U.S. stocks finished mostly lower on Thursday. On the housing front, sales of existing homes declined 4.3% in March to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.19 million, just ahead of estimates of 4.17 million. The median home sales price was $393,000, which is 4.8% higher than a year ago and marks the ninth consecutive month of year-on-year increases. The average 30-year mortgage rate rose above 7%. The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index slipped 0.3%, which was below expectations of a 0.1% decline and follows a 0.2% advance in February. Negative factors for the index were a weaker consumer outlook on business conditions, and a decrease in new orders and building permits -- which more than offset positive contributions from gains in equities and credit conditions. The S&P 500 fell about 0.2%, the Dow closed just above the flat line and the Nasdaq dropped 0.5%

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Mid Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. The market capitalization range for U.S. mid-caps typically falls between $1 billion and $8 billion and represents 20% of the total capitalization of the U.S. equity market.

Small- and mid-cap stocks (SMID) have underperformed large-caps over the past 12 months, but may be in a better position to generate market-beating returns going forward. SMID companies tend to focus on domestic markets, so their businesses could be less disrupted by the fallout from global events. As well, the prices of SMID stocks generally are lower than the prices of large-caps. As well, there are long stretches in the record books when SMID stocks have outperformed large-caps. That said, SMID stocks can be risky. The standard deviation for monthly returns was 5.7% for SMID stocks over a 2003-2021 test period, versus 4.3% for large-caps. Still, despite the risks, diversified investors look to have exposure to small- and mid-caps based on the long-term performance record.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Mid Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. The market capitalization range for U.S. mid-caps typically falls between $1 billion and $8 billion and represents 20% of the total capitalization of the U.S. equity market.

Value stocks -- a market segment that includes high-yield stocks -- outperformed growth stocks in 2022. That's a recent rarity, as for the past decade-plus, the performance record has favored growth. But the tide turned in 2022. The rollout of COVID-19 vaccines gave a lift to some of the cyclical companies (energy and regional banks) that had lagged in recent quarters, and value stocks outpaced growth stocks that year. While growth stocks have retaken the lead since 2023, the Federal Reserve continues to keep interest rates high to fend off inflation. This could possibly cap multiple expansion for growth companies in coming quarters. In any event, the value sector is the place to achieve income.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Mid Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. The market capitalization range for U.S. mid-caps typically falls between $1 billion and $8 billion and represents 20% of the total capitalization of the U.S. equity market.

With earnings season officially under way, the weekly volume of insider transactions reported by Vickers Stock Research has hit cyclical lows and is likely to stay down for multiple weeks. That said, the clear feature characteristic of the transactions that were executed last week is ongoing selling by insides at companies that list of the tech-heavy Nasdaq.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Mid Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. The market capitalization range for U.S. mid-caps typically falls between $1 billion and $8 billion and represents 20% of the total capitalization of the U.S. equity market.

Many investors are getting a nice holiday present this December, as 2023 is closing out with a burst higher for stocks. The gains have been swift in the last month or so and are spread across sectors and market caps. Yet some companies have not joined in the party - and we think they may present opportunities. We used the Argus screening tool to generate a list of companies that have clean balance sheets and a proven track record for profits. We also like the management teams and strategies at these companies. For our list, we identified 11 BUY-rated large- or mega-cap companies across numerous industries that are selling at more than 25% below their 52-week highs. The list includes stocks in multiple sectors.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Mid Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. The market capitalization range for U.S. mid-caps typically falls between $1 billion and $8 billion and represents 20% of the total capitalization of the U.S. equity market.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Mid Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. The market capitalization range for U.S. mid-caps typically falls between $1 billion and $8 billion and represents 20% of the total capitalization of the U.S. equity market.

U.S. equites finished lower on Thursday while Treasury yields rose as investors digested comments by Fed Chair Powell. Mr. Powell warned that the central bank may need to hike rates as inflation is still too high but 'the committee is proceeding carefully,' hinting that rates could hold steady in November. The 10-year Treasury yield reached 5% for the first time since 2007. The S&P 500 closed 0.9% lower, the Dow was down 0.8% and the Nasdaq lost nearly 1%. Crude oil rose above $90 per barrel and gold was up to $1985 per ounce.

In this edition, analyzing new bank regulatory proposals; PFA may shake up atrial fibrillation ablation market; CEO change at Dollar General may make sense to frustrated investors; and Microsoft, Wells Fargo, and Anta Sports Products.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Mid Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. The market capitalization range for U.S. mid-caps typically falls between $1 billion and $8 billion and represents 20% of the total capitalization of the U.S. equity market.

