That first quarter was one heck of a party -- and now we've had two consecutive quarters of strong gains. As well, there have been five months with gains and 18 out 22 weeks in which the S&P 500 (SPX) has moved higher. And that happened with barely a speck of price volatility. The S&P 500 rose 10.2% in Q1, the S&P 100 (OEX) was up 10.9%, the Nasdaq (IXIC) was up 9.1%, the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) was up 8.5%, the S&P MidCap 400 (MDY) was up 9.9%, and the Russell 2000 (IWM) was up 5%. Bonds sold off a bit, the 10-year was up 34 basis points, gold (GLD) was up 7.6%, WTI was up 16%, the U.S. Dollar Index was up 2.4%, and Bitcoin soared 65%.

We see what we believe are some great opportunities right now in Healthcare -- and we like the sector overall. Argus Director of Research Jim Kelleher, CFA, recently completed his quarterly sector review and raised Healthcare sector to Over-Weight from Market-Weight. The healthcare environment is undergoing rapid transitions, and we now see an unfolding period of significant promise and opportunity. Our newly-favored stance is based on resumption of deferred medical procedures and significant new quality-of-life drugs and treatments. The category is broad and has underperformed the S&P 500 over the past year. The Healthcare sector ETF (XLV) is up 15% over the past year compared to a gain of 31% for the S&P 500. We see opportunity here to pick up some steady companies, with big brands and solid financials. These companies are science-focused and enhance lives. They are innovators. In our list this week, we look across several subsectors within the Healthcare sector and pull out some leaders we like. These stocks also are included in our Focus List and Model Portfolios, as noted below.

After a rough 2022, 2023 was a pleasant event, with all the indices posting gains and seven out of 11 S&P 500 (SPX) sectors posting nice to extraordinary gains. At the end of 2022, about 50% of SPX holdings were above their 50- and 200-day averages. At the end of 2023, 90% were over their 50-day and 78% were above their 200-day. The Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) finished 2023 with 93% of issues above their 50-day and 85% over the 200-day, versus 40% and 43%, respectively, in 2022.

By one popular definition, the stock market began a new bull market in June after the S&P 500 rose 20% from its bear-market lows set in October 2022. But there's another theory that says a bear market doesn't end until stocks reclaim all-time highs. Under that definition, the S&P 500 still needs to move more than 20 points higher to surpass the 4796 level. The bull scenario certainly seemed reasonable through July, as the S&P 500 was surging 28% from its prior depths. But from August through October, doubts were raised as stocks tumbled 10% and investors endured a correction. Since then, of course, stocks have climbed and, by our thinking, equities remain in the early stages of a bull market. Still, volatility is an issue due to geopolitical developments, high interest rates, the risk of recession, and the upcoming 2024 U.S. presidential election. On the positive side, we anticipate that the U.S. economy will steer clear of recession into 2025, the Federal Reserve will start to lower interest rates in 2024, and earnings growth is poised to accelerate over the next few quarters. The VIX Volatility Index is currently sending a more-optimistic signal. The current fear index reading is around 14, which is below the 15-year average of 20.5 and signals that investors aren't overly worried about the outlook. These readings compare to the average VIX of 24 during the most-recent bear market and 35 during the financial crisis of 2008-2009. During the long bull market in the 2010s, the VIX averaged 18 and even touched lows below 10 in 2017.

Weekly Tee Up: Happy Holidays!

Sustainable Impact Investing, or ESG investing, is gaining traction not only with Argus Research clients but also with the global investment community. BlackRock CEO Lawrence Fink, who oversees approximately $9 trillion in assets, announced in January 2020 that his firm would be investing in companies that are making progress on sustainability. He doubled down in his January 2021 letter, calling on company managements to disclose their plans for making their businesses "compatible with a net-zero economy" by 2050. As assets have flowed in over the past 40 years, Sustainable Impact Investing has evolved. The discipline, originally known as Socially Responsible Investing, focused at first on excluding companies that conducted business in South Africa, or participated in industries such as tobacco, alcohol, and firearms. Performance of these initial strategies lagged, and the approach has been modified. Now, instead of merely identifying industries to avoid, the discipline promotes "sustainable" business practices across all industries that can have an "impact" on global issues such as climate, hunger, poverty, disease, shelter, and workers' rights.

