Fortive Corporation (FTV) stock forecast and price target

Stocks gave up early gains on Wednesday morning as investors continued to weigh comments from Fed officials along with a new round of earnings reports. Warner Bros. Discovery plunged more than 15% after the company reported a wider-than-expected 3Q loss amid weak network advertising revenue. Disney will report fiscal 4Q results after the close. The Dow fell 0.1%, the S&P 0.1%, and the Nasdaq 0.2%. Crude oil fell to $76 per barrel, while gold traded near $1963 per ounce.

We have been looking for some important reversals in Treasuries and in currencies -- and finally, they may be here. Lower yields and a weaker greenback would be equity friendly and should turn the beaten-down metals around.

Economy and Earnings Send Mixed Signals

Historical insider-sentiment data from Vickers Stock Research indicates that when short-term (one-week) and long-term (eight-week) proprietary sell/buy ratios from Vickers align in bullish territory (below 2.00), stocks outperform over the next one to six months. Back on May 1, Vickers' data indicated the start of a bullish-sentiment trend and, indeed, that led to the needed alignment (which carried on for six weeks.) During that time, the S&P 500 gained over 4% and the Nasdaq popped almost 10%.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Mid Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. The market capitalization range for U.S. mid-caps typically falls between $1 billion and $8 billion and represents 20% of the total capitalization of the U.S. equity market.

The Fed's rate-hike cycle of 2022-23 may be over. Between March 2022 and May 2023, the Fed hiked rates 10 times. Compared with recent rate-hiking periods, the cycle was shorter than average and packed in a larger average cumulative hike. We count seven meaningful rate-hiking periods since 1980. Over most of them, stocks absorbed and adjusted to higher rates without much turmoil. Relatively speaking, several rate cycles from 1980 through 2020 required only modest tweaks by the Fed. The stock market struggled during the 2022-23 rate cycle mainly because the Fed's actions were intense, in response to inflation that took over like a wild fire. One positive from past rate-hiking cycles is that when they are over, the stock market usually is in a good mood. We studied stock-market performance during the seven periods of rising federal funds rates since 1980. These occurred in 1983-84, 1988-89, 1993-95, 1999-2000, 2004-06, 2016-19 and 2022-23. On average, these periods lasted about 18 months. The average change over the cycle was a cumulative hike of 320 basis points. The fed funds rate at the end of the cycle averaged 6.7%, well above the 4.5% average federal funds rate since 1980. So then what happens? Our study found that stocks generally perform well once the rate cycle ends. The average performance for the S&P 500 in the six months after the end of rate-hike cycle was 11.6%, which translates to an annualized return of 23.0%. Among the prior six cycles, stocks declined only once over the following six months; that was in 1999-2000, ahead of the "dot-com" implosion. The market's big sigh of relief when the Fed is finished, it seems, puts powerful wind in the sails of the stock market.

Stocks were mostly higher on Monday morning amid hopes for a debt ceiling deal, with negotiations between the White House and Republican congressional leaders set to resume on Tuesday. Investors will also weigh new retail sales data on Tuesday along with earnings from Walmart, Target, and other major retailers later this week. The Dow fell 0.1%, the S&P rose 0.1%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.5%. Crude oil rose nearly 2% to $71 per barrel while gold rose $2 to $2022 per ounce.

In Monday's commentary, we talked about one of the things missing from this potential new bull market -- namely, a lockout rally. Persistent strength is a common theme after "the" low is in. In 1982, the 13-week rate-of-change (ROC) after the bottom was 37% and the S&P 500 (SPX) rose in 10 of those 13 weeks. Off the secondary low in early 1991, the 14W ROC was 22% with 10 of 14 weeks positive. In 1998, the 13W gain was 30% and the "500" rose in 10 of 13 weeks. After the technology meltdown, the 13W bounce off the 2003 low was 20%, with 10 of 13 weeks on the upside. After the financial crises, we witnessed a 38% rally in 2009, with the index rising in 11 of 13 weeks. Following the 2011 secondary low, the 16W rate-of-change was 22%, with advances in 13 of 16 weeks.

Monday Tee Up: Big Earnings Week, Big Inflation Week

Future actions by the FOMC concerning the fed funds rate during 2023 are top of mind for most investors and, as such, we have seen a pop in the short end of the curve. Yet the 10-year is showing little volatility, as its daily Bollinger Band width continues to tighten. The bands are as tight as they have been since May and September 2021. Historically (and this happens with most financial assets), when volatility shrinks, a big move often is right around the corner.

