This could be an important week for the stock market as the major indices, especially the Nasdaq and the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), look like they are starting to roll over. In addition, we have seen four distribution days on the QQQ since early March. According to Investor's Business Daily, four or five distribution days within a 25-day period suggest institutional selling and, many times, a sign of at least an intermediate-term top.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

Monday Tee Up: Back to Inflation

The S&P 500 (SPX) has closed above 5,000. Now what? While forecasting is never easy, it is particularly difficult at this juncture as the major indices continue to ignore overbought momentum and breadth signals, bearish momentum and breadth divergences, and market sentiment that is scorchingly hot. But we will get that pullback, as we always do. And that brings up another question. Will the decline be shallow (a few percentage points) and then morph into more of the crawl-higher lockout rally? Or will the retracement be in the 7%-10% area, shake the confidence of some, and bring bears out of hiding?

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

The stock market blasted off late last week, propelling the S&P 500 to an all-time high (ATH) of 4,840. It has been a long recovery (over two years) for the index, as its last ATH was on January 3, 2022. The Nasdaq 100 and the S&P 100 beat the "500" to new highs, while the S&P 400 is close. The Nasdaq and the NYSE still have work to do to puncture their ATHs from late 2021 and early 2022. The Russell 2000 and S&P 600 are nowhere near all-time highs.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

Major stock indices squeaked out a gain last week, making it six straight winning weeks. The S&P 500 (SPX) made a minor new recovery high, landing above the July 31 closing high on both December 1 and December 8. While we still do not consider this an official breakout (as price has exceeded the July high by only 15 points), the chart formation looks bullish. The SPX has traced out a large "V" bottom for more than four months, as well as a smaller inverse head-and-shoulders (H&S).

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

Equities have sent confusing and contradictory signals throughout a back-and-forth 2023. Since setting year-highs at the end of July, the S&P 500 has mainly moved lower. During various attempted recovery spurts, the one thing that has been consistently lacking has been breadth. A handful of AI superhero stocks cannot carry the market, and narrow recovery tries are doomed to fail, in our view.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

We've studied insider sentiment and insider transactions for many years. And while there are significant nuances in play when digging deep into this data, the big picture items are not overly surprising. In particular, we find the greatest value in insider-sentiment gauges when corporate executives, directors, and beneficial owners are aligned across multiple timeframes, all stock exchanges, and all sectors. Further, when insiders are aligned in that manner and are acting in a contrarian fashion to 'other' investors, we get very interested. But that is just not the case right now.

Many equity indices are sitting right on a precipice, making price action this week very important. The major indices all have fallen for three consecutive weeks, with the S&P 500 (SPX) off 4%, the Nasdaq losing 6%, and the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) down 5%. As well, the S&P 400 has given back 6.5% and the Russell 2000 has returned 7.4%.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

Most stock indices registered solid gains on Wednesday. Going into NVIDIA's (NVDA) important EPS report, Technology (XLK) popped 2.5% and again was led by semiconductors. The VanEck Semi ETF (SMH), the iShares Semi ETF (SOXX), and the SPDR S&P Semi ETF (XSD), all rose 2% to 2.3%. Internet stocks led Communication Services (XLC), with a broad list of mega-caps contributing to the advance. After the close, NVDA beat the stock pushed higher.

Monday Tee Up: Will CPI Have a Two- or a Three-Handle?

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

The stock market sometimes gives a warning after a large move higher, gets everyone believing that a pullback has finally arrived, and then regroups for a couple of days before the rug is pulled out yet again. Last Thursday, we saw a pretty ugly reversal in the major indices that looked like the start of a much-anticipated reset. That was not to be, as the market likes to suck in the last sidelined dollar before it rolls over.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

The S&P 500 rose 1.5% on June 2, closing at its highest level since August 18, 2022, and breaking resistance near 4,200. The index was led by 2023 laggards Basic Materials (XLB), Energy (XLE), Industrials (XLI), Financials (XLF), and Real Estate (XLRE) -- so perhaps some of the reversion to the mean we recently discussed is starting to gain some traction. Strength was also seen in Consumer Discretionary, a 2023 leader.

In recent commentaries, we talked about the outperformance of the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) and noted that the ETF was running straight into a key area of potential resistance. We also talked about the disparity of individual stock returns and the potential for some reversion to the mean.

Stocks fell on Monday morning, giving back some of Friday's gains amid deepening debt-ceiling concerns. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen recently warned that the United States could default on its debt by June 1, sooner than initially expected, if Congress does not act. Investors also looked ahead to the April CPI report on Wednesday for signs of progress in the battle against inflation. The Dow fell 0.3%, the S&P 0.1%, and the Nasdaq 0.3%. Crude oil rose more than 2% to $73 per barrel while gold rose $7 to $2032 per ounce.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

Our list this week identifies companies that received an Argus target-price increase in April. As the stock prices of these companies approached their target prices, Argus analysts saw those prices going even higher. We are in the thick of earnings season and our analysts are scouring quarterly reports to evaluate how the companies they follow are doing. With economists busy analyzing economic data to determine whether the economy might slip into recession, companies have been attending to their businesses. Some are weathering current economic conditions better than others. The economic pressures are real - including rising interest rates, inflation, the strong dollar, and wavering consumer spending patterns. These stressors are on top of normal competitive pressures, as companies fight to sell their products and services, outmaneuver peers, and make profits. Looking back at April, our analysts found companies where the business outlook is solid - and went through the mechanics of our valuation framework to adjust target prices upwards. Our framework includes analysis of historical multiples, peer multiples, and future dividends and cash flows. Here are the stocks on which we raised target prices in April. All are rated BUY at Argus.

