Stocks were mixed on Wednesday morning following more signs of sustained high inflation and solid earnings from JPMorgan and BlackRock. The Labor Department said that its consumer price index rose 0.4% in September, up from 0.3% growth in August and above the Reuters consensus forecast of 0.3%. Core consumer prices, excluding food and energy, rose 0.2%, in line with consensus expectations. Core prices also rose 4.0% from the prior year. The Dow fell 0.5%, the S&P fell 0.2%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.2%. Crude oil traded near $80.50 per barrel, while gold rose 2% to $1794 per ounce.

Of all the small- to mega-cap indices we follow, there are only two that are above their 50-day moving average: the Russell 2000 (IWM) by $0.30 and the S&P SmallCap 600 (SML). Yes, of late we have seen some relative outperformance from small-caps versus mega-caps. But it is certainly not enough to get us excited. Both the IWM and the SML remain in trading ranges going all the way back to March, about seven months ago.

The big banks are typically the first to report earnings, and those announcements are now beginning. The 2Q21 EPS season was one for the ages, with 96% year-over-year growth. The third quarter is expected to be strong, but not that strong, with the current consensus forecast calling for 29% growth. Factors behind the slowdown include: 1) a more-difficult comparison than the prior quarter, which was stacked up against the worst of the pandemic quarters; 2) the emergence of the Delta variant over the summer; and 3) troubles in the supply chain, which forced many companies to curtail production. Based on our multi-input model, which includes granular analysis of both sectors and quarters, we recently increased our estimate of S&P 500 earnings from continuing operations for 2021 to a rounded $191. Our revised 2021 EPS estimate assumes 38% growth from our static 2020 estimate. Off the higher 2021 base, and on the assumption that positive economic momentum in the pandemic-recovery year of 2021 can be carried forward, we have raised our estimate of S&P 500 earnings from continuing operations for 2022 to a rounded $214. Our revised 2022 EPS model assumes 14% growth from our 2021 estimate, in line with earlier expectations. Sectors that we expect to see lead 3Q21 growth include Energy and Financials.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

The Portfolio Selector features the Argus Focus List, a group of 30 "best idea" stocks generated and regularly updated by Argus' analysts and investment policy committee. It also includes the director of research’s monthly investment strategy column, stock recommendations and sector picks, economic forecasts, and an asset allocation model. This month, the Focus List additions are DuPont de Nemours Inc (DD); Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc (HLT); Twilio Inc (TWLO); Corning, Inc. (GLW) and the Focus List deletions are LyondellBasell Industries NV (LYB); American Electric Power Co Inc (AEP); International Business Machine (IBM); T-Mobile US Inc (TMUS); Restaurant Brands Intl In (QSR).

October is off to a rocky start, although the market eked out a win last week. Investors took the disappointing jobs number as well as could be expected. While the absolute number of jobs gained was well under expectations, some economists believe the seasonal adjustment (related to limited return to classrooms in fall 2020) may have skewed the data, and that without adjustments the job tally would have been higher.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

The U.S. Department of Commerce announced that its third estimate for 2Q21 GDP growth was a rate of 6.7%. This was in line with the previous estimates and with the consensus outlook, and represents a robust recovery. The GDP report also includes an inflation gauge, the PCE price index. This index, excluding food and energy, rose at a 6.1% pace, well ahead the Federal Reserve's inflation target of 2.0%, though the Fed has said that it will allow inflation to run hot for a while before raising short-term interest rates. Looking ahead, we expect above-trend GDP growth for the next few quarters. But there may be bumps along the way, including the impact of the delta variant on jobs and consumer spending on services, as well as supply-chain bottlenecks. Speaking of the employment environment, unemployment claims rose last week to 362,000, according to the Labor Department. This was the third consecutive week of rising claims. The four-week average of continued claims (the chronically unemployed) was 2.8 million, flat week-to-week and down from the pandemic highs of more than 20 million in May 2020 (but still substantially higher than the 1.7 million reading in February 2020, before the pandemic struck).

