As stock prices continue to rise and the valuation band for stocks is stretched further, insider-sentiment data from Vickers Stock Research continues to show that corporate executives, directors, and beneficial owners are increasingly defensive. Is it time to run for exits? Likely no. But stock prices won't go up forever, so a sense of caution does seem to be warranted. And that is what insiders are clearly telling us.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

Rapidly rising inflation in 2022 knocked stocks into a bear market. While growth strategies suffered the most, value strategies also declined. Even bond prices were lower last year. Stocks have recovered thus far in 2023, but gains have been largely driven by only a handful of high-tech companies. Inflation remains high and the Fed continues to raise rates. Is a recession in the offing? With all the uncertainty, is it time for investors to cash in their chips? We note that investors exit the stock market at their own peril, as long-term returns from equities consistently have outpaced long-term returns from other asset classes, such as fixed income and cash. Argus believes that Min Vol is an all-weather strategy that is timely in any investing climate. Academic literature and, more to the point, returns history, indicate that Min Vol can deliver market-matching returns on an absolute basis and superior returns on a risk-adjusted basis over various time periods.

Stocks edged higher on Monday morning, extending last week's gains amid optimism about an end to Fed rate hikes. Investors weighed earnings reports from Berkshire Hathaway and Dish Network and awaited results from Disney later in the week. Tesla also announced plans to build a relatively low-cost electric car at its plant in Germany. The Dow rose 0.2%, the S&P 0.1%, and the Nasdaq 0.1%. Crude oil rose more than 1% to $81.50 per barrel while gold fell $9 to trade near $1990 per ounce.

The first-quarter earnings season has passed the halfway mark with 292 (or 58%) of S&P 500 companies having reported results through August 1. An impressive 81% of those companies exceeded earnings expectations, while the blended (actual and still to report) earnings decline is now projected at 5.9%, according to Refinitv. The Consumer Discretionary sector still leads with 36% earnings growth, while Energy is now by far the weakest sector, with a 48% profit decline. Our analysts are always on the lookout for companies that boost their outlooks during earnings season. Management's ability to "raise guidance" can often be a catalyst to market-beating returns in the quarters ahead. Here is an initial list of BUY-rated companies in Argus Coverage for which management has raised guidance or increased its outlook during the 2Q23 EPS reporting season.

Monday Tee Up: Will CPI Have a Two- or a Three-Handle?

Monday Tee Up: Is Inflation Slowing?

With a rally off the October bottom, the S&P 500 (SPX) at its February 2 high had retraced (using intraday prices) slightly more than 50% of the bear market. The NYSE Composite, the Dow Jones Industrials, (DJIA) and the S&P MidCap 400 (MDY) all have recaptured over 61.8% of their respective bear markets. At its high on February 2, the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) had seen a 38.2% retracement, while the Nasdaq Composite hasn't quite reached that minimum takeback.

On Friday morning, investors will be focused on the Labor Department's October employment report. The current Reuters consensus calls for the addition of 200,000 payroll jobs, down from 263,000 in September, and a slightly higher unemployment rate of 3.6%. Stocks fell sharply on Thursday amid continued concerns about rate hikes and a potential recession, a day after Fed Chairman Powell said that rates at the end of the cycle could be higher than previously expected. The Dow fell 0.46%, the S&P 1.06%, and the Nasdaq 1.73%. Crude oil fell more than 2% to $88 per barrel, while gold fell $18 to $1632 per ounce.

Stocks were mostly higher on Thursday morning amid more signs of moderating inflation. The Labor Department said that its producer price index for final demand fell 0.5% in July, down from a 1.0% increase in June. The reading was the first negative number since April 2020 and below the Reuters consensus forecast, which called for an increase of 0.2%. The Dow rose 0.5%, the S&P rose 0.4%, and the Nasdaq was flat. Crude oil rose 1.5% to $93.50 per barrel, while gold rose $8 to $1806 per ounce.

As we start the second half of 2022, we remain disciplined by looking at stocks and sectors in which we have confidence. Stocks took a beating in the first half, and at times like this, investing principles are critical. This week, we look at Basic Materials. This is not a flashy sector, often overlooked because other sectors garner headlines where consumers are more familiar with brand names. That's partly why we like the sector (it's under-the-radar), but that's not enough. The companies we examine within the sector have to stand on their own, with solid fundamentals and growth outlooks. Challenges in the supply chain persist, but have eased. Inflation is high and the Fed is raising interest rates to quell higher prices. In this environment, we expect demand for commodities to remain robust and for pricing to remain strong. The sector currently accounts for 2.8% of the S&P 500, and includes industries such as chemicals, paper, metals, and mining. Over the past five years, the weighting has ranged from 2% to 4%. We think investors should Over-Weight the sector and allocate 3% of diversified portfolios to stocks in the sector. Basic Materials is slightly over-performing the S&P 500 thus far in 2022, with a loss of 18.7% compared to the S&P's loss of 20.6%. Here are some of our BUY-rated Basic Materials companies, which were selected using the Argus screening tool and requiring that the stocks be BUY-rated and with an Argus Financial Strength rating of at least Medium-High. We feel these companies currently are best in class for this sector. Some of these companies also are included in our Model Portfolios.

