Stocks were largely flat on Wednesday morning as investors weighed mixed earnings reports and awaited the Federal Reserve's policy announcement this afternoon. Boeing shares fell following a wider-than-expected first-quarter loss, though the company also reported a strong increase in aircraft deliveries. Microsoft shares also fell despite better-than-expected sales and earnings. The Dow fell 0.3%, the S&P rose 0.1%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.2%. Crude oil traded near $64 per barrel, while gold fell $6 to $1773 per ounce.

When the investing environment is potentially undergoing a major trend change, investors find themselves deciding if good news is good or bad, and if bad news is bad or good. The current major trend change encompassing the investing environment is the rise in interest rates; and the good news/bad news event was the February nonfarm payrolls report.

Vickers Stock Research, a subsidiary of Argus Research Group, tracks and analyzes insider trading and institutional ownership trends. Form 13-Fs are due 45 days after the end of calendar quarters, and are now coming in from 4Q20. We review the 13Fs of the major activist investors, including Carl Icahn, Trian Fund Management, Jana Partners, and ValueAct Holdings, among others. Activist investing has evolved and is now less about generating a short-term return on an underpriced stock and more about achieving long-term returns through an active management/investor partnership. Here are some recent new purchases and key holdings of activist investors, according to Vickers.

The stock market rallied last week, beginning February on a strong note. Tech stocks outperformed blue chips on strong earnings from a handful of megacap technology companies. On Friday, The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.30%, the S&P 500 0.39%, and the Nasdaq Composite 0.57%. For the week, the DJIA climbed 3.89%, the S&P 500 4.65%, and the Nasdaq 6.01%.

Vickers Stock Research, a subsidiary of Argus Research Group, tracks and analyzes insider trading and institutional ownership trends. Form 13-Fs are due 45 days after the end of calendar quarters, and have been processed for 3Q20. We like to review the 13Fs of the major activist investors, including Carl Icahn, Trian Fund Management, Jana Partners and ValueAct Holdings, among others. Activist investing has evolved in recent years and is now less about generating a short-term return on an underpriced stock and more about achieving long-term returns through an active management/investor partnership. Here are some recent new purchases and key holdings of Activist investors, according to Vickers.

The first day of trading in December reversed some of the selling on November's last day, returning major indices to levels at or near all-time highs. When indices are making new highs, it stands to reason that many stocks are also at or near all-time-high levels. Yet that's not an ironclad guarantee.

Into the Home Stretch: Our Monthly Survey of the Economy, Interest Rates, and Markets

The trade wars had hammered commodities during 2018-2019, and then the coronavirus piled. But since the lows of April, commodity prices generally have been rising. Copper prices were down 28% in April from 2018 highs as construction stalled, but have since recovered 33%. Oil prices plunged more than 70% in April from year-end 2019, but have lately more than doubled. Meanwhile, soybean prices have remained relatively steady and the price of gold has surged as investors have fled riskier assets. Commodities investors are accustomed to volatility. Pre-pandemic, the last time the commodities market bottomed was in January 2016. But recoveries tend to be sharp. We think underlying long-term economic fundamentals are favorable for most commodities (except oil), but project ongoing volatility from the virus. A stable or falling dollar would help. Yet risk remains high and our sector recommendation to the Basic Materials group is Market-Weight. The current market weighting of the sector is 2.4%, and we think investors should consider exposure of 2%-3% in diversified portfolios.

As earnings season moves towards completion, the volume of insider transactions is returning to normal, lending increased significance to the proprietary sentiment indicators from Vickers Stock Research. For three consecutive weeks during the heart of earnings, insiders turned bearish in a manner that exceeded the norm for that time on the calendar. During the bearish turn, the DJIA moved from 28,586 (close on 10/12/20) down to 26,501 (close on 11/2/20). Insiders then became bullish -- and one week later, the DJIA was back up to 28,323 (close on 11/6/20). So what gives this week?

Dividends are supposed to lend stability to a portfolio. However, U.S.-based equity income investors have experienced a high degree of volatility in recent years. In our view, investing in international income stocks is one way to increase portfolio diversification while reducing sensitivity to volatile U.S interest rates. Investing in overseas stocks carries its own set of risks, including the impact of currency exchange and geopolitical turmoil. But there are also a number of positives in this segment for U.S. investors. One is a more robust selection of high-quality names. Yields also tend to be higher in overseas markets in general. And finally, valuations can be more attractive.

Dividends are supposed to lend stability to a portfolio. However, U.S.-based equity income investors have experienced a high degree of volatility in recent years. In 2018, the U.S. Federal Reserve embarked on an aggressive campaign to raise interest rates, causing Treasury yields to swoop and dive, resulting in a wild ride for supposedly stable U.S. high-income equities. The central bank reversed course in 2019, before moving to the sidelines. In 2020, due to the coronavirus, the Fed is back in action, cutting rates, backstopping numerous financial markets and pledging to do "whatever it takes" and "for as long as necessary." Also due to COVID-19, many U.S. companies have cut back or eliminated their dividends in order to preserve capital during the pandemic. The endless speculation over the timing of the Fed's next moves has created market-timing headaches for equity income investors. They have endured wide swings in prices for rate-sensitive equity classes such as Utilities, REITs and MLPs -- even as generally positive industry fundamentals remained largely intact. In our view, investing in international income stocks is one way to increase diversity of holdings while reducing sensitivity to the Fed's head fakes on rate policy. Investing in overseas stocks carries its own set of risks, such as currency exchange and even the potential for geo-political turmoil. But there are also lots of positives in this asset class for U.S. investors, including a wide selection, robust industry diversification, higher yields and lower valuations. Argus has boosted its global coverage, adding the following BUY-rated international dividend stocks.

So far, the major indices (S&P 500, Nasdaq, Nasdaq 100) have seen only minor technical damage, with most of them finding support from their respective 50-day moving averages last week. Yet the attempted bounces have been weak, running out of gas at their 10-day simple and 21-day exponential averages. All the indices have broken their uptrends off the secondary low from early April.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Mid Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. The market capitalization range for U.S. mid-caps typically falls between $1 billion and $8 billion and represents 20% of the total capitalization of the U.S. equity market.

Corporate insiders have come out of earnings season in a neutral mood. As major stock indices flirt with new highs, corporate executives, directors and beneficial owners are not dumping shares; but neither are they loading up in a manner that suggests significant additional gains for stocks. As such, the current batch of insider-sentiment data from Vickers Stock Research creates little concern this week, though a drill-down does reveal an item of interest.

Stocks rose on Wednesday morning, rebounding from a late-day selloff on Tuesday despite the continued fiscal stimulus stalemate in Washington. The Labor Department reported that consumer prices rose 0.6% in July, unchanged from the prior month but above the Reuters consensus forecast of 0.3% growth. Prices also rose 1.0% from the prior year, above the consensus of 0.8%. Moderna shares rose on news that the company had won a $1.5 billion vaccine supply contract with the U.S. government. The Dow rose 1.0%, the S&P 1.3%, and the Nasdaq 2.0%. Crude oil traded near $42 per barrel, while gold rose $3 to $1949 per ounce.