Depending on today's close, the three major indices might achieve 16 positive weeks out of 18 on their northern glide path. So far, this surely is a "leap" year. The Nasdaq finally made an all-time high (ATH), jumping above the last ATH from November 19, 2021. Yes, that took a long time (about 27.5 months). But after the 2000 high, it took the index more than 15 years to recover -- so just a couple years isn't so bad. Is this a significant breakout? As we have said, great breakouts to ATHs occur after multi-year bases, not after vicious rallies.

Both the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 hit new highs on inflation data that came in as expected. Other economic data released today included initial jobless claims, which came to 215,000, up from last week's revised 212,000 and ahead of expectations. Ongoing unemployment rose to 1,905,000 from the previous week's revised 1,860,000; that raised the insured unemployment rate by 0.1% to 1.3%. The S&P 500 rose 0.5%, the Nasdaq gained 0.9%, while the Dow fell 0.1%.

Stock indices dipped in October 2023, with the S&P 500 falling a sharp 10% off summer highs. Looking at 13F filings of big institutional portfolios, we see that the big guns were busy last quarter taking advantage of that dip. Citadel Advisors went on a buying spree, adding to its $100 billion portfolio across a range of sectors. As did D.E. Shaw, adding to its $67 billion portfolio. Vickers Stock Research, a subsidiary of Argus Research Group, analyzes insider trading and institutional stock ownership. Form 13-Fs, which institutions must file to report their holdings, are due 45 days after the end of calendar quarters and have come in for 4Q24. We review 13Fs of major activists to determine core holdings and new purchases. Activist investing is now less about generating a short-term return and more about achieving long-term returns through an active management/investor partnership. Based on data from Vickers, here are some recent new purchases and key holdings of activist investors, as well as other high-profile money managers.

China is the second largest economy in the world in terms of total GDP. But on a GDP per-capita and purchasing power parity basis, this mighty nation remains a fraction of the size of the U.S, let alone Singapore or Norway, and trails dozens of other countries. In 2023, the GDP/Capita rate was $21,500 in China versus $76,400 in the U.S. We expect an above-average growth rate (5%-6%) to resume in China for at least the next decade as the impact of the pandemic fades. But growth will be different from the experience pre-pandemic. We look for less investment by China into domestic infrastructure. Instead, we think the Chinese government will focus on raising the living standards of its 1.4 billion people, investing to lift citizens out of rural poverty, lengthen their lives, and clean the air, among other initiatives. This growth will favor the business and financial services industries, as well as healthcare. These industries will be targeting a wealthier consumer base than was the case even five years ago and their products can meet with demand. India, the world's most-populous country, is a better candidate for higher growth and infrastructure spending over the next decades. Its GDP/Capita rate was $8,400 last year. India's government has set a goal of catching up to China and becoming a developed nation by 2047. That kind of advancement may require annual growth of 8%-9% per year, which is achievable if India can convince global companies to move production to its shores and away from China. India also will need to focus on increasing the wealth of its citizens, so they can become customers for the companies that move in.

Earnings season has arrived, with some of the major financials kicking off what is always a period of anticipation, excitement, and fear (depending on what's in your portfolio). While technicals take a back seat during this period, there is one constant: the reaction to the quarterly reports and company guidance is more important than the actual earnings. In addition, perspective is needed. Did a stock run up or was it hit before the numbers printed? This can make the reactions a little more difficult to read.

Here is the list of the Top Picks for 2024 from the Argus team of analysts. The team is deeply experienced, as each analyst has spent ,on average, 25 years on Wall Street and 15 years at Argus Research. As such, our analysts are extremely well-versed in our proprietary fundamental six-point system and the sectors they cover. They also have solid relationships with many of the management teams they cover. But they do not operate in a vacuum. An Investment Policy Committee (IPC) comprised of Director of Research Jim Kelleher, CFA; President John Eade; Chief Compliance Officer & Senior Financial Analyst Kevin Heal; and Director of Financial Institutions Research Steve Biggar provide macro outlooks for the economy, interest rates, earnings, and the stock market. The IPC reviews all proposed ratings changes. Our list below is organized by sector.

