Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) stock forecast and price target

This could be an important week for the financial markets, with the major stock indices popping back to the underside (potential resistance) or just above (as with the Nasdaq 100) their 50-day averages -- and all with a lower high in place. Treasury yields are at the top of their range going back to October 2022, and are either topping out from an intermediate-term perspective or will complete large cup formations (which suggest another big move to the upside for yields).

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

The Nasdaq and the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) fell slightly under their 50-day averages late last week, which we don't consider a break of this key short-term support. The last time the indices were below their 50-day was in March. They have dipped 5% from closing highs on July 18 and also are slightly below trendline support off March lows.

The first-quarter earnings season has passed the halfway mark with 292 (or 58%) of S&P 500 companies having reported results through August 1. An impressive 81% of those companies exceeded earnings expectations, while the blended (actual and still to report) earnings decline is now projected at 5.9%, according to Refinitv. The Consumer Discretionary sector still leads with 36% earnings growth, while Energy is now by far the weakest sector, with a 48% profit decline. Our analysts are always on the lookout for companies that boost their outlooks during earnings season. Management's ability to "raise guidance" can often be a catalyst to market-beating returns in the quarters ahead. Here is an initial list of BUY-rated companies in Argus Coverage for which management has raised guidance or increased its outlook during the 2Q23 EPS reporting season.

Stocks recouped some of their recent losses on Friday morning following the government's July employment report. The Labor Department said that the U.S. economy added 187,000 payroll jobs in July, up from a revised 185,000 in June but below the Reuters consensus of 200,000. The unemployment rate ticked lower to 3.5% from 3.6% in June, and wage growth was stronger than expected. Average hourly earnings rose 4.4% from the prior year, above the consensus forecast of 4.2%. The Dow rose 0.6%, the S&P 0.6%, and the Nasdaq 0.8%. Crude oil rose 1% to $82.50 per barrel, while gold rose $8 to $1977 per ounce.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

In this edition, streaming services changing their channels; BRP looks promising; China's AI is calling; and Autoliv, Sirius XM, and American Express.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

In past commentaries, we have talked about a potential U.S. Dollar Index (USD) rally, detailing its bearish implications for precious metals (GLD, SLV) and crypto (specifically Bitcoin and Ethereum). On Wednesday, the greenback continued its ascent, reaching its highest level since March 17. USD has bullishly pushed back above its 10- and 21-week exponential averages after losing them last November. At its recent low seven weeks ago, the greenback was slightly under its low from February 1, setting up both a bullish daily momentum divergence and a minor false breakdown.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

Stocks rose modestly on Friday morning, extending Thursday's rally. Exxon shares rose after the company reported strong 1Q earnings that topped the consensus forecast, though sales were down from the prior year. Chevron also posted strong earnings, helped by growth in its refining business. Amazon shares fell, despite strong first-quarter results, on concerns about slowing growth in the company's cloud business. The Dow rose 0.5%, the S&P 0.5%, and the Nasdaq 0.2%. Crude oil rose more than 2% to $76.50 per barrel, while gold traded near $1999 per ounce.

Innovation may be hard to define. But to borrow from former U.S. Supreme Court Justice Potter Stewart, you know it when you see it. The United States economy is full of innovation. It has to be. Manufacturing industries that dominated the economy decades ago - textiles, televisions, even automobiles to a large degree - have moved overseas, where labor and materials costs are lower. Yet the U.S. economy, even during the pandemic and the current period of high inflation, has expanded to record levels. If U.S. corporations weren't innovating, creating new products (such as vaccines) and services (such as Zoom calls) and moving into new markets and applications, the domestic economy would not be growing, and capital would not be flooding into the country. The current high level of the U.S. dollar relative to currencies around the world attests to the confidence that global investors have in the durable and innovative U.S. economy.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

Stocks were mixed on Friday morning after a much better-than-expected jobs report raised prospects for additional Fed rate hikes. The Labor Department reported that the U.S. economy added 517,000 payroll jobs in January, up from 260,000 in December and well above the Reuters consensus forecast of 185,000. The official unemployment rate ticked down to 3.4% from 3.5% in December. The Dow rose 0.2%, the S&P fell 0.1%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.1%. Crude oil fell 1% to $75 per barrel, while gold dropped more than 2% to $1880 per ounce.

