We have three strategic asset-allocation models, based on risk-tolerance: Conservative, Moderate and Aggressive. We make tactical adjustments to the models based on our outlooks for the capital markets. February was a solid month for equity investors, as the S&P 500 advanced 5.3%, compared to a 1.8% decline for the fixed-income benchmark ETF AGG. Looking ahead, our Stock-Bond Barometer model slightly favors bonds over stocks for long-term portfolios, in light of the recent rally in equities. Drilling down into stocks, we are over-weight on large-caps. We favor large-caps for growth exposure and financial strength, while small-caps are selling at historical discounts relative to large-caps and offer value. Internationally, U.S. stocks have outperformed global stocks over the trailing one- and five-year periods. We expect this to continue, given the U.S. market's embrace of the innovative Tech sector. In terms of growth versus value, we anticipate that, over the long term, growth, led by the Tech, Consumer, and Healthcare sectors, will top returns from value, led by Energy, Real Estate and Materials, due to secular and demographic trends. As for the fixed-income segment of a portfolio, we break bonds into four areas: Core, such as the industry benchmark ETF AGG or Treasuries; Inflation-Indexed; Opportunistic, such as securitized debt, corporate debt, high-yield or floating bonds; and Cash. We are focused on Core and Opportunistic. On duration, we recommend a shorter term. Last are alternatives. Given the early stage of the current bull market, we think alternatives are less desirable in the growth portion of our models.

Both the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 hit new highs on inflation data that came in as expected. Other economic data released today included initial jobless claims, which came to 215,000, up from last week's revised 212,000 and ahead of expectations. Ongoing unemployment rose to 1,905,000 from the previous week's revised 1,860,000; that raised the insured unemployment rate by 0.1% to 1.3%. The S&P 500 rose 0.5%, the Nasdaq gained 0.9%, while the Dow fell 0.1%.

For a second week, insider-transaction data from Vickers Stock Research is generating bullish signals. Last week, insider-transaction volume was low as trading restrictions are in place during earnings season. But trades that did occur resulted in bullish insider-sentiment measures, especially open-market transactions (the most meaningful when considering sentiment).

Stocks were mixed on Monday morning, as investors continued to focus on economic weakness in China, rising bond yields, rising energy prices and the Fed's next interest rate decisions. Fed Chair Powell will speak at Jackson Hole, Wyoming on Friday. His comments will be watched closely for signs the Fed may be at or near the end of its restrictive monetary policy. The Dow fell 0.6%, the S&P 500 was nearly flat, and the Nasdaq rose 0.4%. Crude oil rose slightly to $81 per barrel, while gold traded near $1917 per ounce.

Stocks were mixed on Monday morning as investors weighed the takeover of failing First Republic Bank by JPMorgan. JPM shares rose nearly 3% on news of the acquisition. Investors also awaited the Fed's interest rate decision and economic commentary later this week. A 25-basis-point rate hike is widely expected. The Dow rose 0.2%, the S&P rose 0.1%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.2%. Crude oil fell to $75.50 per barrel while gold fell $8 to $1992 per ounce.

Stocks fell sharply on Thursday as investors weighed new inflation, employment, and housing market data. Producer prices rose more than expected, raising concerns about continued aggressive rate hikes, while weak housing starts and building permits showed the impact of high mortgage rates. Meanwhile, weekly unemployment claims pointed to a still strong labor market. The Labor Department said that first-time claims for state unemployment benefits fell by 1,000 to 194,000 for the week ended February 11, below the Reuters consensus forecast of 200,000. The Dow fell 1.26%, the S&P 1.38%, and the Nasdaq 1.78%. Crude oil traded near $78 per barrel, while gold rose $3 to $1848 per ounce.

