We've reported for weeks that the trading activity among corporate insiders in general, but on the tech-heavy Nasdaq in particular, was clearly suggesting that stocks likely had come too far, too fast. Further, insider-sentiment data from Vickers Stock Research left the clear impression that stocks were priced for perfection and vulnerable to events like inflation disappointment, geopolitical turmoil, or less-than-expected corporate earnings. Now, a mix of all those things seem to be in play and stocks are indeed experiencing rough sledding for the first time since about October. Reflecting the forecasting from Vickers, as of this writing the Nasdaq Composite and Nasdaq 100 have slid about 7% from the March 22 highs while the S&P 500 is off about 5%.

In this edition, Fair Isaac's upside fair; Initiating Coverage of GE Vernova; and US cable valuations have tumbled perhaps more than deserved; and Marvell Technology, Tilray Brands, and Yum China.

Value stocks -- a market segment that includes high-yield stocks -- outperformed growth stocks in 2022. That's a recent rarity, as for the past decade-plus, the performance record has favored growth. But the tide turned in 2022. The rollout of COVID-19 vaccines gave a lift to some of the cyclical companies (energy and regional banks) that had lagged in recent quarters, and value stocks outpaced growth stocks that year. While growth stocks have retaken the lead since 2023, the Federal Reserve continues to keep interest rates high to fend off inflation. This could possibly cap multiple expansion for growth companies in coming quarters. In any event, the value sector is the place to achieve income.

Value stocks -- a market segment that includes high-yield stocks -- outperformed growth stocks in 2022. That's a recent rarity, as for more than a decade, the performance record favored growth. Since 2010, the Russell 1000 Growth Index has climbed more than 575%, compared to an advance of almost 200% for the Russell 1000 Value Index. In 10 of the past 13 years, growth stocks have topped value stocks. That hasn't always been the case. In the 2000-2010 decade, including the Great Recession, value stocks were better performers than growth stocks, advancing an admittedly low 8% (but still better than growth, which declined 15% during the decade). Value investors trace their roots to the famous "Security Analysis" textbook, written by Ben Graham, an economics professor at Columbia University. Warren Buffett was one of his students. Why the recent deviation in performance? Several reasons, including changes in the make-up of the economy, growth in intangible assets, and the current level of interest rates. But the tide turned back in 2022, at least for a while, as the rollout of COVID-19 vaccines gave a lift to some of the cyclical companies (energy and regional banks) that had lagged in recent years. While growth stocks have recaptured the lead since 2023, the Federal Reserve continues to keep interest rates high to fend off inflation. This could possibly cap multiple expansion for growth companies in coming quarters. In any event, the value sector is the place to achieve income. The current yield on the iShares Russell 1000 Value Index ETF is 2.0%, compared to the 0.7% current yield on the iShares Russell 1000 Growth Index ETF. For our list this week, we have screened our coverage universe for stocks that are BUY-rated by Argus Research analysts, have an Argus Financial Strength Rating of at least Medium, and have a yield of 3.0% or higher. Here's a baker's dozen that meet the criteria. These stocks are also featured in our High-Yield theme model portfolio.

Stock indices dipped in October 2023, with the S&P 500 falling a sharp 10% off summer highs. Looking at 13F filings of big institutional portfolios, we see that the big guns were busy last quarter taking advantage of that dip. Citadel Advisors went on a buying spree, adding to its $100 billion portfolio across a range of sectors. As did D.E. Shaw, adding to its $67 billion portfolio. Vickers Stock Research, a subsidiary of Argus Research Group, analyzes insider trading and institutional stock ownership. Form 13-Fs, which institutions must file to report their holdings, are due 45 days after the end of calendar quarters and have come in for 4Q24. We review 13Fs of major activists to determine core holdings and new purchases. Activist investing is now less about generating a short-term return and more about achieving long-term returns through an active management/investor partnership. Based on data from Vickers, here are some recent new purchases and key holdings of activist investors, as well as other high-profile money managers.

