Stocks rose on Thursday morning, a day after the Federal Reserve signaled that it would wait for further economic recovery before paring back its $120 billion per month bond-buying program. The Commerce Department reported that the U.S. economy expanded at a 6.5% annualized rate in 2Q, up from 6.3% in 1Q, but well below the Bloomberg consensus forecast of 8.4%. The Dow rose 0.5%, the S&P 0.5%, and the Nasdaq 0.4%. Crude oil rose 1% to $73 per barrel, while gold traded near $1829 per ounce.

The Federal Reserve wraps up a two-day Open Market Committee meeting this afternoon, and Chairman Powell will participate in a press conference afterward. He is certain to be asked about Fed discussions related to the timing of asset-purchase tapering. In addition, he will no doubt comment on recent inflation trends and whether pricing pressures seemingly have peaked. The bond market is giving its own answer, as yields have come down sharply in the past few weeks, signaling inflation is less of a concern as the economy moves into a slower-growth phase in 2H21. We do not expect any changes in policy. We continue to believe the Fed will place greater emphasis on its employment mandate than on managing inflation to the 2% target. Rising long-term interest rates and the steepening yield curve hold several implications for investors. We do expect interest rates to reverse course and head higher over coming months as the global economy recovers. We note that a wider spread between short-term and long-term bonds is beneficial for most of the Financial Services sector, which we recently moved to Over-Weight.

The onset of the coronavirus in 2020 knocked the stock market into a bear market. Though stocks have recovered, the U.S. economy is about to slow down and COVID-19 cases are rising again as virus variants spread. Volatility, which has dropped from the highs of 2020, still has not returned to pre-COVID levels. Daily prices can swing wildly, as they did during two consecutive days in mid-July when the Dow Jones Industrial Average plummeted more than 1,000 points. Yet investors exit the stock market at their own peril, as long-term returns from equities consistently have outpaced long-term returns from other asset classes. Argus believes that Min Vol is an all-weather strategy that is timely in any investing climate and can deliver market-matching returns on an absolute basis and superior returns on a risk-adjusted basis over various time periods.

Stocks edged higher on Monday morning amid a new round of earnings reports and housing market data. Investors also looked ahead to the Federal Reserve's meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday. The Commerce Department said that U.S. new home sales fell 6.6% in June to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 676,000 units, below the Reuters consensus forecast of 800,000. The Dow rose 0.1%, the S&P 0.2%, and the Nasdaq 0.1%. Crude oil traded near $72 per barrel, while gold fell $3 to $1799 per ounce.

The stock market moved higher last week as the market digested a busy earnings week. Tech stocks outperformed blue chips as earnings came in very strong in portions of the tech sector. During Friday's session, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 238 points, or 0.68%. The S&P 500 was up 1.01%, and the Nasdaq Composite was up 1.04%. For the week, the DJIA was up 374 points, or 1.08%, the S&P 500 was up 1.96%, and the Nasdaq Composite was up 2.84%. Year-to-date, the DJIA is up 14.56%, the S&P 500 is up 17.46%, and the Nasdaq Composite is up 15.12%.

Stocks fluctuated near breakeven on Thursday morning amid a new round of earnings reports and weekly employment data. The Labor Department said that first-time claims for state unemployment benefits rose to 419,000 for the week ended July 17, up from 368,000 a week earlier and above the consensus forecast of 350,000. The Dow fell 0.2%, the S&P was flat, and the Nasdaq rose 0.2%. Crude oil rose slightly to $71 per barrel, while gold traded near $1807 per ounce.

Stocks fell on Friday morning amid new retail sales and consumer confidence data. The Commerce Department said that U.S. retail sales rose 0.6% in June, up from a decline of 1.7% in May and above the Reuters consensus forecast, which called for a drop of 0.4%. The University of Michigan said that its consumer sentiment index fell to 80.8 in the first half of July, down from a final reading of 85.5 in June and below the consensus forecast of 86.5. The Dow, the S&P, and the Nasdaq were all down about 0.3%. Crude oil traded near $72 per barrel, while gold fell $16 to $1813 per ounce.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

Certain market sentiment indicators remain exceedingly enthusiastic. Generally, we don't pay much attention to this data, but today we'll spend some time examining the extraordinary exuberance. The real action comes from the CBOE put/call (P/C) ratios, Rydex investor data, small-trader option activity, and the AAII asset allocation to stocks.

Damon Runyon once commented that watching a yacht race is like watching grass grow. Well these days, watching changes in insider sentiment is like watching a yacht race. Indeed, overall insider sentiment remains cautious and stock indices remain at or near all-time highs.