Stocks lost earlier gains on comments from Minneapolis Fed Reserve President Kashkari and geopolitical concerns. Mr. Kashkari noted that he expects two interest rate cuts this year, but if it possible depending on if inflation moves sideways that there will be no cuts this year. Every sector was in the red at market close. In other news, Iran has threatened to retaliate on an Israeli strike on an Iranian consulate building in Syria. The S&P 500 closed 1.2% lower, the Dow declined 1.4% and the Nasdaq lost 1.4%. Crude oil traded above $86 per barrel and gold fell $11 to $2304 per ounce.

In this edition, mining and mining commodities; what's ahead for auto dealers; and an analyst transfer for Arkema; and JD Logistics, Papa John's, and General Mills.

Monday Tee Up: Big Banks Check In

Argus has published its latest Portfolio Selector, which features its popular Focus List. Each month, Director of Research Jim Kelleher, CFA, surveys the team of Argus Research industry analysts for their timeliest recommendations out of the company's fundamental universe of approximately 500 stocks. The Focus List typically includes 30 stocks: turnover is high, as Jim typically adds three or four new stocks per month. Below are the latest additions, all of which are rated BUY at Argus.

The top-level inflation rate was steady on a year-over-year basis last month in the U.S., as most price increases appear to be easing. The rate of core inflation continued to tick lower. The CPI numbers generally were in line with expectations and our forecasts. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a 3.7% increase in overall inflation year over year through September, compared to a 3.7% rate through August and a 9.1% rate in June 2022. The core rate, excluding the impact of food and energy prices, declined slightly -- to 4.1% in September, versus 4.3% in the prior month. Month-over-month, the All-Items CPI increased 40 basis points (bps), driven by energy prices; the Core CPI increased a lesser 30 bps. Segments of the economy with stable/easing prices year-over-year included Energy Services (-3.3%), Used Cars & Trucks (-8.0%), and Medical Care Services (-2.6%). Inflation rates continue to be propped up by Transportation Services (9.1% YoY) and Shelter (7.2%). These items have stickier prices, though we note growth rates declined compared to last month's readings. We continue to think the June 2022 CPI rate was the peak reading for the index this cycle, as the housing market cools, supplies of new vehicles are replenished, and the price of oil stays below $90 per barrel. The Fed has lifted the feds fund rate from 0.0% to above 5.25% over the past 18 months, and the rate hikes appear to be reducing inflationary pressures. Concern remains that the rapid rate of increases will tip the economy into a recession as inflation continues to head toward 2.0%.

The Portfolio Selector features the Argus Focus List, a group of 30 "best idea" stocks generated and regularly updated by Argus' analysts and investment policy committee. It also includes the director of research’s monthly investment strategy column, stock recommendations and sector picks, economic forecasts, and an asset allocation model. This month, the Focus List additions are MongoDB Inc (MDB); General Mills, Inc. (GIS); Unitedhealth Group Inc (UNH); TJX Companies, Inc. (TJX) and the Focus List deletions are Merck & Co Inc (MRK); J.M. Smucker Co. (SJM); Splunk Inc (SPLK); Ulta Beauty Inc (ULTA).

Stocks fell on Tuesday morning on continued concerns about 'higher for longer' interest rates and a looming federal government shutdown. Housing price data was stronger than expected. The Federal Housing Finance Agency said that home purchase prices rose 4.6% from the prior year in July, up from 3.2% in June. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller home price index also rose on a year-over-year basis in July, though the increase was a more modest 1%. Consumer confidence fell for a second straight month. The Conference Board said that its consumer confidence index fell to 103.0 in September, down from 108.7 in August and below the consensus forecast of 105.5. The Dow fell 0.8%, the S&P 1.0%, and the Nasdaq 1.1%. Crude oil rose slightly to $90 per barrel, while gold traded near $1927 per ounce.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

Treasury bond yields have been rising in recent weeks on concerns about stubbornly high inflation. Meanwhile, corporate bond yields have risen, but not as rapidly as Treasury yields, as investors remain optimistic about the potential for lower default rates. As a consequence, spreads between corporate and Treasury bond yields have narrowed. The spread between AAA-rated corporate bonds and 10-year government bonds in June was 90 basis points (bps), below the 35-year average of 123 bps and down 15 bps from May. The gap between the government 10-year bond yield and a BAA-rated bond (still investment grade) in March was 200 basis points, below the historical average spread of 231 bps and down about 15 bps from the prior month. We watch these spreads closely for several reasons. From an asset-allocation standpoint, tight corporate bond spreads signal that prices are above historical fair value, and we may look to under-weight the segment in our model portfolios. As well, from a broad market standpoint, the changes in the spreads offer clues to the bond market's view of corporate financial strength, which appears to be improving given the narrowing spreads. This is important as the economy approaches a period of slower growth.

