Monday Tee Up: The Fed's Dot Plot

U.S. equities rallied on Thursday morning following the Fed's decision to hold rates steady and positive economic data. Last week's initial jobless claims came in at 202,000, down from 220,000 in the week prior. The Street had been expecting that new claims would remain at 220,000. U.S. retail and food services sales rose 0.3% in November according the U.S. Census Bureau's advance reading. Excluding automobiles and parts, sales rose 0.2%; excluding gasoline stations, sales rose 0.6%. The leading sales categories were food services and drinking places (+1.6%), sporting goods, hobby, music and book shops (+1.3%), health and personal care (+0.9%), and furniture stores (+0.9%). Sales fell in gasoline stations (-2.9%), electronics and appliances (-1.1%), and building material stores (-0.4%). The Dow rose 0.2%, the S&P 500 gained 0.3% and the Nasdaq was up 0.2%. Crude oil traded near $72 per barrel, while gold rose $57 to $2055 per ounce.

Proper leadership for the stock market is one of the most important indicators of the health of a bull market. This takes on even more importance because the major indices are cap-weighted, with some industries and sectors heavily weighted in the indices and others not at all. In addition, the psyche of a bull market reflects which stocks are leading. Are they higher-beta names with strong growth revenues and EPS prospects that can add some real alpha to a portfolio? Or are they lower-beta names, where slow and steady is the name of the game.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

Stocks edged lower on Tuesday morning as investors awaited new developments in the debt ceiling standoff. Business activity data was better than expected. S&P Global reported that its flash U.S. composite PMI index, which includes both manufacturing and services, rose to 54.5 in May, up from a final reading of 53.4 in April and above the consensus forecast of 53.0. On the earnings front, home improvement retailer Lowe's reported mixed first-quarter results, but lowered its full-year sales and EPS forecasts. The Dow fell 0.2%, the S&P 0.2%, and the Nasdaq 0.3%. Crude oil traded near $73 per barrel, while gold fell $5 to $1972 per ounce.

February Fumble

Stocks fell on Wednesday morning amid uncertainty about the outcome of the midterm elections, as the Republicans' 'red wave' in Congress failed to materialize. Disney shares dropped nearly 12% after the company reported disappointing fiscal 4Q earnings, driven in part by sharp losses in its video streaming services. The Dow fell 0.8%, the S&P 0.8%, and the Nasdaq 1.1%. Crude oil fell more than 2% to $87 per barrel, while gold traded at $1716 per ounce.

Monday Tee-Up: Inflation, GDP, Retail Earnings, Jackson Hole

Sentiment is increasingly bearish, from market professionals to small investors. The five-day CBOE equity-only put/call (P/C) jumped to 0.76 on May 12, the highest reading since the correction started. The good news, though, is that it is not near prior peaks during corrections/bear markets (when it has reached 0.85 to over 1.00). The smallest option traders spent 30% or more of their volume buying put options to open. They also spent more on put premiums than on call premiums. Both measures are very rare -- and most times when this happens, the market is higher over the next year.

West Texas Intermediate crude oil (WTI) popped back to $92.83/barrel on February 21 after pulling back to $87.46 on February 18, as the Russian/Ukraine situation remains volatile. If higher interest rates and the prospect of war overseas is not enough for the stock market, higher prices for gasoline, heating oil, and natural gas are certainly weighing on some low- to middle-income consumers. It's ironic that as the pandemic seems to be winding down, stock markets have 'bigger' worries to consider.

10 Investment Themes for 2022: Part 3 of 3

The stock market moved higher last week, with Tech stocks outperforming blue chips by a sizeable margin. During Friday's session, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 243 points, or 0.69%. The S&P 500 was up 0.88%, and the Nasdaq Composite was up 1.23%. For the week, the DJIA was up 336 points, or 0.96%, the S&P 500 was up 1.52%, and the Nasdaq Composite was up 2.82%. Year-to-date, the DJIA is up 15.84%, the S&P 500 is up 20.06%, and the Nasdaq Composite is up 17.39%.