Stocks fell on Thursday morning, extending yesterday's Fed-driven selloff. On Wednesday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that the central bank still had 'some ways to go' on rate hikes, and that interest rates at the end of the cycle could be higher than previously expected. The comments dashed investor hopes for a quick pivot to diminishing rate hikes. On the earnings front, Qualcomm shares fell sharply after the chipmaker issued much weaker than expected fiscal 1Q23 guidance, citing slower demand for smartphones. The Dow fell 0.5%, the S&P 0.6%, and the Nasdaq 0.5%. Crude oil fell 2% to $88 per barrel, while gold fell $24 to $1626 per ounce.

Recession Barometer: Struggling Consumers, Busy Business Economy

Sentiment continues to get more bearish -- and eventually that will be bullish. The five-day CBOE equity-only put/call (P/C) hit 0.77 on May 12, the highest level since the correction started. Yet that is not near prior peaks during corrections/bear markets (when it ran from 0.85 to over 1.00). The smallest option traders spent 30% or more of their volume buying put options to open. They also spent more on put premiums than on call premiums. Both events are very rare -- and when this happens, the market often moves higher over the next year.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

With the majority of companies having reported fourth-quarter earnings, the volume of weekly insider transactions is returning to normal. Almost 1200 insider buy and sell orders met the criteria for inclusion in the latest Weekly Insider Report from Vickers Stock Research. Still, the current level of activity falls short of the robust volumes at this point in the third-quarter earnings-release cycle -- when more than 2100 trades were placed.

Stocks were mixed on Friday morning following new consumer spending data and earnings reports from Apple and Amazon. The Commerce Department said that U.S. consumer spending rose 0.6% in September, above the Reuters consensus of 0.5% but down from 1.0% growth in August. Apple shares fell 3% after the company posted lower-than-expected fiscal 4Q revenue and warned of continued supply-chain constraints. Amazon also fell following disappointing 3Q results and weaker-than-expected fourth-quarter guidance. The Dow rose 0.2%, the S&P fell 0.1%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.2%. Crude oil traded near $82 per barrel, while gold fell $26 to $1777 per ounce.

Stocks fell on Friday morning amid earnings from a range of major companies and new consumer spending data. The Commerce Department said that U.S. consumer spending rose 1.0% in June, up from a 0.1% decline in May and above the Reuters consensus forecast calling for 0.7% growth. The core personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE) rose 3.5% from the prior year in June, up from 3.4% in May but below the consensus forecast of 3.7%. Amazon shares fell more than 7%, despite strong earnings, on weaker-than-expected 2Q revenue and disappointing sales guidance for the current third quarter. The Dow fell 0.4%, the S&P 0.6%, and the Nasdaq 0.8%. Crude oil traded near $74 per barrel, while gold fell $11 to $1825 per ounce.

Stocks were mixed on Thursday morning following news that the Biden administration would support intellectual property waivers on coronavirus vaccines. Pfizer and Moderna shares were down sharply, though JNJ was flat. On the employment front, the Labor Department said that first-time claims for state unemployment benefits fell to 498,000 for the week ended May 1, down from 590,000 a week earlier and below the Bloomberg consensus of 538,000. The Dow rose 0.4%, the S&P rose 0.1%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.3%. Crude oil fell 1% to $65 per barrel, while gold traded near $1815 per ounce.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

Blue Chips finished the 2/26/2021 week with more selling, although the hardest-hit part of the market (Nasdaq growth stocks) staged a feeble rebound on Friday. The market is not in freefall, but the S&P 500 is down 3.2% from its all-time high of 3,935 reached on 2/12/21. Pullbacks and corrections are commonplace, but this one feels different because of the trend in long rates. Still, investors always say 'this one feels different' until it's forgotten in the next pullback.

This edition features winners and losers after Texas storm; Airbnb's prospects for a travel rebound; Workday approaching our fair value; and notes from Public Storage, Palo Alto Networks, and Republic Services.

Republic Services ranks as the second-largest integrated provider of traditional solid waste services in the United States, operating roughly 189 active landfills and more than 200 transfer stations. The company serves residential, commercial, and industrial end markets. It also runs a sizable recycling operation North America.

