We try to stick to technical analysis in this space. But we do have some pretty solid fundamental and economic knowledge on which we can draw. And right now, we'll address the core subject of supply and demand, which is not that hard to understand even without much financial background.

Stocks rebounded on Thursday morning after three days of losses, led by the Technology and Consumer Discretionary sectors. The Colonial pipeline resumed operations after last week's cyberattack, and was gradually restoring fuel supply to areas affected by the shutdown. On the employment front, the Labor Department said that first-time claims for state unemployment benefits fell to 473,000 for the week ended May 8, down from a revised 507,000 a week earlier and below the Bloomberg consensus of 490,000. The Dow rose 1.4%, the S&P 1.5%, and the Nasdaq 1.5%. Crude oil fell more than 2% to $65 per barrel, while gold traded near $1820 per ounce.

Often overlooked amid gyrations in the stock market is dividend income, which is an important element of total return. Between 1930 and 2012, dividend income accounted for 42% of total return of the S&P 500, according to Hartford Funds. And that's just the average. In some decades, dividends accounted for more than 50% of total returns and even 100% of returns. More recently, dividends have accounted for 15%-20% of returns. Still, in 2018, dividend payments softened the blow when most market indices declined as the Federal Reserve hiked rates. Not all dividends are created equal, though, and it is important to understand the difference between the two main categories: high-yield stocks and dividend-growth stocks.

This edition features the coming corporate tax hike; U.S. support for vaccine patent waiver; Macao gaming; and notes from Zillow, CarMax, and Square.

Stocks fell on Tuesday morning, led by a sharp drop in large Tech stocks. On the economic front, the Commerce Department said that U.S. factory orders rose 1.1% in March, up from a 0.5% decline in February but below the Reuters consensus forecast of 1.3% growth. The Commerce Department also reported that the U.S. trade deficit rose 5.6% to an all-time high of $74.4 billion in March on strong growth in imports. The Dow fell 0.9%, the S&P 1.3%, and the Nasdaq 2.5%. Crude oil traded near $65 per barrel, while gold rose slightly to $1794 per ounce.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

Stocks were mixed on Monday morning amid a new round of first-quarter earnings reports and weaker-than-expected manufacturing and construction data. The Institute for Supply Management said that its factory index fell to 60.7 in April, down from 64.7 in March and below the Reuters consensus forecast of 65.0. Meanwhile, the Commerce Department said that U.S. construction spending rose 0.2% in March, up from a 0.6% decline in February but well below the consensus forecast calling for 1.9% growth. The Dow rose 0.9%, the S&P rose 0.3%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.5%. Crude oil traded near $64.50 per barrel, while gold jumped $27 to $1795 per ounce.

Stocks kept the momentum going in April, and are now up almost 12%, including dividends, in the year-to-date. Our analysts have been progressing through earnings season, and have come across many stocks in coverage that have approached target prices. We set target prices through our valuation framework, which includes analysis of historical multiples, peer multiples, future dividends, and cash flows. After adjusting the models for the latest earnings and dividend information -- most of which has been good -- here are some of the stocks on which we have raised target prices over the past month. All stocks are rated BUY at Argus.

Sustainable Impact Investing is gaining traction with the global investment community. In January 2020, BlackRock CEO Lawrence Fink, who oversees approximately $9 trillion in assets, announced that his firm would be investing in companies that are making progress on sustainability. He doubled down in his January 2021 letter, calling on company managements to disclose their plans for making their businesses "compatible with a net-zero economy" by 2050. As assets have flowed in over the past 40 years, Sustainable Impact Investing has evolved. The discipline, originally known as Socially Responsible Investing, focused at first on excluding companies that conducted business in South Africa, or participated in industries such as tobacco, alcohol, and firearms. But the performance of these initial strategies lagged, and the approach has been modified. Now, instead of merely identifying industries to avoid, the discipline promotes "sustainable" business practices across all industries that can have an "impact" on global issues such as the climate, hunger, poverty, disease, shelter, and workers' rights.

