U.S. stocks bounced back after Wednesday's decline. However, regional banks are down following New York Community Bancorp's dismal results. Initial jobless claims for the week ending January 27 were 224,000, up 9,000 from the previous week's revised level. Ongoing unemployment was 1,898,000, an increase of 70,000 from the previous weeks revised 1,833,000. The Dow rose 0.1%, the S&P 500 was up 0.3% and the Nasdaq gained 0.4%. Crude oil traded above $76 per barrel, while gold rose $7.50 to trade near $2075 per ounce.

Sustainable Impact Investing, or ESG investing, is gaining traction not only with Argus Research clients but also with the global investment community. BlackRock CEO Lawrence Fink, who oversees approximately $9 trillion in assets, announced in January 2020 that his firm would be investing in companies that are making progress on sustainability. He doubled down in his January 2021 letter, calling on company managements to disclose their plans for making their businesses "compatible with a net-zero economy" by 2050. As assets have flowed in over the past 40 years, Sustainable Impact Investing has evolved. The discipline, originally known as Socially Responsible Investing, focused at first on excluding companies that conducted business in South Africa, or participated in industries such as tobacco, alcohol, and firearms. Performance of these initial strategies lagged, and the approach has been modified. Now, instead of merely identifying industries to avoid, the discipline promotes "sustainable" business practices across all industries that can have an "impact" on global issues such as climate, hunger, poverty, disease, shelter, and workers' rights.

Sustainable Impact Investing, or ESG investing, is gaining traction not only with Argus Research clients but also with the global investment community. BlackRock CEO Lawrence Fink, who oversees approximately $9 trillion in assets, announced in January 2020 that his firm would be investing in companies that are making progress on sustainability. He doubled down in his January 2021 letter, calling on company managements to disclose their plans for making their businesses "compatible with a net-zero economy" by 2050. As assets have flowed in over the past 40 years, Sustainable Impact Investing has evolved. The discipline, originally known as Socially Responsible Investing, focused at first on excluding companies that conducted business in South Africa, or participated in industries such as tobacco, alcohol, and firearms. Performance of these initial strategies lagged, and the approach has been modified. Now, instead of merely identifying industries to avoid, the discipline promotes "sustainable" business practices across all industries that can have an "impact" on global issues such as climate, hunger, poverty, disease, shelter, and workers' rights.

Management's ability to "raise guidance" can often be a catalyst for market-beating returns in the quarters ahead. The third-quarter earnings season is wrapping up, with blended earnings (actual results and the consensus for those still to report) showing a 6.3% gain, year-over-year, according to Refinitiv. That is considerably better than the 1.0% expected at the start of the earnings period, and should be enough to end the "earnings recession" that investors have endured over the past three quarters. Propelling the 3Q outperformance were strong gains in Communication Services, up 46%, while Energy again (like last quarter) is performing the worst, down 33%. Our analysts are always on the lookout for companies that boost their outlooks during earnings season. Here is an initial list of BUY-rated companies in Argus Coverage at which management raised guidance or increased its outlook during the 3Q23 EPS reporting season.

Stock rose on Thursday on optimism that rate hikes may be over. The Commerce Department said that in September, new orders for U.S. manufactured goods rose 2.8% to $601.5 billion following a 1.0% increase in August. On Friday morning, investors will be looking at the jobs report for October. On the earnings front, Apple reported after the bell. Although the company beat consensus it issued a cautious outlook. The S&P 500 rose 1.9%, the Dow 1.7% and the Nasdaq was up 1.8%. Crude oil rose nearly 1% to $82 per barrel, while gold traded near $1991 per ounce.

Stocks fell on Tuesday morning on continued concerns about 'higher for longer' interest rates and a looming federal government shutdown. Housing price data was stronger than expected. The Federal Housing Finance Agency said that home purchase prices rose 4.6% from the prior year in July, up from 3.2% in June. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller home price index also rose on a year-over-year basis in July, though the increase was a more modest 1%. Consumer confidence fell for a second straight month. The Conference Board said that its consumer confidence index fell to 103.0 in September, down from 108.7 in August and below the consensus forecast of 105.5. The Dow fell 0.8%, the S&P 1.0%, and the Nasdaq 1.1%. Crude oil rose slightly to $90 per barrel, while gold traded near $1927 per ounce.

