Management's ability to "raise guidance" can often be a catalyst for market-beating returns in the quarters ahead. The fourth-quarter earnings season has crossed the 95% mark and is wrapping up, with blended earnings (actual results and the consensus for those still to report) showing a year-over-year gain of almost 10%, according to Refinitiv. That is considerably better than the 4%-7% advance expected at the start of the earnings period. Leading the outperformance were strong gains in Communication Services earnings, up 53%. On the flipside, Energy (like last quarter) is performing the worst, down 22%. Our analysts are always on the lookout for companies that boost their outlooks during earnings season. Here is an initial list of BUY-rated companies in Argus' Fundamental Universe of Coverage at which management raised guidance or increased its outlook during the 4Q23 EPS reporting season.

Stock indices are at all-time highs, while the overall tone in current and recent sell/buy ratios from Vickers Stock Research remains one of clear caution. Indeed, at 5.47, Vickers' Total One-Week Sell/Buy ratio, which measures activity across the NYSE, Nasdaq, and American Stock Exchange, is at its highest level since July 2023, shortly before the market experienced a 10% pullback in stock prices that extended until late October 2023. With readings above 2.50 signifying bearish sentiment, the Total One-Week ratio has now been in bearish territory since late November, fueling a rise in the Total Eight-Week Sell/Buy ratio to its current reading of 4.51. These cautious readings align with other developing concerns, such as overbought momentum, overbought breadth, and market sentiment that is exceedingly hot. Stocks have performed nicely so far in 2024, but insiders, with a recent uptick in pre-planned sales and decrease in buying, still seem to be building a defensive case.

Stocks edged higher on Monday morning, extending last week's gains amid optimism about an end to Fed rate hikes. Investors weighed earnings reports from Berkshire Hathaway and Dish Network and awaited results from Disney later in the week. Tesla also announced plans to build a relatively low-cost electric car at its plant in Germany. The Dow rose 0.2%, the S&P 0.1%, and the Nasdaq 0.1%. Crude oil rose more than 1% to $81.50 per barrel while gold fell $9 to trade near $1990 per ounce.

Monday Tee Up: Walmart's Turn

Stocks gave up early gains on Friday morning on news of a setback in the debt ceiling negotiations between the Biden administration and House Republicans. Representative Garret Graves of Louisiana, the lead negotiator on the Republican side, said that it was time to 'press pause' because the negotiations were not productive. On the earnings front, Deere & Co. reported stronger-than-expected fiscal 2Q EPS and raised its full-year guidance. On the negative side, footwear retailer Foot Locker plunged 27% after reporting disappointing 1Q results and cutting its sales and earnings forecasts. The Dow fell 0.3%, the S&P 0.1%, and the Nasdaq 0.2%. Crude oil fell to $71.50 per barrel, while gold traded near $1982 per ounce.

Stocks fell in volatile trading on Tuesday morning following new inflation data. The Labor Department reported that its consumer price index rose 6.4% from the prior year in January, down slightly from a 6.5% increase in December. Excluding food and energy prices, the core CPI rose at a 5.6% annual rate last month, down from 5.7% in December but above the consensus forecast of 5.5% growth. The Dow fell 1.2%, the S&P 0.9%, and the Nasdaq 0.8%. Crude oil fell more than 1% to $79 per barrel, while gold traded near $1862 per ounce.

Monday Tee Up: Inflation, Midterms, Earnings

In this edition, Australian oil and gas has lots of fuel, streaming services keep flowing along, Asbury Automotive has a good road ahead, and Kone, BlackRock, and Domino's Pizza.

Recession Barometer: Struggling Consumers, Busy Business Economy

Stocks rose on Wednesday morning ahead of the release of the Federal Reserve's latest meeting minutes. With recession fears mounting, investors will be looking closely at the comments of Fed officials on inflation and the pace of interest rate hikes. Durable goods orders were weaker than expected. The Commerce Department said that orders for durable goods rose 0.4% in April, down from 0.6% in March and below the consensus estimate of 0.6% growth. Orders for core capital goods excluding aircraft rose 0.3%, down from 1.1% growth in March and also below consensus. The Dow rose 0.3%, the S&P 0.6%, and the Nasdaq 0.9%. Crude oil rose slightly to $110 per barrel, while gold fell $16 to $1849 per ounce.

