Semiconductors, the leading industry in the market since the AI boom started, soared 63% from October 30 until March 7, or in a little over four months. The group hung tough until finally cracking on Monday. The iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) sliced through its 50-day this week for the first time since last August and has given back 11% in 28 days since its last all-time closing high. The three-month August to October 2023 decline was 17%, and that was after the 80% surge from October 2022 until August 2023. At its peak on March 7, the SOXX was up 24% year-to-date, but is now up 10%. Nvidia has yet to touch its 50-day, but the stock got close on Wednesday.

For the past several weeks, we have highlighted insider-sentiment data from Vickers Stock Research that suggested investors should be cautious. That stance appears to be increasingly validated. Stocks had an impressive rally that saw moves of more than 20% in less than six months, but also resulted in the need for 'perfection' in company performances, the economy, interest rates, domestic politics, and geopolitics. But with geopolitics raging, earnings uncertainty ahead, stubborn inflation, and a fraught political landscape in the U.S., things are certainly not perfect.

The FOMC maintained the target range for the fed funds rate at 5.25 to 5.50%. The FOMC does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2%. The FOMC will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency MBS, but said that the central bank will begin to slow its balance sheet runoff soon. Recent indicators suggest that the economy has been expanding solidly. Job gains have remained strong and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation has eased over the past year but remains elevated.

The stock market has been on hold this week, as investors await the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure, the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE). The report tends to show inflation trends that are less affected by short-term price changes. Stocks threw a bit of a tantrum when the January CPI and PPI were released a few weeks ago, but the market has since shaken off these single data points. There are at least four Fed governor/president speeches as well today -- and more on Friday.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

Last week was one to remember for financial markets. After Tuesday's close, some Technology results disappointed investors, with GOOGL plunging 8% and MSFT off 2.5%. While expectations for a March FOMC rate cut already had mostly disappeared, the market didn't like hearing it from Jerome Powell, which knocked the market even lower. The S&P 500 (SPX) lost 1.6%, the S&P 100 (OEX) gave up 1.8%, the Nasdaq fell 2.2%, and the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) dropped 2%.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

As we move into the second half of January, the major indices are at, near, or closing in on all-time highs. Yet technical evidence continues to mount for some type of pullback or correction. We have talked recently about poor market breadth, but there are plenty of other and more-obscure indicators that also do not line up well for the bulls.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

The 10-year Treasury yield rose 83 basis points (bps) on October 16; the five-year yield popped 73 bps; and the two-year rose five bps. Yet to everyone's surprise, the stock market posted some very nice gains that same day. There are times when investors start to ignore (or simply get used to) conditions that have been bothering them for months and start trading stocks on their merits. Still, even with the recent increase, yields have not yet reached recovery highs. With third-quarter earnings season upon us, investors now have something else on which to focus.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

Stocks rose on Wednesday morning following mixed earnings reports and new housing market data. Goldman Sachs reported a sharp drop in 2Q earnings amid weakness in its investment banking and trading businesses, while semiconductor equipment maker ASML Holding posted strong results and raised its full-year sales guidance. On the housing front, the Commerce Department said that U.S. housing starts fell to an annualized 1.434 million in June, down 8% from May and below the Reuters consensus forecast of 1.48 million. The Dow rose 0.7%, the S&P 0.4%, and the Nasdaq 0.2%. Crude oil rose 1% to $77 per barrel, while gold fell slightly to $1980 per ounce.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

Market Outlook for 2023

The major indices wavered between gains and losses on Friday morning after Thursday's sharp selloff and a mixed February employment report. The Labor Department said that the U.S. economy added 311,000 payroll jobs last month, well above the consensus forecast; however, growth in average hourly earnings slowed to 0.2% from 0.3% in January and the unemployment rate rose to 3.6% from 3.4%. Media reports indicated that embattled SVB Financial was seeking a buyer after the stock plunged more than 60% on Thursday; trading in the shares was halted on Friday morning. The Dow fell 0.1%, the S&P 0.2%, and the Nasdaq 0.4%. Crude oil rose to $77 per barrel, while gold jumped $25 to $1859 per ounce.