No matter how you slice it, Monday was ugly and one of the worst days of the year for stocks. Fortunately, a pretty strong late-day rally cut into the losses. The S&P 500 was clocked for 1.7% or 75 points, one of the larger daily losses in 2021. At the lows, the index was down 127 points or 2.9%. In the process, the index lost its 50-day average for the first time since October 2020. It was also the first time that the index fell to its middle weekly Bollinger Band (BB) since October. NYSE breadth was -2,359, the fourth-worst reading in 2021.

This edition features digital adversiting and regulatory risk; our quarterly telecom outlook; new coverage of backup power leader Generac; and notes from Continental, Goldman Sachs, and Boston Beer.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

In the trading week ended September 10, the stock market did what it often does in September -- which is head lower. The S&P 500 fell 1.69% and the Nasdaq Composite declined 1.61%. The DJIA fared the worst, declining 2.15%, weighed down by Boeing.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

The stock market moved lower last week, with tech stocks relatively outperforming blue chips, though both were off. During Friday's session, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 272 points, or 0.78%. The S&P 500 was down 0.77%, and the Nasdaq Composite was down 0.87%. For the week, the DJIA was down 761 points, or 2.15%, the S&P 500 was down 1.69%, and the Nasdaq Composite was down 1.61%. Year-to-date, the DJIA is up 13.07%, the S&P 500 is up 18.70%, and the Nasdaq Composite is up 17.28%.

This edition features edge computing; utilities' role in green energy; AIG's valuation; and notes from RH, SEI Investments, and Lululemon.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

Back on August 26, we said it might be time to keep an eye on interest rates. So far, we're not wrong. But we aren't right either. Since late August, the 10-year hasn't done much, rising from 1.34% to 1.37%. The intraday high on Tuesday was 1.385%, just slightly above the peaks on August 12 and 26. Needless to say, a push above yesterday's high could get yields moving to the upside.

The Portfolio Selector features the Argus Focus List, a group of 30 "best idea" stocks generated and regularly updated by Argus' analysts and investment policy committee. It also includes the director of research’s monthly investment strategy column, stock recommendations and sector picks, economic forecasts, and an asset allocation model. This month, the Focus List additions are Tyson Foods, Inc. (TSN); Charter Communications Inc. (CHTR); Williams-Sonoma, Inc. (WSM); Cloudflare Inc (NET) and the Focus List deletions are Sanmina Corp (SANM); EBay Inc. (EBAY); Coca-Cola Co (KO); Pinterest Inc (PINS).

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

The Technology sector started slowly in 2021 as investors focused on value stocks. But the sector has come on strong in recent months (up 22% year-to-date) and now is outperforming the market (up 20.7%) as well as value sectors such as Consumer Staples (+8%), Utilities (+10%), Materials (+17%), and Industrials (+18%). The sector is the largest in the U.S. market and now accounts for more than 28% of the S&P 500. Over the long term, we expect the sector to benefit from pervasive digitization across the economy, greater acceptance of transformative technologies, and the development of the Internet of Things (IoT). Healthy company and sector fundamentals are also positive. For individual companies, these include high cash levels, low debt, and broad international business exposure. We have an Over-Weight ranking on the Tech sector and think investors should look to allocate up to 30% of their diversified portfolios to the group. Here is how we use our analysts' Tech sector ideas in our Focus List and Model Portfolios.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

A lot of attention these days is being given to the fact that the mega-cap S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) are printing all-time highs almost on a daily basis. Yet slowly but surely, there is some clearing of the clouds for mid-cap and small-cap stocks. While we need more confirmation (and a couple of weeks of relative strength versus the "500" is certainly not enough), there is a glimmer of sunshine through the stormy clouds.

Stocks rose on Friday morning, led by the Technology sector, though investors remained concerned about prospects for slower economic growth and the impact of the Delta variant. On the earnings front, Deere posted solid fiscal 3Q results and raised its full-year guidance, though the shares fell on concerns about rising costs and supply-chain issues. The Dow rose 0.6%, the S&P 0.6%, and the Nasdaq 0.7%. Crude oil traded near $63 per barrel, while gold rose $2 to $1785 per ounce.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.