The trading week ended June 18 featured a Fed meeting in which nothing changed (yet everything changed), and the stock market suffered its worst five days since January. The pain was distributed unevenly, with the DJIA dropping 3.5%, the S&P 500 down 1.91%, and the Nasdaq off only 0.3%.

This edition features e-commerce after the pandemic; opportunity in salt; trucking demand; and notes from Curaleaf and new coverage Hexcel and AUB Group.

Vaccine Optimism: Our Monthly Survey of the Economy, Interest Rates, and Markets

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Mid Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. The market capitalization range for U.S. mid-caps typically falls between $1 billion and $8 billion and represents 20% of the total capitalization of the U.S. equity market.

Small- and mid-cap stocks (SMID stocks) surged in the past quarter. They also have outperformed large-caps over the past 12 months and may be in a better position to generate market-beating returns going forward. For one thing, SMID companies tend to focus on domestic markets, so their businesses could be poised to rebound more quickly once COVID-19 vaccines are widely distributed and the economy recovers. As well, the prices of SMID stocks are generally lower than the prices of large-caps. While SMID stocks can be risky, diversified investors look to have exposure to small- and mid-caps based on the long-term performance record. We estimate that 20%-25% of the U.S. stock market's capitalization is comprised of SMID stocks. Investors used to use a $2 billion market-cap threshold to define a small-cap stock and a $10 billion threshold for a mid-cap. We note that the Russell 2000 index now includes numerous companies with market capitalizations above $15 billion. For our purposes, we use a threshold of $20 billion to define a SMID stock.

Small- and mid-cap stocks (SMID stocks) surged in the past quarter. They also have outperformed large-caps over the past 12 months and may be in a better position to generate market-beating returns going forward. For one thing, SMID companies tend to focus on domestic markets, so their businesses could be poised to rebound more quickly once COVID-19 vaccines are widely distributed and the economy recovers. As well, the prices of SMID stocks are generally lower than the prices of large-caps. While SMID stocks can be risky, diversified investors look to have exposure to small- and mid-caps based on the long-term performance record. We estimate that 20%-25% of the U.S. stock market's capitalization is comprised of SMID stocks. Investors used to use a $2 billion market-cap threshold to define a small-cap stock and a $10 billion threshold for a mid-cap. We note that the Russell 2000 index now includes numerous companies with market capitalizations above $15 billion. For our purposes, we use a threshold of $20 billion to define a SMID stock.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Mid Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. The market capitalization range for U.S. mid-caps typically falls between $1 billion and $8 billion and represents 20% of the total capitalization of the U.S. equity market.

Growth stocks may be outperforming value, again, in 2020. But in an environment of historically low interest rates (and with the coronavirus and economic shutdown seemingly poised to keep them low for a long time), many investors are still searching for high levels of income, which can often be found in value stocks. Progress on COVID-19 vaccines has given a lift to some of the cyclical companies (energy companies and regional banks) that have lagged in recent quarters, and value stocks have kept up the pace with growth stocks in the past quarter. The current yield on the iShares Russell 1000 Value Index ETF is 2.5%, compared to the 1.0% current yield on the iShares Russell 1000 Growth Index ETF. This is not unimportant, as the current yield on the 10-year Treasury bond is 0.95%.

Stocks rose modestly on Thursday morning amid new employment and services sector data. The Labor Department reported that first-time claims for state unemployment benefits fell to 712,000 for the week ended November 28, down from 787,000 a week earlier and below the Bloomberg consensus forecast of 775,000. Services sector data slowed for a second straight month. The Institute for Supply Management said that its nonmanufacturing index fell to 55.9 in November, down from 56.6 in October and below the consensus forecast of 56.0. The Dow rose 0.5%, the S&P 0.2%, and the Nasdaq 0.3%. Crude oil rose slightly to $45 per barrel, while gold traded near $1829 per ounce.