This edition features our oil market update, Sea's challenges in shoring up profitability, the rhythm of media entertainment's pulse, and BASF, Alibaba, and BlackRock.

Volatility, in both indices and individual stocks, remains extreme. Once a market pulls back by a decent amount (8%-10%) or correct (11%-20%), it is typical for that market to be wild from day to day, and even week to week. A new trading range for many stocks and indices is being hammered-out right now -- and the process usually takes some time (assuming a low is in) to complete a bottom.

Stocks were mixed on Thursday morning amid continued concerns about accelerating inflation. Disney shares fell more than 7% after the company posted disappointing fiscal 4Q earnings and much lower than expected growth in Disney+ subscriptions. The Dow fell 0.2%, the S&P rose 0.2%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.8%. Crude oil rose slightly to $81.50 per barrel, while gold traded near $1864 per ounce.

Second-quarter earnings announcements are nearly complete, with some 90% of S&P 500 companies having reported. The profit recovery from the depths of the pandemic low in 2Q20 was been swift, with earnings growth of 93% in 2Q21, according to Refinitiv. But earnings do not look good just on a relative basis -- the $53.93 projected to be earned by S&P 500 companies for the second quarter is the highest ever for the index. Investors can now turn their attention to the third quarter, when earnings are expected to rise a still-strong 30% year-over-year. Our analysts are always on the lookout for companies that raise their outlooks during earnings season. Management's ability to "raise guidance" can often be a catalyst to strong returns in the quarters ahead. Here are 20 BUY-rated companies in Argus coverage for which management has raised guidance or increased its outlook during the 2Q21 EPS reporting season.

Stocks were mixed on Wednesday morning as investors weighed new consumer price data. The Labor Department said that its consumer price index rose 0.5% in July, down from 0.9% in June and in line with the Reuters consensus forecast. Consumer prices also rose 5.4% from the prior year, slightly above the consensus forecast of 5.3%. The Dow rose 0.5%, the S&P was flat, and the Nasdaq fell 0.6%. Crude oil traded near $67.50 per barrel, while gold rose $20 to $1752 per ounce.

Stocks were mixed on Tuesday morning following earnings from JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs, and new consumer price data. The Labor Department said that its consumer price index jumped 5.4% year-over-year in June, up from 5.0% in May. The reading marked the fastest growth since August 2008 and topped the consensus estimate. Core consumer prices, excluding food and energy, also jumped 4.5% from the prior year in June, up from 3.8% in May. The Dow fell 0.1%, the S&P rose 0.1%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.5%. Crude oil traded near $74 per barrel, while gold rose $6 to $1812 per ounce.

Positive 1Q21 Earnings Trends Boost EPS Forecasts

There's nothing like a week-long selling jag to get the bullish juices flowing once again. After the S&P 500 set a new all-time closing high at 3,855 on 1/25/21, GameStop hysteria seized the market. A relatively small set of retail investors, embracing YOLO (you only live once), pushed GME to unsustainable highs in the mid-$300s. Although this occurred among a small group of investors in a small set of stocks, fear grew that an equity asset bubble had been discovered, and broad selling took over. By 1/29/21, the final trading day in January, the S&P 500 had fallen 3.7% or by about 140 points.

This edition features innovation in cancer screening; video games amid the pandemic; the new administration's effect on energy and utilities companies; and notes from Western Union, Fastenal, and new coverage Neogen.

The Portfolio Selector features the Argus Focus List, a group of 30 "best idea" stocks generated and regularly updated by Argus' analysts and investment policy committee. It also includes the director of research’s monthly investment strategy column, stock recommendations and sector picks, economic forecasts, and an asset allocation model. This month, the Focus List additions are Anthem Inc (ANTM); Activision Blizzard Inc (ATVI); Coca-Cola Co (KO); International Business Machine (IBM) and the Focus List deletions are Procter & Gamble Co. (PG); Electronic Arts, Inc. (EA); CIENA Corp. (CIEN); Vertex Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (VRTX).