Over the six trading sessions ended January 13, the S&P 500 (SPX) tacked on 5%, while both the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 were up over 7%. The S&P MidCap 400 was up 6.3% and the Russell 2000 popped 7.7%. The NYSE, as well as mid- and small-cap indices, are opening up some distance from their 200-day averages (a good sign), while the '500' closed 18 points above its 200-day (good, not enough to declare a breakout). The next two key pieces of resistance for the '500' are the bear-market trendline (which comes in at 4,035 when looking out a week) and the December high (at 4,100).

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

Stocks were mixed on Wednesday morning as investors weighed earnings reports from Netflix, Procter & Gamble, and Abbott Laboratories, and new housing market data. The Commerce Department said that U.S. housing starts fell 8.1% in September to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.439 million, below the Reuters consensus forecast of 1.475 million. Building permits rose 1.4% to an annualized 1.564 million, above the consensus of 1.530 million. The Dow rose 0.2%, the S&P fell 0.3%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.4%. Crude oil rose slightly to $83 per barrel, while gold fell $17 to $1639 per ounce.

We are starting to see both relative as well as absolute strength from Financial sector stocks, as the S&P Financial Sector Fund (XLF) has been outperforming the S&P 500 since August 4. While a month of outperformance isn't a whole lot to hang your hat on, it is interesting for several reasons that may give this early trend some time to play out.

The weekly volume of insider transactions is now very low, which is to be expected as earnings season is in full swing and executives, directors, and beneficial owners are broadly prohibited from trading. Having used the past few weeks to prepare themselves for earnings season, insiders will now watch and wait. So how did they set the stage for this period of trading dormancy? The current data from Vickers Stock Research provides a clear picture of insider sentiment that is remarkably balanced and seemingly very optimistic.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

Stocks fell sharply on Thursday afternoon, giving up early gains after Fed officials raised prospects for more aggressive 50-basis-point rate hikes beginning next month. On the earnings front, automaker Tesla and American Airlines posted stronger-than-expected results. Weekly employment data was generally positive. The Labor Department said that first-time claims for state unemployment benefits fell to 184,000 for the week ended April 16, down from 186,000 a week earlier but above the Bloomberg consensus of 180,000. Continuing claims fell to 1.417 million from 1.475 million a week earlier and were below the consensus estimate. The Dow fell 1.05%, the S&P 1.48%, and the Nasdaq 2.07%. Crude oil traded near $104 per barrel, while gold fell $2 to $1954 per ounce.

The stock market has had a rough, though not catastrophic, first two weeks in 2022. For the year-to-date (YTD), the S&P 500 is down 2.2%. The DJIA is faring slightly better, off 1.2% YTD, even though big bank DJIA components were hammered Friday following so-so earnings. Risk is off in this market and the Nasdaq Composite is down 4.8% for the year-to-date.

Stocks rose on Tuesday morning as investors weighed earnings reports from Johnson & Johnson and Procter & Gamble, and new housing market data. Johnson & Johnson shares rose more than 2% following mixed 3Q results and higher full-year earnings guidance. P&G shares fell after the company topped fiscal 1Q consensus estimates but maintained its full-year guidance to reflect the impact of rising costs. Housing starts fell a greater-than-expected 1.6% in September to an annualized 1.555 million units. Building permits dropped a sharper 7.7%, compared to the consensus call for a 2.4% decline. The Dow rose 0.4%, the S&P 0.5%, and the Nasdaq 0.5%. Crude oil traded near $82.50 per barrel, while gold rose $7 to $1772 per ounce.

This edition features digital adversiting and regulatory risk; our quarterly telecom outlook; new coverage of backup power leader Generac; and notes from Continental, Goldman Sachs, and Boston Beer.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

When investors are souring on the stock market, they tend to sell any rallies. And when they are willing to let the good times roll, they tend to buy any dips. So far, 2021 has been a year of buying the dips. That may explain why, in the trading year to date, every month except January finished with a gain on the S&P 500. The blue-chip index advanced 5.8% in the first half, was up 14.4% as of mid-year, and is already up 1.7% in July. Granted, historically July is the best summer month, averaging a 1.1% gain on the S&P 500 since 1980.

etting Ready for Higher Prices?

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

We saw some strange trading days in late 2020, and the majority of them had to do with the massive rotation that was happening at the time. But maybe we should start calling days like Thursday, January 14 more the norm than wacky. As we said recently, 2021 is starting out as the polar opposite of 2020 -- at least as far as the markets are concerned.