The growth prospects for the artificial intelligence (AI) universe are impressive, yet hard to determine. Argus has derived a model of the size and scope of the global AI industry, based on our coverage of the major publicly-traded players and most of the mid-tier players, along with our industry analysts' knowledge of private players. We estimate the global AI industry amounted to about $90-$100 billion in 2021, and expect it to grow at a 40% CAGR through 2030, when it is expected to reach $1.8 trillion in annual revenue. We expect annual growth to decelerate from the low- to mid-40% range in immediate years to the mid-30% range for years toward the end of the survey period. But determining a realistic estimate for the size of the industry is a challenge. Even for an industry that promises to redefine measuring tools, there is no measurable unit of AI output comparable to barrels of oil or tons of steel. As well, much of AI development occurs within labs and at universities, and the output is measured in tangible progress against objectives, not dollars or units of output. In the corporate world, nearly all the AI pure-play companies service micro-niches, have little measurable revenue, and are deeply unprofitable. For our list this week, we take a big picture view of three areas where AI applications are developing. In Big Tech, we believe much of the revenue and most of the profitability from AI is attributable to several giant U.S. and a few international companies that operate primarily in growth sectors such as Technology, Communication Services, and Consumer Discretionary. Next, we note that China is also a hub of AI development, with companies like Alibaba, Baidu, and Tencent (though Argus follows only Alibaba). Finally, Niche Tech has significant AI activity among companies pursuing advances in IoT, vehicle electrification, autonomous driving, automation and connectivity solutions for manufacturing, warehousing, construction, and other areas. Here are featured companies followed by Argus in those three categories.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

August has been rough for stocks. The markets are down from their highs, although the year overall has been upbeat for stocks -- especially compared to a dismal 2022. The continued stress on the economy from higher interest rates, and questions about whether the Federal Reserve is done raising them, have weighed on valuations. Most economists are not convinced that the recession question has been answered. While there are strengths in the economy -- like the labor market and consumer spending -- inflation indicators inched up last month. The uncertain environment has impacted small-caps, mid-caps, large-caps, and even mega-caps. There is a wide range in data that shows how sectors are weathering this climate, with Communication Services up nearly 40% year-to-date but Consumer Staples down 2% for the same time period. In our opinion, some solid companies with strong financials have been oversold. For our list this week, we identified 10 BUY-rated large- or mega-cap companies across numerous industries that are selling at attractive valuations (more than 20% below their 52-week highs). They are listed according to company size, with the largest first.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

The major indices finished slightly lower on Thursday as investors weighed a new round of earnings reports from Qualcomm, PayPal, and other major companies. Apple and Amazon also reported above-consensus sales and earnings after the close. On the employment front, first-time claims for state unemployment benefits rose by 6,000 to a seasonally adjusted 227,000 for the week ended July 29, in line with the Reuters consensus forecast. Continuing claims rose by 21,000 to 1.7 million. The data came ahead of the government's July employment report on Friday morning. The consensus calls for 200,000 new payroll jobs, down from 209,000 in June, and a steady unemployment rate of 3.6%. The Dow fell 0.19%, the S&P 0.25%, and the Nasdaq 0.10%. Crude oil rose nearly 3% to $82 per barrel, while gold fell $6 to $1969 per ounce.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

Stocks fell on Thursday morning amid continued concerns about the health of regional banks and the approaching debt ceiling deadline. The losses extended the selloff on Thursday, when the Fed raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to the 5.0%-5.25% range. Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled that the Fed would pause rate hikes for now as it assessed the impact of its rate hike campaign, but rejected the view that the central bank would cut rates later this year. The Dow fell 1.1%, the S&P 0.7%, and the Nasdaq 0.4%. Crude oil traded near $69 per barrel, while gold rose $19 to $2056 per ounce.

We recently raised our rating on the Technology sector to Over-Weight from Market-Weight. As interest rates start to fall, IT demand in enterprise and data center markets is holding up. And mounting interest in ChatGPT could herald the age of AI, which could be a huge industry driver. Over the long term, we expect the Technology sector to benefit from pervasive digitization across the economy, greater acceptance of transformative technologies, and the development of the Internet of Things (IoT). Healthy company and sector fundamentals are also positive. For individual companies, these include high cash levels, low debt, and broad international business exposure. The sector is outperforming the market thus far in 2023, with a gain of 12.4%. Tech underperformed the market in 2022, with a loss of 28.9%, and outperformed in 2021, with a gain of 33.4%. The P/E ratio on projected 2023 earnings is 23, above the market multiple. Earnings are expected to grow 14.5% in 2023 after having fallen 3.3% in 2022. Earnings rose 37.9% in 2021 and 7.7% in 2020. The sector's debt ratios are below the market average, as is the average dividend yield of 0.5%. Here is how we use our analysts' Technology sector ideas in our Focus List and Model Portfolios.