Stocks fell on Monday morning amid continued interest rate and inflation concerns. Weak economic data in China, reflecting the impact of COVID lockdowns, also weighed on sentiment. The Chinese National Bureau of Statistics said that retail sales fell a sharp 11.1% year-over-year in April, and that factory production fell 2.9%. The Dow fell 0.4%, the S&P 0.7%, and the Nasdaq 1.2%. Crude oil rose 1% to $112 per barrel, while gold traded near $1812 per ounce.

Stocks fell again on Friday morning amid continued concerns about the deepening crisis in Ukraine and the impact of approaching Fed rate hikes. Housing data was positive. The National Association of Realtors said that U.S. existing home sales rose 6.7% in January to an annualized 6.5 million, well above the Bloomberg consensus forecast of 6.1 million. The Dow fell 0.4%, the S&P 0.5%, and the Nasdaq 1.0%. Crude oil fell to $91 per barrel, while gold traded near $1895 per ounce.

As major stock indices trade near all-time highs and the VIX volatility index rests near its lowest level since the start of the pandemic, the volume of insider transactions has risen to the highest level since early September. The snap-back in volume is not surprising given pent-up demand from the recent earnings hiatus. Furthermore, after a year of impressive returns for the stock market, executives, directors, and beneficial owners may be engaging in year-end tax planning as capital-gains issues loom large these days.

Over the weekend, the House of Representatives approved the largest public works bill since the 1950s. The bipartisan trillion-dollar bill, which was passed by the Senate in August, now goes to President Biden's desk for signing. The plan focuses on improving the country's infrastructure, from roads and bridges to water systems and electricity grids. It also targets the auto industry, with a focus on electric vehicles and charging stations. In the power sector, Biden's goal is to achieve a carbon-free power industry by 2035. To improve energy efficiency in buildings, he is looking to retrofit four million buildings in the four years. Elsewhere, business Services companies also stand to benefit; bond issuance should pick up given that the infrastructure spending plan will be financed at least in part by bonds; and payroll companies could get a boost processing more paychecks as the infrastructure plan creates "millions of good paying jobs." All-in-all, some of the companies that we think may benefit include the following.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

Stocks rose on Thursday morning following new weekly employment data. The Labor Department said that first-time claims for state unemployment benefits fell to 385,000 for the week ended July 31, down from 399,000 a week earlier but slightly above the Bloomberg consensus of 383,000. The Commerce Department reported that the U.S. trade deficit rose 6.7% to a record $75.7 billion in June, driven by a sharp increase in imports. The consensus forecast was $74.1 billion. The Dow rose 0.6%, the S&P 0.5%, and the Nasdaq 0.6%. Crude oil rose to $69 per barrel, while gold traded near $1805 per ounce.

Stocks edged higher on Wednesday morning as the yield on the 10-year Treasury fell below 1.5%, signaling reduced inflation concerns. On the earnings front, Campbell Soup shares fell nearly 6% after the company reported below-consensus fiscal 3Q results and lowered its full-year guidance. The Dow rose 0.1%, the S&P 0.2%, and the Nasdaq 0.2%. Crude oil traded near $70 per barrel, while gold fell $2 to $1893 per ounce.

President Joe Biden is preparing to announce an infrastructure-rebuilding plan that he estimates will create up to 10 million clean energy jobs. The following areas of the economy stand to benefit from the government spending, which could total as much as $4 trillion. The first element of the plan is improving the country's infrastructure, from roads and bridges to water systems and electricity grids.

Sentiment, Business Activity Remain Elevated in the New Year

Damaged but Resilient Economy Carried Stocks across 2020

Our analysis of insider sentiment for the past few weeks has offered little about which to be concerned. Generally, the insider-sentiment barometers created each week by Vickers Stock Research have been bearish -- but not to a degree that is in any way extraordinary. Insiders typically sell shares more often than they buy shares, and that is especially the case when major stock indices are at or near all-times highs (like now). So we've sat back and discounted marginally bearish sentiment. This week, we're sitting back and discounting insider sentiment again, but for a different reason.

