Fastenal Company (FAST) stock forecast and price target

Longer-term measures of market breadth clearly have improved following strong price and breadth thrusts since the October 27 stock market low. If this is truly an extension of the bull market that started in October 2022, we need to see more progress. With 25% of the S&P 500 (SPX) weighting coming from just seven stocks, and the total Technology sector weighting of the SPX near 30% (yes, we have been here before), contributions from other areas of the market "might" be critical. If the can't-miss mega-cap AI stocks stumble or AI simply does not live up to very high expectations, the stock market likely will feel some pain.

Last week was the second consecutive bad week for stocks, the third good week for gold, and the second strong week for Bitcoin. The S&P 500 (SPX) lost 2.5%, the Nasdaq and the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) fell 2.6%, the S&P MidCap 400 (MDY) declined 2.8%, and the Russell 2000 (IWM) was off 2.5%. Over the past two weeks, the five indices have fallen between 4.7% and 5.7%. Over the past 13 weeks, the SPX and Nasdaq have fallen in nine weeks, the QQQs eight, the MDY 10, and the IWM 11. Over the past 13 weeks, the SPX and QQQs are down 10%, the Nasdaq is off 12%, the MDY has dropped 14%, and the IWM has given up 17%.

In this edition, WestRock's restructuring causes some ripples; Nike faces headwinds but walks on air; industrial distributors poised to benefit; and Eastman Chemical, Ubisoft, and General Mills.

By one popular definition, the stock market began a new bull market in June after the S&P 500 rose 20% from its bear-market lows set in October 2022. However, there's another theory that says a bear market doesn't end until stocks reclaim all-time highs. Under that definition, the S&P 500 still needs to climb about another 430 points to surpass the 4796 level. The bull scenario certainly seemed reasonable through July, as the S&P 500 was surging 28% from its prior depths. But in August and September, doubts were raised as stocks tumbled 8% (though they have since reclaimed 3% of that lost ground). By our thinking, stocks remain in the early stages of a bull market, though volatility is an issue due to geopolitical developments, high interest rates, and the risk of recession. On the positive side, we anticipate that the U.S. economy will steer clear of recession into 2025, the Federal Reserve will start to lower interest rates in 2024, and earnings growth is poised to return in 2H23. The VIX Volatility Index is currently sending a more-optimistic signal. The current fear index reading is around 18, which is below the 15-year average of 20.5 and signals that investors aren't overly worried about the outlook. These readings compare to the average VIX of 24 during the most-recent bear market and 35 during the financial crisis of 2008-2009. During the long bull market in the 2010s, the VIX averaged 18 and even touched lows below 10 in 2017.

Stocks gave up early gains on Friday morning following the first 3Q earnings reports from major banks. JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup all rose after posting stronger-than-expected results. UnitedHealth also reported strong 3Q earnings, helped by lower-than-projected medical costs, and raised its full-year EPS guidance. Meanwhile, Microsoft completed its acquisition of videogame maker Activision after receiving approval from UK regulators. The Dow rose 0.1%, the S&P fell 0.3%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.8%. Crude oil rose more than 3% to $86 per barrel, while gold rose $50 to $1933 per ounce.

Stocks gave up early gains on Friday morning following the first 3Q earnings reports from major banks. JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup all rose after posting stronger-than-expected results. UnitedHealth also reported strong 3Q earnings, helped by lower-than-projected medical costs, and raised its full-year EPS guidance. Meanwhile, Microsoft completed its acquisition of videogame maker Activision after receiving approval from UK regulators. The Dow rose 0.1%, the S&P fell 0.3%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.8%. Crude oil rose more than 3% to $86 per barrel, while gold rose $50 to $1933 per ounce.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

Monday Tee Up: Earnings and an Eye on Next Week

Our list this week identifies companies that received an Argus target-price increase in April. As the stock prices of these companies approached their target prices, Argus analysts saw those prices going even higher. We are in the thick of earnings season and our analysts are scouring quarterly reports to evaluate how the companies they follow are doing. With economists busy analyzing economic data to determine whether the economy might slip into recession, companies have been attending to their businesses. Some are weathering current economic conditions better than others. The economic pressures are real - including rising interest rates, inflation, the strong dollar, and wavering consumer spending patterns. These stressors are on top of normal competitive pressures, as companies fight to sell their products and services, outmaneuver peers, and make profits. Looking back at April, our analysts found companies where the business outlook is solid - and went through the mechanics of our valuation framework to adjust target prices upwards. Our framework includes analysis of historical multiples, peer multiples, and future dividends and cash flows. Here are the stocks on which we raised target prices in April. All are rated BUY at Argus.

