With July 2023 now in the books, the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Nasdaq 100 have all risen for five consecutive months, tacking on 16%, 25%, and 31%, respectively. For the month, the '500' rose 3%, the Nasdaq, Nasdaq 100 and S&P MidCap 400 all gained 4%, and the Russell 2000 popped 6%.

Earnings, Jobs Seek to Stave off Recession

Stocks were largely flat on Wednesday morning following mixed earnings from major banks. Goldman Sachs posted much better-than-expected 3Q revenue and earnings, driven by strength in asset management and fixed-income trading. Bank of America posted mixed results, missing on revenue but with EPS slightly above consensus. Wells Fargo posted better-than-expected revenue but fell short on EPS. The Dow rose 0.1%, the S&P 0.1%, and the Nasdaq 0.2%. Crude oil traded near $41 per barrel, while gold rose $17 to $1911 per ounce.

Stocks were mixed on Thursday morning following better-than-expected weekly employment data. The Labor Department said that first-time unemployment benefit claims fell by 228,000 to 963,000 for the week ended August 8, below the Bloomberg consensus forecast of 1.1 million. The reading was the first below 1 million since the pandemic took hold in March. The Dow fell 0.1%, the S&P rose 0.2%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.9%. Crude oil fell 1% to $42 per barrel, while gold rose $9 to $1958 per ounce.

Stocks rallied on Monday morning following positive data on a potential coronavirus vaccine from Modena and comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. In an interview on '60 Minutes,' Mr. Powell said he expected the U.S. economy to 'recover steadily' through the second half of the year assuming no second wave of the virus. However, he cautioned that the recovery could stretch through the end of 2021 and that a full recovery would likely require the development of a vaccine. The Dow rose 3.5%, the S&P 3.1%, and the Nasdaq 2.4%. Crude oil rose 12% to $33 per barrel, while gold fell $19 to $1740 per ounce.

Stocks are down Monday morning ahead of the 1Q earnings reporting season. This earnings season is expected to be a wild ride as analysts' forecasts are spread out due to uncertainty over how long the coronavirus will continue to suppress economic activity. Over the weekend, OPEC+ reached an agreement to slash oil production by nearly 10 million barrels a day. Industries trading higher today include Food & Staples Retailing, Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels, and Internet & Direct Marketing Retail. Industries trading lower today include Consumer Finance, Distributors, and Airlines. The VIX is up 2.78 to 44.45. The Dow fell 2.4%, the S&P 2.2%, and the Nasdaq 1.2%. Crude oil traded near $23 per barrel, while gold fell $10 to $1743 per ounce.

Stocks rose modestly on Wednesday morning as investors awaited an afternoon policy statement from the Fed. On the earnings front, Apple posted better-than-expected fiscal 1Q results, driven by strong sales of iPhones, wearables, and accessories. GE shares rose more than 9% after the company topped consensus revenue and EPS estimates for 4Q19. The Dow rose 0.4%, the S&P 0.2%, and the Nasdaq 0.2%. Crude oil fell slightly to about $53 per barrel, while gold rose $1 to $1571 per ounce.

Stocks were mixed on Thursday morning following better-than-expected weekly employment data. The Labor Department said that first-time unemployment benefit claims fell by 228,000 to 963,000 for the week ended August 8, below the Bloomberg consensus forecast of 1.1 million. The reading was the first below 1 million since the pandemic took hold in March. The Dow fell 0.1%, the S&P rose 0.2%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.9%. Crude oil fell 1% to $42 per barrel, while gold rose $9 to $1958 per ounce.

Stocks rallied on Monday morning following positive data on a potential coronavirus vaccine from Modena and comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. In an interview on '60 Minutes,' Mr. Powell said he expected the U.S. economy to 'recover steadily' through the second half of the year assuming no second wave of the virus. However, he cautioned that the recovery could stretch through the end of 2021 and that a full recovery would likely require the development of a vaccine. The Dow rose 3.5%, the S&P 3.1%, and the Nasdaq 2.4%. Crude oil rose 12% to $33 per barrel, while gold fell $19 to $1740 per ounce.

Stocks are down Monday morning ahead of the 1Q earnings reporting season. This earnings season is expected to be a wild ride as analysts' forecasts are spread out due to uncertainty over how long the coronavirus will continue to suppress economic activity. Over the weekend, OPEC+ reached an agreement to slash oil production by nearly 10 million barrels a day. Industries trading higher today include Food & Staples Retailing, Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels, and Internet & Direct Marketing Retail. Industries trading lower today include Consumer Finance, Distributors, and Airlines. The VIX is up 2.78 to 44.45. The Dow fell 2.4%, the S&P 2.2%, and the Nasdaq 1.2%. Crude oil traded near $23 per barrel, while gold fell $10 to $1743 per ounce.

Stocks rose modestly on Wednesday morning as investors awaited an afternoon policy statement from the Fed. On the earnings front, Apple posted better-than-expected fiscal 1Q results, driven by strong sales of iPhones, wearables, and accessories. GE shares rose more than 9% after the company topped consensus revenue and EPS estimates for 4Q19. The Dow rose 0.4%, the S&P 0.2%, and the Nasdaq 0.2%. Crude oil fell slightly to about $53 per barrel, while gold rose $1 to $1571 per ounce.

Stocks were largely flat on Wednesday morning following mixed earnings from major banks. Goldman Sachs posted much better-than-expected 3Q revenue and earnings, driven by strength in asset management and fixed-income trading. Bank of America posted mixed results, missing on revenue but with EPS slightly above consensus. Wells Fargo posted better-than-expected revenue but fell short on EPS. The Dow rose 0.1%, the S&P 0.1%, and the Nasdaq 0.2%. Crude oil traded near $41 per barrel, while gold rose $17 to $1911 per ounce.