Our analysis of insider sentiment for the past few weeks has offered little about which to be concerned. Generally, the insider-sentiment barometers created each week by Vickers Stock Research have been bearish -- but not to a degree that is in any way extraordinary. Insiders typically sell shares more often than they buy shares, and that is especially the case when major stock indices are at or near all-times highs (like now). So we've sat back and discounted marginally bearish sentiment. This week, we're sitting back and discounting insider sentiment again, but for a different reason.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite are capitalization-weighted, while the DJIA is price-weighted. That did not matter much for years. The Dow is supposed to represent the U.S.A.'s mightiest companies. But the DJIA can no longer accommodate stocks that not only carry massive market caps, but also trade at very high stock prices. GOOG and AMZN, among others, lift the Nasdaq, while the DJIA is left behind with its roster of old-line names. Situated between the high-flying Nasdaq and the stodgy Dow, the S&P 500 is a better representation of the U.S. stock market.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite are capitalization-weighted, while the DJIA is price-weighted. That did not matter much for years. The Dow is supposed to represent the U.S.A.'s mightiest companies. But the DJIA can no longer accommodate stocks that not only carry massive market caps, but also trade at very high stock prices. GOOG and AMZN, among others, lift the Nasdaq, while the DJIA is left behind with its roster of old-line names. Situated between the high-flying Nasdaq and the stodgy Dow, the S&P 500 is a better representation of the U.S. stock market.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite are capitalization-weighted, while the DJIA is price-weighted. That did not matter much for years. The Dow is supposed to represent the U.S.A.'s mightiest companies. But the DJIA can no longer accommodate stocks that not only carry massive market caps, but also trade at very high stock prices. GOOG and AMZN, among others, lift the Nasdaq, while the DJIA is left behind with its roster of old-line names. Situated between the high-flying Nasdaq and the stodgy Dow, the S&P 500 is a better representation of the U.S. stock market.

Vulcan Materials is the United States' largest producer of construction aggregates (crushed stone, sand, and gravel). Its largest markets include Alabama, Arizona, California, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, and Virginia. In 2019, Vulcan sold 215 million tons of aggregates, 13 million tons of asphalt mix, and 3 million cubic yards of ready-mix. As of Dec. 31, 2018, the company had more than 16 billion tons of aggregates reserves.

Stocks rose on Wednesday morning amid reports of new stimulus measures in China and a decline in the number of new coronavirus cases. In the U.S., the Labor Department said that its producer price index rose 0.5% in January, up from 0.2% in December and above the Reuters consensus forecast of 0.1%. On the housing front, the Commerce Department said that housing starts fell 3.6% to an annualized 1.567 million units last month, but topped the Reuters consensus forecast of 1.425 million. Building permits also rose a strong 9.2% to an annualized 1.551 million. The Dow rose 0.5%, the S&P 0.6%, and the Nasdaq 0.9%. Crude oil rose more than 1.5% to $53 per barrel, while gold rose $6 to $1610 per ounce.

Stocks rose on Wednesday morning amid reports of new stimulus measures in China and a decline in the number of new coronavirus cases. In the U.S., the Labor Department said that its producer price index rose 0.5% in January, up from 0.2% in December and above the Reuters consensus forecast of 0.1%. On the housing front, the Commerce Department said that housing starts fell 3.6% to an annualized 1.567 million units last month, but topped the Reuters consensus forecast of 1.425 million. Building permits also rose a strong 9.2% to an annualized 1.551 million. The Dow rose 0.5%, the S&P 0.6%, and the Nasdaq 0.9%. Crude oil rose more than 1.5% to $53 per barrel, while gold rose $6 to $1610 per ounce.

Our analysis of insider sentiment for the past few weeks has offered little about which to be concerned. Generally, the insider-sentiment barometers created each week by Vickers Stock Research have been bearish -- but not to a degree that is in any way extraordinary. Insiders typically sell shares more often than they buy shares, and that is especially the case when major stock indices are at or near all-times highs (like now). So we've sat back and discounted marginally bearish sentiment. This week, we're sitting back and discounting insider sentiment again, but for a different reason.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite are capitalization-weighted, while the DJIA is price-weighted. That did not matter much for years. The Dow is supposed to represent the U.S.A.'s mightiest companies. But the DJIA can no longer accommodate stocks that not only carry massive market caps, but also trade at very high stock prices. GOOG and AMZN, among others, lift the Nasdaq, while the DJIA is left behind with its roster of old-line names. Situated between the high-flying Nasdaq and the stodgy Dow, the S&P 500 is a better representation of the U.S. stock market.

Stocks rose on Wednesday morning amid reports of new stimulus measures in China and a decline in the number of new coronavirus cases. In the U.S., the Labor Department said that its producer price index rose 0.5% in January, up from 0.2% in December and above the Reuters consensus forecast of 0.1%. On the housing front, the Commerce Department said that housing starts fell 3.6% to an annualized 1.567 million units last month, but topped the Reuters consensus forecast of 1.425 million. Building permits also rose a strong 9.2% to an annualized 1.551 million. The Dow rose 0.5%, the S&P 0.6%, and the Nasdaq 0.9%. Crude oil rose more than 1.5% to $53 per barrel, while gold rose $6 to $1610 per ounce.