The stock market blasted off late last week, propelling the S&P 500 to an all-time high (ATH). It has been a long recovery (over two years) for the index, as its last ATH was on January 3, 2022. The Nasdaq 100 and the S&P 100 beat the '500' to new highs, while the S&P 400 is close. The Nasdaq and the NYSE still have work to do to puncture their ATHs from late 2021 and early 2022. The Russell 2000 and S&P 600 are nowhere near all-time highs.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

First Look at 3Q23 Earnings: The Beat Goes On

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

Value stocks -- a market segment that includes high-yield stocks -- outperformed growth stocks in 2022 for the first time since 2016. Indeed, for the past decade, the performance record has favored growth. But the tide turned in 2022. The rollout of COVID-19 vaccines gave a lift to some of the cyclical companies (energy companies and regional banks) that had lagged in recent quarters, and value stocks outpaced growth stocks over the past year. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve continues to lift interest rates to fend off inflation, which could possibly cap multiple expansion for growth companies for a few more quarters. Regardless, the value sector is the place to achieve income. The current yield on the iShares Russell 1000 Value Index ETF is 2.2%, compared to the 0.9% current yield on the iShares Russell 1000 Growth Index ETF. For our High-Yield Theme Model Portfolio, we are seeking stocks with yields of at least 3.0%. This moves us deep into the value segment of the market.

Value stocks -- a market segment that includes high-yield stocks -- outperformed growth stocks in 2022 for the first time since 2016. Indeed, for the past decade, the performance record has favored growth. But the tide turned in 2022. The rollout of COVID-19 vaccines gave a lift to some of the cyclical companies (energy companies and regional banks) that had lagged in recent quarters, and value stocks outpaced growth stocks over the past year. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve continues to lift interest rates to fend off inflation, which could possibly cap multiple expansion for growth companies for a few more quarters. Regardless, the value sector is the place to achieve income. The current yield on the iShares Russell 1000 Value Index ETF is 2.2%, compared to the 0.9% current yield on the iShares Russell 1000 Growth Index ETF. For our High-Yield Theme Model Portfolio, we are seeking stocks with yields of at least 3.0%. This moves us deep into the value segment of the market.

August has been rough for stocks. The markets are down from their highs, although the year overall has been upbeat for stocks -- especially compared to a dismal 2022. The continued stress on the economy from higher interest rates, and questions about whether the Federal Reserve is done raising them, have weighed on valuations. Most economists are not convinced that the recession question has been answered. While there are strengths in the economy -- like the labor market and consumer spending -- inflation indicators inched up last month. The uncertain environment has impacted small-caps, mid-caps, large-caps, and even mega-caps. There is a wide range in data that shows how sectors are weathering this climate, with Communication Services up nearly 40% year-to-date but Consumer Staples down 2% for the same time period. In our opinion, some solid companies with strong financials have been oversold. For our list this week, we identified 10 BUY-rated large- or mega-cap companies across numerous industries that are selling at attractive valuations (more than 20% below their 52-week highs). They are listed according to company size, with the largest first.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

Stocks were mixed on Wednesday morning as investors weighed a new round of earnings reports and awaited the Fed's policy statement and follow-up comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. A 25-basis-point hike is widely expected. On the earnings front, Alphabet shares rose 6% following better-than-expected 2Q results, while Microsoft shares fell, despite strong fiscal 4Q earnings, after the company offered disappointing first-quarter sales guidance. The Dow rose 0.1%, the S&P fell 0.1%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.3%. Crude oil fell slightly to $79.50 per barrel, while gold rose $11 to $1974 per ounce.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

As of this writing, a massive week for tech stocks and the overall market is underway, with earnings reports from GOOGL, MSFT, META, AMZN, TXN, KLAC, NOW, SPOT, KO, PEP, MCD, WHR, UPS, MRK, CAT, CMG, BA,V, MA, FSLR, XOM, and GE. It likely will be the largest market-cap week of the EPS season.