Sustainable Impact Investing, or ESG investing, is gaining traction not only with Argus Research clients but also with the global investment community. BlackRock CEO Lawrence Fink, who oversees approximately $9 trillion in assets, announced in January 2020 that his firm would be investing in companies that are making progress on sustainability. He doubled down in his January 2021 letter, calling on company managements to disclose their plans for making their businesses "compatible with a net-zero economy" by 2050. As assets have flowed in over the past 40 years, Sustainable Impact Investing has evolved. The discipline, originally known as Socially Responsible Investing, focused at first on excluding companies that conducted business in South Africa, or participated in industries such as tobacco, alcohol, and firearms. Performance of these initial strategies lagged, and the approach has been modified. Now, instead of merely identifying industries to avoid, the discipline promotes "sustainable" business practices across all industries that can have an "impact" on global issues such as climate, hunger, poverty, disease, shelter, and workers' rights.

Innovation may be hard to define. But to borrow from former U.S. Supreme Court Justice Potter Stewart, you know it when you see it. The United States economy is full of innovation. It has to be. Manufacturing industries that dominated the economy decades ago - textiles, televisions, even automobiles to a large degree - have moved overseas, where labor and materials costs are lower. Yet the U.S. economy, even during the pandemic and the current period of high inflation, has expanded to record levels. If U.S. corporations weren't innovating, creating new products (such as vaccines) and services (such as Zoom calls) and moving into new markets and applications, the domestic economy would not be growing, and capital would not be flooding into the country. The current high level of the U.S. dollar relative to currencies around the world attests to the confidence that global investors have in the durable and innovative U.S. economy.

In this edition, analyzing new bank regulatory proposals; PFA may shake up atrial fibrillation ablation market; CEO change at Dollar General may make sense to frustrated investors; and Microsoft, Wells Fargo, and Anta Sports Products.

Stocks fell sharply on Thursday amid hawkish comments from Fed officials, as investors awaited Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech in Jackson Hole on Friday morning. Nvidia gave up most of its early gains and finished nearly flat for the day, and Boeing shares fell 5% after the company warned of delivery delays for its 737 MAX jets due to a defective part from a supplier. On the employment front, first-time claims for state unemployment benefits fell by 10,000 to a seasonally adjusted 230,000 for the week ended August 19, below the Reuters consensus forecast of 240,000. Continuing claims fell by 9,000 to 1.702 million. The Dow fell 1.08%, the S&P 1.35%, and the Nasdaq 1.87%. Crude oil traded near $79 per barrel, while gold fell $3 to $1945 per ounce.

Our analysis of data that has been reported in recent weeks leads us to conclude that key parts of U.S. GDP are still expanding, despite the impact of higher interest rates, inflation, the pandemic, and geopolitical developments. That said, growth is not consistent across all segments of the economy and, in many cases, growth rates are slowing. The risk of recession is real -- but a U.S. recession is not a foregone conclusion. We look for uneven growth in 2023, with the high possibility of a negative quarter or two. After reviewing the latest economic fundamentals, we are maintaining our 2Q23 GDP estimate of 2.5%. We anticipate that the second quarter could be the strongest quarter of the year, before the higher rates dampen consumer spending in the second half. Our estimate for the full year 2023 remains 1.4%. Our preliminary forecast for GDP growth in 2024 is now 2.0%, as the Federal Reserve, with its tool chest again full after hiking rates during 1H23, can contemplate lowering interest rates to recharge economic growth. Our estimates generally are in the range with other forecasters, though perhaps a bit higher than the consensus. The Wall Street Journal Economic Survey calls for GDP growth of 0.5% in 2023 and 1.6% in 2024. The Federal Reserve is anticipating GDP growth of 0.4% for 2023, and for growth of 1.2% in 2024. Meanwhile, the IMF is calling for 2023 growth of 1.6%, and the Philadelphia Federal Reserve's Survey of Professional Forecasters is calling for growth of 1.3% in 2023 and 1.4% in 2024. The GDPNow Forecast from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta is 1.9% for 2Q23.