After taking a much-needed breather since November 20, the stock market got back into crawl-higher/lockout-rally mode on Monday. The S&P 500 (SPX) and the Nasdaq Composite broke slightly above their closing July levels, while the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) is within a few points of taking out its prior all-time high from late 2021. What a very long round trip!

Argus has published its latest Portfolio Selector, which features its popular Focus List. Each month, Director of Research Jim Kelleher, CFA, surveys the team of Argus Research industry analysts for their timeliest recommendations out of the company's fundamental universe of approximately 500 stocks. The Focus List typically includes 30 stocks: turnover is high, as Jim typically adds three or four new stocks per month. Below are the latest additions, all of which are rated BUY at Argus.

The Portfolio Selector features the Argus Focus List, a group of 30 "best idea" stocks generated and regularly updated by Argus' analysts and investment policy committee. It also includes the director of research’s monthly investment strategy column, stock recommendations and sector picks, economic forecasts, and an asset allocation model. This month, the Focus List additions are Equinix Inc (EQIX); Expedia Group Inc (EXPE); American Intl Grp In (AIG); Netflix Inc (NFLX) and the Focus List deletions are Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG); Comcast Corp (CMCSA); ProLogis (PLD); Royal Caribbean Group (RCL).

The Commerce Department will update its forecast for GDP this morning. Last month, in its initial estimate, the government indicated that 3Q GDP rose at an annualized 4.9% pace. We think that robust rate will hold steady, though we note that any surprise is likely to occur on the downside (the Atlanta Fed's GDP Now report is calling for 2.1% growth in the current 4Q). Key drivers behind the 3Q GDP number included Personal Consumption Expenditures on Services, which grew at a 3.6% annualized rate and contributed 162 basis points (bps) to overall GDP expansion. In fact, all aspects of consumer spending were important to 3Q GDP, as spending on durable goods and spending on nondurable goods contributed 60 and 48 bps, respectively. Another large contributor to GDP growth in the quarter was inventory building, which added 132 bps. Another contributor of note was government spending, which has been up and down in recent years reflecting the impact of the pandemic-related fiscal stimulus programs from Washington. The recent trend has been for more-consistent growth, though this may change in upcoming quarters given the outcome of the debt-ceiling debate. On the negative side, the Federal Reserve's rate-hike campaign has slowed the construction industries, including structures and residential investment. The export sector has been volatile as well. Of note, we believe 3Q growth will be the highest rate the economy sees well into 2024, and look for growth closer to 2% in the quarters ahead.

Be the news good or bad, our analysis of insider-transaction data from Vickers Stock Research is most actionable when the data in question is aligned. That is very much the case this week, and the current alignment points to positive trends. With earnings season at an end, the weekly volume of insider transactions is back to normal, which is meaningful for our analysis.

We've had a plethora of breadth thrusts since the late-October low, typical at intermediate- to long-term bottoms. We saw a Zweig Breadth Thrust and a Whaley Breadth Thrust; the S&P 500 (SPX) had three upside gaps of at least 0.4% in nine days; the percent of SPX stocks above their 50-day average has bolted to 70% from 11%; and, finally, the five-day average of NYSE breadth has now cycled from an extreme oversold reading of -1,100 on 10/23 to an extreme overbought reading of +1,510 on 11/3. Pradeep Bonde at stockbee.blogspot.com looked at 6,300 stocks, and 25% of them were up at least 4% back on Tuesday.

The bad stock and bond market days continue to pile up and we are reducing our intermediate-term technical assessment to bearish. On Wednesday, the S&P 500 (SPX) lost 1.4%, the Nasdaq and the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) dropped 2.4%, and both the S&P MidCap 400 (MDY) and the Russell 2000 (IWM) fell 1.5%. The indices all made new closing pullback lows and the IWM is testing the bottom of a range that goes back to April 2022 and is 31% from its November 2021 all-time high.

