U.S. markets were mixed on Friday morning, but are still on track for gains for the week. On the earnings front, FedEx (FDX) rose 7% on an earnings beat, while Nike (NKE) was down about 7% on a weak outlook. The Dow was down 0.5%, the S&P 500 fell 0.1% and the Nasdaq gained less than 0.1%. Crude oil traded above $80 per barrel, while gold fell $16 to $2169 per ounce.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

10 Investment Themes for 2024

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

Our analysis of data that has been reported in recent weeks leads us to conclude that key parts of U.S. GDP are still expanding, despite the impact of inflation, high interest rates, and geopolitical developments. That said, growth is not consistent across all segments of the economy, and, in some cases, growth rates are slowing. While the Fed is on track to engineer a soft landing for the economy, recession in 2023-2034 remains a possibility, though we think that the odds are diminishing. After reviewing the latest economic data points, metrics, and trends, our forecast for GDP growth in 4Q23 is now 2.0%, a pronounced decline from the 3Q level. Our estimate for the full year 2023 is now 2.8%, up from our prior forecast of 2.3% due to the blowout 3Q report. Our preliminary forecast for GDP growth in 2024 is 1.8%, as the Federal Reserve, with its tool chest again full after hiking rates during 1H23, can contemplate lowering interest rates to recharge economic growth. Our estimates generally are in the range with other forecasters, though perhaps a bit higher than the consensus. The Wall Street Journal Economic Survey calls for GDP growth of 2.2% in 2023 and 1.0% in 2024. The Federal Reserve is now anticipating GDP growth of 2.1% for 2023 and 1.5% in 2024. The Philadelphia Federal Reserve's Survey of Professional Forecasters is calling for growth of 2.1% in 2023 and 1.3% in 2024. A recent GDPNow forecast from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta was 2.3% for 4Q23.

Eli Lilly & Co. is a large-cap pharmaceutical company. It develops and manufactures therapies to treat pain, diabetes, cancer, and neurodegenerative diseases. Its newest blockbuster is Mounjaro, for diabetes and potentially for weight-loss. LLY has been a very good stock since 2019. For the most part, long-term support has come from the 50-day simple average. The stock has shown relative strength against both the S&P 500 and the peer group, represented by the ETF IYH, over the trailing three-month, one-year and five-year periods. The LLY shares are also in a bullish pattern of higher highs and higher lows that dates back to October of 2019. We would put a stop-loss just under chart support at $550. We would take profits at $620, with the potential for greater long-term gains. +

Stocks were mixed on Monday morning amid continued interest rate concerns. Investors also looked ahead to new inflation data on Friday, and to a possible government shutdown next week. Hollywood screenwriters reportedly reached a deal with the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers, potentially ending their five-month strike. However, with actors still on strike, the near-term impact on the entertainment industry will be limited. The Dow fell 0.3%, the S&P was flat, and the Nasdaq rose 0.1%. Crude oil fell 1% to $89 per barrel while gold traded near $1936 per ounce.

Monday Tee Up: Inflation and GDP

Vickers Stock Research, a subsidiary of Argus Research Group, tracks and analyzes insider trading and institutional stock ownership trends. Form 13-Fs, which institutions must file to report their holdings, are due 45 days after the end of calendar quarters, and have now come in from 1Q23. We review the 13Fs of the major activist investors, including Carl Icahn, Trian Fund Management, Jana Partners and ValueAct Holdings, among others, in order to determine their core holdings and new purchases. Activist investing has evolved in recent years and is now less about generating a short-term return on an underpriced stock and more about achieving long-term returns through an active management/investor partnership. Activists have made progress in the past year with high-profile investments into blue-chip companies such as FedEx Inc. and Union Pacific. Based on Vickers data, here are some recent new purchases and key holdings of Activist investors, as well as other high-profile money managers such as Warren Buffet of Berkshire Hathaway and Ken Griffin of Citadel Advisors LLC.

Our analysis of recent data leads us to conclude that key parts of U.S. GDP are still expanding, despite the impact of higher interest rates, inflation, the pandemic, and geopolitical developments. That said, growth is not consistent across all segments of the economy and, in many cases, growth rates are slowing. The risk of a U.S. recession is real -- but is not a foregone conclusion. We look for uneven growth in 2023, with the high possibility of a negative quarter or two. After reviewing the latest economic fundamentals, we have raised our 2Q23 GDP estimate to 2.5% from our prior forecast of 0.6%. We anticipate that the second quarter could be the strongest quarter of the year, before the higher rates dampen consumer spending in the second half. Our estimate for the 2023 remains 1.4%. Our preliminary forecast for GDP growth in 2024 remains 1.7%, as the Federal Reserve, with its tool chest once again full after hiking rates during 1H23, can contemplate lowering interest rates to recharge economic growth. Our estimates are in the range with other forecasters, though perhaps a bit higher than the consensus. The Wall Street Journal Economic Survey calls for GDP growth of 0.5% in 2023 and 1.6% in 2024. The Federal Reserve is anticipating GDP growth of 0.4% for 2023, and for growth of 1.2% in 2024. Meanwhile, the IMF is calling for 2023 growth of 1.6%, and the Philadelphia Federal Reserve's Survey of Professional Forecasters is calling for growth of 1.3% in 2023 and 1.4% in 2024. The GDPNow Forecast from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta is 1.7% for 2Q23.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

