Stocks were mostly higher on Thursday morning, a day after the Fed reiterated its pledge to keep interest rates low as the economy recovers. On the employment front, the Labor Department said that first-time claims for state unemployment benefits rose to 744,000 for the week ended April 3, up from 728,000 a week earlier and above the Bloomberg consensus forecast of 680,000. Bond yields retreated, with the yield on the 10-year Treasury falling to 1.64%. The Dow fell 0.1%, the S&P rose 0.2%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.8%. Crude oil fell 1% to $59 per barrel, while gold traded near $1758 per ounce.

The 10-year Treasury yield has soared after bottoming in March 2020. Over the past three weeks, T-yields have flattened after getting very overbought on the daily and weekly momentum charts, and also tracing out some daily negative divergences. On the daily, yields look like they might roll over after the huge move since August.

One of our many inputs for analyzing the stock market (and at one time, one of our favorites) is market sentiment. But if you read Market Movers on a regular basis, you might have noticed that we have talked about only one sentiment indicator in months. Why? Because, in general, sentiment has been off-the-charts bullish according to many indicators (put/call ratios for one), some going back to the middle of 2020. When trading, one must always use a stop-loss -- and it's no different with technical analysis: when one a tool stops working, put it aside and cut your forecasting mistakes.

The first quarter was good for stocks, as the S&P 500 increased more than 6.0%. The average stock in the Argus Fundamental Universe of Coverage advanced more than 13%, and the median stock gained 9.6%. The average BUY-rated stock increased 12%, while the average HOLD-rated stock rose 16%. Will investors continue to favor value and small-cap? Given low interest rates, we expect growth stocks to outperform over time, but think that 2021 may be the "one-in-five years" that value leads. Investors seeking value are encouraged to focus on dividends and look for yields in the 3%-4% range. For small-caps, the vaccine is encouraging as these companies typically don't have the gilt-edged balance sheets of large-caps and are more dependent on a strong U.S. economy. Small-cap valuations remain depressed despite the recent run, and this group continues to look well positioned in 2021.

One of our many inputs for analyzing the stock market (and at one time a favorite) is market sentiment. If you read Market Movers on a regular basis, you might have noticed that we have talked about only one sentiment indicator for months. Which? Bullish sentiment, which has been off the charts according to many indicators, some going back to the middle of 2020. When trading, one must always use a stop-loss. And it's no different with technical analysis. When a tool stops working, put it aside and cut your forecasting mistakes.

The stock market performed well during last week, as vaccine news and reopening news was generally positive. During Friday's session, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rallied 293 points, or 0.90%. The S&P 500 was up 0.10%, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.59%. For the week, the DJIA was up 1282 points, or 4.07%, the S&P 500 was up 2.64%, and the Nasdaq Composite was down 3.09%. Year-to-date, the DJIA is up 7.10%, the S&P 500 is up 4.99%, and the Nasdaq Composite is up 3.35%.

Stocks rose on Wednesday morning, but gave up some of their strong early gains as the session advanced. The Labor Department reported that its consumer price index rose 0.4% in February, up from 0.3% in January and in line with the Reuters consensus forecast. The increase was driven by higher gasoline prices, which rose 6.4%. Excluding food and energy, the core CPI rose just 0.1% in February after a flat reading in January. On a year-over-year basis, the core CPI fell to 1.3% in February from 1.4% in January. The Dow rose 0.9%, the S&P 0.4%, and the Nasdaq 0.1%. Crude oil traded near $64 per barrel, while gold fell $2 to $1714 per ounce.

In this space last week, we said, 'we remain on the lookout for signs that insiders have started to nibble at lower stock prices.' While we are not ready to declare 'mission accomplished' by any means, there has been some improvement this week. The benchmark NYSE/ASE One-Week Sell/Buy Ratio from Vickers Stock Research is 4.98 this week. That is an improvement from 6.93 last week and 7.12 the week before that. Vickers' Total One-Week Sell/Buy Ratio, which includes insider transactions on the Nasdaq, is at 5.97 this week, compared to 6.48 last week and 8.20 the week before that. Indeed, there has been some progress, though neutral sentiment is all the way down at 2.50.

Stocks were mixed on Thursday morning as investors weighed new employment data and awaited comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell at a Wall Street Journal conference. Mr. Powell is expected to address inflation concerns and rising bond yields, which have rattled equity markets over the last two weeks. The Labor Department said that first-time claims for state unemployment benefits rose to 745,000 for the week ended February 27, up from 736,000 a week earlier but slightly below the Bloomberg consensus forecast of 750,000. The Dow rose 0.3%, the S&P rose 0.3%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.1%. Crude oil rose $3 to $64 per barrel, while gold traded near $1716 per ounce.

Vaccine Optimism: Our Monthly Survey of the Economy, Interest Rates, and Markets

Stocks were mixed on Wednesday morning amid a new increase in bond yields and weak employment data. Payroll provider ADP said that U.S. private companies added 117,000 jobs in February, well below the Reuters consensus forecast of 177,000 and down from a revised 195,000 in January. Services activity also slowed. The Institute for Supply Management said that its services index fell to 55.3 in February from 58.7 in January and missed the consensus forecast. The Dow rose 0.4%, the S&P fell 0.1%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.6%. Crude oil traded near $61 per barrel, while gold fell $25 to $1709 per ounce.