Data from Vickers Stock Research continues to reflect rambling sentiment among corporate insiders, in many ways matching the tone of the overall stock market. While that may seem to be an uncompelling statement, corporate executives, directors and beneficial owners are not usually in lockstep with the broader investing community. The typically sell more often than they buy, they sell earlier than many other investors as stocks are rising, and they buy earlier than many other investors when stocks are falling. So when they are behaving <MM>just like everyone else,<MM> we notice.

Our 2021 forecast for the average price of a barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude oil is now $59, up from $53. Our estimate assumes OPEC and OPEC+ members continue to coordinate on production cuts and that there will be gradually improving global economic activity this year. Our target price also reflects the long-term downward pressure on crude prices as Peak Oil approaches. Here are the recent average annual prices: $40 in 2020, $57 in 2019, $65 in 2018, $51 in 2017, $43 in 2016, $49 in 2015, $93 in 2014 and $98 in 2013. Further, we anticipate that President Biden's policies will continue to favor clean energy initiatives rather than carbon-based energy solutions. Our range through 2021 is now $70 on the upside and $50 on the downside. Given the recovery in in oil prices and the outlook for stability over the next few quarters, our investment recommendation on the Energy sector is Market-Weight. The current weight for the sector in the S&P 500 is approximately 2.9%, down from the 7%-8% range in 2013-2014. Within the group, we favor companies with strong balance sheets and a history of growing dividends.

The stock market was volatile last week as inflation concerns whipsawed stocks, ultimately pushing them lower on the week. During Friday's session, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 361 points, or 1.06%. The S&P 500 was up 1.49%, and the Nasdaq Composite was up 2.32%. For the week, the DJIA was down 397 points, or 1.14%, the S&P 500 was down 1.39%, and the Nasdaq Composite was down 2.34%. Year-to-date, the DJIA is up 12.34%, the S&P 500 is up 11.12%, and the Nasdaq Composite is up 4.20%.

Often overlooked amid gyrations in the stock market is dividend income, which is an important element of total return. Between 1930 and 2012, dividend income accounted for 42% of total return of the S&P 500, according to Hartford Funds. And that's just the average. In some decades, dividends accounted for more than 50% of total returns and even 100% of returns. More recently, dividends have accounted for 15%-20% of returns. Still, in 2018, dividend payments softened the blow when most market indices declined as the Federal Reserve hiked rates. Not all dividends are created equal, though, and it is important to understand the difference between the two main categories: high-yield stocks and dividend-growth stocks.

Stocks were mixed on Monday morning, with strong gains in the Consumer Staples, Industrial, and Utility sectors and losses in Technology and Communication Services. Marriott shares fell 3% after the company posted lower-than-expected 1Q earnings, reflecting weak bookings in its core U.S. market. Tyson shares also fell, despite better-than-expected fiscal 2Q results, after management warned that rising costs would weigh on margins in the second half of the year. The Dow rose 0.8%, the S&P was flat, and the Nasdaq fell 1.4%. Crude oil traded near $64.50 per barrel, while gold rose $9 to $1839 per ounce.

Stocks rose modestly on Wednesday morning, recovering some of their losses after Tuesday's selloff. On the employment front, payroll provider ADP said that U.S. private employers added 742,000 jobs in April, up from 565,000 in March. The reading was the strongest since last September but missed the Reuters consensus, which called for an increase of 800,000 jobs. The Institute for Supply Management said that its services index fell to 62.7 in April, down from 63.7 in March and below the consensus forecast of 64.3. The Dow rose 0.2%, the S&P 0.3%, and the Nasdaq 0.5%. Crude oil traded near $66 per barrel, while gold rose $7 to $1783 per ounce.

Stocks rose modestly on Monday morning at the start of a busy week for 1Q earnings reports, which have thus far been strong. According to FactSet, 84% of S&P 500 companies that have reported 1Q results have topped consensus expectations. On the economic front, the Commerce Department said that core capital goods orders excluding aircraft rose 0.9% in March, up from a 0.8% decline in February but below the Reuters consensus forecast of 1.5% growth. The Dow rose 0.1%, the S&P 0.2%, and the Nasdaq 0.6%. Crude oil traded near $62 per barrel, while gold rose slightly to $1778 per ounce.

This edition features our U.S. housing outlook; smarter hydrogen investing; Swatch's prospects in a pricey luxury market; and notes from Johnson & Johnson, Schwab, and AMD.