For over a month, insider sentiment as reported by Vickers Stock Research has been bearish - becoming particularly so at the end of February. During the time of the alarming sentiment, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by more than 6% as a seemingly non-ending list of events spooked investors. But is enough now enough? This week, insider-sentiment data from Vickers suggests that insiders finally may believe that stock prices adequately reflect the current challenges and that a bottom may be near (or may be in). Vickers' legacy NYSE/ASE One-Week Sell/Buy Ratio this week is 1.39. That is on a scale where anything below 2.00 is bullish and anything above 2.50 is bearish. This same ratio was 5.37 last week and 10.10 a month ago. The Total One-Week Sell/Buy Ratio this week is 1.26. It was 3.90 last week and 6.23 a month ago. On an exchange basis, the NYSE one-week ratio is now 1.40 compared to 5.73 last week and 12.76 a month ago. For the Nasdaq, the current ratio is 1.20 compared to 3.21 last week and 5.95 a month ago. One week does not make a trend, but Vickers' data this week is undeniably bullish.

For over a month, we have used this space to alert readers to deteriorating sentiment among corporate insiders (from weakening to jaw-droppingly awful). During the time we have commented on the alarming sentiment, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has fallen more than 6% and a seemingly non-ending list of events has spooked investors. But is enough now enough?

Global economic growth is expected to slide in 2023 before turning higher in 2024, according to the latest World Economic Outlook from the International Monetary Fund. The pick-up in 2024 is attributed largely to the expected economic impact of China's recent reopening, offset by the ongoing war in Ukraine and higher interest rates across the globe. By the numbers, the world economy is expected to expand 2.9% in 2023, after having grown 3.4% in 2022. In 2024, growth is expected to accelerate to 3.1%. All of these rates are below the long-term historical global growth rate of 3.8%, largely due to the impact of inflation and higher interest rates. For industrialized economies (the U.S., Europe, Japan, etc.) growth is forecast at a miniscule 1.2% in 2023 and 1.4% in 2024. The U.S. is expected to outperform in 2023 but lag in 2024. For emerging economies (China, India, Russia, Brazil, Saudi Arabia, etc.), growth forecasts call for 4.0% in 2023 and 4.2% in 2024. The clear leaders are expected to be China and India, with average growth for the two years of 4.8% and 6.4%, respectively. Even these growth nations have different drivers: population growth in India and productivity growth in China, as GDP/capita increases. We factor these global growth forecasts into our asset-allocation models. Based in part on the slow global growth rates, we continue to recommend that investors over-weight portfolios toward U.S.-based securities. Generally, global stocks represent value, but the risks to growth are high.

Global economic growth is expected to slide in 2023 before turning higher in 2024, according to the latest World Economic Outlook from the International Monetary Fund. The potential pick-up in 2024 is attributed largely to the expected economic impact of China's recent reopening, offset by the ongoing war in Ukraine, and higher interest rates across the globe. By the numbers, the World Economy is expected to expand 2.9% in 2023, after having grown 3.4% in 2022. In 2024, growth is expected to accelerate to 3.1%. All of these rates are below the long-term historical global growth rate of 3.8%, due largely to the impact of inflation and higher interest rates. For industrialized economies (the U.S., Europe, Japan, etc.) growth is forecast for a miniscule 1.2% in 2023 and 1.4% in 2024. The U.S. is expected to outperform in 2023 but lag in 2024. For emerging economies (China, India, Russia, Brazil, Saudi Arabia, etc.), growth forecasts call for 4.0% in 2023 and 4.2% in 2024. The clear leaders are expected to be China and India, with average growth for the two years of 4.8% and 6.4%, respectively. Even these growth nations have different drivers: population growth in India and productivity growth in China, as GDP/capita increases. We factor these global growth forecasts into our asset-allocation models. Based in part on the slow global growth rates, we continue to recommend that investors over-weight portfolios toward U.S.-based securities. Global stocks generally represent value, but the risks to growth are high.

Our analysis of data reported in recent weeks indicates that key parts of U.S. GDP are still expanding, despite the impact of inflation, the pandemic, and geopolitical developments. That said, growth is not consistent across all segments of the economy, and, in many cases, growth rates are slowing. The risk of recession is real. After reviewing the latest economic fundamentals, we are maintaining our forecast for full-year GDP growth of 0.7% in 2022. In 2023, we look for the first quarter to start off at a negative rate, but then for the economy to improve as the year progresses. Our 2023 GDP growth estimate is now 1.1%, down from our prior forecast of 1.3%. The Federal Reserve is combating inflation with aggressive interest rate hikes. Our concern is that it is raising rates too quickly and will send the U.S. economy into recession this year. Our initial forecast for GDP growth in 2024 is 1.8%, as the Fed, with its tool chest again full, can contemplate lowering rates to recharge economic growth. Our GDP estimates are generally in the range of other forecasters. The Federal Reserve now projects GDP growth of 0.5% for 2022 and 2023, and then looks for stronger growth of 1.6% in 2024. Meanwhile, the IMF is calling for growth of 1.6% in 2022 and 1.0% in 2023. The Philadelphia Federal Reserve's Survey of Professional Forecasters is calling for growth of 1.6% in 2022 and 1.3% in 2023. The GDPNow Forecast from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta is 3.7% for 4Q22.

