic is volatility.

The Portfolio Selector features the Argus Focus List, a group of 30 "best idea" stocks generated and regularly updated by Argus' analysts and investment policy committee. It also includes the director of research’s monthly investment strategy column, stock recommendations and sector picks, economic forecasts, and an asset allocation model. This month, the Focus List additions are Texas Instruments Inc. (TXN); Dominos Pizza Inc (DPZ); Citizens Financial Group Inc (CFG); AGNC Investment Corp (AGNC) and the Focus List deletions are Allstate Corp (The) (ALL); Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD); Equinix Inc (EQIX); CarMax Inc (KMX).

Argus has published its latest Portfolio Selector, which features its popular Focus List. Each month, Director of Research Jim Kelleher, CFA, surveys the team of Argus Research industry analysts for their timeliest recommendations out of the company's fundamental universe of approximately 500 stocks. The Focus List typically includes 30 stocks: turnover is high, as Jim typically adds three or four new stocks per month. Below are the latest additions, all of which carry and Argus BUY rating.

Stocks rose on Wednesday morning amid positive earnings reports and strong housing market data, as investors awaited the Fed's policy statement and press conference this afternoon. The National Association of Realtors said that its pending home sales index rose by 16.6% to 116.1 in June, above the Reuters consensus forecast. The Dow rose 0.2%, the S&P 0.7%, and the Nasdaq 1.0%. Crude oil traded near $41 per barrel, while gold rose $5 to $1949 per ounce.

When the pandemic hit, people waited for things to get back to normal. Now we realize that what lies ahead is a new normal, not the old normal. Investors also are living within a new normal, and the chief characteristic is volatility.