Stocks extended their Fed-driven rally on Thursday, led by strong gains in the Communication Services, Consumer Discretionary, and Technology sectors. Meta Platforms jumped 23%, despite disappointing 4Q earnings, as investors focused on the company's better-than-expected revenue, cost-cutting efforts, and new share buyback plan. On the employment front, first-time claims for state unemployment benefits fell by 3,000 to 183,000 for the week ended January 28, below the Reuters consensus forecast of 200,000. The data came ahead of the government's January employment report on Friday morning. The consensus estimate calls for 185,000 new payroll jobs, down from 223,000 in December, and an unemployment rate of 3.6%, up from 3.5% a month earlier. The Dow fell 0.11%, the S&P rose 1.47%, and the Nasdaq soared 3.25%. Crude oil traded near $76 per barrel, while gold fell $16 to $1927 per ounce.

Both the potential onset of recession (if the economy is not in one already) and the sharp move higher in interest rates have pulled the foundation out from under the equity market in 2022. Few sectors have been spared, with only the Energy industry in the green on a year-to-date basis. The broad retrenchment has dragged down small-caps, mid-caps, large-caps, and even the mega-caps that had previously pushed stocks to new heights as the economy recovered from the pandemic. In our opinion, some of these world-class companies have been oversold. For our list this week, we have identified 11 BUY-rated large- or mega-cap companies across numerous industries that are selling at attractive valuations and are more than 20% below their 52-week highs.

Monday Tee Up: The Fed, Jobs, Earnings Roll On

Innovation may be hard to define. But to borrow from former U.S. Supreme Court Justice Potter Stewart, you know it when you see it. The United States economy is full of innovation. It has to be. Manufacturing industries that dominated the economy decades ago - textiles, televisions, even automobiles to a large degree - have moved overseas, where labor and materials costs are lower. Yet the U.S. economy, even during the pandemic and the current period of high inflation, has expanded to record levels. If U.S. corporations weren't innovating, creating new products (such as vaccines) and services (such as Zoom calls) and moving into new markets and applications, the domestic economy would not be growing, and capital would not be flooding into the country. The current high level of the U.S. dollar relative to currencies around the world attests to the confidence that global investors have in the innovative U.S. economy.

Innovation may be hard to define, but to borrow from former U.S. Supreme Court Justice Potter Stewart, you know it when you see it. The United States economy is full of innovation. It has to be. Manufacturing industries that dominated the economy decades ago - textiles, televisions, even automobiles, to a large degree - have moved overseas, where costs are lower. Yet the U.S. economy is at its largest point in history and still growing. If U.S. corporations weren't innovating, creating new products and services, and moving into new markets and applications, the domestic economy would be contracting, not expanding, and capital would not be flooding into the country. Particularly at this juncture of the market and economic cycles, when uncertainty is high due to high inflation and rising interest rates, we look for innovative companies to navigate the challenges successfully. At Argus, an 88-year-old independent research firm that has innovated a time or two in its long history, we have focused on four types of innovative companies: Industry Disruptors; First to Market; New Product Specialists; and Product & Process Perfectors. Here are some examples of companies, featured in our Innovation theme model portfolio.

Washed Out, Part 2. As the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Nasdaq 100 test their June bear-market lows and teeter on another major breakdown, we are starting to see some signs that at least a short-term bounce is near. Can we still see a mighty capitulation that gives up another 10%? Absolutely. And that might be what is needed to end the carnage. Another possibility is that the market continues lower over the next few months, never capitulates, and simply takes its time to find new lows.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) got smashed on Wednesday, falling 5.5% to $82/barrel, the lowest level since January. Just six days ago, crude almost hit $98 on an intraday basis. The stock market certainly benefited from the decline in oil and gasoline (which was down 4%) and probably also the move lower in the U.S. Dollar Index. Gasoline futures are off over $1.00 from their June highs and are back to the top of the range they traded in before Russia invaded Ukraine.

Stocks rose again on Friday morning, led by gains in the Consumer Discretionary and Energy sectors, as investors looked past Thursday's weak GDP numbers. Apple rose nearly 3% and Amazon nearly 11% following strong earnings reports. Exxon and Chevron also rallied after posting record profits. The Dow rose 0.5%, the S&P 0.8%, and the Nasdaq 1.0%. Crude oil rose 4% to $100 per barrel, while gold traded near $1780 per ounce.