Small- and mid-cap stocks (SMID) have underperformed large-caps over the past 12 months, but may be in a better position to generate market-beating returns going forward. SMID companies tend to focus on domestic markets, so their businesses could be less disrupted by the fallout from the Russian invasion of Ukraine, high European inflation or other geopolitical developments. As well, the prices of SMID stocks generally are lower than the prices of large-caps. SMID stocks can be risky, but diversified investors look to have exposure to small- and mid-caps based on the long-term performance record. We estimate that 12%-15% of the U.S. stock market's capitalization is comprised of SMID stocks. For our purposes, we use a threshold of $20 billion to define a SMID stock.

Value stocks -- a market segment that includes high-yield stocks -- outperformed growth stocks in 2022 for the first time since 2016. Indeed, for the past decade, the performance record has favored growth. But the tide turned in 2022. The rollout of COVID-19 vaccines gave a lift to some of the cyclical companies (energy companies and regional banks) that had lagged in recent quarters, and value stocks outpaced growth stocks over the past year. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve continues to lift interest rates to fend off inflation, which could possibly cap multiple expansion for growth companies for a few more quarters. Regardless, the value sector is the place to achieve income. The current yield on the iShares Russell 1000 Value Index ETF is 2.2%, compared to the 0.9% current yield on the iShares Russell 1000 Growth Index ETF. For our High-Yield Theme Model Portfolio, we are seeking stocks with yields of at least 3.0%. This moves us deep into the value segment of the market.

Value stocks -- a market segment that includes high-yield stocks -- outperformed growth stocks in 2022 for the first time since 2016. Indeed, for the past decade, the performance record has favored growth. But the tide turned in 2022. The rollout of COVID-19 vaccines gave a lift to some of the cyclical companies (energy companies and regional banks) that had lagged in recent quarters, and value stocks outpaced growth stocks over the past year. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve continues to lift interest rates to fend off inflation, which could possibly cap multiple expansion for growth companies for a few more quarters. Regardless, the value sector is the place to achieve income. The current yield on the iShares Russell 1000 Value Index ETF is 2.2%, compared to the 0.9% current yield on the iShares Russell 1000 Growth Index ETF. For our High-Yield Theme Model Portfolio, we are seeking stocks with yields of at least 3.0%. This moves us deep into the value segment of the market.

Value stocks (a market segment that includes high-yield stocks) outperformed growth stocks in 2022 for the first time since 2016. For the past decade, the performance record has favored growth. Since 2010, the Russell 1000 Growth Index has climbed more than 500%, compared to an advance of almost 300% for the Russell 1000 Value Index. In eight of the past 10 years, growth stocks have topped value stocks. That hasn't always been the case. In the 2000-2010 decade, including the Great Recession, value stocks were better performers than growth stocks, advancing an admittedly low 8% -- but still better than growth, which declined 15% during the decade. Value investors trace their roots to the famous "Security Analysis" textbook, written by Ben Graham, an economics professor at Columbia University. Warren Buffett was one of his students. Why the recent deviation in performance? Several reasons, including changes in the make-up of the economy, growth in intangible assets, and the current low level of interest rates. But the tide turned back in 2022. The rollout of COVID-19 vaccines gave a lift to some of the cyclical companies (energy companies and regional banks) that had lagged in recent quarters. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve continues to lift interest rates to fend off inflation, which could possibly cap multiple expansion for growth companies for a few more quarters. Regardless, the value sector is the place to achieve income. Our High-Yield theme portfolio is designed to take advantage of these conditions.

Monday Tee Up: Another Fed Hike?

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Mid Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. The market capitalization range for U.S. mid-caps typically falls between $1 billion and $8 billion and represents 20% of the total capitalization of the U.S. equity market.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

The major indices were little changed on Friday morning, as gains in the Consumer Discretionary and Staples sectors were offset by declines in Financials, Energy, and Materials. On the earnings front, Procter & Gamble shares rose more than 3% after the company posted better-than-expected fiscal 3Q earnings, helped by price increases and strong sales of new products, and raised its full-year sales forecast. Hospital operator HCA Healthcare also rose 5% after reporting strong 1Q results and raising its sales and earnings guidance. The Dow fell 0.1%, the S&P fell 0.1% and the Nasdaq was flat. Crude oil rose to $78 per barrel, while gold dropped $31 to $1988 per ounce.

In 1Q23, stocks continued to recover from the bear-market lows of 2022, with the S&P 500 rising 7% for the quarter. Performance was led by last year's laggard sectors, including Communication Services and Technology. Last year's top-performing sector, Energy, was the worst in 1Q23. Financial Services, including banks, were not far ahead. The average stock in the Argus Universe of Coverage rose 4% in the quarter; the median stock advanced 2%. The average BUY-rated stock rose 5.4% and the average HOLD-rated stock gained 3.4%. Recently, we raised our sector rating on Technology to Over-Weight, and expect outperformance into 2Q -- especially if interest rates head lower. We also raised our rating on Financial Services, and the bottom five stocks in our list point to potential value opportunities.

