As we have pointed out several times of late, 2021 has not been close to normal. One of the biggest surprises has been that 2021 appears to be "The Year of Retail." We're not talking about the online world dominated by Amazon, but rather the tried-and-true brick-and-mortar retail world that not long ago seemed to be going under. But by now, most companies in the space have shifted to online sales -- and, so far, the market seems to think these firms may have a chance.

Stocks rose on Wednesday morning as investors weighed a new round of 1Q earnings reports. Netflix shares fell more than 7%, despite above-consensus sales and earnings, after the company missed its subscriber acquisition target. Subscriber additions were also down from the prior year. Verizon posted better-than-expected first-quarter earnings but also saw a sharp decline in wireless subscribers. VZ shares fell slightly following the report. The Dow rose 0.5%, the S&P 0.5%, and the Nasdaq 0.6%. Crude oil traded near $62 per barrel, while gold rose $14 to $1793 per ounce.

Last week, we talked about short- to long-term bonds based on a daily chart analysis. Stepping back (always good to do now and then) and looking at a monthly chart, we note with awe the (we think) longest bull market in history. Interestingly, Treasury yields tend to move in very long cycles, with the prior run-up in yields lasting from 1946 to 1981 -- when the 10-year rose from about 2% to 16%.

The Portfolio Selector features the Argus Focus List, a group of 30 "best idea" stocks generated and regularly updated by Argus' analysts and investment policy committee. It also includes the director of research’s monthly investment strategy column, stock recommendations and sector picks, economic forecasts, and an asset allocation model. This month, the Focus List additions are Dell Technologies Inc (DELL); Weyerhaeuser Co. (WY); EBay Inc. (EBAY); Southwest Airlines Co (LUV) and the Focus List deletions are Williams-Sonoma, Inc. (WSM); Dominos Pizza Inc (DPZ); Texas Instruments Inc. (TXN); AGNC Investment Corp (AGNC).

Last week, insider-transaction data from Vickers Stock Research gave us the first hint of a thawing in what had been very cautious insider sentiment. This week, that trend continues -- though, like last week, the volume of insider transactions is low (as earnings season is gearing up and corporate executives, directors and beneficial owners are broadly restricted from trading).

The first quarter was good for stocks, as the S&P 500 increased more than 6.0%. The average stock in the Argus Fundamental Universe of Coverage advanced more than 13%, and the median stock gained 9.6%. The average BUY-rated stock increased 12%, while the average HOLD-rated stock rose 16%. Will investors continue to favor value and small-cap? Given low interest rates, we expect growth stocks to outperform over time, but think that 2021 may be the "one-in-five years" that value leads. Investors seeking value are encouraged to focus on dividends and look for yields in the 3%-4% range. For small-caps, the vaccine is encouraging as these companies typically don't have the gilt-edged balance sheets of large-caps and are more dependent on a strong U.S. economy. Small-cap valuations remain depressed despite the recent run, and this group continues to look well positioned in 2021.