Stocks rose modestly on Thursday morning amid new employment and services sector data. The Labor Department reported that first-time claims for state unemployment benefits fell to 712,000 for the week ended November 28, down from 787,000 a week earlier and below the Bloomberg consensus forecast of 775,000. Services sector data slowed for a second straight month. The Institute for Supply Management said that its nonmanufacturing index fell to 55.9 in November, down from 56.6 in October and below the consensus forecast of 56.0. The Dow rose 0.5%, the S&P 0.2%, and the Nasdaq 0.3%. Crude oil rose slightly to $45 per barrel, while gold traded near $1829 per ounce.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Mid Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. The market capitalization range for U.S. mid-caps typically falls between $1 billion and $8 billion and represents 20% of the total capitalization of the U.S. equity market.

Stocks rose on Thursday as investors weighed mixed economic data and prospects for a fiscal stimulus deal in Washington. However, House Democrats, who have lowered their proposal to $2.2 trillion, and the White House, which has offered $1.6 trillion, remain far apart on the scope of any package. Meanwhile, major companies such as Disney and American Airlines prepared for substantial layoffs, and the Labor Department again reported high weekly unemployment claims, though both first-time and continuing claims fell from the prior week. The Dow rose 0.13%, the S&P 0.53%, and the Nasdaq 1.42%. Crude oil fell below $39 per barrel, while gold rose $15 to $1911 per ounce.

Stocks rose on Thursday as investors weighed mixed economic data and prospects for a fiscal stimulus deal in Washington. However, House Democrats, who have lowered their proposal to $2.2 trillion, and the White House, which has offered $1.6 trillion, remain far apart on the scope of any package. Meanwhile, major companies such as Disney and American Airlines prepared for substantial layoffs, and the Labor Department again reported high weekly unemployment claims, though both first-time and continuing claims fell from the prior week. The Dow rose 0.13%, the S&P 0.53%, and the Nasdaq 1.42%. Crude oil fell below $39 per barrel, while gold rose $15 to $1911 per ounce.

Stocks rose on Thursday as investors weighed mixed economic data and prospects for a fiscal stimulus deal in Washington. However, House Democrats, who have lowered their proposal to $2.2 trillion, and the White House, which has offered $1.6 trillion, remain far apart on the scope of any package. Meanwhile, major companies such as Disney and American Airlines prepared for substantial layoffs, and the Labor Department again reported high weekly unemployment claims, though both first-time and continuing claims fell from the prior week. The Dow rose 0.13%, the S&P 0.53%, and the Nasdaq 1.42%. Crude oil fell below $39 per barrel, while gold rose $15 to $1911 per ounce.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Mid Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. The market capitalization range for U.S. mid-caps typically falls between $1 billion and $8 billion and represents 20% of the total capitalization of the U.S. equity market.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Mid Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. The market capitalization range for U.S. mid-caps typically falls between $1 billion and $8 billion and represents 20% of the total capitalization of the U.S. equity market.

conomic Data, New Infections Send Conflicting Signals

conomic Data, New Infections Send Conflicting Signals

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Mid Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. The market capitalization range for U.S. mid-caps typically falls between $1 billion and $8 billion and represents 20% of the total capitalization of the U.S. equity market.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Mid Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. The market capitalization range for U.S. mid-caps typically falls between $1 billion and $8 billion and represents 20% of the total capitalization of the U.S. equity market.

Large-caps have outperformed over the past 12 months, but small- and mid-caps may be in a better position to generate market-beating returns going forward. For one thing, many smaller companies often are more focused on domestic operations and may not be exposed to the global economic uncertainty caused by the coronavirus. For another, prior to COVID-19, the long-term record favored small-caps over large-caps. From 2003-2019, the Russell 2000 Index had climbed 282%, compared to an advance of 233% for the Russell 1000 Index. In 2020, a relatively weak performance by the Russell 2000 Index has brought the measures more in line for the year-to-date. SP despite risks associated with smaller-cap stocks, diversified investors look to have exposure to small- and mid-caps based on the long-term performance record. We estimate that 15%-20% of the U.S. stock market's capitalization is comprised of small- and mid-cap stocks.