The S&P 500 has risen 16.7% in 2019, losing 1.8% in August. Since we last looked at sector performance in late July, there has been some deterioration in growth areas and some improvement in defensive sectors. While rotation occurs and is the lifeblood of any bull market, one does not want defensive sectors taking over for too long.

Who's afraid of the big, bad bear? Not insiders, or so it seems. For all the headline noise from trade, tweets, oil prices, geopolitical fears, Brexit, interest rates, the aging bull, and some unsettling guidance from companies like Broadcom, insiders continue to show no fear.

The analysis of insider trading has a few givens, and those givens can be contrarian. It's rarely bearish when insiders sell more than they buy (after all, much of the stock they own came their way at a very favorable price). Insiders also tend to buy a lot when everyone else is selling a lot (and look out below if they don't). And finally, insiders often buy noticeably less when everyone else is buying noticeably more (and feel very good about your 401k if they keep buying). But even in a world of contrarian behavior, events can occur that lead us to worry things are getting just a tad too contrarian. Indeed, a sizable change in insider attitudes may be taking hold.

The analysis of insider trading has a few givens, and those givens can be contrarian. It's rarely bearish when insiders sell more than they buy (after all, much of the stock they own came their way at a very favorable price). Insiders also tend to buy a lot when everyone else is selling a lot (and look out below if they don't). And finally, insiders often buy noticeably less when everyone else is buying noticeably more (and feel very good about your 401k if they keep buying). But even in a world of contrarian behavior, events can occur that lead us to worry things are getting just a tad too contrarian. Indeed, a sizable change in insider attitudes may be taking hold.

The S&P 500 has risen 16.7% in 2019, losing 1.8% in August. Since we last looked at sector performance in late July, there has been some deterioration in growth areas and some improvement in defensive sectors. While rotation occurs and is the lifeblood of any bull market, one does not want defensive sectors taking over for too long.

Investors Hoping for Usual 4Q Rally

Who's afraid of the big, bad bear? Not insiders, or so it seems. For all the headline noise from trade, tweets, oil prices, geopolitical fears, Brexit, interest rates, the aging bull, and some unsettling guidance from companies like Broadcom, insiders continue to show no fear.

The analysis of insider trading has a few givens, and those givens can be contrarian. It's rarely bearish when insiders sell more than they buy (after all, much of the stock they own came their way at a very favorable price). Insiders also tend to buy a lot when everyone else is selling a lot (and look out below if they don't). And finally, insiders often buy noticeably less when everyone else is buying noticeably more (and feel very good about your 401k if they keep buying). But even in a world of contrarian behavior, events can occur that lead us to worry things are getting just a tad too contrarian. Indeed, a sizable change in insider attitudes may be taking hold.

Stocks closed mostly lower on Thursday. The Federal Reserve announced that it will maintain the current interest rate for now, but expects more interest rate hikes in the near future. Energy stocks were down on lower crude oil prices. The Dow rose 0.04%, the S&P fell 0.3%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.5%. Crude oil fell 1% to about $61 per barrel, while gold traded near $1225 per ounce.

Stocks closed mostly lower on Thursday. The Federal Reserve announced that it will maintain the current interest rate for now, but expects more interest rate hikes in the near future. Energy stocks were down on lower crude oil prices. The Dow rose 0.04%, the S&P fell 0.3%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.5%. Crude oil fell 1% to about $61 per barrel, while gold traded near $1225 per ounce.

Growth stocks may be outperforming in 2018 -- but in an environment of historically low interest rates, many investors are still searching for high levels of income, which can often be found in Value stocks. Over the years, the performance record has favored Growth. Since 2003, the Russell 1000 Growth Index has climbed 423%, compared to an advance of 278% for the Russell 1000 Value Index. In 10 of the 15 years of this period, Growth stocks have topped Value stocks. Still, Value is the place to achieve income. The current yield on the iShares Russell 1000 Value Index ETF is 2.2%, compared to the current yield on the iShares Russell 1000 Growth Index ETF of 1.1%. As well, sometimes the risk profile favors Value. For the past five years, the standard deviation of monthly returns for Value stocks has been 2.83%, compared to the standard deviation of monthly returns for Growth stocks of 2.93%. When we look for Value at Argus, we look for low valuations on metrics such as price/earnings, price/sales, price/book, yield and price/cash flow. But we also look for companies with clean balance sheets, high levels of profitability and cash flow generation capability, and experienced management teams.

Growth stocks may be outperforming in 2018 -- but in an environment of historically low interest rates, many investors are still searching for high levels of income, which can often be found in Value stocks. Over the years, the performance record has favored Growth. Since 2003, the Russell 1000 Growth Index has climbed 423%, compared to an advance of 278% for the Russell 1000 Value Index. In 10 of the 15 years of this period, Growth stocks have topped Value stocks. Still, Value is the place to achieve income. The current yield on the iShares Russell 1000 Value Index ETF is 2.2%, compared to the current yield on the iShares Russell 1000 Growth Index ETF of 1.1%. As well, sometimes the risk profile favors Value. For the past five years, the standard deviation of monthly returns for Value stocks has been 2.83%, compared to the standard deviation of monthly returns for Growth stocks of 2.93%. When we look for Value at Argus, we look for low valuations on metrics such as price/earnings, price/sales, price/book, yield and price/cash flow. But we also look for companies with clean balance sheets, high levels of profitability and cash flow generation capability, and experienced management teams.

Stocks closed mostly lower on Thursday. The Federal Reserve announced that it will maintain the current interest rate for now, but expects more interest rate hikes in the near future. Energy stocks were down on lower crude oil prices. The Dow rose 0.04%, the S&P fell 0.3%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.5%. Crude oil fell 1% to about $61 per barrel, while gold traded near $1225 per ounce.