As we have pointed out several times of late, 2021 has not been close to normal. One of the biggest surprises has been that 2021 appears to be "The Year of Retail." We're not talking about the online world dominated by Amazon, but rather the tried-and-true brick-and-mortar retail world that not long ago seemed to be going under. But by now, most companies in the space have shifted to online sales -- and, so far, the market seems to think these firms may have a chance.

Innovation may be hard to define, but to borrow from former U.S. Supreme Court Justice Potter Stewart, you know it when you see it. The United States economy is full of innovation. It has to be. Manufacturing industries that dominated the economy decades ago -- textiles, televisions, even automobiles, to a large degree -- have moved overseas, where costs are lower. Yet the U.S. economy is at its largest point in history and still growing. If U.S. corporations weren't innovating, creating new products and services, and moving into new markets and applications, the domestic economy would be contracting, not expanding, and capital would not be flooding into the country. Particularly at this juncture of the market and economic cycles, we look to innovative companies to navigate the challenges. At Argus, an 85-year-old independent research firm that has innovated a time or two in its long history, we have focused on four types of innovative companies: Industry Disruptors; First to Market; New Product Specialists; and Product & Process Perfectors. The following innovative and BUY-rated companies recently were added to our Growth model portfolio, as well as our new Innovative Growth Separately Managed Account, and our Modern Innovators UIT. The full list of stocks also is in our Innovation theme model portfolio.

The stock market moved lower last week, then rallied on Friday, ultimately finishing flat-to-down. Tech stocks and blue chips performed similarly, with tech narrowly outperforming. During Friday's session, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 228 points, or 0.67%. The S&P 500 was up 1.09%, and the Nasdaq Composite was up 1.44%. For the week, the DJIA was down 0.46%, the S&P 500 was up 0.13%, and the Nasdaq Composite was down 0.25%. Year-to-date, the DJIA is up 11.23%, the S&P 500 is up 11.29%, and the Nasdaq Composite is up 8.76%.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

Stocks were little changed on Thursday morning following new employment and housing market data. The Labor Department said that first-time claims for state unemployment benefits fell to 547,000 for the week ended April 17, down from 586,000 a week earlier and below the Bloomberg consensus forecast of 610,000. The National Association of Realtors said that existing home sales fell 3.7% to an annualized 6.01 million in March. The reading was the weakest since August 2020 and below the consensus forecast of 6.19 million. The Dow fell 0.2%, the S&P was flat, and the Nasdaq rose 0.2%. Crude oil fell slightly to $61 per barrel, while gold traded near $1787 per ounce.

Stocks rose on Wednesday morning as investors weighed a new round of 1Q earnings reports. Netflix shares fell more than 7%, despite above-consensus sales and earnings, after the company missed its subscriber acquisition target. Subscriber additions were also down from the prior year. Verizon posted better-than-expected first-quarter earnings but also saw a sharp decline in wireless subscribers. VZ shares fell slightly following the report. The Dow rose 0.5%, the S&P 0.5%, and the Nasdaq 0.6%. Crude oil traded near $62 per barrel, while gold rose $14 to $1793 per ounce.

We have skirted the issue of sentiment for months as bullish extremes have become even more extreme. Other than some mild pullbacks, we haven't seen anything close to real fear in the stock market since the COVID-19 collapse in early 2020.

This edition features our U.S. housing outlook; smarter hydrogen investing; Swatch's prospects in a pricey luxury market; and notes from Johnson & Johnson, Schwab, and AMD.

Last week, we talked about the precious metals having some life, and that continued on Thursday. The U.S. Dollar Index (USD) has declined over the past two weeks, while Treasury yields have rolled over from recent highs. While we believe the greenback and yields have further to run on the upside, the short-term action is bullish for the metals.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

Stocks Inch to New Highs amid New Concerns

Last week was a wild affair, as major stock indices saw multiple reversals. After Friday's surge, the S&P 500 actually made a very marginal (less than 1 point) all-time high, though many other indices are still in short-term downtrends.