Stocks initially rallied on Tuesday to start the holiday-shortened trading week, but wobbled by midday. NVDA became the first semiconductor stock with a $1 trillion market cap. But with technical traders jumping off as fast as they jumped on, a close above $1 trillion failed.

Sustainable Impact Investing, or ESG investing, is gaining traction not only with Argus Research clients but also with the global investment community. BlackRock CEO Lawrence Fink, who oversees approximately $9 trillion in assets, announced in January 2020 that his firm would be investing in companies that are making progress on sustainability. He doubled down in his January 2021 letter, calling on company managements to disclose their plans for making their businesses "compatible with a net-zero economy" by 2050. As assets have flowed in over the past 40 years, Sustainable Impact Investing has evolved. The discipline, originally known as Socially Responsible Investing, focused at first on excluding companies that conducted business in South Africa, or participated in industries such as tobacco, alcohol, and firearms. Performance of these initial strategies lagged, and the approach has been modified. Now, instead of merely identifying industries to avoid, the discipline promotes "sustainable" business practices across all industries that can have an "impact" on global issues such as climate, hunger, poverty, disease, shelter, and workers' rights.

Weekly Tee Up: Jobs Friday

Vickers Stock Research, a subsidiary of Argus Research Group, tracks and analyzes insider trading and institutional stock ownership trends. Form 13-Fs, which institutions must file to report their holdings, are due 45 days after the end of calendar quarters, and have now come in from 1Q23. We review the 13Fs of the major activist investors, including Carl Icahn, Trian Fund Management, Jana Partners and ValueAct Holdings, among others, in order to determine their core holdings and new purchases. Activist investing has evolved in recent years and is now less about generating a short-term return on an underpriced stock and more about achieving long-term returns through an active management/investor partnership. Activists have made progress in the past year with high-profile investments into blue-chip companies such as FedEx Inc. and Union Pacific. Based on Vickers data, here are some recent new purchases and key holdings of Activist investors, as well as other high-profile money managers such as Warren Buffet of Berkshire Hathaway and Ken Griffin of Citadel Advisors LLC.

A good trivia question -- be it about sports, politics, the weather, the stock market, whatever. -- can confound the brightest person in the room or the person with the best memory. Along those lines: What major stock market peaked in 1989 and remains below that peak? Anyone who has been in the stock market for a long time might well know the answer -- which is, of course, the Nikkei 225.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

After most stocks bottomed in September and October of 2022, the dispersion among sectors and industry groups has been dramatic. This is typical when a market has no direction; when market participants are confused; when there is an uncertain global economy; when there is massive confusion about where market and government rates are going; when OPEC is making waves; and when there is a war in full swing. If anything is (somewhat) hot, investors jump on the bandwagon quickly and jump away even quicker from industries and sectors that are heading lower.

Yesterday featured additional volatile price action, as a late-day buying spree by the bulls turned an ugly intraday reversal into very nice gains. On Monday, we talked about initial resistance that is between 3,940 and 3,950. On Tuesday, the S&P 500 (SPX) ran up to 3,937 before lunch, gave most of it back, and then rallied 45 points in the last 45 minutes of the trading session. The SPX gained 1.7%, the Nasdaq jumped 2.1%, and the Nasdaq 100 popped 2.3%. The short-term downtrend off the early February highs is still intact for the three indices, but it wouldn't take much to break the slide.

Stocks fell sharply on Thursday as investors weighed new inflation, employment, and housing market data. Producer prices rose more than expected, raising concerns about continued aggressive rate hikes, while weak housing starts and building permits showed the impact of high mortgage rates. Meanwhile, weekly unemployment claims pointed to a still strong labor market. The Labor Department said that first-time claims for state unemployment benefits fell by 1,000 to 194,000 for the week ended February 11, below the Reuters consensus forecast of 200,000. The Dow fell 1.26%, the S&P 1.38%, and the Nasdaq 1.78%. Crude oil traded near $78 per barrel, while gold rose $3 to $1848 per ounce.

