Last week in this space, we detailed stubbornly negative, but grudgingly improving, insider sentiment. The easy path this week would be to say that conditions are little changed. And in the big picture, that is true. But there are some interesting highlights in the insider-transaction data from Vickers Stock Research this week.

If we had to take part in a debate about insider sentiment, we could easily support the argument that insider sentiment is improving. We also could easily support the argument that insider sentiment is not improving. The factors involved in said debate are the absolute values of insider-sentiment gauges from Vickers Stock Research, the trends for those values, and the rate of change for those trends.

Stocks rose on Friday morning amid strong manufacturing and housing market data. The rally followed a Thursday afternoon selloff prompted by the Biden administration's plan for increased capital gains taxes on high earners with incomes above $1 million. IHS Markit said that its manufacturing purchasing managers' index rose to 60.6 in the first half of April, up from a final reading of 59.1 in March and slightly above the consensus forecast. On the housing front, the Commerce Department said that U.S. new home sales rose 20.7% to an annualized 1.021 million units in March, above the consensus of 886,000. The Dow rose 0.5%, the S&P 0.9%, and the Nasdaq 1.3%. Crude oil traded near $62 per barrel, while gold fell $6 to $1776 per ounce.

Stocks fell on Thursday afternoon after Bloomberg reported that President Biden would propose raising the capital gains tax rate for people earning at least $1 million. Prior to the tax news, stocks were mixed as investors weighed new 1Q earnings reports, a decline in existing home sales, and weekly employment data. First-time jobless claims fell to 547,000, a new post-pandemic low and below the consensus forecast of 610,000. Continuing claims fell to 3.674 million, down from 3.708 million a week earlier but slightly above the consensus forecast. The Dow fell 0.94%, the S&P 0.92%, and the Nasdaq 0.94%. Crude oil traded near $62 per barrel, while gold fell $9 to $1784 per ounce.

Our rating on the Industrial sector is Over-Weight. After enduring the challenges of the pandemic, the cyclical stocks in the sector appear well positioned within the changing political environment. Specifically, we believe that Industrial stocks will benefit from enhanced infrastructure investment and more-lenient trade policies during the Biden administration. The Industrial sector accounts for 8.9% of S&P 500 market capitalization. Over the past five years, the weighting has ranged from 7% to 12%. We think that investors should allocate 9%-10% of their diversified portfolios to the group. The sector includes industries such as transportation, aerospace & defense, heavy machinery and electrical equipment. The sector is outperforming the market thus far in 2021. It underperformed in 2020, with a gain of 9.0%, and slightly underperformed in 2019, with a gain of 26.8%. Here are some of our top Industrial picks, all of which are rated BUY at Argus.

President Joe Biden is preparing to announce an infrastructure-rebuilding plan that he estimates will create up to 10 million clean energy jobs. The following areas of the economy stand to benefit from the government spending, which could total as much as $4 trillion. The first element of the plan is improving the country's infrastructure, from roads and bridges to water systems and electricity grids.

Sentiment, Business Activity Remain Elevated in the New Year

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Stocks sold off last week, due in part to frenzied trading in certain corners of the market, along with FOMC commentary that highlighted a slowing recovery. The general public took special note of this week's equity market drama, with Google search interest for 'stock market' at its highest levels since March 2020. Blue-chips fared slightly better than tech stocks during the slide. On Friday, The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 621 points, or 2.03%. The S&P 500 was down 1.93% and the Nasdaq Composite was down 2.00%. For the week, the DJIA fell 3.27%, the S&P 500 dropped 3.31%, and the Nasdaq Composite sunk 3.49%.