Value stocks -- a market segment that includes high-yield stocks -- outperformed growth stocks in 2022 for the first time since 2016. Indeed, for the past decade, the performance record has favored growth. Since 2010, the Russell 1000 Growth Index has climbed more than 500%, compared to an advance of almost 300% for the Russell 1000 Value Index. In eight of the past 10 years, growth stocks have topped value stocks. That hasn't always been the case. In the 2000-2010 decade, which included two bear markets and the Great Recession, value stocks were better performers than growth stocks, advancing an admittedly low 8% -- but still better than growth, which declined 15% during the decade. Value investors trace their roots to the famous "Security Analysis" textbook, written in 1934 (the year Argus Research was founded) by Ben Graham, an economics professor at Columbia University. Warren Buffett was one of his students. Looking ahead, the rollout of COVID-19 vaccines has given a lift to some of the cyclical companies that have lagged in recent years, and value stocks outpaced growth stocks in the past year. Now, the Federal Reserve is lifting interest rates to fend off inflation, which likely will cap multiple expansion for growth companies. In any event, value is the place to achieve income. The current yield on the iShares Russell 1000 Value Index ETF is 2.2%, compared to the 0.9% current yield on the iShares Russell 1000 Growth Index ETF. For our list this week, we have screened our coverage universe for stocks that are BUY-rated by Argus Research analysts, have a Financial Strength rating of at least Medium, and have a yield of 4.0% or higher. Here's a baker's dozen that meet the criteria.

Value stocks -- a market segment that includes high-yield stocks -- outperformed growth stocks in 2022 for the first time since 2016. Indeed, for the past decade, the performance record has favored growth. But the tide turned in 2022. The rollout of COVID-19 vaccines gave a lift to some of the cyclical companies (energy companies and regional banks) that had lagged in recent quarters, and value stocks outpaced growth stocks over the past year. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve continues to lift interest rates to fend off inflation, which could possibly cap multiple expansion for growth companies for a few more quarters. Regardless, the value sector is the place to achieve income. The current yield on the iShares Russell 1000 Value Index ETF is 2.2%, compared to the 0.9% current yield on the iShares Russell 1000 Growth Index ETF. For our High-Yield Theme Model Portfolio, we are seeking stocks with yields of at least 3.0%. This moves us deep into the value segment of the market.

Rapidly rising inflation 2022 knocked stocks into a bear market. While growth strategies suffered the most, value strategies also declined. Even bond prices were lower last year. Volatility, which has dropped from the highs of 2020, still has not returned to pre-COVID levels. Is it time for investors to cash in their chips? We note that investors exit the stock market at their own peril, as long-term returns from equities consistently have outpaced long-term returns from other asset classes, such as fixed income and cash. As well, those fixed-income returns are from eras when the 10-year Treasury bond yield was much higher than the current 3.5% level. So what's a potential equity strategy for investors amid all the uncertainty? Argus believes that Min Vol is an all-weather strategy that is timely in any investing climate.

Certain major indices are approaching very important chart areas and (as we have said recently) some are very close to completing bullish reversal patterns. That could mean the indices would leave their bear markets behind and enter a new bull market. The S&P 500 (SPX) is not quite there.

Both the potential onset of recession (if the economy is not in one already) and the sharp move higher in interest rates have pulled the foundation out from under the equity market in 2022. Few sectors have been spared, with only the Energy industry in the green on a year-to-date basis. The broad retrenchment has dragged down small-caps, mid-caps, large-caps, and even the mega-caps that had previously pushed stocks to new heights as the economy recovered from the pandemic. In our opinion, some of these world-class companies have been oversold. For our list this week, we have identified 11 BUY-rated large- or mega-cap companies across numerous industries that are selling at attractive valuations and are more than 20% below their 52-week highs.