Small- and mid-cap stocks (SMID) have underperformed large-caps over the past 12 months, but may be in a better position to generate market-beating returns going forward. SMID companies tend to focus on domestic markets, so their businesses could be less disrupted by the fallout from the Russian invasion of Ukraine, high European inflation or other geopolitical developments. As well, the prices of SMID stocks generally are lower than the prices of large-caps. SMID stocks can be risky, but diversified investors look to have exposure to small- and mid-caps based on the long-term performance record. We estimate that 12%-15% of the U.S. stock market's capitalization is comprised of SMID stocks. For our purposes, we use a threshold of $15 billion to define a SMID stock.

Small- and mid-cap stocks (SMID stocks) have underperformed large-caps over the past 12 months, but may be in a better position to generate market-beating returns going forward. For one thing, SMID companies tend to focus on domestic markets, so their businesses could be less disrupted by the fallout from the Russian invasion of Ukraine, high European inflation, and other geopolitical developments. As well, the prices of SMID stocks generally are lower than the prices of large-caps, with the P/E ratio on the Russell 2000 Small-Cap Index at 11 compared to a trailing P/E of 20 for the S&P 500. Finally, the long-term record has favored SMID stocks over large-caps. From 2003-2022, the Russell 2000 Index climbed 470%, compared to an advance of 444% for the S&P 500 index. Here are the stocks with market caps below $15 billion that are on the Argus BUY list and have been added to our Mid-Cap Theme Model Portfolio.

California-based SVB Financial Group was taken over by regulators last Friday due to inadequate liquidity and insolvency; SIVB equity shareholders have been wiped out. The collapse has reverberated on Wall Street in a sharp downturn in bank stocks as investors worry about a contagion impact on the banking industry. We believe the reaction has been overblown. Silicon Valley Bank was a special situation in two ways. First, deposits at the bank accounted for about 90% of funding, versus 65% for the average bank, leaving the bank susceptible to funding shortfalls from a relatively small base of depositors. As well, the bank was deeply concentrated in holding deposits for technology start-ups, which have been unable to access the capital markets due to a downturn in capital raising and were thus funding operations by draining their deposits from prior fund raisings. While depositors with more than the FDIC cap of $250,000 will face uncertain timing on recovery of funds, we view deposits as a zero sum game. Funds pulled from one bank will be allocated to another. Banks routinely face interest-rate cycles and hold a large amount of fixed-income assets, sometimes at gains, other times at losses. But default risk is really non-existent and gains/losses are zero if held to maturity. SVB's issue was having received a large amount of deposits and having invested them when rates were very low, and then being asked for those deposits back after rates moved considerably higher -- leaving it with short-term losses. Larger banks have far better distribution among funding sources (such as a greater number of depositors and short-term borrowings). Larger banks also are subject to stringent stress tests on a range of severe economic scenarios and have abundant capital requirements. Smaller banks with large exposure to single sectors may be at risk, so we would focus on larger banks in this risk-off environment. Here is a list of BUY-rated Financial sector stocks in Argus' universe of coverage that fell sharply last week and offer value, in our opinion.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Mid Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. The market capitalization range for U.S. mid-caps typically falls between $1 billion and $8 billion and represents 20% of the total capitalization of the U.S. equity market.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Mid Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. The market capitalization range for U.S. mid-caps typically falls between $1 billion and $8 billion and represents 20% of the total capitalization of the U.S. equity market.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Mid Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. The market capitalization range for U.S. mid-caps typically falls between $1 billion and $8 billion and represents 20% of the total capitalization of the U.S. equity market.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Mid Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. The market capitalization range for U.S. mid-caps typically falls between $1 billion and $8 billion and represents 20% of the total capitalization of the U.S. equity market.

Stocks finished lower on Thursday after giving up early gains, as investors weighed mixed earnings reports along with new employment and housing market data. First-time claims for state unemployment benefits fell by 12,000 to 214,000 for the week ended October 15, below the Bloomberg consensus forecast of 230,000. Continuing claims rose by 21,000 to 1.385 million. On the housing front, existing home sales fell 1.5% in September to an annualized 4.71 million units, slightly above the consensus estimate. The Dow fell 0.30%, the S&P 0.80%, and the Nasdaq 0.61%. Crude oil rose to $86 per barrel, while gold fell slightly to $1633 per ounce.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Mid Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. The market capitalization range for U.S. mid-caps typically falls between $1 billion and $8 billion and represents 20% of the total capitalization of the U.S. equity market.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Mid Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. The market capitalization range for U.S. mid-caps typically falls between $1 billion and $8 billion and represents 20% of the total capitalization of the U.S. equity market.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Mid Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. The market capitalization range for U.S. mid-caps typically falls between $1 billion and $8 billion and represents 20% of the total capitalization of the U.S. equity market.