The sequence of market tops and bottoms (during an intermediate- to long-term period) and the relationship between assets (positive or negatively correlated) are fascinating for a chartist. As we see it, those considerations should be in the toolbox of any investor. Indeed, so-called Intermarket Analysis was made famous by John Murphy in his 1991 book titled "Intermarket Technical Analysis." Mr. Murphy went as far as to use this analysis to make forecasts about the economy and the business cycle.

Proper leadership for the stock market is one of the most important indicators of the health of a bull market. This takes on even more importance because the major indices are cap-weighted, with some industries and sectors heavily weighted in the indices and others not at all. In addition, the psyche of a bull market reflects which stocks are leading. Are they higher-beta names with strong growth revenues and EPS prospects that can add some real alpha to a portfolio? Or are they lower-beta names, where slow and steady is the name of the game.

Stocks Hit Early August Speedbump as Earnings, Economy Roll On

Fed on the Sidelines: What's Next for the Market?

Stocks rose on Thursday afternoon, recovering from early losses despite more hot inflation data. In Europe, the EU statistics agency said that Eurozone consumer prices rose at an 8.5% annualized rate in February, down slightly from January but above the consensus forecast of 8.2% growth. Core inflation, excluding food and energy prices, also rose from the prior month. The report set the stage for further aggressive rate hikes from the ECB, including a likely 50-basis-point hike on March 16. In the U.S., weekly jobless claims were lower than expected, and remained below 200,000 for the seventh straight week. The Labor Department also said that 4Q unit labor costs rose at a 3.2% rate from the prior quarter, up from its initial estimate of 1.1% growth. On the earnings front, Salesforce was a bright spot. Salesforce shares jumped more than 11% after the company reported better-than-expected fiscal 4Q23 results and issued strong guidance for FY24. The Dow rose 1.05%, the S&P 0.76%, and the Nasdaq 0.73%. Crude oil traded near $78 per barrel, while gold rose slightly to $1842 per ounce.

Vickers Stock Research, a subsidiary of The Argus Research Group, tracks and analyzes insider trading and institutional stock ownership trends. Form 13-Fs, which institutions must file to report their holdings, are due 45 days after the end of calendar quarters, and have now come in for 4Q22. We like to review the 13Fs of the major activist investors, including Carl Icahn, Trian Fund Management, Jana Partners, and ValueAct Holdings, among others, in order to determine their core holdings and new purchases. Activist investing has evolved in recent years and is now less about generating a short-term return on an underpriced stock and more about achieving long-term returns through an active management/investor partnership. Activists have made progress in the past quarter with high-profile investments into blue-chip companies such as Walt Disney and Salesforce. Based on data from Vickers, here are some recent new purchases and key holdings of activist investors, as well as other high-profile money managers such as Warren Buffet of Berkshire Hathaway and Ken Griffin of Citadel Advisors LLC.

Monday Tee Up: Jobs, Inflation, and GDP

Monday Tee-Up: Housing, Consumers, Manufacturing

onday Tee-Up: Housing, Consumers, Manufacturing

Reading the Tea Leaves on Consumers

With the market focus shifting from inflation to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, stocks finished last week with a surprise two-day rally that included the best stock day of 2022. On Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average soared by 835 points, or 2.51%. The S&P 500 rose 2.24%, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.64%. For the week, the DJIA was down 20 points, or 0.1%, while the S&P 500 rose 0.82%, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.09%. For the year to date, the Dow is down 6.2%; the S&P 500 is off 8.01%; and the Nasdaq Composite remains in correction territory though off its lows, down 12.47%.

