Etsy, Inc. (ETSY) stock forecast and price target

Earnings, Employment, Economy: Three Es Keeping Recession at Bay

Stocks were mixed on Tuesday morning as investors weighed new housing market and consumer confidence data. S&P Case-Shiller said that growth in U.S. home prices continued to slow. Prices rose 5.8% from the prior year in December, down from 7.6% growth in November and the smallest year-over-year gain since mid-2020. Consumer confidence fell. The Conference Board said that its consumer confidence index fell to 102.9 in February, down from 106.0 in January and below the Reuters consensus forecast of 108.5. On the earnings front, Target posted stronger-than-expected fiscal 4Q results but offered cautious full-year guidance. The Dow fell 0.3%, the S&P rose 0.1%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.2%. Crude oil rose 2% to $77 per barrel, while gold traded near $1832 per ounce.

As expected, the FOMC raised the fed funds rate by 25 basis points (bps), moving the funds target range to 4.5% to 4.75%. The Fed is still guiding for a terminal rate of at least 5.00% to 5.25%. But in his commentary, Chairman Powell changed one sentence from prior statements, becoming a bit more dovish than in the recent past. Yes, the Fed's release is gone over with a fine-tooth comb and any changes to the wording at this point are given great importance.

Stocks were mixed on Friday morning following a generally strong October employment report. The Labor Department said that the U.S. economy added 261,000 nonfarm payroll jobs last month, down from a revised 315,000 in September but well above the Bloomberg consensus forecast of 195,000. The official unemployment rate ticked up to 3.7%, above the consensus of 3.6%. Average hourly earnings rose 0.4% from the prior month, above the consensus of 0.3% growth; however, the year-over-year increase of 4.7% was unchanged from September. While the report showed some signs of a slowing labor market, it appeared unlikely to alter the Fed's aggressive rate hike plans. The Dow rose 0.1%, the S&P was flat, and the Nasdaq fell 0.3%. Crude oil rose more than $3 to $91.50 per barrel, while gold jumped $43 to $1674 per ounce.

Stocks fell sharply in 3Q 2022, with the S&P 500 down more than 5.2% for the period after a 9% decline in September. Year to date, the index is down 25% and in a bear market. Growth stocks have again been the weakest performers, as sectors such as Technology, Communication Services, and Consumer Discretionary have all lagged the major market indices. The leading sectors were value-oriented, including Utilities, Energy, and Consumer Staples. The average stock in the Argus Universe of Coverage declined 5.6% during the quarter, and the median stock declined 6.9%. The average BUY-rated stock dropped 5.0%, while the average HOLD-rated stock fell 7.1%. Will investors continue to favor value in 4Q22? Will high inflation drive continued outperformance in Energy? Given interest rates that are on the rise, we are thinking 2022 may be the one-in-five years that value leads growth for the full year. Investors seeking value are encouraged to focus on dividends and look for yields in the 3%-4% range. Regarding sectors, our current Over-Weights are Energy, Healthcare, Industrials, and Materials.

The FOMC raised the federal funds rate by 75 basis points (bps) on Wednesday, reaching a target rate of 3.00%-3.25%. That's the highest level since early 2008. The Fed also increased its year-end rate target to 4.4% from 3.4% after the June meeting. As usual, the stock market didn't know what to make of the hike and forecast, with the S&P 500 first falling 68 points, then soaring 88 points, and then plunging 118 points to finish at the lows of the day. The S&P 500 gave up 1.7% and closed at its lowest level since June 22. The Nasdaq and the QQQs both lost 1.8%.

The stock market got clocked on Thursday, but at least it wasn't as bad as Tuesday. Support from the recent lows held by a whisker for the indices. The S&P 500 shed 1.1% and closed right at the recent low of 3,900. The Nasdaq gave up 1.4% and finished close to its recent low, while the QQQs lost 1.7% and closed just below the low from September 6. For the week (so far), the "500" has lost 4.1%, the Nasdaq has given up 4.6%, and the QQQs have returned 5.2%.

In August, the stock market was doing just fine until the middle of the month -- when the S&P 500 tagged the underside of its 200-day moving average. At that point, the risk-on switch was turned off quickly and the risk-off switch was thrown on again. While the losses were not large, it was disappointing for perma-bulls as well as any bears that recently threw in the towel. Ouch! Believe us, when the market makes such a big move against the intermediate- to longer-term trend, it's tough to hold ground.