During earnings season, analysts focus on earnings growth - but also on the quality of the earnings that companies are generating. There are three drivers to EPS growth: higher sales, wider margins, and lower shares outstanding. The reduction in shares outstanding, caused by corporate share buybacks, is the lowest-quality driver of EPS growth. Higher sales -- as customers demand and pay for more products and services -- is the highest quality. Margin management is in the middle. Consistently wider margins often are a sign of good management, as revenues grow faster than costs. But that's a tall order in periods of high inflation (which raises the cost of goods sold) and rising interest rates (which result in higher financing costs). What's more, there's a cap to margins, as they don't rise indefinitely. Indeed, this is one of those statistics for which the concept of a "reversion to the mean" is relevant. Last year, operating margins for S&P 500 companies averaged 11.9%. That was high, but down from a 15-year peak of 13.3% in 2021 and in comparison to the long run average of 9.3%. It is a fair bet that margins will be under pressure in coming quarters due to inflation and high rates. Investors will have to rely on revenue growth and share buybacks to drive EPS growth during this period. We think the year will end with a low-single-digit growth rate for S&P 500 earnings.

Stocks fell on Friday morning following the first round of earnings reports from major banks and new retail sales data. JPMorgan shares rose 7% after the company posted a 52% year-over-year increase in first-quarter earnings, helped by strong net interest income. Citigroup also rose following better-than-expected results, while Wells Fargo shares were flat. The Commerce Department reported that U.S. retail sales fell 1.0% in March after a 0.2% decline in February. The Reuters consensus forecast had called for a smaller decline of 0.4%. The Dow fell 0.5%, the S&P 0.3%, and the Nasdaq 0.4%. Crude oil rose to $83 per barrel, while gold dropped $42 to $2013 per ounce.

Last week, we wrote 'volatility in stocks remains the order of the day -- and that same volatility remains evident in the short-term insider-sentiment data from Vickers Stock Research.' We also noted that the volume of insider-transactions is very low and therefore less meaningful, with earnings season in full swing and insiders broadly prohibited from trading. All that remains true this week.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

During earnings season, analysts focus not just on earnings growth, but also on the quality of the earnings that companies report they are generating. There are three drivers to EPS growth: higher sales, wider margins, and a lower number of shares outstanding. The reduction in shares outstanding, which is caused by corporate share buybacks, is the lowest-quality driver of EPS growth. Higher sales -- as customers demand and pay for more products and services -- is the highest quality. Margin management is in the middle. Consistently wider margins are often a sign of good management teams, with leaders who are able to grow revenues faster than they are growing costs. That's particularly difficult in periods of high inflation (which raises the cost of goods sold) and times of rising interest rates (which result in higher financing costs). But there's a cap to margins and they don't rise indefinitely. Last year, operating margins for S&P 500 companies averaged 13.3%. That's a 15-year high and compares to the long-term average of 9.2%. It is a fair bet that margins will be under pressure in coming quarters due to inflation and high interest rates. Investors will have to rely on revenue growth and share buybacks to drive EPS growth during this period.

Stocks recovered from early losses on Thursday, rallying strongly despite disappointing inflation data. The 6.6% increase in the core consumer price index, excluding food and energy, marked a 40-year high and set the stage for another 75-basis-point rate hike at the Fed's next meeting. On the employment front, first-time claims for state unemployment benefits rose by 9,000 to 228,000 for the week ended October 8, slightly above the Reuters consensus estimate. The Dow rose 2.83%, the S&P 2.60%, and the Nasdaq 2.23%. Crude oil rose more than 2% to $89 per barrel, while gold fell $4 to $1673 per ounce.