Republic Services ranks as the second-largest integrated provider of traditional solid waste services in the United States, operating roughly 189 active landfills and more than 200 transfer stations. The company serves residential, commercial, and industrial end markets. It also runs a sizable recycling operation North America.

While COVID-19 numbers are reaching dangerous levels, there are reasons to believe the economy is better braced against major lockdowns. The healthcare infrastructure is better prepared for what likely will be even higher infection levels post-Thanksgiving. And with vaccines seemingly close to early production, any targeted restrictions are unlikely to trigger as much doom and foreboding as they did in March.

Republic Services ranks as the second-largest integrated provider of traditional solid waste services in the United States, operating roughly 189 active landfills and more than 200 transfer stations. The company serves residential, commercial, and industrial end markets. It also runs a sizable recycling operation North America.

Can Housing Sustain the Broad Economy?

Can Housing Sustain the Broad Economy?

A few weeks ago, at the height of earnings season, we were undertaking our weekly review of insider-transaction data from Vickers Stock Research. Transaction volume was low because many insiders were restricted from trading. We wrote: 'As earnings season draws to a close, trades made by corporate executives, directors and beneficial owners will again play a greater role in our analysis.' As a result, we continued, 'we'll get a better sense of where insider sentiment is headed.'

A few weeks ago, at the height of earnings season, we were undertaking our weekly review of insider-transaction data from Vickers Stock Research. Transaction volume was low because many insiders were restricted from trading. We wrote: 'As earnings season draws to a close, trades made by corporate executives, directors and beneficial owners will again play a greater role in our analysis.' As a result, we continued, 'we'll get a better sense of where insider sentiment is headed.'

Republic Services ranks as the second-largest integrated provider of traditional solid waste services in the United States, operating roughly 195 active landfills and more than 200 transfer stations. The company serves residential, commercial, and industrial end markets. It also runs a sizable recycling operation (about 10% of revenue) in North America.

Stocks fell sharply on Thursday morning amid continued coronavirus uncertainty. However, Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida said that U.S. economic fundamentals remained strong and that it was too soon to tell what impact the coronavirus would have on the economy or interest rate policy. In M&A news, Morgan Stanley said that it would acquire E*Trade Financial in a $13 billion deal. E*Trade shares jumped 24%, while MS fell nearly 4%. The Dow and the S&P were down 1.0%, while the Nasdaq fell 1.4%. Crude oil rose nearly 2% to $54 per barrel, while gold rose $14 to $1626 per ounce.

Stocks fell sharply on Thursday morning amid continued coronavirus uncertainty. However, Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida said that U.S. economic fundamentals remained strong and that it was too soon to tell what impact the coronavirus would have on the economy or interest rate policy. In M&A news, Morgan Stanley said that it would acquire E*Trade Financial in a $13 billion deal. E*Trade shares jumped 24%, while MS fell nearly 4%. The Dow and the S&P were down 1.0%, while the Nasdaq fell 1.4%. Crude oil rose nearly 2% to $54 per barrel, while gold rose $14 to $1626 per ounce.

Six months ago, the financial media panicked when the yield gap (the difference in yields between the 2- and 10-year Treasury notes) narrowed and the yield curve inverted for a day or two. Since then, the gap again has turned positive and appears to be widening, and the yield curve is back in its normal shape. A negative yield gap historically has been a predictor of an economic recession. But not always. In this latest instance, the Federal Reserve was quick to act and lowered short-term rates. At the other end of the yield spectrum, long-term rates had been depressed by heavy demand from foreign investors, many of whom were receiving negative returns by investing in their own sovereign debt. As Europe narrowly avoided a recession and growth in China picked up a bit, long rates have ticked higher. That said, we note that the gap between the two interest rates remains tight on an historical basis. This suggests economic growth may slow in the quarters ahead. Our interest-rate forecasts generally call for stable bond yields over the next few quarters.

