Both the Dow Industrials (DIA) and Transports (IYT) have traced out a lower low and lower high since May 7. A Dow Theory Sell Signal (DTSS) is when both averages: (1) set a new high; (2) pull back from those highs; (3) rebound by 3% or more without making a higher high; and (4) decline below the pull-back low. This is a very old theory that was first developed in the early 1900s. Should we sell everything and run for the hills?

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) haven't seen much follow-through over the last five days. The S&P Mid-Cap 400 and Russell 2000 (IWM) have made some headway, with the "400" approaching its all-time closing high (ATH) from May 7 and the small-caps nearing their ATH from March 16.

Our rating on the Financial Services sector is Over-Weight. With market optimism rising on positive vaccine developments and the new administration in Washington, interest rates have started to move higher at the long end of the yield curve. We expect banks to benefit from wider net-interest margins and lower loan-loss provisions as the economy normalizes, and insurance companies to generate higher income in their investment portfolios. The sector now accounts for 11.4% of the S&P 500. Over the past five years, the weighting has ranged from 10% to 17%. We think the sector should account for 12%-15% of diversified portfolios. Here is how we use our analysts' Financial Services sector ideas in our Focus List and Model portfolios. All of the following stocks are rated BUY at Argus.

We continue to (mostly) ignore market sentiment as bullish extremes become even more extreme. Indeed, other than some mild pullbacks, we haven't seen anything close to real fear since the COVID-19 collapse in February and March of 2020.

As we discussed yesterday, there has been some clear weakness in market breadth over the past month, mostly seen in the Nasdaq and the Nasdaq 100 (NDX). This is certainly not surprising, as those indices bore the brunt of the selling over that same past month.

Volatility reigned last week, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average seeing four days with changes in excess of 350 points. Not surprisingly, the VIX Volatility Index logged some miles as well, starting the week at 17.34, hitting a mid-week high of 28.93, and ending the week back down at 18.81. When that type of wild day-to-day action occurs, finding solid ground in short-term indicators can be difficult. So at times like these, we favor a review of long-term gauges.

The stock market was volatile last week as inflation concerns whipsawed stocks, ultimately pushing them lower on the week. During Friday's session, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 361 points, or 1.06%. The S&P 500 was up 1.49%, and the Nasdaq Composite was up 2.32%. For the week, the DJIA was down 397 points, or 1.14%, the S&P 500 was down 1.39%, and the Nasdaq Composite was down 2.34%. Year-to-date, the DJIA is up 12.34%, the S&P 500 is up 11.12%, and the Nasdaq Composite is up 4.20%.

This edition features possible upcoming corporate tax hikes; European low-cost-ticket airlines; an earnings roundup; and notes from Honda, Macerich, and Green Thumb Industries.

We try to stick to technical analysis in this space. But we do have some pretty solid fundamental and economic knowledge on which we can draw. And right now, we'll address the core subject of supply and demand, which is not that hard to understand even without much financial background.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

Stocks kept the momentum going in April, and are now up almost 12%, including dividends, in the year-to-date. Our analysts have been progressing through earnings season, and have come across many stocks in coverage that have approached target prices. We set target prices through our valuation framework, which includes analysis of historical multiples, peer multiples, future dividends, and cash flows. After adjusting the models for the latest earnings and dividend information -- most of which has been good -- here are some of the stocks on which we have raised target prices over the past month. All stocks are rated BUY at Argus.

Stocks rose modestly on Thursday morning, but gave up strong early gains amid a range of first-quarter earnings reports and new GDP and employment data. Investors also weighed President Biden's ambitious plans for new spending on families and education. The Commerce Department said that the U.S. economy expanded at a 6.4% annualized rate in the first quarter, above the Reuters consensus forecast of 6.1% and up from 4.3% growth in the fourth quarter. The Dow rose 0.1%, the S&P 0.3%, and the Nasdaq 0.1%. Crude oil rose 1.5% to $65 per barrel, while gold traded near $1768 per ounce.

The S&P 500 is nearing 4,200 and riding its weekly Bollinger Band like a champ, but is very extended from its 200-day and 200-week averages. As well, sentiment is in La La Land. So has the stock market fully discounted most/all of the good news or do we have some decent upside left?

Our rating on the Industrial sector is Over-Weight. After enduring the challenges of the pandemic, the cyclical stocks in the sector appear well positioned within the changing political environment. Specifically, we believe that Industrial stocks will benefit from enhanced infrastructure investment and more-lenient trade policies during the Biden administration. The Industrial sector accounts for 8.9% of S&P 500 market capitalization. Over the past five years, the weighting has ranged from 7% to 12%. We think that investors should allocate 9%-10% of their diversified portfolios to the group. The sector includes industries such as transportation, aerospace & defense, heavy machinery and electrical equipment. The sector is outperforming the market thus far in 2021. It underperformed in 2020, with a gain of 9.0%, and slightly underperformed in 2019, with a gain of 26.8%. Here are some of our top Industrial picks, all of which are rated BUY at Argus.

Stocks rallied on Thursday following better-than-expected retail sales and employment data, along with earnings from Bank of America and BlackRock. The Commerce Department said that U.S. retail sales rose a strong 9.8% in March, helped by government stimulus checks and supplemental weekly unemployment benefits. The reading was above the consensus of 5.9% growth and up from a 2.7% decline in February. First-time jobless claims fell to 576,000, a post-pandemic low and well below the consensus forecast of 700,000. Continuing claims rose to 3.731 million, up slightly from 3.727 million a week earlier and above the consensus of 3.7 million. The Dow rose 0.90%, the S&P 1.11%, and the Nasdaq 1.31%. Crude oil traded near $63 per barrel, while gold rose $29 to $1765 per ounce.

Stocks rose on Thursday morning, led by the Technology and Healthcare sectors, as investors weighed more 1Q earnings reports and weekly employment data. The Labor Department said that first-time claims for state unemployment benefits fell sharply to 576,000 for the week ended April 10, down from 769,000 a week earlier and below the Bloomberg consensus forecast of 700,000. Bond yields retreated, with the yield on the 10-year Treasury falling below 1.6%. The Dow rose 0.8%, the S&P 0.8%, and the Nasdaq 1.0%. Crude oil fell slightly to $63 per barrel, while gold traded near $1767 per ounce.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

Thursday was another odd day. Major stock indices again saw a decent-sized reversal, this time from mid-morning lows (the opposite of what happened on Wednesday). NYSE breadth saw decliners ahead of advancers by 1,900 issues early on, but the advance/decline stats finished with over 1,300 net advancers.

We recently raised our rating on the Communication Services sector to Over-Weight. In this barbell sector, media and entertainment companies should benefit from robust online activity and the reopening of theme parks and movie theaters. Providers of telecom services should benefit from ARPU gains as the 5G rollout gains traction. The style mix of the sector is approximately one-third value and two-thirds growth. The adjusted pro-forma beta is approximately 1.1 (like the old telecoms), while the yield is 0.9% (reflecting the impact of Google and Facebook). The smoothed growth rate is 7% and the P/E ratio is 21x. The sector accounts for 11% of the S&P 500. We think investors should consider allocating 12%-14% of diversified portfolios to the sector. Here are some of our top picks.

This edition features optimism for Arkema; Seven & I's food-service strategy; the Fed's next moves for interest rates; and notes from Bank of America, FedEx, and American Express.

While the S&P 500 remains very close to all-time highs, the Nasdaq and QQQs remain skittish as the trend in 5- to 30-year Treasury yields is firmly to the upside. While the level of rates is historically low, the slope of the yield advance is steep.