Review and Outlook into Year-End 2020

Our rating on the Communication Services sector is Over-Weight. While existing pressures on the sector continue, including assaults by regulators on social media companies and intense competition among telecom companies, these concerns have been superseded by COVID-19. In this "barbell" sector, telco giants Verizon and AT&T are now apparent islands of relative stability and secure income. Simultaneously, internet giants Alphabet and Facebook are acting as forums for community concerns about the coronavirus. The style mix of the sector is approximately one-third "value" and two-thirds "growth." The adjusted pro-forma beta is approximately 1.0 (like the old Telecoms), while the yield is 0.9% (reflecting the impact of Google and Facebook). The smoothed growth rate is 7% and the P/E ratio is 21-times. The sector accounts for 11% of the S&P 500. We think investors should consider allocating 12%- 14% of their diversified Portfolios to the sector. Here are some of our top picks.

Sustainable Impact Investing is gaining traction with the global investment community. In January, BlackRock CEO Lawrence Fink, who oversees approximately $7 trillion in assets, announced that his firm would be investing in companies that are making progress on sustainability. Mr. Fink's new focus follows rapid growth in sustainable assets in recent years. According to Opimas, a management consultancy focused on global capital markets, global assets under management in ESG strategies had grown to $40.5 trillion in 2020, doubling in four years and tripling in eight years. As assets have flowed in over the past 40 years, Sustainable Impact Investing has evolved. The discipline, originally known as Socially Responsible Investing, focused at first on excluding companies for various reasons. Now, the discipline promotes "sustainable" business practices across all industries that can have an "impact" on global issues.

Volume is now returning to the weekly data from Vickers Stock Research. After a lull during earnings season, when corporate executives, directors and beneficial owners were broadly prohibited from trading, the volume of insider transactions has started to move higher again. This week, some 1423 transactions met the criteria for inclusion in the Weekly Insider Report. That compares to a weekly average of 728 transactions for the last six weeks. As such, the signals thrown off by insiders are now more meaningful. So, what are those signals?

Volume is now returning to the weekly data from Vickers Stock Research. After a lull during earnings season, when corporate executives, directors and beneficial owners were broadly prohibited from trading, the volume of insider transactions has started to move higher again. This week, some 1423 transactions met the criteria for inclusion in the Weekly Insider Report. That compares to a weekly average of 728 transactions for the last six weeks. As such, the signals thrown off by insiders are now more meaningful. So, what are those signals?

July more than lived up to its reputation as the best summer stock month, delivering capital appreciation of 5.5%. End of story: nothing to see here, move along.

July more than lived up to its reputation as the best summer stock month, delivering capital appreciation of 5.5%. End of story: nothing to see here, move along.

A few weeks ago, at the height of earnings season, we were undertaking our weekly review of insider-transaction data from Vickers Stock Research. Transaction volume was low because many insiders were restricted from trading. We wrote: 'As earnings season draws to a close, trades made by corporate executives, directors and beneficial owners will again play a greater role in our analysis.' As a result, we continued, 'we'll get a better sense of where insider sentiment is headed.'

A few weeks ago, at the height of earnings season, we were undertaking our weekly review of insider-transaction data from Vickers Stock Research. Transaction volume was low because many insiders were restricted from trading. We wrote: 'As earnings season draws to a close, trades made by corporate executives, directors and beneficial owners will again play a greater role in our analysis.' As a result, we continued, 'we'll get a better sense of where insider sentiment is headed.'

We recently raised our rating on the Communication Services sector to Over-Weight from Market-Weight. While existing pressures remain, including assault by regulators on social media companies and intense competition among telecom companies, these concerns have been superseded by COVID-19. In this "barbell" sector, telco giants Verizon and AT&T are now apparent islands of relative stability and secure income. Simultaneously, internet giants Alphabet & Facebook are acting as forums for community concerns around the coronavirus outbreak. Given the lack of historical performance data for the new sector, S&P Dow Jones Indices performed pro-forma back-testing over a 10-year period to determine the general characteristics of the new sector. The style mix is approximately one-third "value" and two-thirds "growth," while the predecessor Telecom sector was 100% value. The adjusted pro-forma beta is approximately 0.8 (like the old Telecoms), while the yield is 0.9% (reflecting the impact of Google and Facebook). The smoothed growth rate is 8% and the P/E ratio is 19.6x. The sector accounts for 10.6% of the S&P 500. We think investors should consider allocating 12%-14% of their diversified Portfolios to the sector.

EA is one of the world's largest third-party video game publishers and has transitioned from a console-based video game publisher to the one of the largest publishers on consoles, PC, and mobile. The firm owns number of large franchises, including Madden, FIFA, Battlefield, Mass Effect, Dragon’s Age, and Need for Speed. EA recently signed a 10-year contract with Disney that granted EA the exclusive rights to develop Star Wars games for core gamers across all platforms.