Stocks fell sharply on Thursday even after paring losses in late trading. The selloff was driven in part by an upward revision in third-quarter GDP, which raised prospects for continued aggressive Fed rate hikes. Investors also weighed a weak earnings report and disappointing guidance from Micron Technology, and weekly employment data. The Labor Department said that first-time claims for state unemployment benefits rose by 2,000 to 216,000 for the week ended December 17, below the Reuters consensus of 222,000. The Dow fell 1.05%, the S&P 1.45%, and the Nasdaq 2.18%. Crude oil traded near $78 per barrel, while gold fell to $1801 per ounce.

Stocks fell sharply in 3Q 2022, with the S&P 500 down more than 5.2% for the period after a 9% decline in September. Year to date, the index is down 25% and in a bear market. Growth stocks have again been the weakest performers, as sectors such as Technology, Communication Services, and Consumer Discretionary have all lagged the major market indices. The leading sectors were value-oriented, including Utilities, Energy, and Consumer Staples. The average stock in the Argus Universe of Coverage declined 5.6% during the quarter, and the median stock declined 6.9%. The average BUY-rated stock dropped 5.0%, while the average HOLD-rated stock fell 7.1%. Will investors continue to favor value in 4Q22? Will high inflation drive continued outperformance in Energy? Given interest rates that are on the rise, we are thinking 2022 may be the one-in-five years that value leads growth for the full year. Investors seeking value are encouraged to focus on dividends and look for yields in the 3%-4% range. Regarding sectors, our current Over-Weights are Energy, Healthcare, Industrials, and Materials.

The Fed Speaks, and the Stock Market Goes Lower

In this edition, Putting Chips on Chipmaker ASML, Okta's Core Is Strong, Adobe's Acquisition, and Roblox, National Instruments, and FedEx

Vickers Stock Research, a subsidiary of Argus Research Group, tracks and analyzes trends in insider trading and institutional ownership. Form 13Fs are due 45 days after the end of calendar quarters and have now come in from 2Q22. We like to review the 13Fs of the major activist investors, including Carl Icahn, Trian Fund Management, Jana Partners, and ValueAct Holdings, among others, in order to determine their core holdings and new purchases. Activist investing has evolved in recent years and is now less about generating a short-term return on an underpriced stock and more about achieving long-term returns through an active management/investor partnership. Here are some recent new purchases and key holdings of Activist investors, according to Vickers.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

The growth rate of U.S. GDP fell sharply in 1Q22, to an annualized -1.5%, well below the 6.9% rate recorded in 4Q21. Is the U.S. economy about to string together two negative quarters, which is the technical definition of a recession? We are not ready to go there (yet). There were several pockets of strength in 1Q, including personal consumption expenditures (PCE) on services, which contributed more than 200 basis points of growth, as well as capital investments into equipment (+68 basis points) and investments into intellectual property products (+57 bps). These are core elements of the U.S. economy. Segments of the economy that struggled in 1Q were on the quirkier side. For example, PCE-nondurable goods were down 57 basis points due to reduced consumption of gasoline and other energy products. Export goods were a negative 60 basis point impact, stemming from the Russian invasion of Ukraine as well as the COVID shutdowns in China. Government spending was also lower as the U.S. is largely on the other side of the pandemic, at least as far as fiscal stimulus programs are concerned. Finally, spending on imports (which counts against U.S. GDP growth) surged for the second quarter in a row, and reduced U.S. GDP growth by 260 basis points.

Monday Tee-Up: GDP Plus Inflation

The Market Tries to Come Back

This edition features Gap's continued makeover, how packaged food firms can protect themselves from margin pressure, FedEx keeping on trucking, and Pendal Group, Starbucks, and Reckitt Benckiser.

10 Investment Themes for 2022: Part 1 of 3

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

The Market's Big Test

Damon Runyon once commented that watching a yacht race is like watching grass grow. Well these days, watching changes in insider sentiment is like watching a yacht race. Indeed, overall insider sentiment remains cautious and stock indices remain at or near all-time highs.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

The stock market moved sideways last week, with no major catalysts setting a direction. On Friday, The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 234 points, or 0.71%. The S&P 500 fell 0.06% and the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.76%. For the week, the DJIA was down 0.46%, the S&P 500 was down 0.77%, and the Nasdaq Composite was down 0.79%. Year-to-date, the DJIA is up 6.60%, the S&P 4.18%, and the Nasdaq 2.54%.

This edition features optimism for Arkema; Seven & I's food-service strategy; the Fed's next moves for interest rates; and notes from Bank of America, FedEx, and American Express.