The first quarter was good for stocks, as the S&P 500 increased more than 6.0%. The average stock in the Argus Fundamental Universe of Coverage advanced more than 13%, and the median stock gained 9.6%. The average BUY-rated stock increased 12%, while the average HOLD-rated stock rose 16%. Will investors continue to favor value and small-cap? Given low interest rates, we expect growth stocks to outperform over time, but think that 2021 may be the "one-in-five years" that value leads. Investors seeking value are encouraged to focus on dividends and look for yields in the 3%-4% range. For small-caps, the vaccine is encouraging as these companies typically don't have the gilt-edged balance sheets of large-caps and are more dependent on a strong U.S. economy. Small-cap valuations remain depressed despite the recent run, and this group continues to look well positioned in 2021.

Recent insider sentiment has trended for the better one week and for the worse the next. In our weekly review of insider-transaction data from Vickers' Stock Research this week, there is improvement. Vickers' benchmark NYSE/ASE One-Week Sell/Buy Ratio is now 5.18, better by 147 basis points (bps) since last week -- but nowhere near the 2.50 reading that would move the indicator to neutral from the current bearish result. The NYSE/ASE Eight-Week reading is now 5.73, better by 17 bps since last week. Adding insider transactions from the Nasdaq, Vickers' Total One-Week Sell/Buy Ratio is now 5.62, an improvement of 85 bps, and the Total Eight-Week Sell/Buy Ratio is 6.23, better by 25 bps. Looking at sales and purchase transaction volume, we note that the total number of sales transactions that met the criteria for inclusion in Vickers' Weekly Insider Report this week is down by 6% since last week. The total number of purchase transactions is up by 8%. NYSE sales transactions are down 14% and purchase transactions are up by 4%. Nasdaq sales transactions are down 1% and purchase transactions are up 5%.

One of our many inputs for analyzing the stock market (and at one time a favorite) is market sentiment. If you read Market Movers on a regular basis, you might have noticed that we have talked about only one sentiment indicator for months. Which? Bullish sentiment, which has been off the charts according to many indicators, some going back to the middle of 2020. When trading, one must always use a stop-loss. And it's no different with technical analysis. When a tool stops working, put it aside and cut your forecasting mistakes.