Monday Tee Up: Earnings, Inflation Data, and GDP

In this edition, P&C insurers face mixed bag, investors urged to bet on Caesars, and a look at European Integrated Oils, and Verizon, Schlumberger, and Tenet healthcare

The broad market selloff on September 13 still feels raw, and the Federal Reserve has left no doubt that it will fight inflation vigorously for as long as it takes. Stocks, and likely many portfolios, are feeling some pain. In volatile times like these, when selling is widespread, a classic investing strategy is to focus on “best in class” stocks. These are the strongest and most-stable stocks in each sector -- and by looking across sectors, diversification can also be achieved. To get our list this week, we ran multiple screens. We started with the Argus Min-Vol theme model portfolio. As the name suggests, that portfolio includes companies that likely can best withstand market fluctuations. We then shortlisted the group by also screening for financial strength and dividend yield. And, finally, we picked one stock from each of the 11 S&P sectors. The following stocks are our Best in Class for Safety recommendations for September 2022, and all of them currently carry an Argus BUY rating.

Value stocks -- a market segment that includes high-yield stocks -- are outperforming growth stocks in 2022 for the first time since 2016. Indeed, for the past decade, the performance record has favored growth. Since 2010, the Russell 1000 Growth Index has climbed more than 600%, compared to an advance of 300% for the Russell 1000 Value Index. In nine of the past 10 years, growth stocks have topped value stocks. That wasn't always the case. In the 2000-2010 decade, which included two bear markets and the Great Recession, value stocks were better performers than growth stocks, advancing an admittedly low 8% (but still better than growth, which declined 15% during the decade). Value investors trace their roots to the famous "Security Analysis" textbook, written by Ben Graham, an economics professor at Columbia University. Warren Buffett was one of his students. Looking ahead, the roll-out of COVID-19 vaccines has given a lift to some of the cyclical companies (energy companies and regional banks) that have lagged in recent quarters, and value stocks have kept up the pace with growth stocks in the past year. Now, the Federal Reserve is lifting interest rates to fend off inflation, which will likely cap multiple expansion for growth companies. In any event, value is the place to achieve income. The current yield on the iShares Russell 1000 Value Index ETF is 2.1%, compared to the 0.8% current yield on the iShares Russell 1000 Growth Index ETF. For our list this week, we have screened our coverage universe for stocks that are BUY-rated at Argus Research, have an Argus Financial Strength rating of at least Medium, and have a yield of 4.0% or higher. Here's a baker's dozen that meet the criteria.

Value stocks -- a market segment that includes high-yield stocks -- are outperforming growth stocks in 2022 for the first time since 2016. Indeed, for the past decade, the performance record has favored growth. In nine of the past 10 years, growth stocks have topped value stocks. But the tide may be turning. The rollout of COVID-19 vaccines has given a lift to some of the cyclical companies (energy companies and regional banks) that have lagged in recent quarters, and value stocks have kept up the pace with growth stocks in the past year. Now, the Federal Reserve lifting interest rates to fend off inflation, which will likely cap multiple expansion for growth companies. Regardless, the value sector is the place to achieve income. The current yield on the iShares Russell 1000 Value Index ETF is 2.1%, compared to the 0.8% current yield on the iShares Russell 1000 Growth Index ETF. For our High-Yield Theme Model Portfolio, we are seeking stocks with yields of at least 3.0%. This moves us deep into the value segment of the market.

Rapidly rising inflation in 2022 has knocked the stock market into a bear market. While growth strategies have suffered the most, value strategies also have declined. Even year-to-date bond prices are lower. Volatility, which has dropped from the highs of 2020, still has not returned to pre-COVID levels. Is it time for investors to cash in their chips? We note that investors exit the stock market at their own peril, as long-term returns from equities consistently have outpaced long-term returns from other asset classes, such as fixed income and cash. As well, those returns are from eras when the 10-year Treasury bond yield was much higher than the current 3.0% level. So what's a potential equity strategy for investors amid all the uncertainty? Argus believes that Min Vol is an all-weather strategy that is timely in any investing climate. Academic literature and, more to the point, returns history, indicate that Min Vol can deliver market-matching returns on an absolute basis and superior returns on a risk-adjusted basis over various time periods.

