Crude oil continues to recover from the devastating bear market between February and March of 2020. The size of the current advance is surprising both fundamentalists and technicians. It seems no one saw this coming. In fact, certain business channel stars were once calling crude oil a dead asset. Despite an extremely overbought condition on both daily and weekly momentum indicators, prices keep making new recovery highs on almost a daily basis.

With earnings season drawing to a close, the volume of weekly insider transactions is returning to normal. As such, there is increased relevance in the signals being thrown off by corporate executives, directors and beneficial owners. And those signals are little changed from what we've seen over the past several weeks. Insider sentiment remains broadly cautious, with the caution led by insiders at companies that list on the tech-heavy Nasdaq.

Stocks fell on Wednesday morning as investors weighed new retail sales and producer price data, and awaited the release of minutes from the Federal Reserve's last meeting. The Commerce Department reported that U.S. retail sales rose a seasonally adjusted 5.3% in January, up from a decline of 1.0% in December and well above the Reuters consensus forecast of 1.1% growth. The Labor Department said that its producer price index rose 1.3% in January, up from 0.3% in December and the strongest gain since December 2009. The Dow fell 0.2%, the S&P 0.6%, and the Nasdaq 1.2%. Crude oil traded near $60 per barrel, while gold fell $18 to $1781 per ounce.

The stock market performed well last week, touching fresh highs with no clear-cut catalysts aside from relatively strong earnings. Tech stocks outperformed blue chips, though small-cap stocks outperformed both. During Friday's session, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 28 points, or 0.09%. The S&P 500 was up 0.47%, and the Nasdaq Composite increased 0.50%. For the week, the DJIA climbed 310 points, or 1.00%, the S&P 500 climbed 1.23%, and the Nasdaq Composite led the way, climbing 1.73%. Year-to-date, the DJIA is up 2.78%, the S&P 500 is up 4.76%, and the Nasdaq Composite is up 9.37%.

Stocks fluctuated on Thursday in choppy trading as investors weighed weekly employment data, a continued decline in new U.S. coronavirus cases, and a warning from President Biden about challenges from China. The Labor Department reported that both first-time and continuing unemployment claims fell from the prior week, though both readings were above consensus forecasts. After the close, Disney posted an unexpected fiscal 1Q profit amid strong growth in Disney+ subscribers. The Dow fell 0.02%, the S&P rose 0.17%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.38%. Crude oil fell more than 1% to $58 per barrel, while gold fell $17 to $1826 per ounce.

There's nothing like a week-long selling jag to get the bullish juices flowing once again. After the S&P 500 set a new all-time closing high at 3,855 on 1/25/21, GameStop hysteria seized the market. A relatively small set of retail investors, embracing YOLO (you only live once), pushed GME to unsustainable highs in the mid-$300s. Although this occurred among a small group of investors in a small set of stocks, fear grew that an equity asset bubble had been discovered, and broad selling took over. By 1/29/21, the final trading day in January, the S&P 500 had fallen 3.7% or by about 140 points.

Stocks were largely flat on Tuesday morning after a week of strong gains as investors awaited next steps in the passage of the Biden administration's stimulus plan. On the employment front, the Labor Department, in its monthly JOLTS report, said that U.S. job openings rose slightly in December, to 6.65 million, while hiring fell to 5.54 million from 5.94 million in November. The Dow and the S&P were flat, while the Nasdaq rose 0.3%. Crude oil traded near $58 per barrel, while gold rose $3 to $1837 per ounce.

January ended with a fizzle, as stocks recorded their worst month since October and the S&P 500 registered a loss for the month. In a month that featured the incursion at the Capitol Building and a heavily policed inauguration, few predicted that the key market driver would be a retail chain that a few hedge funds (to their misfortune) perceived to be on its last legs.