Stocks plunged on Thursday morning amid mounting recession concerns, more than erasing yesterday's gains. The selloff came a day after the Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate by 75 basis points, the first such increase since 1994, and lowered its full-year U.S. GDP growth forecast. The Dow fell 2.4%, the S&P 3.2%, and the Nasdaq 3.9%. Crude oil traded near $116 per barrel, while gold rose $28 to $1847 per ounce.

Stocks were mixed on Monday morning following Friday's massive selloff, as investors awaited the Fed's policy statement on Wednesday and a likely 50-basis-point rate hike. Manufacturing data disappointed. The Institute for Supply Management said that its U.S. factory index fell to 55.4 in April, down from 57.1 in March and below the Reuters consensus forecast of 57.6. The reading was the lowest since July 2020. The Dow fell 0.3%, the S&P fell 0.3%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.2%. Crude oil fell slightly to $104 per barrel, while gold traded near $1868 per ounce.

Innovation may be hard to define. But to borrow from former U.S. Supreme Court Justice Potter Stewart, you know it when you see it. The United States economy is full of innovation. It has to be. Manufacturing industries that dominated the economy decades ago - textiles, televisions, even automobiles to a large degree - have moved overseas, where costs are lower. Yet the U.S. economy, even during the pandemic, has expanded to record levels. If U.S. corporations weren't innovating, creating new products (such as vaccines) and services and moving into new markets and applications, the domestic economy would not be growing, and capital would not be flooding into the country. Consider that U.S. GDP was approximately $1 trillion in 1930 but was more than $24 trillion at the end of 2021. That's growth of 24-times. Meanwhile, the U.S. population has grown less than three-times during that time span, to 320 million from 120 million. The delta between GDP growth and population growth has been driven, in large part, by innovation.

Innovation may be hard to define, but (to borrow from former U.S. Supreme Court Justice Potter Stewart) you know it when you see it. The United States economy is full of innovation. It has to be. Manufacturing industries that dominated the economy decades ago -- textiles, televisions, even automobiles, to a large degree -- have moved overseas, where costs are lower. Yet the U.S. economy is at its largest point in history and still growing. If U.S. corporations were not innovating, creating new products and services, and moving into new markets and applications, the domestic economy would be contracting, not expanding. As well, capital would not be flooding into the country. Particularly at this juncture of the market and economic cycles, when uncertainty is high due to the pandemic and upcoming changes to interest rates by the Federal Reserve, we look to innovative companies to navigate the challenges successfully. At Argus, an 88-year-old independent research firm that has innovated a time or two in its long history, we have focused on four types of innovative companies: Industry Disruptors; First to Market; New Product Specialists; and Product & Process Perfectors. Here are some examples of companies that are featured in our Innovation Theme Model Portfolio.

This edition features Gap's continued makeover, how packaged food firms can protect themselves from margin pressure, FedEx keeping on trucking, and Pendal Group, Starbucks, and Reckitt Benckiser.

Stocks fell sharply on Thursday morning after talks between the Ukrainian and Russian foreign ministers failed to produce a cease-fire agreement or other progress in ending the war. The selloff was also driven by more signs of surging inflation. The Labor Department said that its consumer price index rose 7.9% year-over-year in February, up from 7.5% in January and in line with the consensus forecast. The reading was the strongest annual increase since 1982. The core CPI, excluding food and energy, also rose 6.4% on an annual basis in February, up from 6.0% growth in January. The Dow fell 1.2%, the S&P 1.4%, and the Nasdaq 2.1%. Crude oil traded near $110 per barrel, while gold rose $11 to $1999 per ounce.

This edition features Okta's identity, opening up to Assa Abloy, and Bath & Body Works' value bubbling up.

This edition features Okta's identity, opening up to Assa Abloy, and Bath & Body Works' value bubbling up.

Stocks were mixed on Friday morning following a strong monthly employment report. The Labor Department said that the U.S. economy added 467,000 payroll jobs in January, well above the consensus forecast of 125,000. The report also showed a strong increase in December payrolls, which were revised up to 510,000 from the 199,000 reported last month. The official unemployment rate edged up to 4.0% from 3.9% in December. The Dow fell 0.3%, the S&P was flat, and the Nasdaq rose 0.8%. Crude oil jumped to nearly $93 per barrel, while gold traded near $1808 per ounce.