The Portfolio Selector features the Argus Focus List, a group of 30 "best idea" stocks generated and regularly updated by Argus' analysts and investment policy committee. It also includes the director of research’s monthly investment strategy column, stock recommendations and sector picks, economic forecasts, and an asset allocation model. This month, the Focus List additions are American Express Co. (AXP); Regeneron Phars, Inc (REGN); Electronic Arts, Inc. (EA); TJX Companies, Inc. (TJX) and the Focus List deletions are Charles River Laboratories Int (CRL); Walt Disney Co (The) (DIS); MGM Resorts International (MGM); Raymond James Financial, Inc. (RJF).

The Portfolio Selector features the Argus Focus List, a group of 30 "best idea" stocks generated and regularly updated by Argus' analysts and investment policy committee. It also includes the director of research’s monthly investment strategy column, stock recommendations and sector picks, economic forecasts, and an asset allocation model. This month, the Focus List additions are American Express Co. (AXP); Regeneron Phars, Inc (REGN); Electronic Arts, Inc. (EA); TJX Companies, Inc. (TJX) and the Focus List deletions are Charles River Laboratories Int (CRL); Walt Disney Co (The) (DIS); MGM Resorts International (MGM); Raymond James Financial, Inc. (RJF).

Stocks rose on Tuesday morning as investors weighed congressional testimony from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who emphasized the continued strength of the U.S. economy while also noting the risks posed by the coronavirus. T-Mobile shares rose 10% after a federal judge approved the company's merger with Sprint, while Under Armour fell more than 16% after issuing disappointing guidance. The Dow rose 0.1%, the S&P 0.5%, and the Nasdaq 0.8%. Crude oil traded near $50 per barrel, while gold fell $12 to $1568 per ounce.

Stocks rose on Tuesday morning as investors weighed congressional testimony from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who emphasized the continued strength of the U.S. economy while also noting the risks posed by the coronavirus. T-Mobile shares rose 10% after a federal judge approved the company's merger with Sprint, while Under Armour fell more than 16% after issuing disappointing guidance. The Dow rose 0.1%, the S&P 0.5%, and the Nasdaq 0.8%. Crude oil traded near $50 per barrel, while gold fell $12 to $1568 per ounce.

Volume is now returning to the weekly data from Vickers Stock Research. After a lull during earnings season, when corporate executives, directors and beneficial owners were broadly prohibited from trading, the volume of insider transactions has started to move higher again. This week, some 1423 transactions met the criteria for inclusion in the Weekly Insider Report. That compares to a weekly average of 728 transactions for the last six weeks. As such, the signals thrown off by insiders are now more meaningful. So, what are those signals?

July more than lived up to its reputation as the best summer stock month, delivering capital appreciation of 5.5%. End of story: nothing to see here, move along.

A few weeks ago, at the height of earnings season, we were undertaking our weekly review of insider-transaction data from Vickers Stock Research. Transaction volume was low because many insiders were restricted from trading. We wrote: 'As earnings season draws to a close, trades made by corporate executives, directors and beneficial owners will again play a greater role in our analysis.' As a result, we continued, 'we'll get a better sense of where insider sentiment is headed.'

The Portfolio Selector features the Argus Focus List, a group of 30 "best idea" stocks generated and regularly updated by Argus' analysts and investment policy committee. It also includes the director of research’s monthly investment strategy column, stock recommendations and sector picks, economic forecasts, and an asset allocation model. This month, the Focus List additions are American Express Co. (AXP); Regeneron Phars, Inc (REGN); Electronic Arts, Inc. (EA); TJX Companies, Inc. (TJX) and the Focus List deletions are Charles River Laboratories Int (CRL); Walt Disney Co (The) (DIS); MGM Resorts International (MGM); Raymond James Financial, Inc. (RJF).

Stocks rose on Tuesday morning as investors weighed congressional testimony from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who emphasized the continued strength of the U.S. economy while also noting the risks posed by the coronavirus. T-Mobile shares rose 10% after a federal judge approved the company's merger with Sprint, while Under Armour fell more than 16% after issuing disappointing guidance. The Dow rose 0.1%, the S&P 0.5%, and the Nasdaq 0.8%. Crude oil traded near $50 per barrel, while gold fell $12 to $1568 per ounce.