Stocks pared sharp early losses on Thursday afternoon but still finished mainly in negative territory. Investors weighed disappointing earnings from JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley and comments from Fed officials that suggested a possible 100-basis-point increase in interest rates at the July FOMC meeting. On the employment front, first-time claims for state unemployment benefits rose to 244,000 for the week ended July 9, up from 235,000 a week earlier and above the Bloomberg consensus estimate. The Dow fell 0.46%, the S&P fell 0.30%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.03%. Crude oil rose slightly to $96.50 per barrel, while gold dropped $27 to $1708 per ounce.

As we start the second half of 2022, we remain disciplined by looking at stocks and sectors in which we have confidence. Stocks took a beating in the first half, and at times like this, investing principles are critical. We focus on fundamentals, diverse portfolios, strong managements, and growth stocks trading at reasonable prices. This week we look at Industrials, having examined Basic Materials last week. These are perhaps the two least flashy sectors -- and while Basic Materials and Industrials may seem boring, we don't consider the stocks on this week's list to be dull. The companies we've selected within Industrials have solid fundamentals and growth outlooks. Challenges in the supply chain persist, but have eased, and the U.S. trade deficit signaled some shifting in the last report. Exports rose 1.2% in May to $255 billion. This is a great opportunity for U.S. companies, as international buyers look towards American products. The Industrials sector accounts for 8% of the S&P 500, and includes industries such as aerospace and defense, construction and building products, heavy equipment and machinery, and transportation. Over the past five years, the sector weighting has ranged from 7% to 12%. We think investors should Over-Weight the sector and consider allocating about 8% of their diversified portfolios to stocks in the group. The sector is slightly outperforming the S&P 500 thus far in 2022, with a loss of 16.5% compared to the S&P's loss of 18%. The following are some of our BUY-rated Industrials companies, all of which are rated BUY, have a Financial Strength rating of Medium-High or higher, and pay a dividend. We feel these companies are best in class for the sector.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

Stocks swung between gains and losses on Monday morning as investors awaited earnings from a range of major companies. Bank of America rose more than 3% after posting stronger-than-expected first-quarter earnings, helped by growth in consumer lending. However, earnings were still down 13% from the prior year. The Dow fell 0.2%, the S&P 0.2%, and the Nasdaq 0.4%. Crude oil rose 1% to $108 per barrel, while gold traded near $1991 per ounce.

Stocks rebounded on Thursday morning following positive earnings reports from Travelers and Baker Hughes, a day after the Nasdaq dropped into correction territory. On the employment front, the Labor Department said that first-time claims for state unemployment benefits rose to 286,000 for the week ended January 15, up from 231,000 a week earlier and above the consensus forecast of 225,000. The Dow rose 1.2%, the S&P 1.3%, and the Nasdaq 1.8%. Crude oil rose to near $88 per barrel, while gold fell $3 to $1840 per ounce.

Often overlooked amid gyrations in the stock market is dividend income, which is an important element of total return. Between 1930 and 2012, dividend income accounted for 42% of total return of the S&P 500, according to Hartford Funds. And that's just the average. In some decades, dividends accounted for more than 50% of total returns and even 100% of returns. More recently, dividends have accounted for 15%-20% of returns. Still, in 2018, dividend payments softened the blow when most market indices declined as the Federal Reserve hiked rates. But not all dividends are created equal, though, and it is important to understand the difference between the two main categories: high-yield stocks and dividend-growth stocks.

For a moment, September seemed like a worst nightmare for investors. Yet the further we get from September, that month's selloff barely qualifies as a bad thought. The stock market followed up its strong October with a positive pair of winning sessions to start November. Earnings continue to outperform expectations, and the VIX keeps working lower as fear drains from the market.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

October is off to a rocky start. Investors took a disappointing jobs number as well as could be expected. While the absolute number of jobs gained was well under expectations, some economists believe the seasonal adjustment (related to limited return to classrooms in fall 2020) may have skewed the data, and that without adjustments the job tally would have been higher.

Stocks kept momentum going in July and August. Our analysts have been progressing through earnings season and have come across many stocks that have approached target prices. We set targets through our valuation framework, which includes analysis of historical multiples, peer multiples, and future dividends and cash flows. After adjusting for the latest information, here are some of the stocks on which we raised target prices over the past month. All of the following stocks are rated BUY at Argus.