October, as it has been many times in the past, was a wild month -- and at least a short-term bear killer. The month started out great and then the major indices fell off a small cliff and declined to new bear-market lows. But stocks had an amazing bullish reversal on October 13 and have been grinding nicely higher ever since. While it's a start, we are a long way from putting the bear fully into hibernation, despite the calendar's turn toward colder weather.

After rallying across July and most of August, the stock market fell hard on Monday, posting its worst single-day loss since June. In that month, stocks fell hard on bad inflation data. This time, there was no evident driver of the selloff, except potential profit-taking after strong gains were logged over the past six weeks.

The Federal Reserve wrapped up its latest Open Market Committee meeting on Wednesday and, as expected in the wake of last Friday's alarming CPI report, raised the federal funds rate by 75 basis points to 1.50%-1.75%. This is the third increase since the central bank lowered the rate to the rock-bottom level of 0.00%-0.25% early in the pandemic, and the first 75-bps hike by the Fed since 1994. Eight of the nine voting governors were in agreement about the hike, as inflation remains elevated. Indeed, the Fed is now forecasting that PCE inflation will rise at a 5.2% rate in 2022, up from its 4.3% projection a month ago. Of note, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated only last month that a 75-basis-point fed funds rate hike was not yet on the table. So we are now in a period in which it seems the bond market is the "wagger" and the central bank is the "tail." But it is also worth pointing out that Chairman Powell has indicated consistently that the Fed would be "data dependent" -- and that the May CPI report was an important data point. As such, the Federal Reserve is accelerating the pace of its rate hikes. While the U.S. economy is in fairly good shape and likely can continue to grow for another quarter or two, the odds of a recession in 2023 are rapidly increasing.

Stocks fell sharply in late trading on Thursday as investors awaited new inflation data on Friday morning. On the employment front, first-time jobless claims rose to 229,000, up from the prior week and above the consensus estimate. Continuing claims held steady at 1.306 million. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank said that it would end its quantitative easing policy on July 1 and raise interest rates by 25 basis points on July 21. This hike is likely to be followed by a larger 50-basis-point increase in September. The Dow fell 1.94%, the S&P 2.38%, and the Nasdaq 2.75%. Crude oil traded near $121 per barrel, while gold fell $7 to $1849 per ounce.

With the market focus shifting from inflation to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, stocks finished last week with a surprise two-day rally that included the best stock day of 2022. On Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average soared by 835 points, or 2.51%. The S&P 500 rose 2.24%, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.64%. For the week, the DJIA was down 20 points, or 0.1%, while the S&P 500 rose 0.82%, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.09%. For the year to date, the Dow is down 6.2%; the S&P 500 is off 8.01%; and the Nasdaq Composite remains in correction territory though off its lows, down 12.47%.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

Stocks fell on Wednesday morning following more signs of accelerating inflation. The Labor Department reported that U.S. consumer prices rose 6.2% year-over-year in October, up from 5.4% in September and above the consensus forecast of 5.9% growth. On the employment front, first-time claims for state unemployment benefits fell to 267,000 for the week ended November 5, down from 271,000 a week earlier but above the consensus forecast of 260,000. The report was released on Wednesday this week due to the Veterans Day holiday on Thursday. The Dow fell 0.1%, the S&P 0.1%, and the Nasdaq 0.4%. Crude oil traded near $83.50 per barrel, while gold rose $28 to $1859 per ounce.

September is behaving just like September. It is the one month out of the 12 in which stocks have, on average, lost ground since 1980. As noted by Argus Director of Research Jim Kelleher, CFA, 'until September has concluded and the generally positive fourth quarter is underway, we would be cautious.' That is reasonable guidance and is in keeping with the current trading actions of corporate insiders.

The stock market moved slightly higher last week, with outperformance from blue-chip stocks. During Friday's session, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 0.52%. The S&P 500 was up 0.88% and the Nasdaq Composite was up 1.47%. For the week, the DJIA rose 0.66%, the S&P 500 0.61%, and the Nasdaq Composite 0.48%. Year-to-date, the DJIA is up 13.56%, the S&P 500 12.61%, and the Nasdaq 7.19%.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

There's nothing like a week-long selling jag to get the bullish juices flowing once again. After the S&P 500 set a new all-time closing high at 3,855 on 1/25/21, GameStop hysteria seized the market. A relatively small set of retail investors, embracing YOLO (you only live once), pushed GME to unsustainable highs in the mid-$300s. Although this occurred among a small group of investors in a small set of stocks, fear grew that an equity asset bubble had been discovered, and broad selling took over. By 1/29/21, the final trading day in January, the S&P 500 had fallen 3.7% or by about 140 points.