Large-caps have outperformed over the past 12 months, but small- and mid-caps may be in a better position to generate market-beating returns going forward. For one thing, many smaller companies often are more focused on domestic operations and may not be exposed to the global economic uncertainty caused by the coronavirus. For another, prior to COVID-19, the long-term record favored small-caps over large-caps. From 2003-2019, the Russell 2000 Index had climbed 282%, compared to an advance of 233% for the Russell 1000 Index. In 2020, a relatively weak performance by the Russell 2000 Index has brought the measures more in line for the year-to-date. SP despite risks associated with smaller-cap stocks, diversified investors look to have exposure to small- and mid-caps based on the long-term performance record. We estimate that 15%-20% of the U.S. stock market's capitalization is comprised of small- and mid-cap stocks.

New claims for unemployment benefits hit 3,280,000 last week, leagues above the previous record of 695,000, which occurred in 1982. Despite these record-breaking numbers, stocks are rising today as traders are likely, for now, focusing on the economic relief package that unanimously passed in the Senate. Industries trading higher today include Consumer Finance, Diversified Consumer Services, and Electric Utilities. Industries trading lower today include Trading Companies & Distributors, Auto Components, and Automobiles. The VIX is down -4.49 at 59.46 after closing yesterday at 63.95. The Dow rose 3.6%, the S&P 3.0%, and the Nasdaq 2.8%. Crude oil traded near $23.50 per barrel, while gold rose $30 to $1663 per ounce.

New claims for unemployment benefits hit 3,280,000 last week, leagues above the previous record of 695,000, which occurred in 1982. Despite these record-breaking numbers, stocks are rising today as traders are likely, for now, focusing on the economic relief package that unanimously passed in the Senate. Industries trading higher today include Consumer Finance, Diversified Consumer Services, and Electric Utilities. Industries trading lower today include Trading Companies & Distributors, Auto Components, and Automobiles. The VIX is down -4.49 at 59.46 after closing yesterday at 63.95. The Dow rose 3.6%, the S&P 3.0%, and the Nasdaq 2.8%. Crude oil traded near $23.50 per barrel, while gold rose $30 to $1663 per ounce.

Regency Centers is the largest shopping center-focused retail REIT. The company's portfolio includes an interest in 419 properties, which includes 57 million square feet of retail space. The portfolio is geographically diversified with 22 regional offices and no single market representing more than 14% of total company NOI. Regency's retail portfolio is primarily composed of grocery-anchored centers with 80% of properties featuring a grocery anchor and grocery stores representing 20% of annual base rent.

U.S. stocks are largely flat at midday on Friday after giving up early gains. Despite considerable fanfare from the U.S. and China about a phase 1 trade deal, the details of the agreement, which both sides acknowledge must still be captured in official language, remain murky. President Trump said via tweet that new tariffs would not take effect this weekend and that some existing tariffs would be reduced to 7.5% from 15%. Industries doing well today include software, construction materials and electric utilities. Industries trading lower today include building products, trading companies and distributors, and electrical equipment. The VIX is up 0.11 to 13.99. The S&P and the Dow fell 0.1%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.1%. Crude oil rose 1% to near $60 per barrel, while gold rose $9 to $1481 per ounce.

U.S. stocks are largely flat at midday on Friday after giving up early gains. Despite considerable fanfare from the U.S. and China about a phase 1 trade deal, the details of the agreement, which both sides acknowledge must still be captured in official language, remain murky. President Trump said via tweet that new tariffs would not take effect this weekend and that some existing tariffs would be reduced to 7.5% from 15%. Industries doing well today include software, construction materials and electric utilities. Industries trading lower today include building products, trading companies and distributors, and electrical equipment. The VIX is up 0.11 to 13.99. The S&P and the Dow fell 0.1%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.1%. Crude oil rose 1% to near $60 per barrel, while gold rose $9 to $1481 per ounce.