Stocks fell sharply on Monday morning amid concerns about a resurgence of coronavirus cases as the Delta variant gained traction. New cases rose 70% last week in the U.S., and continued to soar in many parts of Europe and Asia. On the housing front, the National Association of Home Builders said that its builder confidence index fell to 80 in July from 81 in June and missed the Reuters consensus forecast of 82. The Dow fell 2.2%, the S&P 1.8%, and the Nasdaq 1.4%. Crude oil traded near $67 per barrel, while gold fell slightly to $1815 per ounce.

Insider sentiment, as viewed using weekly data supplied by Vickers Stock Research, remains stubbornly cautious -- as it has for almost all of 2021. With the DJIA, S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite all up over 8% for the year-to-date, it might be easy to believe that corporate insiders have it wrong. Yet at the COVID-19 low back in March of 2020, the DJIA closed at 19,173 and insiders jumped in and bought shares at a record-setting pace. A year later, when insiders started to show caution, the Dow was at 32,778 and had clawed higher by about 70%. So while the DJIA has tacked on a few percentage points since then, no one can claim that insiders missed the pandemic bottom and most of the huge gains logged since then. And with recent inflation-driven volatility, it seems clear that stocks are susceptible to wild moves on the first signs of worrisome news. Vickers' NYSE/ASE Eight-Week Sell/Buy Ratio remains cautious at 4.98, with any reading over 2.50 being negative. So yes, insiders are cautious -- just as they typically are when all-time highs are a part of the daily conversation.

Often overlooked amid gyrations in the stock market is dividend income, which is an important element of total return. Between 1930 and 2012, dividend income accounted for 42% of total return of the S&P 500, according to Hartford Funds. And that's just the average. In some decades, dividends accounted for more than 50% of total returns and even 100% of returns. More recently, dividends have accounted for 15%-20% of returns. Still, in 2018, dividend payments softened the blow when most market indices declined as the Federal Reserve hiked rates. Not all dividends are created equal, though, and it is important to understand the difference between the two main categories: high-yield stocks and dividend-growth stocks.

The Vickers Top Insider Picks is a daily report that utilizes a proprietary algorithm to identify 25 companies with compelling insider purchase histories based on transactions over the past three months.

The Vickers Top Insider Picks is a daily report that utilizes a proprietary algorithm to identify 25 companies with compelling insider purchase histories based on transactions over the past three months.

The Vickers Top Insider Picks is a daily report that utilizes a proprietary algorithm to identify 25 companies with compelling insider purchase histories based on transactions over the past three months.

The Vickers Top Insider Picks is a daily report that utilizes a proprietary algorithm to identify 25 companies with compelling insider purchase histories based on transactions over the past three months.

The Vickers Top Insider Picks is a daily report that utilizes a proprietary algorithm to identify 25 companies with compelling insider purchase histories based on transactions over the past three months.

The Vickers Top Insider Picks is a daily report that utilizes a proprietary algorithm to identify 25 companies with compelling insider purchase histories based on transactions over the past three months.

The Vickers Top Insider Picks is a daily report that utilizes a proprietary algorithm to identify 25 companies with compelling insider purchase histories based on transactions over the past three months.

Stocks fell for a second day on Tuesday morning, led by sharp declines in the Financial and Energy sectors. IBM shares rose more than 4% following stronger-than-expected first-quarter sales and earnings, helped by strength in the company's cloud computing business. On the negative side, Abbott Laboratories fell sharply after reporting slightly lower than expected sales, including a sequential decline in revenue from coronavirus test kits. The Dow fell 0.9%, the S&P 0.9%, and the Nasdaq 1.1%. Crude oil traded near $62 per barrel, while gold rose $9 to $1780 per ounce.

The Vickers Top Insider Picks is a daily report that utilizes a proprietary algorithm to identify 25 companies with compelling insider purchase histories based on transactions over the past three months.

The Vickers Top Insider Picks is a daily report that utilizes a proprietary algorithm to identify 25 companies with compelling insider purchase histories based on transactions over the past three months.

The Vickers Top Insider Picks is a daily report that utilizes a proprietary algorithm to identify 25 companies with compelling insider purchase histories based on transactions over the past three months.