Rapidly rising inflation in 2022 has knocked the stock market into a bear market. While growth strategies have suffered the most, value strategies also have declined. Even bond prices are lower year-to-date. Volatility, which has dropped from the highs of 2020, still has not returned to pre-COVID levels. Is it time for investors to cash in their chips? Perhaps not yet. We note that investors exit the stock market at their own peril, as long-term returns from equities consistently have outpaced long-term returns from other asset classes, such as fixed income and cash. As well, those returns are from eras when the 10-year Treasury bond yield was much higher than the current 3.0% level. So what's a potential equity strategy for investors amid all the uncertainty? Argus believes that Min-Vol is an all-weather strategy that is timely in any investing climate. Academic literature and, more to the point, returns history indicate that Min-Vol can deliver market-matching returns on an absolute basis and superior returns on a risk-adjusted basis over various time periods. We have designed a portfolio of companies followed by Argus Research analysts that are BUY-rated and have impressive Min-Vol characteristics of low beta, high yield, high market cap, strong balance sheets, and low risk profiles. Some of the stocks featured in the portfolio are listed below.

Monday Tee-Up: Fed, Inflation Data, GDP, and Earnings

The stock market opens Monday looking for a fresh start after last week's bruising. There are plenty of big earnings and economic reports coming to digest this week. On the docket are the big tech behemoths including Amazon (AMZN), Apple (AAPL), Alphabet (GOOG), Microsoft (MSFT), and Meta Platforms (META). Plenty of other giants report this week including Coca-Cola (KO), Chipotle (CMG), General Electric (GE), General Motors (GM), Boeing (BA), Exxon Mobil (XOM, Chevron (CVX), and Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY) among many others. The range of companies will give more data points on how different sectors are weathering the many external factors out there including - inflation, rising interest rates, and the continued war in Ukraine including economic sanctions on Russia. Last week, the Dow Jones Industrial average was down 640 points or 1.9%, the S&P 500 fell 2.8%, and the Nasdaq Composite was hit the hardest, losing 3.8%. Year-to-date, the Dow is down 7%, the S&P 500 is now in correction territory, off 10.4%, and the Nasdaq digs deeper into correction territory, down 17.9%. On Friday, the Dow suffered its worst one-day point loss since October 2020, shedding 981 points or 2.8%, the S&P 500 lost 2.8%, and the Nasdaq fell 2.6%. It was a rough week.

The overall Insider Index from Vickers Stock Research continues to benefit from a long-term trend of benign/bullish sentiment among corporate executives, directors, and beneficial owners. The Index (at -11.70 compared to -11.96 last week) continues to improve within the neutral zone that runs from +5.00 to -14.00. Despite insider-transaction volume that is at the lowest level since January (with insiders broadly prohibited from trading now that earnings season is fully underway), the Insider Index (reflecting six months of transaction data) is at its most-positive level since September 2020.

Value stocks -- a market segment that includes high-yield stocks -- are outperforming growth stocks in 2022. For the past decade, the performance record has favored growth, but the tide may be turning. The rollout of COVID-19 vaccines has given a lift to some of the cyclical companies (energy companies and regional banks) that have lagged in recent quarters, and value stocks have kept up the pace with growth stocks in the past year. Now, the Federal Reserve is poised to lift interest rates to fend off inflation, which will likely cap multiple expansion for growth companies. Regardless, the value sector is the place to achieve income. The current yield on the iShares Russell 1000 Value Index ETF is 1.6%, compared to the 0.5% current yield on the iShares Russell 1000 Growth Index ETF. For our High-Yield Theme Model Portfolio, we are seeking stocks with yields of at least 3.0%. This moves us deep into the value segment of the market.

The onset of the coronavirus in 2020 knocked stocks into a bear market. Though equities have recovered, the U.S. economy is about to slow down and COVID-19 cases are rising again as virus variants spread. Volatility, which has dropped from the highs of 2020, still has not returned to pre-COVID levels. Daily prices can swing wildly, as they did in January 2022 when the S&P 500 fell 5%. Is it time for investors to cash in their chips? Perhaps not yet. We note that investors exit the stock market at their own peril, as long-term returns from equities consistently have outpaced long-term returns from other asset classes, such as fixed income and cash. As well, those returns are from eras when the 10-year Treasury bond yield was not sub-2.0%. So what's a potential equity strategy for investors amid all the uncertainty? Argus believes that Min Vol is an all-weather strategy that is timely in any investing climate. Academic literature and, more to the point returns history, indicate that Min Vol can deliver market-matching returns on an absolute basis and superior returns on a risk-adjusted basis over various time periods. We have designed a portfolio of companies followed by Argus Research analysts that are BUY-rated and have impressive Min Vol characteristics of low beta, high yield, high market cap, strong balance sheets and low risk profiles. Here are some of the stocks featured in the portfolio.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