Rally in October, Stumble on the Fed: Our Monthly Survey of the Economy, Interest Rates, and Stocks

Recession Barometer: Struggling Consumers, Busy Business Economy

Stocks finished mostly lower on Thursday after paring sharp early losses. Investors weighed more hot inflation data, though producer prices did show slightly slower year-over-year growth in April than in March. The Labor Department reported that its PPI for final demand rose 11% from the prior year in April, down from 11.5% in March but above consensus. On the employment front, first-time claims for state unemployment benefits rose to 203,000 for the week ended May 7, up from a revised 202,000 a week earlier and above the consensus estimate. The Dow fell 0.33%, the S&P fell 0.13%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.06%. Crude oil traded near $107 per barrel, while gold fell $32 to $1822 per ounce.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Mid Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. The market capitalization range for U.S. mid-caps typically falls between $1 billion and $8 billion and represents 20% of the total capitalization of the U.S. equity market.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Mid Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. The market capitalization range for U.S. mid-caps typically falls between $1 billion and $8 billion and represents 20% of the total capitalization of the U.S. equity market.

Trimming GDP Estimates for 1Q22

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Mid Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. The market capitalization range for U.S. mid-caps typically falls between $1 billion and $8 billion and represents 20% of the total capitalization of the U.S. equity market.

So far, it has been a very good year for U.S. stocks -- and with favorable seasonals, we could see additional gains before the ball drops. Starting at the top, and looking at the major indices, the Dow Jones Transport Average is up a whopping 32%, followed by the S&P SmallCap 600, with a 29% gain. The Nasdaq 100 has popped 27%, while the S&P 100, the S&P MidCap 400, and the S&P 500 all have tacked on 25%. The Nasdaq Composite has risen 24%, the Russell 2000 has added 21%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 20%, and the NYSE Composite is ahead by 18%. Pretty steady from top to bottom and it's hard to complain about such clustered returns.

Is This the Corner?

As we have noted recently, there has been a sharp increase in Treasury yields across the entire yield curve. At the start of September, two-year notes were yielding 0.2%. As of the close on Monday, they were at 0.44%. The five-year note has risen from 0.78% to 1.16%, the 10-year bond has jumped from 1.31% to 1.64%, and the 30-year bond has popped from 1.92% to 2.09%. Both the two- and five-year note yields are at their highest since the pandemic began, when yields plummeted. As we have said, market rates are a great tell as generally they move before government rates (fed funds) do.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Mid Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. The market capitalization range for U.S. mid-caps typically falls between $1 billion and $8 billion and represents 20% of the total capitalization of the U.S. equity market.

Measurements of sentiment reflect ongoing optimism and, so far, liquidity has trumped most technical indicators. Indeed, there is a fair amount of historical precedent for that.

The stock market was mixed last week, as the market weighed pessimism from consumers and coronavirus news in generally quiet trading. Blue chips outperformed tech stocks. During Friday's session, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 16 points, or 0.04%. The S&P 500 was up 0.16%, and the Nasdaq Composite was up 0.04%. For the week, the DJIA was up 307 points, or 0.87%, the S&P 500 was up 0.71%, and the Nasdaq Composite was down 0.09%. Year-to-date, the DJIA is up 16.04%, the S&P 500 is up 18.95%, and the Nasdaq Composite is up 15.01%.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Mid Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. The market capitalization range for U.S. mid-caps typically falls between $1 billion and $8 billion and represents 20% of the total capitalization of the U.S. equity market.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Mid Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. The market capitalization range for U.S. mid-caps typically falls between $1 billion and $8 billion and represents 20% of the total capitalization of the U.S. equity market.

The stock market was flat-to-down last week, as technology stocks outperformed blue chips. During Friday's session, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 124 points, or 0.36%. The S&P 500 was down 0.08%, and the Nasdaq Composite was down 0.48%. For the week, the DJIA was down 174 points, or 0.51%, the S&P 500 was down 0.43%, and the Nasdaq Composite was up 0.31%. Year-to-date, the DJIA is up 11.77%, the S&P 500 is up 10.64%, and the Nasdaq Composite is up 4.52%.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Mid Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. The market capitalization range for U.S. mid-caps typically falls between $1 billion and $8 billion and represents 20% of the total capitalization of the U.S. equity market.

With earnings season drawing to a close, the volume of weekly insider transactions is returning to normal. As such, there is increased relevance in the signals being thrown off by corporate executives, directors and beneficial owners. And those signals are little changed from what we've seen over the past several weeks. Insider sentiment remains broadly cautious, with the caution led by insiders at companies that list on the tech-heavy Nasdaq.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Mid Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. The market capitalization range for U.S. mid-caps typically falls between $1 billion and $8 billion and represents 20% of the total capitalization of the U.S. equity market.