Six months ago, the financial media panicked when the yield gap (the difference in yields between the 2- and 10-year Treasury notes) narrowed and the yield curve inverted for a day or two. Since then, the gap again has turned positive and appears to be widening, and the yield curve is back in its normal shape. A negative yield gap historically has been a predictor of an economic recession. But not always. In this latest instance, the Federal Reserve was quick to act and lowered short-term rates. At the other end of the yield spectrum, long-term rates had been depressed by heavy demand from foreign investors, many of whom were receiving negative returns by investing in their own sovereign debt. As Europe narrowly avoided a recession and growth in China picked up a bit, long rates have ticked higher. That said, we note that the gap between the two interest rates remains tight on an historical basis. This suggests economic growth may slow in the quarters ahead. Our interest-rate forecasts generally call for stable bond yields over the next few quarters.

Can Housing Sustain the Broad Economy?

A few weeks ago, at the height of earnings season, we were undertaking our weekly review of insider-transaction data from Vickers Stock Research. Transaction volume was low because many insiders were restricted from trading. We wrote: 'As earnings season draws to a close, trades made by corporate executives, directors and beneficial owners will again play a greater role in our analysis.' As a result, we continued, 'we'll get a better sense of where insider sentiment is headed.'

Stocks fell sharply on Thursday morning amid continued coronavirus uncertainty. However, Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida said that U.S. economic fundamentals remained strong and that it was too soon to tell what impact the coronavirus would have on the economy or interest rate policy. In M&A news, Morgan Stanley said that it would acquire E*Trade Financial in a $13 billion deal. E*Trade shares jumped 24%, while MS fell nearly 4%. The Dow and the S&P were down 1.0%, while the Nasdaq fell 1.4%. Crude oil rose nearly 2% to $54 per barrel, while gold rose $14 to $1626 per ounce.

Six months ago, the financial media panicked when the yield gap (the difference in yields between the 2- and 10-year Treasury notes) narrowed and the yield curve inverted for a day or two. Since then, the gap again has turned positive and appears to be widening, and the yield curve is back in its normal shape. A negative yield gap historically has been a predictor of an economic recession. But not always. In this latest instance, the Federal Reserve was quick to act and lowered short-term rates. At the other end of the yield spectrum, long-term rates had been depressed by heavy demand from foreign investors, many of whom were receiving negative returns by investing in their own sovereign debt. As Europe narrowly avoided a recession and growth in China picked up a bit, long rates have ticked higher. That said, we note that the gap between the two interest rates remains tight on an historical basis. This suggests economic growth may slow in the quarters ahead. Our interest-rate forecasts generally call for stable bond yields over the next few quarters.

We have published our latest version of the Argus Millennial Generation portfolio. This new generation of consumers - the Millennials - has recently become the largest demographic cohort in the country, and this group, with new lifestyle preferences and different career goals, is demanding a new menu of sustainable products and services. The intersection of important Millennial trends - sustainability, healthier living, an entrepreneurial spirit - has resulted in the emergence and growth of numerous companies well suited to the new generation. Many of these companies are expected to be future industry leaders and are included in the dynamic Argus Universe of Coverage. A diversified portfolio, of course, is more than just a list of companies linked to themes. To build the Argus Millennial Generation Portfolio, we applied financial concepts such as industry diversification, income generation, risk reduction and growth at a reasonable price.

The major indices are down at midday on Thursday on reports that China does not expect to finalize a full trade deal with the Trump administration. Fiat Chrysler (FCAU) announced a merger with French automaker Peugeot that will create the world's fourth-largest auto manufacturer. Industries doing well today include Food Products and Interactive Media & Services. Industries showing weakness include Personal Products, Machinery, and Trading Companies & Distributors. The VIX is up 1.03 to 13.36 after the previous close of 12.33. The Dow fell 0.7%, the S&P 0.6%, and the Nasdaq 0.4%. Crude oil traded near $54 per barrel, while gold rose $15 to $1511 per ounce.