Explosive growth in mobile and fixed-line traffic is driving demand for robust data centers that are enabled for artificial intelligence (AI) and can manage rising and increasingly-complex traffic flow. Two-thirds of the world will have internet access by 2023, while the number of connected devices is expected to grow to three-times the global population. IoT (machine to machine or M2M) connections are expected to grow at a 30% CAGR. Security is a top need, as "denial of service" attacks are set to double by 2023. To handle the challenges of managing, storing, and securing data amid this explosive traffic growth, data centers will need to harness the power of artificial intelligence. AI enhances data center capabilities though the power of machine learning, inference, and deep learning, all in an application-accelerated environment. The AI data center also makes use of non-traditional and emerging technologies that provide more computing power than traditional CPU-based architectures. These include GPU Compute from NVidia and Tensor cores from Google/Alphabet. As of mid-year 2021, about 600 hyperscale data centers were in operation around the world, up from about 500 at year-end 2019 and double the number from five years ago. The bulk of data center construction is by hyperscale providers including AWS from Amazon.com, Microsoft Azure, Google Cloud from Alphabet, as well as with Chinese companies including Baidu and Alibaba. Co-location companies are another major data center driver, including Equinix and Digital Realty Trust. International Business Machines is providing hybrid cloud services that bridge public and private clouds. Other data center suppliers include semiconductor companies Broadcom, Marvell Technology, Intel, and Advanced Micro Devices. Stocks on the Argus Research BUY list that are in position to benefit include the following.

Sustainable Impact Investing is gaining traction with the global investment community. In January 2020, BlackRock CEO Lawrence Fink, who oversees approximately $9 trillion in assets, announced that his firm would be investing in companies that are making progress on sustainability. He doubled down in his January 2021 letter, calling on company managements to disclose their plans for making their businesses "compatible with a net-zero economy" by 2050. As assets have flowed in over the past 40 years, Sustainable Impact Investing has evolved. The discipline, originally known as Socially Responsible Investing, focused at first on excluding companies that conducted business in South Africa, or participated in industries such as tobacco, alcohol, and firearms. But the performance of these initial strategies lagged, and the approach has been modified. Now, instead of merely identifying industries to avoid, the discipline promotes "sustainable" business practices across all industries that can have an "impact" on global issues such as the climate, hunger, poverty, disease, shelter, and workers' rights.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

This edition features the U.S. gas market; the recovering airline industry; new coverage of equipment rental firms; and notes from Meta Platforms (better known as Facebook), Apple, and Amazon.

Stocks rose strongly on Thursday as investors weighed new GDP and employment data along with 3Q earnings reports from a range of major companies. The Commerce Department said that 3Q GDP rose just 2.0%, down from 6.7% in 2Q and below the Reuters consensus of 2.7%. First-time unemployment claims fell to a new pandemic-era low of 281,000, down from 291,000 a week earlier and below the consensus forecast of 288,000. Continuing claims dropped to 2.243 million from 2.480 million a week earlier, and were also below consensus. The Dow rose 0.68%, the S&P 0.98%, and the Nasdaq 1.39%. Crude oil rose to $83 per barrel, while gold rose slightly to $1800 per ounce.

The United States economy is full of innovation. It has to be. Manufacturing industries that dominated the economy decades ago - textiles, televisions, even automobiles to a large degree - have moved overseas, where costs are lower. Yet the U.S. economy, even during the pandemic, has expanded to record levels. If U.S. corporations weren't innovating, the domestic economy would not be growing and capital would not be flooding into the country. Consider that U.S. GDP was approximately $1 trillion in 1930 but nearly $23 trillion at the end of 1H21. That's growth of 23-times. Meanwhile, the U.S. population has grown less than three-times during that time span, to 320 million from 120 million. The delta between GDP growth and population growth has been driven, in large part, by innovation. In addition, the value of listed corporations on U.S. stock exchanges at the end of 2020 was approximately $41 trillion, according to SIFMA, representing 38% of global equity market capitalization, while U.S. GDP represented only 26% of global GDP. The current low level of interest rates and the relatively high level of the dollar both attest to the confidence that global investors have in the innovative U.S. economy.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