Stocks rose on Thursday as investors weighed strong results from PepsiCo and Delta Airlines and awaited the first 2Q earnings reports from major banks on Friday. Inflation data was favorable, as both the headline and core PPI declined in June. On the employment front, first-time claims for state unemployment benefits fell by 12,000 to a seasonally adjusted 237,000 for the week ended July 8, below the Reuters consensus of 250,000. The Dow rose 0.14%, the S&P 0.85%, and the Nasdaq 1.58%. Crude oil rose 2% to $77 per barrel, while gold rose $3 to $1965 per ounce.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

Stocks were mixed on Monday morning following news that First Citizens BancShares of North Carolina would purchase Silicon Valley Bank. First Citizens will acquire SVB by granting equity appreciation rights, potentially worth up to $500 million, to the FDIC, and will also receive a credit line from the FDIC. First Citizens shares rose more than 45% following the announcement. First Republic shares also rose 17% on news that regulators would expand an emergency lending facility, giving the bank more time to strengthen its balance sheet. The Dow rose 0.4%, the S&P 0.1%, while the Nasdaq fell 0.3%. Crude oil traded near $71 per barrel, while gold fell nearly 1.5% to $1955 per ounce.

U.S. equities rose on Wednesday morning ahead of the CPI report on Thursday. Estimates are 6.4%-6.6%. The FAA computer outage caused airline stocks to fall in pre-market trading, but most have since recovered as flights resume. The Nasdaq is up 1.0%, the S&P is up 0.6%, the Dow Jones is up 0.3%. Crude oil is trading near $77 per barrel, while gold traded at $1877 per ounce.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

Stocks continued to drop on Thursday morning after hawkish comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell and prospects for additional aggressive rate hikes led to a sharp selloff on Wednesday. Following the expected 75-basis-point rate increase, Mr. Powell reiterated the Fed's commitment to bringing inflation down to its 2% target, and acknowledged that higher interest rates would cause pain for consumers and businesses. The median 'dot-plot' projection from Fed officials also indicated that the federal funds rate could rise to 4.4% by the end of the year, up from a forecast of 3.4% after the June meeting. The Dow fell 0.4%, the S&P 0.9%, and the Nasdaq 1.6%. Crude oil traded near $84 per barrel, while gold rose $2 to $1678 per ounce.

Monday Tee-Up: Inflation Data and Bank Earnings

Stocks rose on Thursday morning, led by the Technology and Basic Materials sectors. The war in Ukraine entered its second month as Western leaders, meeting in Brussels, pledged to provide equipment that would help Ukraine respond to possible chemical, biological, or nuclear attacks. The U.S. also said that it would accept 100,000 Ukrainian refugees and provide $1 billion to help European countries deal with the refugee crisis. On the economic front, S&P Global reported that its U.S. Composite PMI output index, which tracks both manufacturing and services, rose to 58.5 in March from 55.9 in February. The Dow rose 0.7%, the S&P 0.9%, and the Nasdaq 1.1%. Crude oil traded near $114 per barrel, while gold jumped $27 to $1964 per ounce.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

Stocks were mixed on Tuesday morning following new manufacturing and employment data. The Institute for Supply Management said that its manufacturing index fell to 58.7 in December, down from 61.1 in November and below the Reuters consensus forecast of 60.1. On the employment front, the Labor Department, in its monthly JOLTS report, said that U.S. job openings dropped by 529,000 to 10.6 million on the last day of November, below the consensus forecast of 11.075 million. The number of Americans quitting jobs also rose to a record 4.5 million in November. The Dow rose 0.6%, the S&P fell 0.1%, and the Nasdaq fell 1.6%. Crude oil rose more than 1% to $77 per barrel, while gold rose $16 to $1816 ounce.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

Stocks continued their rally on Thursday morning, a day after the Federal Reserve indicated that it would likely begin tapering bond purchases in November and conclude the program by mid-2022. It also suggested that it would raise interest rates next year in response to higher-than-expected inflation. On the employment front, the Labor Department said that first-time claims for state unemployment benefits rose to 351,000 for the week ended September 18, up from 335,000 a week earlier and above the consensus forecast of 320,000. The Dow rose 1.5%, the S&P 1.3%, and the Nasdaq 0.9%. Crude oil rose to nearly $73 per barrel, while gold traded near $1753 per ounce.