Stocks were mixed on Thursday as investors weighed a range of earnings reports and new employment data. Macy's shares jumped more than 21% after the retailer posted strong 3Q earnings and raised its full-year guidance. Nvidia shares also rose on stronger-than-expected results, while Cisco fell on weak sales guidance and supply-chain concerns. On the employment front, the Labor Department said that first-time claims for state unemployment benefits fell to 268,000 for the week ended November 13, down slightly from the prior week but above the consensus forecast of 260,000. Continuing claims fell to 2.08 million, down from 2.209 million a week earlier. The Dow fell 0.17%, the S&P rose 0.34%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.45%. Crude oil fell slightly to $79 per barrel, while gold fell to $1861 per ounce.

Stocks were mixed on Thursday as investors weighed a range of earnings reports and new employment data. Macy's shares jumped more than 21% after the retailer posted strong 3Q earnings and raised its full-year guidance. Nvidia shares also rose on stronger-than-expected results, while Cisco fell on weak sales guidance and supply-chain concerns. On the employment front, the Labor Department said that first-time claims for state unemployment benefits fell to 268,000 for the week ended November 13, down slightly from the prior week but above the consensus forecast of 260,000. Continuing claims fell to 2.08 million, down from 2.209 million a week earlier. The Dow fell 0.17%, the S&P rose 0.34%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.45%. Crude oil fell slightly to $79 per barrel, while gold fell to $1861 per ounce.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

This edition features edge computing; utilities' role in green energy; AIG's valuation; and notes from RH, SEI Investments, and Lululemon.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

Stocks fell on Thursday morning following new weekly employment data and a producer price report that again pointed to high inflation. The Labor Department said that first-time claims for state unemployment benefits fell to 375,000 for the week ended August 7, down from 387,000 a week earlier and in line with the consensus forecast. On the earnings front, eBay shares fell after the company posted mixed 2Q results and offered disappointing third-quarter sales guidance. The Dow fell 0.3%, the S&P 0.3%, and the Nasdaq 0.4%. Crude oil rose to $69 per barrel, while gold traded near $1749 per ounce.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Mid Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. The market capitalization range for U.S. mid-caps typically falls between $1 billion and $8 billion and represents 20% of the total capitalization of the U.S. equity market.

The stock market was volatile last week as inflation concerns whipsawed stocks, ultimately pushing them lower on the week. During Friday's session, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 361 points, or 1.06%. The S&P 500 was up 1.49%, and the Nasdaq Composite was up 2.32%. For the week, the DJIA was down 397 points, or 1.14%, the S&P 500 was down 1.39%, and the Nasdaq Composite was down 2.34%. Year-to-date, the DJIA is up 12.34%, the S&P 500 is up 11.12%, and the Nasdaq Composite is up 4.20%.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Mid Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. The market capitalization range for U.S. mid-caps typically falls between $1 billion and $8 billion and represents 20% of the total capitalization of the U.S. equity market.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Mid Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. The market capitalization range for U.S. mid-caps typically falls between $1 billion and $8 billion and represents 20% of the total capitalization of the U.S. equity market.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Mid Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. The market capitalization range for U.S. mid-caps typically falls between $1 billion and $8 billion and represents 20% of the total capitalization of the U.S. equity market.

The stock market dropped last week, as surging bond yields signaled tighter lending conditions may lie ahead. Tech stocks were the hardest hit and the Nasdaq recorded its worst week since October-though blue chips certainly weren't spared. During Friday's session, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 470 points, or 1.50%. The S&P 500 was down 0.48%, and the Nasdaq Composite increased 0.56%. For the week, the DJIA dropped 562 points, or 1.78%, the S&P 500 was down 2.45%, and the Nasdaq Composite was down 4.92%. For the year-to-date, the DJIA is up 1.06%, the S&P 500 is up 1.47%, and the Nasdaq Composite is up 2.36%.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Mid Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. The market capitalization range for U.S. mid-caps typically falls between $1 billion and $8 billion and represents 20% of the total capitalization of the U.S. equity market.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Mid Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. The market capitalization range for U.S. mid-caps typically falls between $1 billion and $8 billion and represents 20% of the total capitalization of the U.S. equity market.