This edition features the year ahead for the coronavirus vaccine; spinal cord stimulation innovation; the Democratic wins in Georgia and the impact on our coverage; and notes from Molson Coors, Intel, and new coverage Exact Sciences.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

Stocks rose strongly on Tuesday morning as American voters went to the polls and waited anxiously for the first returns this evening. Despite substantial uncertainty about the counting of mail-in ballots, tightening polls in several swing states, and control of the Senate, the rally suggested that investors were betting on a clear victory for Joe Biden and Senate Democrats, and on the economic boost that would come from a strong fiscal stimulus package. The Dow rose 2.5%, the S&P 2.3%, and the Nasdaq 2.1%. Crude oil traded near $38 per barrel, while gold rose $15 to $1908 per ounce.

Stocks fell on Thursday morning after the Federal Reserve indicated that it would keep interest rates near zero for the next three years. The announcement came as first-time unemployment claims of 860,000 were down from last week but still remain high. Continuing claims were 12.6 million, compared to 1.7 million a year ago. The Commerce Department reported that new housing starts for the month of August were an annualized 1.416 million units, 5.1% below the revised July estimate of 1.492 million units. The Dow fell 0.2%, the S&P 0.6%, and the Nasdaq 1.1%. Crude oil traded near $41 per barrel, while gold fell $16 to $1954 per ounce.

Stocks fell on Thursday morning after the Federal Reserve indicated that it would keep interest rates near zero for the next three years. The announcement came as first-time unemployment claims of 860,000 were down from last week but still remain high. Continuing claims were 12.6 million, compared to 1.7 million a year ago. The Commerce Department reported that new housing starts for the month of August were an annualized 1.416 million units, 5.1% below the revised July estimate of 1.492 million units. The Dow fell 0.2%, the S&P 0.6%, and the Nasdaq 1.1%. Crude oil traded near $41 per barrel, while gold fell $16 to $1954 per ounce.

Technology has been the leading sector in 2020, which continues a multi-year pattern and also reflects new inputs. The iShares Technology ETF (IYW) is up 4.6% year-to-date, while the S&P 500 is down 9.3% and the DJIA is off 14.7%.

Technology has been the leading sector in 2020, which continues a multi-year pattern and also reflects new inputs. The iShares Technology ETF (IYW) is up 4.6% year-to-date, while the S&P 500 is down 9.3% and the DJIA is off 14.7%.

U.S. stocks plunged again on Wednesday morning, largely erasing yesterday's late-day rally, amid continued concerns about the government's response to the coronavirus crisis. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said that the White House would push for a broad economic stimulus package, including actions to help small and medium-sized businesses, but did not provide details. The Dow fell 4.4%, the S&P 4.0%, and the Nasdaq 3.7%. Crude oil fell more than 2% to $33.50 per barrel, while gold traded near $1660 per ounce.

U.S. stocks plunged again on Wednesday morning, largely erasing yesterday's late-day rally, amid continued concerns about the government's response to the coronavirus crisis. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said that the White House would push for a broad economic stimulus package, including actions to help small and medium-sized businesses, but did not provide details. The Dow fell 4.4%, the S&P 4.0%, and the Nasdaq 3.7%. Crude oil fell more than 2% to $33.50 per barrel, while gold traded near $1660 per ounce.

Boston Scientific produces less-invasive medical devices that are inserted into the human body through small openings or cuts. It manufactures products for use in angioplasty, blood clot filtration, cardiac rhythm management, catheter-directed ultrasound imaging, structural heart disease, upper gastrointestinal tract tests, and treatment of incontinence. The firm markets its devices to healthcare professionals and institutions globally. Foreign sales account for nearly half of the firm's total sales.