Over the short term, the S&P 500 (SPX) has bounced around like a rubber ball in a small room. Since November 10, or for more than five months, the index has traded between 3,765 and 4,195. That's a range of a little more than 10%. Needless to say, the Bollinger Bands (BB) or volatility bands are getting very tight and now are only 4.4% apart. Since mid-January 2022, we have seen some big rallies when the bands have tightened to 6.7% or less -- but more often, we have seen moderate to large declines. The SPX also has traded in a wider range of 3,492 and 4,325 over the past year.

First-Quarter 2023 Market Performance & Overview

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

The stock market has gone nowhere since last May, the bond market has done little for seven months, and crude oil has been flat for the past four months. But precious metals have shone brightly. It certainly helps when the U.S. Dollar Index has been in a decline since late September and now is testing its corrective lows from earlier this year.

Monday Tee Up: Fed Rate Decision

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

Stocks fell sharply on Friday morning following more hot inflation data. The Commerce Department said that its PCE price index rose at a 5.4% annualized rate in January, up from 5.3% in December and above the consensus forecast of 4.9%. The core PCE, excluding volatile food and energy prices, rose 4.7% from the prior year, up from 4.6% growth in December and also above the consensus of 4.3%. The Dow fell 1.3%, the S&P 1.4%, and the Nasdaq 1.7%. Crude oil fell nearly 2% to $74 per barrel, while gold dropped $10.50 to $1816 per ounce.

In this edition, our coverage of Great-West gets new life, consumers can get some good buys despite inflation, travel still tops consumer wish lists, and Albertsons, Exact Sciences, and Taiwan Semiconductor.

Monday Tee Up: Inflation, Midterms, Earnings

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

Despite more signs of moderating inflation, stocks gave up most of their early gains on Thursday. The Labor Department reported an unexpected 0.5% decline in the July producer price index, the first negative reading since April 2020 at the onset of the pandemic. The data followed a positive reading on consumer prices on Wednesday, and raised prospects for more modest Fed rate hikes at upcoming meetings. On the employment front, new weekly claims for state unemployment benefits rose by 14,000 to 262,000, just below the consensus forecast. Continuing claims also rose slightly from the prior week. The Dow rose 0.08%, the S&P fell 0.07%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.58%. Crude oil rose more than 2% to $94 per barrel, while gold fell $10 to $1804 per ounce.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

The CEO of Marriott thinks it is going to be a "blockbuster" summer. Hotel bookings are up. Airfares are up (both pricewise and for bookings). As well, U.S. hotel profitability is above pre-pandemic levels for the second consecutive month, according to Smith Travel Research, and the key metrics used to judge hotel performance are higher than in the comparable period in 2019. The most-recent Average Daily Rate (ADR) measured against a range of hotel properties is $151.73, up 22% compared to the same period in 2019. Revenue per available room, or RevPAR, is $100.97, up 26%. Travel experts say that reservations are strong because of pent-up demand. Consumers are anxious to vacation and visit friends and family after two years of restrictions. Business travel also is starting to perk back up as companies are eager to see clients in-person again. We are living in a new inflationary economic environment, but consumers so far are willing to spend on leisure activities. Here are some of Argus' BUY-rated travel companies, with a few airlines, a few big hotels, and some online booking agencies. Some are these stocks are included in our model portfolios (Growth & Income, Equity Income, Growth, and Institutional).

In this edition, mainstream oil companies face a dilemma, the travel industry is showing cabin fever, pumped-up gas prices, and Unilever, Capri, and Okta.

Stocks plunged on Thursday morning, reversing Wednesday's strong Fed-driven rally. In his post-announcement press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that additional 50-basis-point rate hikes 'would be on the table,' but reassured investors that Fed officials were not discussing greater one-time hikes of 75 basis points. Mr. Powell acknowledged that inflation was 'much too high' and said that the Fed was 'moving expeditiously to bring it back down.' The Dow fell 2.6%, the S&P 3.0%, and the Nasdaq 4.1%. Crude oil rose more than 1% to $109 per barrel, while gold rose $20 to $1889 per ounce.

This edition features a roundup of analyst research on the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and Campbell, JD.com, and Guidewire.

Stocks fell again on Tuesday morning amid continued war concerns, as Russian forces moved closer to Kyiv and launched rocket attacks on civilian targets in Kharkiv, Ukraine's second-largest city. U.S. manufacturing data was positive. The Institute for Supply Management said that its national factory index rose to 58.6 in February, up from 57.6 in January and above the Reuters consensus forecast of 58.0. The Dow fell 1.7%, the S&P 1.3%, and the Nasdaq 1.2%. Crude oil jumped to more than $103 per barrel, while gold traded near $1928 per ounce.

The S&P 500 and the broad market closed a terrific week with a surge om November 5 following positive employment data. The '500' finished at yet another all-time high.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.