Stocks fell on Monday morning as investors reassessed the outlook for further Fed rate hikes in the wake of the hot January employment report released on Friday. On the earnings front, Tyson Foods fell 4% after the meat producer reported disappointing fiscal 1Q earnings, driven by higher livestock costs and declining margins. Dell Technologies fell more than 3% after announcing the latest in a series of job cuts by major Tech companies. The Dow fell 0.2%, the S&P 0.5%, and the Nasdaq 0.6%. Crude oil traded near $73.50 per barrel, while gold rose $5 to $1881 per ounce.

On Friday morning, investors will be focused on the Labor Department's October employment report. The current Reuters consensus calls for the addition of 200,000 payroll jobs, down from 263,000 in September, and a slightly higher unemployment rate of 3.6%. Stocks fell sharply on Thursday amid continued concerns about rate hikes and a potential recession, a day after Fed Chairman Powell said that rates at the end of the cycle could be higher than previously expected. The Dow fell 0.46%, the S&P 1.06%, and the Nasdaq 1.73%. Crude oil fell more than 2% to $88 per barrel, while gold fell $18 to $1632 per ounce.

Economic trends in China bear watching closely, in our view, for many reasons. China is a $17 trillion economy and represents about 18% of the $94 trillion global economy. As such, China is a critical contributor to overall global economic growth, even if it "only" grows 5%-6% per year. However, this year, global forecasters are expecting a slowdown in growth to 3.3% -- a rare below-emerging-market-average rate. Why? For one thing, the country's zero-COVID policy has shaken confidence among consumers; tourism is down and homebuilding has slumped. In the Industrial segment of the economy, while supply chains have been disrupted, China's export business continues to expand. But there is concern down the road among export partners that China may borrow a page from Vladimir Putin's playbook and look to take over Taiwan. Tensions are high as military demonstrations proceed. Over the long run, China appears to be an important growth market with a population that is growing wealthier. U.S. companies and investors want access to this market on fair terms. We group China in the International segment of the equity asset class. In our asset-allocation models, we target 2%-5% exposure to this group. That exposure can be achieved through regional ETFs, as well as through U.S.-based companies that depend on China for growth.

Stocks rose on Thursday morning after paring early losses. GDP data was weaker than expected. The Commerce Department reported that the U.S. economy contracted at a 0.9% annualized rate in 2Q, below the Bloomberg consensus, which had called for a gain of 0.4%. The second straight quarterly decline in GDP, after a 1.6% drop in 1Q, met a common definition of recession. The Dow rose 0.7%, the S&P 0.8%, and the Nasdaq 0.6%. Crude oil rose 1% to $98 per barrel, while gold fell 2% to $1752 per ounce.

Stocks were mixed on Tuesday morning as investors weighed new trade data and news that China would reduce quarantine times for inbound travelers. The Commerce Department said that the U.S. trade deficit narrowed by 2.2% to $104.3 billion in May. The narrower deficit reflected strong growth in exports and should be a positive for 2Q GDP. Inventories also rose at both the wholesale and retail levels, pointing to a potential slowdown in demand. The Dow rose 0.3%, the S&P was flat, and the Nasdaq fell 0.6%. Crude oil traded near $111 per barrel, while gold rose $2 to $1827 per ounce.

Stocks were mixed on Tuesday morning as investors weighed new trade data and news that China would reduce quarantine times for inbound travelers. The Commerce Department said that the U.S. trade deficit narrowed by 2.2% to $104.3 billion in May. The narrower deficit reflected strong growth in exports and should be a positive for 2Q GDP. Inventories also rose at both the wholesale and retail levels, pointing to a potential slowdown in demand. The Dow rose 0.3%, the S&P was flat, and the Nasdaq fell 0.6%. Crude oil traded near $111 per barrel, while gold rose $2 to $1827 per ounce.

April was a brutal month for stocks, with few equities escaping unscathed. The S&P 500 fell almost 11%, the Nasdaq and the QQQs both plummeted 15.6%, the DJIA fell 7%, the Russell 2000 tumbled 12.6%, and the S&P MidCap 400 dropped 10%. It was the worst month for the Nasdaq and QQQs since October 2008.