Stocks continued their rally on Thursday morning, a day after the Federal Reserve indicated that it would likely begin tapering bond purchases in November and conclude the program by mid-2022. It also suggested that it would raise interest rates next year in response to higher-than-expected inflation. On the employment front, the Labor Department said that first-time claims for state unemployment benefits rose to 351,000 for the week ended September 18, up from 335,000 a week earlier and above the consensus forecast of 320,000. The Dow rose 1.5%, the S&P 1.3%, and the Nasdaq 0.9%. Crude oil rose to nearly $73 per barrel, while gold traded near $1753 per ounce.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

Stocks fell on Tuesday morning, giving up some of last week's gains ahead of the release of the latest Fed meeting minutes on Wednesday. The Institute for Supply Management reported weaker-than-expected U.S. services activity in June. The ISM said that its nonmanufacturing index fell to 60.1 last month, down from 64.0 in May and below the Reuters consensus forecast of 63.5. The Dow fell 1.1%, the S&P fell 0.6%, and the Nasdaq was flat. Crude oil traded near $74 per barrel, while gold rose $24 to $1807 per ounce.

Stocks were mixed at midday on Monday ahead of the Fed meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday. The 10-year Treasury yield fell to a three-month low. The Dow fell 0.5%, the S&P fell 0.2%, and the Nasdaq was up 0.3%. Crude oil traded near $71 per barrel, while gold fell $12 to $1867 per ounce.

This edition features Ford's electric future; the funeral industry in Australia; Amazon's move to buy MGM; and notes from Toll Brothers, General Mills, and Intuit.

Stocks fell on Thursday morning for a third consecutive day, led by the Technology sector. Fed Chair Jerome Powell reiterated that the Fed is committed to targeting 2% average inflation rate. On the employment front, the Labor Department said that first-time claims for state unemployment benefits fell to 684,000 for the week ended March 20, down from 781,000 a week earlier and below the Bloomberg consensus forecast of 730,000. This was the lowest number since before the pandemic. The Dow fell 0.4%, the S&P 0.4%, and the Nasdaq 0.8%. Crude oil traded near $58 per barrel, while gold rose $3 to $1736 per ounce.

For the better part of a month, we've reviewed weekly data from Vickers Stock Research and posited that corporate executives, directors and beneficial owners clearly are not as exuberant as other investors (if major stock indices at all-times highs mean anything). Yet insiders are known for increasingly taking money off the table when stock prices move increasingly higher. So is current insider sentiment normal or of greater concern?

Stocks rose on Friday morning, recovering from early losses. The Commerce Department reported that core capital goods orders excluding aircraft rose 1.8% in August, down from 2.5% in July but above the Reuters consensus forecast of 0.5% growth. Costco posted better-than-expected fiscal 4Q results, though the shares fell on concerns about high coronavirus costs. Boeing shares rose 3% on news that the European regulatory ban on the 737 MAX jet could be lifted in November. The Dow rose 0.1%, the S&P 0.3%, and the Nasdaq 0.8%. Crude oil fell slightly to $40 per barrel, while gold traded near $1866 per ounce.

Stocks rose on Friday morning, recovering from early losses. The Commerce Department reported that core capital goods orders excluding aircraft rose 1.8% in August, down from 2.5% in July but above the Reuters consensus forecast of 0.5% growth. Costco posted better-than-expected fiscal 4Q results, though the shares fell on concerns about high coronavirus costs. Boeing shares rose 3% on news that the European regulatory ban on the 737 MAX jet could be lifted in November. The Dow rose 0.1%, the S&P 0.3%, and the Nasdaq 0.8%. Crude oil fell slightly to $40 per barrel, while gold traded near $1866 per ounce.

Stocks were mixed on Thursday morning. On the employment front, the Labor Department said that initial claims for state unemployment benefits totaled 884,000 in the week ended September 5, in line with a week earlier. Last week's unemployment claims were revised up to 884,000 from the 881,000 that was previously reported. The Dow fell 0.2%, the S&P 0.2%, while the Nasdaq rose 0.3%. Crude oil fell to $37.79 per barrel, while gold rose $13 to $1968 per ounce.

Stocks were mixed on Thursday morning. On the employment front, the Labor Department said that initial claims for state unemployment benefits totaled 884,000 in the week ended September 5, in line with a week earlier. Last week's unemployment claims were revised up to 884,000 from the 881,000 that was previously reported. The Dow fell 0.2%, the S&P 0.2%, while the Nasdaq rose 0.3%. Crude oil fell to $37.79 per barrel, while gold rose $13 to $1968 per ounce.

Stocks rose on Thursday morning following a better-than-expected June employment report. The Labor Department said that the U.S. economy added 4.8 million payroll jobs in June, up from 2.7 million in May and above the Reuters consensus forecast of 3 million. The rebound over the last two months follows a pandemic-driven plunge of 20.8 million in April. The official unemployment rate also fell to 11.1% from 13.3% in May, and was better than the consensus estimate of 12.4%. The Dow rose 0.8%, the S&P 0.8%, and the Nasdaq 0.9%. Crude oil rose to $40 per barrel, while gold traded near $1790 per ounce.