The onset of the coronavirus in 2020 knocked stocks into a bear market. Though equities recovered, the U.S. economy is about to slow down and COVID-19 cases are rising again as virus variants spread. Volatility, which has dropped from the highs of 2020, still has not returned to pre-COVID levels. Daily prices can swing wildly, as they did three times in 2021 when stocks dropped 4%-5% in a matter of a few days. Is it time for investors to cash in their chips? We note that investors exit the stock market at their own peril, as long-term returns from equities consistently have outpaced long-term returns from other asset classes, such as fixed income and cash. As well, those returns are from eras when the 10-year Treasury bond yield was not sub-2.0%. So what's a potential equity strategy for investors amid all the uncertainty? Argus believes that Min Vol is an all-weather strategy that is timely in any investing climate. Academic literature and, more to the point, returns history indicate that Min Vol can deliver market-matching returns on an absolute basis and superior returns on a risk-adjusted basis over various time periods.

Stocks rose strongly on Wednesday morning, recovering from Tuesday's selloff, as investors awaited the Fed's policy statement and comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell this afternoon. Housing market data was positive. The Commerce Department said that U.S. new home sales rose 11.9% in December to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 811,000, above the Bloomberg consensus forecast of 760,000. The Dow rose 1.0%, the S&P 1.4%, and the Nasdaq 2.1%. Crude oil traded near $88 per barrel, while gold fell $20 to $1832 per ounce.

This edition features a framework for measuring human capital risk; Asia reporting; inflation and supply chain issues in upcoming earnings; and notes from Verizon, VMware, and new coverage EML Payments.

Stocks finished mostly higher on Thursday as investors weighed earnings reports from a range of major companies along with new employment data. First-time unemployment claims fell to 290,000, down from the prior week and below consensus. Continuing claims dropped to 2.481 million from 2.603 million a week earlier, and were also below the consensus forecast. Housing data was strong. The National Association of Realtors said that sales of existing homes rose 7% in September to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.29 million, up from a decline of 2% in August and above the consensus estimate calling for 3.7% growth. The Dow fell 0.02%, the S&P rose 0.30%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.62%. Crude oil fell 1% to $82.50 per barrel, while gold fell slightly to $1784 per ounce.

Everyone is wondering when the Federal Reserve will start to wind down its asset-purchase program -- but few are discussing U.S. debt levels, which have grown over the past 10 years. Total U.S. debt is now more than 125% of GDP, according to the Office of Management & the Budget. This is the highest level since World War II. In the 1970s and 1980s, the debt/GDP ratio was in the 30%-40% range, and moved up toward the 60% level by 2000. The debt level soared around 2010, as the government spent aggressively to halt the Great Recession and rekindle growth. (According to Keynes, that's what the government is supposed to do). Still, despite more than 10 years of economic growth prior to the pandemic, debt only increased as a percentage of GDP. And now, in light of the fiscal spending to fight the impact of COVID-19, debt levels have surged. This is not a problem that has to be fixed today. After all, interest rates are low on an historical basis and policies to change the trajectory (less spending, more taxes) could push the economy back into decline. But politicians should start to establish a plan to address the issue in the next 10-15 years. If the problem is not solved, the situation could result in hyperinflation and a weak dollar, which would send interest rates higher and cut into equity valuations.

This edition features edge computing; utilities' role in green energy; AIG's valuation; and notes from RH, SEI Investments, and Lululemon.

