Stocks rose on Friday morning, adding to Thursday's gains, amid cautious optimism about an eventual fiscal stimulus deal in Washington. The positive sentiment also reflected diminishing prospects for a contested presidential election, as Joe Biden continued to widen his lead in both national and swing state polls. The Dow rose 0.4%, the S&P 0.6%, and the Nasdaq 1.0%. Crude oil fell slightly to about $41 per barrel, while gold rose $39 to $1934 per ounce.

September, a historically tough month, lived up to its billing in 2020. Major indices all lost ground, with the leaders for 2020 getting hit the hardest. Energy and Financials, two consistent themes, were weak once again. Results could have been worse, as late-month strength cut some of the losses.

Core prices are starting to increase, though we don't think the U.S. Federal Reserve is too worried. Currently, the central bank is busy backstopping mortgage markets, money-market mutual funds, small businesses, mid-sized businesses, corporate debt, and some state and local governments. There's probably more, but it is hard to keep track. The total bill? Let's just say the central bank is likely to more than double the $4.1 trillion in assets that were on its balance sheet at year-end 2019 (the current total is $7.1 trillion). Meanwhile, most inflation measures remain below the Fed's target of 2.0%, though on average they are up month-over-month. We track 14 inflation measures on a monthly basis. On average, they are indicating that prices are rising at a 0.1% rate, ahead of last month's reading, which was deflationary at -0.8%. Looking at core inflation -- which we obtain by averaging Core CPI, market-based PCE Ex-Food & Energy and the 10-year TIPs Breakeven Interest Rate -- our reading is 1.7%, up slightly from 1.4% last month (but still low). With this inflation backdrop, we expect the Fed will focus on other issues and keep short-term rates close to zero until at least 2022.

After trading sideways in a very tight range during the summer, crude oil (WTI) has rolled over a bit. We thought this tight action was bullish, after WTI made an incredible recovery from an intraday low of $6.50/barrel on April 21. The absence of a pullback after a massive recovery looked like it was setting up for another run to the upside. Not so fast!

Stocks rose on Monday morning amid acquisition announcements from Oracle and TikTok, Nvidia and SoftBank's Arm Limited business and Gilead and Immunomedics. In addition, AstraZeneca announced that the COVID-19 vaccine trials had resumed. The Dow rose 1.4%, the S&P 1.6%, and the Nasdaq rose 2.0%. Crude oil traded near $37 per barrel, while gold rose $19 to $1967 per ounce.

Stocks were mixed on Thursday morning. On the employment front, the Labor Department said that initial claims for state unemployment benefits totaled 884,000 in the week ended September 5, in line with a week earlier. Last week's unemployment claims were revised up to 884,000 from the 881,000 that was previously reported. The Dow fell 0.2%, the S&P 0.2%, while the Nasdaq rose 0.3%. Crude oil fell to $37.79 per barrel, while gold rose $13 to $1968 per ounce.

The 2Q20 EPS season is in the record books, and the results were not pretty. Through late August, Refinitiv reported that S&P 500 earnings declined at a 30.5% rate. The Industrial and Energy groups were the weakest performers, while the defensive Utilities and Healthcare sectors were the strongest, up in the mid-single digits. The Tech sector's earnings increased 3%. Our analysts are always on the lookout for companies that raise their outlooks during earnings season. Management's ability to "raise guidance" can often be a catalyst to strong returns in the quarters ahead. There were not many in this most-recent period. Here are 12 BUY-rated companies in Argus Coverage for which management has raised guidance or increased its outlook during the recent EPS reporting season.

The S&P 500 is on track to wrap its best August since 1986. Already up 7.0% for August 2020, the index is just behind its August 1986 gain of 7.1%. Investors everywhere are touting 1986's epic performance; fewer have mentioned that in September 1986, the index slumped 8.5%.

This edition features an upgrade for Workday's moat; U.S.-China's continuing tech war; what will be needed to get past the pandemic; and notes from Salesforce.com, Nordstrom, and new coverage Bio-Rad.

Stocks rose on Thursday morning after the Federal Reserve announced a new strategy that will focus on keeping unemployment low and allow for higher inflation - above its 2% target - and lower interest rates over an extended period. The announcement came as first-time unemployment claims of 1.006 million remained above the 1 million mark for the second straight week, and continuing claims topped 14 million. The Dow rose 0.9%, the S&P 0.5%, and the Nasdaq 0.3%. Crude oil fell to $43 per barrel, while gold fell $17 to $1936 per ounce.

Stocks rallied in the trading week ended August 21 on strong economic data, capped by a blowout report on existing-home sales for July. PMI reports from IHS Markit also showed strength in both manufacturing and non-manufacturing. Stocks moved to new highs even though Congress failed to act on a second round of stimulus, widely seen as needed for those who lost supplemental federal unemployment benefits late in July.

Stocks rose on Monday morning after the FDA granted emergency approval for the use of antibody-rich blood plasma as a treatment for severely ill coronavirus patients. However, the World Health Organization questioned the approval, citing 'low-quality' evidence for plasma as an effective treatment. Other reports said that the White House was also considering the emergency approval of AstraZeneca's experimental COVID-19 vaccine ahead of the November 3 election - but before the completion of Phase 3 trials. The Dow rose 0.9%, the S&P 0.7%, and the Nasdaq 0.3%. Crude oil traded near $42.50 per barrel, while gold rose $4 to $1951 per ounce.

Stocks rallied last week on strong economic data, capped by a blowout report on existing-home sales for July. PMI reports from IHS Markit also showed strength in both manufacturing and non-manufacturing. Stocks moved to new highs even though Congress failed to act on a second round of stimulus, widely seen as needed for those who lost supplemental federal unemployment benefits late in July.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.