Last week, the stock market did what it often does in September, which is head lower. The S&P 500 fell 1.69% and the Nasdaq Composite declined 1.61%. The DJIA fared the worst, declining 2.15%, weighed down by Boeing.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

The U.S. economy added 943,000 jobs in July, better than the 875,000 consensus and a sign that economic recovery continues despite the Delta variant. Even more impressive were trends in unemployment and overall income. The unemployment rate dropped by a half percentage point, to 5.4% from 5.9%. Average hourly earnings were up 0.4%; and the average workweek rose 0.2%. The gains in hours and workweek put more money in the pockets of all workers, not just new hires. The re-opening trend continues to drive growth, as jobs gains were led by sectors such as leisure and hospitality (380k) and local government education (221k). Industries including professional and business services also added jobs. The prior two months featured strong upward revisions, with May growth at 583,000 jobs and June at 938,000. Heading into the payrolls report, the number of jobs was approximately 7 million lower than the pre-COVID level. Still, the economy added 1.9 million jobs in the past 60 days, a positive trajectory. The labor force participation rate remains low at 61.7%, edging up from 61.6% in June as more people look for work; the historical average is 65%. The number of people filing initial unemployment claims each week remains above 350K. Though trending in the right direction, the data indicates that the employment environment is still under stress. We expect the unemployment rate will remain above 5.0% -- and thus the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates low -- into 2022.

The stock market was flat to down last week as positive earnings surprises proved to be baked-in. Tech stocks modestly underperformed blue chips. During Friday's session, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 149 points, or 0.42%. The S&P 500 was down 0.54%, and the Nasdaq Composite was down 0.71%. For the week, the DJIA was down 126 points, or 0.36%, the S&P 500 was down 0.37%, and the Nasdaq Composite was down 1.11%. Year-to-date, the DJIA is up 14.14%, the S&P 500 is up 17.02%, and the Nasdaq Composite is up 13.85%.

This edition features electrical suppliers and the fight against greenhouse gases; more talk of tapering; Amazon's earnings; and notes from Tesla, Starbucks, and Pinterest.

In a week that began with somber discussions of an overdue correction, stocks wobbled -- and then used "buy the dip" momentum to race to new all-time highs. Although stocks suffered a drubbing on Monday, with the benchmark S&P 500 down 1.6% for the session, they clawed back on Tuesday through Thursday and then staged a big-finish Friday.

In late May, we commented on a trend that was developing in the weekly insider-sentiment data from Vickers Stock Research. Specifically, we noted a seeming shift in the behavior of insiders at companies that list on the NYSE as compared to those that list on the tech-heavy Nasdaq.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

This edition features Ford's electric future; the funeral industry in Australia; Amazon's move to buy MGM; and notes from Toll Brothers, General Mills, and Intuit.

The Housing Economy Awaits its Next Act

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

Stocks fell on Friday morning following a new round of first-quarter earnings reports from major companies along with March consumer spending data. The Commerce Department said that U.S. consumer spending rose a strong 4.2% last month after a decline of 1.0% in February. The reading came in slightly ahead of the Reuters consensus forecast of 4.1%. The Dow fell 0.6%, the S&P 0.5%, and the Nasdaq 0.2%. Crude oil traded near $64 per barrel, while gold fell slightly to $1769 per ounce.

Sustainable Impact Investing is gaining traction with the global investment community. In January 2020, BlackRock CEO Lawrence Fink, who oversees approximately $9 trillion in assets, announced that his firm would be investing in companies that are making progress on sustainability. He doubled down in his January 2021 letter, calling on company managements to disclose their plans for making their businesses "compatible with a net-zero economy" by 2050. As assets have flowed in over the past 40 years, Sustainable Impact Investing has evolved. The discipline, originally known as Socially Responsible Investing, focused at first on excluding companies that conducted business in South Africa, or participated in industries such as tobacco, alcohol, and firearms. But the performance of these initial strategies lagged, and the approach has been modified. Now, instead of merely identifying industries to avoid, the discipline promotes "sustainable" business practices across all industries that can have an "impact" on global issues such as the climate, hunger, poverty, disease, shelter, and workers' rights.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.