Stocks rose last week, showing impressive breadth including a new all-time high for the small-cap Russell 2000. On Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 400 points, or 1.37%. The S&P 500 rose 48 points, or 1.1%, and the Nasdaq Composite was up 120 points or 1%. For the full week, investors favored defensive stocks, while shying away from technology high-flyers. Last week, the Dow was up 4.1%, on top of the prior week's 6.9% gain. The S&P 500 was up 2.2%, propelling the index to a new all-time high. The Nasdaq was down for the week, falling half a percentage point. For the year-to-date, the DJIA is back in positive territory with a gain of 3.3%. The S&P is up 11.0%, and the Nasdaq is up 31.8%. Over the past 52 weeks, the Dow is up 5.3%, the S&P 500 is up 14.9%, and the Nasdaq is up 38.5%.

The stock market closed on October 9 with a winning session, ending its best week in three months. With a close at 3,477, the S&P 500 pulled within 3% of its all-time high of 3,588 from 9/2/20, and the index moved higher still on October 12. The September sell-off -- which resulted in a near-correction (defined as down 10%) for the broad market and full corrections for leading Technology names -- cleared away some (only some) of the excessive optimism. It also partly (only partly) restored some sector balance; two of the best sectors in 4Q20-to-date have been out of favor all year.

The stock market closed on October 9 with a winning session, ending its best week in three months. With a close at 3,477, the S&P 500 pulled within 3% of its all-time high of 3,588 from 9/2/20, and the index moved higher still on October 12. The September sell-off -- which resulted in a near-correction (defined as down 10%) for the broad market and full corrections for leading Technology names -- cleared away some (only some) of the excessive optimism. It also partly (only partly) restored some sector balance; two of the best sectors in 4Q20-to-date have been out of favor all year.

Charging Ahead: Our Monthly Survey of the Economy, Interest Rates, and Markets

Charging Ahead: Our Monthly Survey of the Economy, Interest Rates, and Markets

Stocks rose strongly on Wednesday morning, recovering from the late-day selloff on Tuesday. Lowe's reported strong first-quarter sales and earnings, driven by an 80% increase in online sales. Target also topped consensus estimates on strong digital sales, which rose 141% from the prior year. The Dow rose 1.7%, the S&P 1.9%, and the Nasdaq 2.2%. Crude oil traded near $33 per barrel, while gold rose $6 to $1751 per ounce.

Stocks rose strongly on Wednesday morning, recovering from the late-day selloff on Tuesday. Lowe's reported strong first-quarter sales and earnings, driven by an 80% increase in online sales. Target also topped consensus estimates on strong digital sales, which rose 141% from the prior year. The Dow rose 1.7%, the S&P 1.9%, and the Nasdaq 2.2%. Crude oil traded near $33 per barrel, while gold rose $6 to $1751 per ounce.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Mid Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. The market capitalization range for U.S. mid-caps typically falls between $1 billion and $8 billion and represents 20% of the total capitalization of the U.S. equity market.

Spun off from Danaher in 2016, Fortive is a diversified industrial firm operating in two distinct business segments: professional instruments and industrial technologies. The company serves a wide range of end markets, including retail fueling, manufacturing, medical, automotive aftermarket, and power. Its broad array of products includes test tools, sensors, fueling equipment, telematics, point-of-sale and payment systems, as well as associated software. Fortive generated roughly $7.3 billion in revenue and $1.6 billion in adjusted operating income in 2019.

Stocks fell on Tuesday morning after Apple warned that it would miss its revenue guidance for the current quarter due to the impact of the coronavirus. Apple shares fell nearly 3% and sales of Apple suppliers were also down sharply. Industries doing well today include multiline retail, food and staples retailing, and electric utilities. Industries trading lower today include energy equipment and services, technology hardware, storage and peripherals, and construction materials. The VIX is up 1.64 at 15.32. The Dow fell 0.9%, the S&P 0.7%, and the Nasdaq 0.5%. Crude oil traded near $51.50 per barrel, while gold rose $20 to $1607 per ounce.

Stocks fell on Tuesday morning after Apple warned that it would miss its revenue guidance for the current quarter due to the impact of the coronavirus. Apple shares fell nearly 3% and sales of Apple suppliers were also down sharply. Industries doing well today include multiline retail, food and staples retailing, and electric utilities. Industries trading lower today include energy equipment and services, technology hardware, storage and peripherals, and construction materials. The VIX is up 1.64 at 15.32. The Dow fell 0.9%, the S&P 0.7%, and the Nasdaq 0.5%. Crude oil traded near $51.50 per barrel, while gold rose $20 to $1607 per ounce.

Charging Ahead: Our Monthly Survey of the Economy, Interest Rates, and Markets