Stocks fell on Thursday morning, ending several days of recovery after a weak earnings report from Facebook owner Meta Platforms. FB shares dropped 25% after the company reported lower-than-expected 4Q earnings and issued disappointing first-quarter guidance. Other Communication Services stocks also fell sharply, sending the sector down nearly 5%. The Dow fell 0.8%, the S&P 1.4%, and the Nasdaq 2.2%. Crude oil rose to $89 per barrel, while gold fell $3 to $1807 per ounce.

Stocks were mixed on Thursday morning, steadying after the sharp Fed-driven selloff on Wednesday. Manufacturing data was strong. The Commerce Department said that U.S. factory orders rose 1.6% in November, up from 1.2% in October and above the Reuters consensus forecast of 1.5%. On the employment front, first-time claims for state unemployment benefits rose to 207,000 for the week ended January 1, up from 200,000 a week earlier and above the consensus forecast of 195,000. The Dow fell 0.3%, the S&P was flat, and the Nasdaq rose 0.2%. Crude oil rose more than 2% to near $80 per barrel, while gold fell $35 to $1790 per ounce.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

We noted last week that long-term measures of market breadth remain supportive of higher stock prices, while intermediate-term breadth has improved and is neutral/mildly bullish. And then along came the new coronavirus variant to knock the market off its pins.

Stocks were mixed on Thursday morning, a day after the Federal Reserve announced the start of its $15 billion per month tapering program. Fed Chair Jerome Powell also indicated that the Fed would prefer to wait for the completion of the tapering plan, and further improvement in the labor market, before considering higher interest rates. The Dow fell 0.2%, the S&P rose 0.3%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.6%. Crude oil rose slightly to $81 per barrel, while gold traded near $1796 per ounce.

The Technology sector started slowly in 2021 as investors focused on value stocks. But the sector has come on strong in recent months (up 22% year-to-date) and now is outperforming the market (up 20.7%) as well as value sectors such as Consumer Staples (+8%), Utilities (+10%), Materials (+17%), and Industrials (+18%). The sector is the largest in the U.S. market and now accounts for more than 28% of the S&P 500. Over the long term, we expect the sector to benefit from pervasive digitization across the economy, greater acceptance of transformative technologies, and the development of the Internet of Things (IoT). Healthy company and sector fundamentals are also positive. For individual companies, these include high cash levels, low debt, and broad international business exposure. We have an Over-Weight ranking on the Tech sector and think investors should look to allocate up to 30% of their diversified portfolios to the group. Here is how we use our analysts' Tech sector ideas in our Focus List and Model Portfolios.

On July 6, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) reached our target in the high $70s/barrel when it hit an intraday high of $77. That was followed by a sharp reversal, with WTI closing at $73.37 the same day. After that, crude fell to $65 on July 20, rallied to $74.23, and closed yesterday back down near $68.

Stocks rose on Thursday morning, a day after the Federal Reserve signaled that it would wait for further economic recovery before paring back its $120 billion per month bond-buying program. The Commerce Department reported that the U.S. economy expanded at a 6.5% annualized rate in 2Q, up from 6.3% in 1Q, but well below the Bloomberg consensus forecast of 8.4%. The Dow rose 0.5%, the S&P 0.5%, and the Nasdaq 0.4%. Crude oil rose 1% to $73 per barrel, while gold traded near $1829 per ounce.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

The Labor Department's Nonfarm Payrolls report for May 2021 will be released on Friday, June 4, 2021. This report is always eagerly awaited by investors, and Friday's may be even more important than usual. That's because the April report was so disappointing, raising questions about whether the U.S. economy's recovery from COVID-19 was stalling. Recall that the U.S. workforce added only 220,000 jobs in April, below the recent trend (650k) and below expectations (900k). Meanwhile, the unemployment rate in April ticked higher to 6.1%. The market is waiting to see whether the April data was an outlier in a positive trend, or the start of a slowdown. We are inclined to think that April was an outlier. For one thing, another employment measure, the ADP payroll report for April, indicated that employers added 742,000 jobs -- the most since last fall. For another, in recent weeks, unemployment claims have continued to fall (to 406,000 from 547,000 a month ago). As the U.S. vaccination count rises and states re-open their economies, service workers are being called back to their jobs. Our forecast calls for a May rebound in payrolls to 650,000.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