Monday Tee-Up: No Summer Doldrums on Wall Street

Scenarios for the Second Half and Beyond

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Mid Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. The market capitalization range for U.S. mid-caps typically falls between $1 billion and $8 billion and represents 20% of the total capitalization of the U.S. equity market.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Mid Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. The market capitalization range for U.S. mid-caps typically falls between $1 billion and $8 billion and represents 20% of the total capitalization of the U.S. equity market.

Stocks fell again on Friday morning, adding to Thursday's massive losses, amid growing concerns about the Fed's ability to control inflation, along with the uncertain impact of the war in Ukraine and economic weakness in China. On the employment front, the Labor Department said that the U.S. economy added 428,000 payroll jobs in April, in line with the revised reading for March and above the Bloomberg consensus forecast of 380,000. The unemployment rate held steady at 3.6%, just above the consensus forecast of 3.5%. The Dow fell 0.7%, the S&P 0.7%, and the Nasdaq 0.9%. Crude oil rose to $110.50 per barrel, while gold traded near $1891 per ounce.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Mid Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. The market capitalization range for U.S. mid-caps typically falls between $1 billion and $8 billion and represents 20% of the total capitalization of the U.S. equity market.

Stocks stumbled early in 2022. Growth stocks were the weakest, as Technology, Communication Services, and Consumer Discretionary underperformed. Leading sectors tended to be value-oriented, including Energy, Financial, and Utilities. The average stock in the Argus universe declined 2% in 1Q22, and the median stock declined 4%. The average BUY-rated stock dropped 3.2%, while the average HOLD-rated stock gained 1.4%. Will investors continue to favor value? Will high inflation drive continued outperformance in Energy and Materials? Given interest rates that remain historically low, we expect growth stocks to outperform over time and believe that 2022 simply may be the one-in-five years that value leads. Investors seeking value are encouraged to focus on dividends and yields in the 3%-4% range. Our current Over-weights sectors are Energy, Financial, Healthcare, Industrials, and Materials.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Mid Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. The market capitalization range for U.S. mid-caps typically falls between $1 billion and $8 billion and represents 20% of the total capitalization of the U.S. equity market.

Stocks fell on Thursday morning after giving up early gains as investors continued to watch developments in Ukraine. Service sector data was weaker than expected. The Institute for Supply Management said that its U.S. services index fell to 56.5 in February, down from 59.9 in January. The above-50 reading still indicated expansion, but was below the Bloomberg consensus forecast of 61.1. The Dow fell 0.4%, the S&P 0.6%, and the Nasdaq 1.1%. Crude oil traded near $110 per barrel, while gold rose $7 to $1929 per ounce.

This edition features top pick APA Group, Alibaba's attractive share price, Brambles' hardiness in challenging conditions, and TransUnion, Etsy, and Nabtesco.

Etsy operates a top-10 e-commerce marketplace platform in the U.S. and the U.K., with sizable operations in France, Germany, Australia, and Canada. The firm dominates an interesting niche, connecting buyers and sellers through its online market to exchange vintage and craft goods. With $10.3 billion in 2020 gross merchandise volume, the firm has cemented itself as one of the largest players in a quickly growing space, generating revenue from listing fees, commissions on sold items, advertising services, payment processing, and shipping labels. As of the third quarter of 2021, the firm connected more than 96 million buyers and more than 7.5 million sellers on its marketplace properties: Etsy, Reverb (musical equipment), Elo7 (crafts in Brazil), and Depop (clothing resale).

Stocks rallied on Friday morning following a strong October employment report. The Labor Department said that the U.S. economy added 531,000 payroll jobs last month, up from a revised 312,000 in September and above the Reuters consensus forecast of 450,000. The official unemployment rate fell to 4.6% from 4.8% in September. The Dow rose 0.9%, the S&P 0.7%, and the Nasdaq 0.6%. Crude oil traded near $79.50 per barrel, while gold rose $8 to $1802 per ounce.

What happened to the September sell-off? A month ago, the S&P 500 was in the process of falling off all-time highs (ATHs) set early in September. From the ATH of 4,537 on 9/2/21, the '500' fell to the 4,350s on 9/21/21; staged what would be a failed rally to just under 4,450 on 9/24/21; and then made twin lows right around 4,300 on 9/30/21 and 10/4/21.