The Vickers Top Insider Picks is a daily report that utilizes a proprietary algorithm to identify 25 companies with compelling insider purchase histories based on transactions over the past three months.

The Vickers Top Insider Picks is a daily report that utilizes a proprietary algorithm to identify 25 companies with compelling insider purchase histories based on transactions over the past three months.

The Vickers Top Insider Picks is a daily report that utilizes a proprietary algorithm to identify 25 companies with compelling insider purchase histories based on transactions over the past three months.

The Vickers Top Insider Picks is a daily report that utilizes a proprietary algorithm to identify 25 companies with compelling insider purchase histories based on transactions over the past three months.

The Vickers Top Insider Picks is a daily report that utilizes a proprietary algorithm to identify 25 companies with compelling insider purchase histories based on transactions over the past three months.

The Vickers Top Insider Picks is a daily report that utilizes a proprietary algorithm to identify 25 companies with compelling insider purchase histories based on transactions over the past three months.

The Vickers Top Insider Picks is a daily report that utilizes a proprietary algorithm to identify 25 companies with compelling insider purchase histories based on transactions over the past three months.

The Vickers Top Insider Picks is a daily report that utilizes a proprietary algorithm to identify 25 companies with compelling insider purchase histories based on transactions over the past three months.

The Vickers Top Insider Picks is a daily report that utilizes a proprietary algorithm to identify 25 companies with compelling insider purchase histories based on transactions over the past three months.

The Vickers Top Insider Picks is a daily report that utilizes a proprietary algorithm to identify 25 companies with compelling insider purchase histories based on transactions over the past three months.

The Vickers Top Insider Picks is a daily report that utilizes a proprietary algorithm to identify 25 companies with compelling insider purchase histories based on transactions over the past three months.

The Vickers Top Insider Picks is a daily report that utilizes a proprietary algorithm to identify 25 companies with compelling insider purchase histories based on transactions over the past three months.

The Vickers Top Insider Picks is a daily report that utilizes a proprietary algorithm to identify 25 companies with compelling insider purchase histories based on transactions over the past three months.

The Vickers Top Insider Picks is a daily report that utilizes a proprietary algorithm to identify 25 companies with compelling insider purchase histories based on transactions over the past three months.

The Vickers Top Insider Picks is a daily report that utilizes a proprietary algorithm to identify 25 companies with compelling insider purchase histories based on transactions over the past three months.

The Vickers Top Insider Picks is a daily report that utilizes a proprietary algorithm to identify 25 companies with compelling insider purchase histories based on transactions over the past three months.

The Vickers Top Insider Picks is a daily report that utilizes a proprietary algorithm to identify 25 companies with compelling insider purchase histories based on transactions over the past three months.

The Vickers Top Insider Picks is a daily report that utilizes a proprietary algorithm to identify 25 companies with compelling insider purchase histories based on transactions over the past three months.

The Vickers Top Insider Picks is a daily report that utilizes a proprietary algorithm to identify 25 companies with compelling insider purchase histories based on transactions over the past three months.

The Vickers Top Insider Picks is a daily report that utilizes a proprietary algorithm to identify 25 companies with compelling insider purchase histories based on transactions over the past three months.

The Vickers Top Insider Picks is a daily report that utilizes a proprietary algorithm to identify 25 companies with compelling insider purchase histories based on transactions over the past three months.

The Vickers Top Insider Picks is a daily report that utilizes a proprietary algorithm to identify 25 companies with compelling insider purchase histories based on transactions over the past three months.

The Vickers Top Insider Picks is a daily report that utilizes a proprietary algorithm to identify 25 companies with compelling insider purchase histories based on transactions over the past three months.

The Vickers Top Insider Picks is a daily report that utilizes a proprietary algorithm to identify 25 companies with compelling insider purchase histories based on transactions over the past three months.

The Vickers Top Insider Picks is a daily report that utilizes a proprietary algorithm to identify 25 companies with compelling insider purchase histories based on transactions over the past three months.

The Vickers Top Insider Picks is a daily report that utilizes a proprietary algorithm to identify 25 companies with compelling insider purchase histories based on transactions over the past three months.