Stocks rose modestly on Thursday morning, but gave up strong early gains amid a range of first-quarter earnings reports and new GDP and employment data. Investors also weighed President Biden's ambitious plans for new spending on families and education. The Commerce Department said that the U.S. economy expanded at a 6.4% annualized rate in the first quarter, above the Reuters consensus forecast of 6.1% and up from 4.3% growth in the fourth quarter. The Dow rose 0.1%, the S&P 0.3%, and the Nasdaq 0.1%. Crude oil rose 1.5% to $65 per barrel, while gold traded near $1768 per ounce.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

The Labor Department's nonfarm payrolls report for March will be released on April 2, 2021. This is odd, as the stock market is closed for Good Friday that day. The headlines on the jobs front have started to brighten a bit, as COVID-19 vaccines have been distributed and administered, but progress back to full employment remains slow. Last month, employers added 379,000 jobs, including 355,000 in leisure and hospitality. We look for the jobs data to continue improving in the months ahead. Last week, unemployment claims fell sharply, to 684,000 from 781,000 in the prior week, and continuing claims dropped to 4.1 million from 4.4 million a month ago. Our forecast calls for payroll growth of 550,000 in March. The report will also include the latest reading on unemployment, which declined last month to 6.2% from 6.3%. Part of the challenge for the Federal Reserve and Biden administration will be to not only lower this rate toward 4.0% but also bring back workers who have either retired or become discouraged and left the workforce. The labor participation rate is a low 61.4%, versus a 10-year average of 65%.

Stocks rose strongly on Thursday amid optimism over the administration's stimulus plan and improving employment data. The Labor Department reported that first-time claims for state unemployment benefits fell to 712,000, below the consensus forecast and the lowest reading since early November. Continuing claims of 4.144 million also fell from the prior week and came in below the consensus estimate. New coronavirus cases continued to fall in the U.S. and vaccine news was positive. Pfizer/BioNTech said that they would exceed their vaccine production target by as much as 20% this year, and reported that their shot was 94% effective in preventing asymptomatic infection. The EU also approved the Johnson & Johnson vaccine. The Dow rose 0.58%, the S&P 1.04%, and the Nasdaq 2.52%. Crude oil rose to $66 per barrel, while gold rose slightly to $1723 per ounce.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

Stocks rose on Thursday amid better-than-expected economic data and earnings reports from a range of major companies. New coronavirus cases in the U.S. continued to decline, and congressional Democrats moved closer to passing the Biden administration's $1.9 trillion stimulus package, with or without Republican support. On the employment front, first-time unemployment benefit claims fell to 779,000 and continuing claims fell to 4.592 million, both down from the prior week and below consensus forecasts. The data came ahead of the government's January employment report on Friday morning. The Reuters consensus calls for the addition of 50,000 new payroll jobs after a decline of 140,000 in December. The Dow rose 1.08%, the S&P 1.09%, and the Nasdaq 1.23%. Crude oil rose to more than $56 per barrel, while gold dropped $42 to $1793 per ounce.

The Labor Department's nonfarm payrolls report for December 2020 will be released on January 8. The news has been good the last few months, as approximately 12 million jobs were created from May through November, and initial unemployment claims have declined from an average of 5 million per week in April to 840,000 per week in December. But the recovery is not complete, as gains have not made up for losses in March and April, when the economy shed a total of 22.2 million jobs. Unemployment claims have been ticking higher in recent weeks, and continuing claims are about 5.5 million. That's out of a total workforce of 160 million. Looking at the trends, jobs growth has slowed since the summer, as numerous states are re-tightening restrictions as COVID-19 cases surge in the winter. Our forecast for nonfarm payrolls growth for December is 250,000. That's in line with the November level and would contribute to reducing the unemployment rate, assuming the labor-force participation rate remains steady.

Weekly data from Vickers Stock Research offered cautious sentiment results for multiple weeks starting in mid-November. Sentiment then moved in a more-benign direction last week, but now has pivoted bearishly again.

The Technology sector has led the market recovery from the COVID-19 depths of March 2020. Through November 20, the sector was up 31% for the year, compared to a 10% gain for the S&P 500. The Tech sector is the largest in the U.S. market and now accounts for more than 27% of the S&P 500. Over the long term, we expect the Tech sector to benefit from pervasive digitization across the economy, greater acceptance of transformative technologies, and the development of the Internet of Things (IoT): Healthy company and sector fundamentals are also positive. For individual companies, these include high cash levels, low debt, and broad international business exposure. We have an Over-Weight ranking on the Tech sector and think investors should look to allocate up to 30% of their diversified portfolios to the group. Here is how we use our Tech sector ideas from our analysts in our Focus List and Model Portfolios.