Research Reports

We are raising our intermediate-term technical outlook back to bullish from neutral. After breaking out of a bullish cup formation on February 1, and above chart resistance from the prior highs at 4,100, the S&P 500 (SPX) pulled right back to that level on Monday and again on an intraday basis on Tuesday. The index also fell right to short-term trendline support off the lows since January 20. The result was a picture-perfect bullish backtest of support and a very strong bounce.

After two down days, the S&P 500 (SPX) has fallen to a fairly important area in the near term, namely the 4,100 level. Short-term trading is filled with intricacies. But we are not (and never will be) short-term traders, using a myriad of charts and multiple computer screens that must be watched constantly.

So far this year, the Dow is up about 2%, the S&P is higher by around 8%, and the Nasdaq is up some 15%. That has caught the attention of investors who suffered through a very difficult 2022. Also so far this year, insider sentiment, gleaned from weekly data compiled by Vickers Stock Research, had not offered any indication that stock prices were out over their skis. But the most recent data from Vickers has caught our attention, and suggests a little consolidation may be in order.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

The current volume of insider transactions remains the primary issue when considering current insider sentiment. As is always the case when earnings season in full swing, insiders are broadly prohibited from trading and, as such, there are few transactions and therefore few meaningful signals about insider sentiment. But even with less sentiment inputs, the weekly data from Vickers Stock Research does reflect trends -- and current trends ring no alarms.

Monday Tee Up: Data Hat Trick Includes the Fed, Jobs, and Earnings

On Thursday, the S&P 500 (SPX) cleared its bear-market trendline, which has been in place since early January 2022. We do not consider this a breakout just yet, as the SPX has retaken this key piece of resistance for only one day and by only one percent. The next important hurdle is the prior high in December at 4,100. A break of that level will officially give the index a higher high and higher low for the first time since the broader decline started.

Rapidly rising inflation 2022 knocked stocks into a bear market. While growth strategies suffered the most, value strategies also declined. Even bond prices were lower last year. Volatility, which has dropped from the highs of 2020, still has not returned to pre-COVID levels. Is it time for investors to cash in their chips? We note that investors exit the stock market at their own peril, as long-term returns from equities consistently have outpaced long-term returns from other asset classes, such as fixed income and cash. As well, those fixed-income returns are from eras when the 10-year Treasury bond yield was much higher than the current 3.5% level. So what's a potential equity strategy for investors amid all the uncertainty? Argus believes that Min Vol is an all-weather strategy that is timely in any investing climate.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

At the beginning of any year, there are always many moving parts for investors -- including corporate insiders. Of late, investors have positioned themselves for the end of a very tough 2022 and established themselves for what most hope is a better 2023. They have also considered earnings season; the war in Ukraine; inflation; the status of the supply chain; a relentlessly hawkish Fed; the state of crypto; and on and on. Some of those issues are 'improving' or look to get better soon; some are not; and some are anyone's guess.

Over the six trading sessions ended January 13, the S&P 500 (SPX) tacked on 5%, while both the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 were up over 7%. The S&P MidCap 400 was up 6.3% and the Russell 2000 popped 7.7%. The NYSE, as well as mid- and small-cap indices, are opening up some distance from their 200-day averages (a good sign), while the '500' closed 18 points above its 200-day (good, not enough to declare a breakout). The next two key pieces of resistance for the '500' are the bear-market trendline (which comes in at 4,035 when looking out a week) and the December high (at 4,100).

Stocks fell on Tuesday morning as investors weighed more earnings reports from major banks. Morgan Stanley shares rose 6%, despite mixed results, as strength in the company's wealth management business offset weakness in investment banking. On the negative side, Goldman Sachs fell 7% after reporting much weaker than expected 4Q results. The Dow fell 1.0%, the S&P 0.2%, and the Nasdaq 0.1%. Crude oil rose slightly to $80 per barrel, while gold fell $8 to $1913 per ounce.

Argus has published its latest Portfolio Selector, which features its popular Focus List. Each month, Director of Research Jim Kelleher, CFA, surveys the team of Argus Research industry analysts for their timeliest recommendations out of the company's fundamental universe of approximately 500 stocks. The Focus List typically includes 30 stocks: turnover is high, as Jim typically adds three or four new stocks per month. Below are the latest additions, all of which are rated BUY at Argus.

Weekly Tee Up: Earnings, Inflation, Housing, Fedspeak