Stocks were mixed on Monday morning amid a new round of first-quarter earnings reports and weaker-than-expected manufacturing and construction data. The Institute for Supply Management said that its factory index fell to 60.7 in April, down from 64.7 in March and below the Reuters consensus forecast of 65.0. Meanwhile, the Commerce Department said that U.S. construction spending rose 0.2% in March, up from a 0.6% decline in February but well below the consensus forecast calling for 1.9% growth. The Dow rose 0.9%, the S&P rose 0.3%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.5%. Crude oil traded near $64.50 per barrel, while gold jumped $27 to $1795 per ounce.

Stocks kept the momentum going in April, and are now up almost 12%, including dividends, in the year-to-date. Our analysts have been progressing through earnings season, and have come across many stocks in coverage that have approached target prices. We set target prices through our valuation framework, which includes analysis of historical multiples, peer multiples, future dividends, and cash flows. After adjusting the models for the latest earnings and dividend information -- most of which has been good -- here are some of the stocks on which we have raised target prices over the past month. All stocks are rated BUY at Argus.

Stocks recovered from midday losses on Thursday afternoon, led by the Communication Services and Financial sectors. Facebook shares rose more than 7% after the company posted much better than expected 1Q sales and earnings, along with an increase in daily active users. On the economic front, the Commerce Department reported that U.S. GDP rose at a 6.4% annualized rate in the first quarter, above the consensus forecast of 6.1%. First-time jobless claims fell to 553,000 for the week ended April 24, down from a revised 566,000 a week earlier but above the consensus forecast of 540,000. Continuing claims rose to 3.66 million, up from 3.65 million a week earlier. The Dow rose 0.71%, the S&P 0.68%, and the Nasdaq 0.22%. Crude oil traded near $65 per barrel, while gold fell slightly to $1773 per ounce.

Stocks were little changed on Thursday morning following new employment and housing market data. The Labor Department said that first-time claims for state unemployment benefits fell to 547,000 for the week ended April 17, down from 586,000 a week earlier and below the Bloomberg consensus forecast of 610,000. The National Association of Realtors said that existing home sales fell 3.7% to an annualized 6.01 million in March. The reading was the weakest since August 2020 and below the consensus forecast of 6.19 million. The Dow fell 0.2%, the S&P was flat, and the Nasdaq rose 0.2%. Crude oil fell slightly to $61 per barrel, while gold traded near $1787 per ounce.

In a recent article on margin buying, The Wall Street Journal reported that as of late February, investors had borrowed a record $814 billion against their portfolios. That's up 49% year-over-year. And it's not just the YOLO crowd on WallStreetBets with their 'diamond hands' holding GME. The collapse of Archegos Capital Management shows that even institutional pros can get overextended with quickly disastrous consequences.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

Stocks erased morning losses to close higher on Thursday. The energy sector was the worst performer and tech shares also lagged. On the employment front, the Labor Department said that first-time claims for state unemployment benefits fell to 684,000 for the week ended March 20, down from 781,000 a week earlier and below the Bloomberg consensus forecast of 730,000. This was the lowest number since before the pandemic. The GDP increased at an annual rate of 4.3% according to the third estimate, up from the second estimate of 4.1%. Fed Chair Jerome Powell reiterated that the Fed is committed to targeting 2% average inflation rate. The Dow rose 0.6%, the S&P 0.5%, and the Nasdaq 0.1%. Crude oil settled at $58 per barrel, while gold fell nearly $8 to $1725 per ounce.

Stocks were mixed on Friday morning after paring early losses, with gains in the Communication Services and Energy sectors and declines in Financials. On the earnings front, FedEx shares rose more than 6% after the company posted strong fiscal 3Q results and issued better-than-expected full-year EPS guidance. Nike shares fell 4% after the company missed the consensus sales forecast for fiscal 3Q. The Dow fell 0.5%, the S&P fell 0.1%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.6%. Crude oil traded near $60.50 per barrel, while gold rose $1 to $1734 per ounce.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

Stocks fluctuated on Thursday in choppy trading as investors weighed weekly employment data, a continued decline in new U.S. coronavirus cases, and a warning from President Biden about challenges from China. The Labor Department reported that both first-time and continuing unemployment claims fell from the prior week, though both readings were above consensus forecasts. After the close, Disney posted an unexpected fiscal 1Q profit amid strong growth in Disney+ subscribers. The Dow fell 0.02%, the S&P rose 0.17%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.38%. Crude oil fell more than 1% to $58 per barrel, while gold fell $17 to $1826 per ounce.

Crude oil (both WTI and Brent) continues to recover from the devastating bear market in February and March of 2020. WTI broke out of a bull flag on February 1, 2021, and has jumped almost 8% in the past four days to $56.30/barrel. That is the highest since January of last year. Brent crude is up to almost $59/barrel after a strong four-day run, reaching its highest level since last February.

The Day Traders Strike Back: Our Monthly Survey of the Economy, Interest Rates, and Markets

Stocks sold off last week, due in part to frenzied trading in certain corners of the market, along with FOMC commentary that highlighted a slowing recovery. The general public took special note of this week's equity market drama, with Google search interest for 'stock market' at its highest levels since March 2020. Blue-chips fared slightly better than tech stocks during the slide. On Friday, The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 621 points, or 2.03%. The S&P 500 was down 1.93% and the Nasdaq Composite was down 2.00%. For the week, the DJIA fell 3.27%, the S&P 500 dropped 3.31%, and the Nasdaq Composite sunk 3.49%.

We don't often talk about market seasonality in this report. Stock-market seasonality used to be pretty consistent and was based on the four-year cycle. Why? Mostly, it had to do with the fact that the U.S. was once primarily a manufacturing economy. And within manufacturing, those doing the ordering are very susceptible to major emotional mistakes at exactly the wrong time.

Small- and mid-cap stocks (SMID stocks) surged in the past quarter. They also have outperformed large-caps over the past 12 months and may be in a better position to generate market-beating returns going forward. For one thing, SMID companies tend to focus on domestic markets, so their businesses could be poised to rebound more quickly once COVID-19 vaccines are widely distributed and the economy recovers. As well, the prices of SMID stocks are generally lower than the prices of large-caps. While SMID stocks can be risky, diversified investors look to have exposure to small- and mid-caps based on the long-term performance record. We estimate that 20%-25% of the U.S. stock market's capitalization is comprised of SMID stocks. Investors used to use a $2 billion market-cap threshold to define a small-cap stock and a $10 billion threshold for a mid-cap. We note that the Russell 2000 index now includes numerous companies with market capitalizations above $15 billion. For our purposes, we use a threshold of $20 billion to define a SMID stock.

We recently discussed the 2020 returns of indices as well as the 11 S&P 500 sectors. In no surprise, Technology, Consumer Discretionary and Communications Services dominated, while Energy (XLE), Real Estate and Financials (XLF) brought up the rear.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

We are always a bit amused when we hear that the market has "already discounted" this piece of news or that piece of news. How in the world can an analyst or strategist or portfolio manager unquestionably know something before it actually happens? In our view, it's just a guess -- sometimes educated, but other times certainly not.

The 2020 trading year is drawing to a close and the investing year has been as uncommon as the pandemic year itself. Off a February 2020 all-time high, stocks fell into a COVID-19 crash, dropping nearly 40%. Yet the bounce back has been like a super ball (well known to Boomers, perhaps making Millennials scratch their heads), with a 70% surge in the S&P 500 over the past nine months.