Value stocks are outperforming growth in 2021 for the first time since 2016. While a recent rally in growth stocks has narrowed the performance advantage for value in the year to date, an environment of historically low interest rates is one in which many investors are still searching for high levels of income -- which often can be found in value stocks. When we look for attractive high-yield/deep-value stocks at Argus, we look for low valuations on metrics such as price/earnings, price/sales, price/book, yield, and price/cash flow. We also look for companies with clean balance sheets, high levels of profitability, high-quality earnings, and experienced management teams. We seek to avoid companies in industries that are in secular decline, or with dividend yields that are so high that the payout is clearly at risk. Based on numerous requests from clients, we have designed a portfolio of companies that are BUY-rated at Argus Research, have a Financial Strength rating of at least Medium, and have a yield of 3.0% or higher.

The onset of the coronavirus in 2020 knocked the stock market into a bear market. Though stocks have recovered, the U.S. economy is about to slow down and COVID-19 cases are rising again as virus variants spread. Volatility, which has dropped from the highs of 2020, still has not returned to pre-COVID levels. Daily prices can swing wildly, as they did during two consecutive days in mid-July when the Dow Jones Industrial Average plummeted more than 1,000 points. Yet investors exit the stock market at their own peril, as long-term returns from equities consistently have outpaced long-term returns from other asset classes. Argus believes that Min Vol is an all-weather strategy that is timely in any investing climate and can deliver market-matching returns on an absolute basis and superior returns on a risk-adjusted basis over various time periods.

Stocks edged higher on Thursday as investors weighed a new round of earnings reports along with employment and housing market data. AT&T posted better-than-expected 2Q results, reflecting strong growth in wireless subscribers, and raised its full-year guidance. Texas Instruments also topped consensus estimates, though the shares fell 5% on a lower-than-expected 3Q sales forecast. On the housing front, the National Association of Realtors said that sales of existing homes rose 1.4% to an annualized 5.86 million units in June, slightly below the consensus forecast. First-time jobless claims rose to 419,000, up from the prior week and above consensus. Continuing claims fell by 29,000 to 3.236 million. The Dow rose 0.07%, the S&P 0.20%, and the Nasdaq 0.36%. Crude oil rose 2% to $71.50 per barrel, while gold rose $4 to $1808 per ounce.

Stocks rose modestly on Wednesday morning, recovering some of their losses after Tuesday's selloff. On the employment front, payroll provider ADP said that U.S. private employers added 742,000 jobs in April, up from 565,000 in March. The reading was the strongest since last September but missed the Reuters consensus, which called for an increase of 800,000 jobs. The Institute for Supply Management said that its services index fell to 62.7 in April, down from 63.7 in March and below the consensus forecast of 64.3. The Dow rose 0.2%, the S&P 0.3%, and the Nasdaq 0.5%. Crude oil traded near $66 per barrel, while gold rose $7 to $1783 per ounce.

Stocks fell on Thursday afternoon after Bloomberg reported that President Biden would propose raising the capital gains tax rate for people earning at least $1 million. Prior to the tax news, stocks were mixed as investors weighed new 1Q earnings reports, a decline in existing home sales, and weekly employment data. First-time jobless claims fell to 547,000, a new post-pandemic low and below the consensus forecast of 610,000. Continuing claims fell to 3.674 million, down from 3.708 million a week earlier but slightly above the consensus forecast. The Dow fell 0.94%, the S&P 0.92%, and the Nasdaq 0.94%. Crude oil traded near $62 per barrel, while gold fell $9 to $1784 per ounce.

Stocks were generally higher on Wednesday morning, led by the Technology and Consumer Discretionary sectors, as investors awaited more details about the Biden administration's $2 trillion infrastructure improvement plan. On the employment front, payroll provider ADP said that U.S. private employers added 517,000 jobs in March, up strongly from a revised 176,000 in February. The reading missed the Bloomberg consensus forecast of 550,000, though it was still the strongest gain since September. The Dow was flat, the S&P rose 0.6%, and the Nasdaq rose 1.6%. Crude oil traded near $61 per barrel, while gold rose $19 to $1703 per ounce.