Last week was the busiest of the quarter for earnings, with many sharp stock-price moves following above- or below-consensus results or changes in guidance. Through July 26, Refinitiv noted that 133 S&P 500 companies had reported earnings, with 76% beating expectations, above the long-term average of 66%. The blended (actual for those reporting and consensus for those still to report) growth rate is 6.2%, near the 5.6% expectation and indicating the "beats" have not been robust. But the sour mood coming into the quarter is being greeted with relief that profit shortfalls and lowered guidance are not rampant. Our analysts always look for companies that boost outlooks during earnings season. Raising guidance can be a catalyst for strong returns in the quarters ahead. Here is an initial list of BUY-rated companies in Argus coverage with raised guidance or increased outlooks during the 2Q22 EPS reporting season.

Monday Tee-Up: Fed, Inflation Data, GDP, and Earnings

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Mid Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. The market capitalization range for U.S. mid-caps typically falls between $1 billion and $8 billion and represents 20% of the total capitalization of the U.S. equity market.

The stock market opens Monday looking for a fresh start after last week's bruising. There are plenty of big earnings and economic reports coming to digest this week. On the docket are the big tech behemoths including Amazon (AMZN), Apple (AAPL), Alphabet (GOOG), Microsoft (MSFT), and Meta Platforms (META). Plenty of other giants report this week including Coca-Cola (KO), Chipotle (CMG), General Electric (GE), General Motors (GM), Boeing (BA), Exxon Mobil (XOM, Chevron (CVX), and Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY) among many others. The range of companies will give more data points on how different sectors are weathering the many external factors out there including - inflation, rising interest rates, and the continued war in Ukraine including economic sanctions on Russia. Last week, the Dow Jones Industrial average was down 640 points or 1.9%, the S&P 500 fell 2.8%, and the Nasdaq Composite was hit the hardest, losing 3.8%. Year-to-date, the Dow is down 7%, the S&P 500 is now in correction territory, off 10.4%, and the Nasdaq digs deeper into correction territory, down 17.9%. On Friday, the Dow suffered its worst one-day point loss since October 2020, shedding 981 points or 2.8%, the S&P 500 lost 2.8%, and the Nasdaq fell 2.6%. It was a rough week.

The entire Treasury yield curve continues to move higher, with some yields back to pre-pandemic levels. The 10-year yield hit an intraday high of 1.87% on January 19, the highest level since January of 2020. The 10-year recently broke above key chart support in the 1.70% area and, in the process, completed a very large cup-with-handle that started about two years ago. The next chart support is between 1.95% and 2.07%. Over the past two weeks, the 10-year has paused after cycling into overbought territory on the daily chart.

Stocks rebounded on Thursday morning following positive earnings reports from Travelers and Baker Hughes, a day after the Nasdaq dropped into correction territory. On the employment front, the Labor Department said that first-time claims for state unemployment benefits rose to 286,000 for the week ended January 15, up from 231,000 a week earlier and above the consensus forecast of 225,000. The Dow rose 1.2%, the S&P 1.3%, and the Nasdaq 1.8%. Crude oil rose to near $88 per barrel, while gold fell $3 to $1840 per ounce.

The December Fed meeting lifted the S&P 500 by 1.6%, but the Fed meeting yesterday was not so kind. The S&P 500 fell 1.9%, but the real damage was seen in the Nasdaq (-3.3%), the Nasdaq 100 (-3.1%), and the Russell 2000 (-3.4%). The mid-caps did not fare well either, losing 2.3%. For most of the day, even a little after the hawkish Fed announcement, NYSE breadth oscillated around the flat line. Then investors threw the baby out with the bath water and the NYSE A/D finished at a weak -2,240.

After reaching euphoric levels in first part of November, sentiment has quickly cooled following the recent price volatility. This is not one bit surprising as the major indices rapidly pulled back from all-time highs during the month of November.

Yesterday, we discussed issues that could lead to a market pullback, and today that event may be here. Of course, we have been looking for a pause in the uptrend for weeks now. On Wednesday, the S&P 500 lost 0.8%, the Nasdaq fell 1.7%, the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) dipped 1.5%, the S&P MidCap 400 gave up 0.9%, and the Russell 2000 (IWM) dropped 1.6%. Not to worry, though, as major indices remain close to all-time highs.

Stocks rose on Tuesday morning amid continued positive earnings reports and new consumer confidence and housing market data. The Conference Board said that its consumer confidence index rose to 113.8 in October, up from 109.8 in September and above the consensus forecast of 108.3. On the housing front, the Commerce Department said that new home sales rose 14% in September to an annualized rate of 800,000 units, up from a revised 702,000 in August. The reading was the strongest since March and above the Reuters consensus forecast of 760,000. The Dow rose 0.4%, the S&P 0.6%, and the Nasdaq 0.6%. Crude oil traded near $84 per barrel, while gold fell $19 to $1787 per ounce.